India and Russia-IV

[Guest guest]

India and Russia-IV

December 19, 2000

 

By Lieutenant Colonel Thakur Kuldip S Ludra (Retd.)

 

Then came Putin's visit to India in the first week of October 2000.

It was a

visit which was meant to, ostensibly, re-affirm the close ties that

Russia

had had with India. In real terms it was meant to be a hard sell of

Russian

hardware to India. Russia, disillusioned with the failure of the

American

led West's promises, wants to win back India's confidence which had

been

shaken when Russia reneged on her deal regarding the cryogenic

engines. It

was also wanting win back India's confidence in Russia's capability

to

ensure the smooth functioning of all her contracts. A confidence

which was

shaken when Russia's industry had collapsed and was no longer in a

position to fulfil her contracts and supply India's needs for spares

and

equipment. Russia had also the need to revive her industry both

capital as

well as armament. She also had to dispose a large surplus in

armaments

which had collected together as a result of her down sizing of her

armed

forces which she could no longer afford.

 

Russia had also a need to re-establish herself in the geo-political

arena

where she had been more or less sidelined by the collapse of Soviet

Russia

and the breaking away of her constituent republics. She had to

project her

initiative to coalesce herself, China and India into a Grand

Strategic

Triangle which would create a second force to face up to the might of

United States of America. The same initiative which had been

rejected

by

India and to a degree China earlier.

 

One has to give Russians their due. They had done their homework well

before coming to India. They knew that Indian Armed Forces were

indeed

in a dire strait. Thanks to the political executives' shenanigans,

the weapons

inventory of the armed forces was in a bad shape. The Arjun Project

had

been a failure and the Indian Armoured Forces were being starved of

tanks.

The Vijayanta production line had been wound down. The rate of

production of T-72s was nowhere near enough to meet the requirements

of

the Indian Army. Pakistan had acquired 300 T 80Us from Ukraine. The

Pakistani production of Khalid had also picked up, while China was

in

a

position to supply Pakistan her latest T-89s. It was on the cards

that

Pakistan would be raising one more Strike Corps, the Army Reserve

Centre

with the induction of new tanks which would help her raise one more

armoured division. On India's Northern Frontiers China was already

well

on her way of her Four Modernisations which included her Armed

Forces.

 

The Indian Air Force was also in not too happy a situation. The

refurbishing of the Flying Coffins the MiG 21s had been delayed

further by

at least two years. The Su 30s that she had contracted were still in

the

beginning of the pipe line. The eight supplied earlier were without

any

armaments. What was worse, the Russians had gone back on the original

contract that the modifications carried out to meet the Indian

specifications

would not be commercialised for sale to other countries. These

modified

aircraft had been sold to the Chinese. The LCA had been grounded as a

result of the sanctions and so had the Advanced Light Helicopter.

 

The Indian Navy was also having her own problems. An earlier Defence

Minister having stated in very categorical terms that India did not

need to

develop her own aircraft carrier suddenly created a situation that,

with

Vikrant being scrapped, and Virat in for a major re-fit, India was

just

without any aircraft carrier. The Navy had never felt so naked as in

1999

when she was without the aircraft carrier during the Kargil

Conflict.

The

nuclear submarine had still not got out of the drawing board stage.

India's

submarine construction programme had also ground to a halt as a

result of

the sanctions.

 

The single common thread was the complete failure of the Indians

towards

self sufficiency. It is indeed surprising that the country which has

had such

a successful programme of launching of satellites into the space and

such a

successful programme to launch missiles had failed to provide the

basic

infrastructure as well as the scientific backing to produce what are

comparatively speaking, technologically, lower rung equipment. This

writer is reminded of a conversation he had a couple of years back

with a

NRI engineer, where he had stated that India is poor in metallurgical

technology. Back came the response, 'No it is not that India is

lacking the

technological capability. It is not being allowed to develop it. For

if it does

the rationale for direct purchase, which is so profitable for the

politico-bureaucratic nexus is removed'.

