CHINA'S STRATEGIC DECISION

[Guest guest]

Editorial from The Hindu, India's National Newspaper

 

China's pledge of restraint

 

Saturday, November 25, 2000

CHINA'S STRATEGIC DECISION to desist from helping other countries to

develop ballistic missiles, which could be used to deliver nuclear

weapons, is a salutary pledge. If honoured, its beneficial spinoff

will have deep international implications. Not surprisingly,

Washington has warmly reciprocated this by viewing Beijing's new

diplomacy as a window of opportunity to advance the U.S.' global

agenda of non-proliferation. In a sense, Beijing has now impliedly

addressed New Delhi's assertive belief, too, that China has been

masterminding Pakistan's missile acquisition programme over a long

period. Speaking of ``transfers to countries that are developing

ballistic missiles'', China says that it ``will exercise special

scrutiny and caution''. The stated Chinese aim is to ``prevent

significant contributions'' to unspecified countries. However,

Pakistan, Iran and North Korea are often suspected to be the

recipients of China's missile- related munificence. Overall, the

punchline in China's statement is that the new norms will apply even

to those items not specifically covered under Beijing's existing ban

on exports. Moreover, China will ``further improve and reinforce''

its ``export control system'' now defined by its own ``missile non-

proliferation policy''. The sweeping array of commitments includes an

unprecedented ban on the export of dual-use items with military

applications. This catalogue of do's and don'ts deserves to be

commended. Resonant is the Chinese theme of restraint in eschewing

overt and clandestine support for the missile plans of any country.

Yet it is certainly not easy to devise a litmus test to assess

Beijing's sustainable good faith.

 

India cannot therefore be faulted for being guarded or even sceptical

in its own evaluation of Beijing's latest manifesto of abstinence

from missile-proliferation. New Delhi's strong suspicion about

China's past transfers of missiles or parts thereof to Pakistan has

often been confirmed by Washington's independent findings. The saga

of Pakistan's perceived acquisition of M-11 missiles or components

thereof from China sometime ago, besides perhaps the knowhow too, is

still a critical factor in India's long-term thinking on this

subject. New Delhi has already highlighted its China-related concerns

to Washington and the new entente with the United States would

probably provide a context within which strategic information,

including the China-Pakistan arms transfers, will be more easily

exchanged. Yet, more importantly, India must seek to preserve the

momentum of its strategic dialogue with China. A matter of some

positive ambience for India in this context is the American decision

to retain and enlarge its current sanctions on civilian and military

`entities' in Pakistan as also Iran that had in the past received

China's help for their missile programmes. Although Iran is not akin

to Pakistan in New Delhi's calculus, the obvious message from the

U.S. is that these two countries should clear their stables in this

sensitive sphere.

 

 

The U.S. tends to assume that its own diplomatic goading of China has

had a desirable impact. The timing of Beijing's announcement within

days of a U.S.-China summit on the sidelines of an Asia- Pacific

conference is not insignificant. Yet the question is whether China is

seeking a trade-off by promising to hold its hand over international

missile proliferation so that Washington could review its plan for a

theatre-missile defence system (TMD) in the Asia-Pacific zone. China

sees the TMD as a ploy to encircle it strategically. Moreover, China

has already hinted at making common cause with Russia in opposing the

U.S.' now- deferred plans for a national missile defence system

(NMD). As seen by Beijing, the NMD may catapult the U.S. to a new

military apogee. So, Washington's considered offer of civilian space

collaboration with China, as a reward for its good intentions on the

missile front, is a move to try and keep Beijing within bounds on its

anti-NMD front.