[BJP News]: Vajpayee as India's Thatcher

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>[bJP News]: Vajpayee as India's Thatcher

>Tue, 17 Oct 2000 08:50:33 -0400

>

>Title: Vajpayee as India's Thatcher

>Author: Chandan Mitra

>Publication: The Pioneer

>October 16, 2000

>

>Through the 80s and even the early 90s, it used to be said, `Atal Bihari

>Vajpayee is the best Prime Minister India never had'.

>

>With his NDA Government completing one year in office on October 13, even

>as he recuperates after a knee surgery, the time has come to reassess that

>remark. Although a year is not a long enough time for a political balance

>sheet to be drawn up, Mr Vajpayee has, in fact, spent an uninterrupted 31

>months in two stints as Prime Minister and that's a good enough period for

>assessing his performance.

>

>Interestingly, the comment about his being the best Prime Minister India

>never had has a patronising ring to it. The remark was usually heard in the

>cocktail circuit, generally towards the concluding part of a BJP-bashing

>session. `Right man in the wrong party' was, very often, the prelude to

>this observation. Of late, comments about Mr Vajpayee have been few and far

>between. His stature has grown immeasurably over the past couple of years

>and he has also acquired an aura of being irreplaceable, prompting Mr L K

>Advani to frequently refer to the TINA factor to buttress the argument

>regarding the NDA Government's stability.

>

>Accolades for the Vajpayee dispensation are being heard very loudly at the

>moment. The regime appears remarkably stable, despite the presence of 24

>diverse partners. A few days back, when Ms Mamata Banerjee threatened to

>rock the boat, she found to her dismay that she stood isolated within the

>alliance and even public support was not forthcoming although the issue she

>raised (ostensibly) was one on which people should have been with her.

>Nobody welcomes a price rise. But, despite their anger with the Government,

>people did not appreciate her antics for nobody seems to want this

>Government destabilised. One exception needs to be made here. Our tribe,

>namely journalists, is bored stiff with this Government. Having got used to

>the excitement of reporting regular political roller-skating since 1996,

>they find the present stability spell most lacklustre. Fortunately,

>journalists are not in a position to create or destroy Governments even if

>many believe they can.

>

>Stability, however, is not necessarily a blessing in politics. A Government

>loses a powerful excuse for its failures. Only in West Bengal has

>consistent failure been a political virtue; few leaders, Mr Vajpayee

>included, have Mr Jyoti Basu's luck.

>

>Unchallenged leadership, stable coalition, successive good monsoons, a

>reasonably growing economy, an ongoing IT revolution the Government,

>indeed, seems everything going for it. Yet, there is talk of impending

>instability. Few seem to expect the Government to last its full term till

>2004 and although speculation over the PM's health has somewhat subsided,

>opinion-makers appear convinced that the NDA Govern-ment is co-terminous

>with its Prime Minister. Even if the coalition is not rocked just now, or

>even in March next year when elections are held in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal

>and Assam, there are fears about NDA's longevity after October 2001, when

>UP goes to the polls.

>

>The worries may prove baseless. But there is little doubt that public

>support for the Government has ebbed over the 12 months that it has been in

>power. And that's despite some remarkable achievements that Mr Vajpayee has

>notched up. Why, then, are people dissatisfied with the Government although

>its leader has acquired near-cult status? The main reason is that the

>Government's policies are not regarded as people-oriented. In the vast

>heartland of India, whose residents make and unmake Governments, the regime

>is seen to be insensitive towards the underprivileged. This impression has

>been reinforced by the steep hike in the prices of kerosene and LPG, both

>essential requirements of the less privileged.

>

>The Govern-ment's strategy evidently hinges on the success of two things: A

>rapid trickle-down of economic prosperity from the upper to the lower

>echelons, and resource mobilisation through disinvestment of PSUs to fund

>the growing needs of the social sector. These are pretty much fundamental

>changes and such changes take time to materialise. The Vajpayee

>Government's endorsement by the electorate hinges on the growth of the

>Indian middle class. This segment must grow rapidly enough for the BJP-led

>alliance to overcome the inevitable resistance from those living below the

>poverty line to the economic changes under way.

>

>In a sense, this Government is a true successor to the Rajiv Gandhi and

>Narasimha Rao regimes. In fact, the BJP was right in claiming that Rao had

>hijacked their party's traditional, economic agenda. But neither the Rajiv

>nor Rao Governments had the political will to push their policies far

>enough. Just as Mr Rao grew cold feet at the 11th hour about going ahead

>with Pokhran II, he was earlier debilitated in furthering economic reforms

>by the 1993 confidence vote in Parliament which he won by means that have

>just led to his conviction. Before him, Rajiv Gandhi had the vision, but

>not the political skill to mastermind change. Although the telecom and IT

>revolutions that have happened since are a tribute to his modernising

>agenda, Rajiv himself could never politically capitalise on these.

>

>Is there something then in what Mr Advani often says, that good governance

>has nothing to do with winning elections? The problem is good governance,

>like beauty, lies in the eyes of the beholder. Many are ecstatic about the

>Vajpayee regime's successes on the economic and foreign affairs fronts. The

>same economic successes are regarded by others as being anti-poor or a

>sell-out to multinationals. This will not matter in the end if the majority

>feels it is better off under this regime than previous ones. But for that,

>Mr Vajpayee will have to create a majority that can think that way.

>

>In a way, India is undergoing a Thatcherite phase in its history. Ms

>Margaret Thatcher determinedly moved to create an ever-increasing class of

>voters with a stake in a privatised economy. Those with jobs prospered, the

>unemployed were marginalised. But in India, the unemployed outnumber the

>employed in the organised sector, while underemployment characterises the

>rural economy. In order to give people a stake in economic reforms, the

>Government will need to aggressively market its privatisation policy and

>help people use it to their benefit. For instance, the telecom revolution

>generated a new form of economic activity, namely, the privatised PCO.

>Thousands, if not millions, found jobs in a sector that was previously

>barred to entrepreneurs. The Vajpayee Government must find its equivalent

>of the private PCO if it is to reach out to rural and semi-rural India.

>

>In the ongoing IT revolution, it has a huge window of opportunity. The

>Prime Minister is alive to the serious cleavages that might be caused by

>the digital divide. In his speeches, he constantly refers to the need to

>ensure this does not happen. But a mindless bureaucracy has been known to

>upstage some of the best political initiatives. The problem, therefore,

>lies largely within. In the second year of its existence, the NDA

>Government has to turn the mirror inwards to create the necessary

>infrastructure that can facilitate change. If Mr Vajpayee fails to give

>enough stakes in the system to the upwardly mobile, newly emergent classes

>of rural India, his successes will become ephemeral, to be eulogised only

>by the very same cocktail circuit that once spoke patronisingly of him.

>

>And, he must remember, this section doesn't vote.

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