 

The end result has been the armament deals worth $3 Billion or Rs

138000

Crores or more than twice the complete Defence Budget. And what does

India get for the money spent.:-

 

a.She gets 300 T 90 tanks. It is surprising as to how India has

gone

in

for this tank when the three prototypes had all the three

engines

failing

in the summer of the Thar Desert, the theatre where India is

expecting

a major tank operations, in case of any war with Pakistan. Of

course,

the bait is the transfer of technology and an assembly line

being

set up

in India. But then what has India done with the assembly line

for

T 72.

All that India has developed is the screw driver technology,

assembling components being supplied by Russia. Unlike China who

took the T-54 and continuously improved upon it while retaining

the

outer shell. Today she is producing the T-89 which is as good as

any

in the world. Yet it is simple and robust and what is even more

important, because of its simplicity of design highly marketable

in the

Third World countries.

b.India has got the right to assemble the SU 30s after the initial

supply of

forty aircraft. When, is still a moot point.

c.India has also been leased four Tu-22 maritime reconnaissance

aircraft capable of firing Klub Class air to surface missile,

with a

range of 300 Kilometres. The question is her capability to

acquire

targets at that range.

d.For the Navy, India gets the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov an

ill

fated ship which has been lying in the Russian junk yard after a

major

fire broke out in her engine room. The aircraft carrier is

gratis

but the

catch is that India will have to get it refitted in Russia at

the

cost of $

500 Million. Along with it, India will have to buy 30 MiG 29K

aircraft supposedly capable of operating from the aircraft

carrier.

Again a moot point, as the aircraft is still to be developed.

 

The crux of the deal is that it has further perpetuated the Indian

dependence

on Russia in matters of defence. More important, what is not being

realised

is that all the equipment contracted is just weapon platforms and not

weapons themselves. The weapons, that actually inflict damage are

munitions. For this India will remain continuously dependent on

Russia.

The present trend is to acquire what in military parlance is 90 days

War

Wastage Rates, which in turn translates into just 30 days of intense

fighting,

working on the scales which were originally developed during the

Second

World War. In today's intense rate of operations this, as shown by

Kargil,

will finish off in just fifteen days and then India will have to

enter the

world arms bazaars to purchase the munitions in black-market, at ten

and

even twenty times the original cost.

 

Thus for anyone to state that India's security has gained by this

visit is

living in a fool' paradise. Yes Russia has secured the financial

stability for

its own economy as well as its armament industry. The

politico-bureaucratic nexus responsible for the signing the

contracts

have

gained at least 15% which works out to $ 450 Million .

 

The question still is what has India lost. Apart from making India

vulnerable to the dependence on Russia's goodwill, which in any case

can

be discounted at a moment's notice, provided it suits Russian

Interests, the

major loser has been the Indian economy.

 

a.Had this money been spent within the country, the number of people

getting jobs would have made a major dent in the unemployment

scenario.

b.The money spent on construction of the ships and tanks within the

country would have given rise to the creation of an ancillary

industry

with added employment.

c.The employees would have, in turn, with added money in their

pockets, given a boost to the consumer durable and non durable

industry. The concept of Keynes' 'Multiplier' !

d.Had this money been spent in India, there would have been a

saving

in

the foreign exchange which in turn could be used for items even

more

vital, if necessary. This would have also strengthened the Rupee

in the

international market. Thereby, reducing the cost of vital

imports, and

as such cost to the customer.

e.India would not have been prone to international blackmail, as she

was in the case of cryogenic engine technology.

f.Indian R&D would have been given a boost with fallout in the

civilian

usage sphere.

g.In case of a war, or an emergency, India would not be at the

mercy

of

the supplying nations, as was India, as well as Pakistan, during

the

1965, as well as 1971 Wars. In other words, by developing and

manufacturing our own weapons, India's National Security would

have been more secure. By making India dependent on foreign

countries the Politico-Bureaucratic combine, has seriously

damaged

India's National Security; and just for a few shekels, (not

really, in

fact a lot of shekels!) for themselves, as part of the betrayal

of the

nation.

 

It is this continuous betrayal of India's interests for a quick buck

that has

been the bane of India's National Security scene. Some thing which

all the

right thinking Indians must condemn. Unfortunately India's fourth

estate,

ignorant and with questionable integrity has failed the country and

their

responsibility.