India and Russia-II

[Guest guest]

India and Russia-II

December 5, 2000

By Lieutenant Colonel Thakur Kuldip S Ludra (Retd.)

 

 

For Russia India is vital for not only helping her sustain her

armament industries as well as her Research and development. She also

wants Indian consumer goods, for they are comparatively cheaper, as

well as, because she has been able to impose an extremely favourable

exchange rate. A position which India has brought on her self by her

extreme poverty in both economic as well as military strength. The

Indian politician has consistently been selling India down the Ganges

just to ensure the safeguarding of his divine right to milk the

Indian exchequer and the Indian man in the street. Rajiv Gandhi in a

fit of honesty admitted that just 18% of the total planned outlay

reaches its correct destination the rest is just milked away. That

was a good fourteen tears back now not only not a single paisa

reaches its destination but today the Indian state is literally

selling her family silver just to sustain herself and her highly

corrupt minions. Punjab had to mortgage the building housing MARKFED

just to pay the salaries of her staff. Her flagship PUNWIRE is

already in the hand of the receivers, while its Managing Director cum

Chairman is enjoying his ill-gotten gains in the United States of

America where he has gone underground with more than a few Crores.

There are many more like him.

 

However it must be conceded that till such time India does become

self sufficient in her armaments Russian offer is about the best. The

Russian equipment is simple to operate, robust and modern, with the

added advantage of being readily available at rates and terms which

are comparatively favourable, thus making a deal with Russia a

bargain., especially when compared with the terms and conditions

available in the international market.

 

India and Russia are still tied by the strings of Mutual Economic

Advantage to meet their economic and military needs. Notwithstanding

the thaw in the cold war atmosphere at the super power level; and

notwithstanding the complete economic collapse of Russia, out of

which Russia has just shown signs of recovery. In fact Russia has too

strong an economic potential not to resurrect herself.

 

Even though United States of America has achieved a head start over

Russia a certain degree of economic rivalry , particularly in the

arms bazars will continue. Both these powers, while trying to cater

for any future eventualities, are bound to develop, manufacture and

sell arms. What they will try is not to get involved personally but

use proxies. China will also be doing the same. Under the

circumstances, the conditions of Mutual Economic Advantage are bound

or at least should be allowed to continue. However India will have to

ensure that she is not shackled with an unfavourable exchange rates

which she is still foisted with. It is in this context that India has

failed to look after her interests in the recent exchange protocols

when Putin visited India. Thus while the media went ga ga over the

sale of weapons systems worth more than $3 Billion to help India's

National Security no body questioned at what rate would the normal

trade of other commodities be take place. Is India going to face the

same highly inflated exchange rate in favour of the rouble, or is the

trade going to be in terms of hard currencies like the dollar?

 

On the other hand it must also be realised that Russia is now in a

corner especially with Resurgent Islam forcing her to face up to the

onslaught, possibly with the American guidance and umbrella, in

Chechnya and Dagestan, threatening her the very roots of her economy.

This oil rich area, once it slips out of her hand would mean the

signing of the doom of Russian economy. In such a case she will be

further coerced to convert her economy, particularly the weapons

industry to become export oriented. While India might benefit in

short term basis, she might well find her adversaries being equipped

with the same or similar weapons systems. Pakistan has already got

300 T-80U tanks. China has gone in for large scale of SU-27 whose

derivative SU 30 is.

 

Under the circumstances spelt out above, it is vital that India

develop her own armament industry, so that she is not dependent on

any other country. This will not only strengthen her militarily but

also save her a lot of hard earned foreign exchange and thus imp[rove

her economic status, as she would be able to export arms at a profit.

Till she reaches that capability, she should continue her economic

ties with Russia. She must build upon these ties to build up on her

armament industry, by going in for large scale collaboration, as well

as licensed production of armament, ammunition and equipment. Her

offer in the early nineties to manufacture MiG29 for Malaysia was a

step in the right direction, but eventually happened one does not

know.

 

India must also woo the Central Asian Republics. They will be good

markets for Indian produce. Besides the need for trade there would be

a need to counter Pakistani influence towards Islamic Resurgence.

 

It is in light of the above factors that one needs to evaluate

Putin's visit to India. There is no doubt that Russia needs India

just as much as India needs Russia. Both are being threatened by

Pakistan's attempts to export Islam, and use her Inter Services

Intelligence Directorate to further her own and American interests.

However to put all the eggs in Russian basket is fraught with danger.

Earlier also, while Russia has been a dependable friend, but only to

a limit, as long as that friendship did not come in the way of her

interests. The Old dictum that in the International Arena there are

just no permanent friends but only permanent interests, is as valid

today as it was yesterday and as it will be tomorrow.

 

Towards that end and particularly in view of the fact that United

States of America is The Super power, it would be foolhardy for India

to buck against American interests. As a matter of fact American

expertise and technological excellence must be tapped and used to the

optimum. To that extent India will have to fit herself into the

American scheme and America's perception of the global scheme of

things. Yet India must also keep Russia as a trump up her sleeve.