India and Russia-V

[Guest guest]

India and Russia-V

December 26, 2000

Original Article at link below

http://www.indiavotes.com/columns1/y2kdec4-tksludra.html

By Lieutenant Colonel Thakur Kuldip S Ludra (Retd.)

 

That Putin's visit had positive economic and commercial overtones had

been obvious. However, what was exactly his Grand design needs to be

understood and analysed. It must be realised that the collapse of

the

Soviet

Union had been a traumatic experience for the Russian leadership.

Not

only

had she collapsed economically but its empire, built so

painstakingly

by the

czars, had been frittered away by the communist leadership. Russia

has lost

most of her peripheral regions which had given her strategic depth

and

which had become the cornerstone of her Grand Strategy and which

enabled her to use her strategic depth whereby she had traded space

for

time and lured the enemy deep into her country, forcing the enemy to

extend

his lines of communications, even as she shortened hers and

thereafter

targeting the enemy's communications. She would invariably use the

vagaries of the weather to further target the enemy's logistics. She

did so

against Napoleon and she did it again against Hitler. The end result

was

that even as the enemy won tactical victories, she lost

strategically

as she

was forced to withdraw under most adverse conditions.

 

Russia had also lost her aura of a super power and she had the

ignominy of

seeing her own prot=E9g=E9 usurping her position as a super power.

Her

sole claim to that status was and is the immense nuclear arsenal

that

she

had piled up in her heyday. Her position in the world community was

now

dependent on the nuisance value of her veto power. It must have been

galling for her to have her leadership heading towards Beijing and

make

offers which were handled so condescendingly by the Chinese

leadership.

Even her offers of supplying weapons systems were more as if China

was

operating in a buyers' market. Her suggestion for a Strategic

Triangle

comprising of China India and Russia with joint geo-political as well

geo-economic policies, obviously under her leadership had been

rejected

both by China and India. She was also facing the Islamic

Fundamentalist

onslaught, headed by Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence, where

the

Fundamentalists were targeting the Central Asian States which had

been

considered as Russian backyard. Under the circumstances Putin had to

sell

Russia to India. It was vital for her not only in economic terms but

also in

terms of her geo-political constraints.

 

That he was, to a very large degree successful is obvious. The arms

deals

alone have netted her at least $ 3 Billion. Some say that the value

could

well go upto $ 6 Billion or even more. However, even more important

was

the signing of the Declaration of Strategic Partnership. These

included

seventeen bilateral agreements which would underscore the commonality

of national and geo-political interests. This would also lead to the

enhancement of close economic co-operation as well as political

interaction, particularly against Pakistan's Inter Services

Intelligence

onslaught targeting, particularly the Taliban controlled Afghanistan.

However the Russians have been playing their cards rather close to

their

chest. While trying to retain the cordiality of the Indo-Russian

relationship

they have also indirectly, by sending a delegation to Pakistan and

accepting

an invitation from Pakistan for Putin's visit to that country sent a

message

that India should not forget the importance of Russia to its

security. Taken

to its logical conclusion there could well be a

Moscow-Beijing-Islamabad

Strategic Triangle if India ignores Russian overtures.

 

For India it must also be borne that Russia as just as strongly

interested in

India remaining within the existing Nuclear bounds. She is not

prepared to

give India a de jure Nuclear status much as India desires it. Russia

is also

keen that India signs the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty for that will

ensure that India remains dependent on her for a nuclear support

assistance

as well as sell her technology to India. Towards that end a

Memorandum of

Understanding has been signed on intensifying bilateral co-operation

in the

peaceful use of nuclear energy. The Russians have also indicated

that

the

international restrictions of sale of nuclear know how or material

need not

come in the way of Indo-Russian transactions.

 

Of course, for India any yardstick of the success of any

international

dealings is the stand taken by the other party on Kashmir and on

this

score

India has reasons to be particularly satisfied. The Russians having

reaffirmed their support to India's efforts to normalise her

relations with

Pakistan on the basis of Shimla Agreement of 1972.

 

The other side of the coin is however not so pleasant. While the

threat of

the Islamabad-Beijing-Moscow Triangle is there and so is the

non-support

of India's Nuclear ambitions, what is important is that India has

once again

failed to capitalise on her economic strength vis-=E0-vis Russia. If

one

study's the table below it will be seen that vis-=E0-vis Russia,

India has

always been on a stronger wicket yet she had been tied down by the

Rupee

agreement which ensured that India remained tied to Russia as the

Rupees

earned by India were worthless in the international market.

 

INDO-RUSSIAN TRADE (1993-2000) (in Million Dollars)

CHART AT LINK BELOW:

 

http://www.indiavotes.com/columns1/y2kdec4-tksludra.html

 

(The source of the above information is CMIE as quoted by

the Frontline of 27 October 2000, page 18)

 

 

While earlier the trade, as mentioned earlier was in Rupees it is

now

in the

freely convertible currencies, in that the Russian imports are to be

paid in

international hard currencies, the Indian exports are to be paid in

rupees. In

other words India is bound down to Russia for the requisite supply of

goods to compensate for the payment made to India in Rupees which is

still

a very week currency. In other words Russia has managed to tie India

to

her for commercial purposes once again to the detriment of Indian

commercial interests.

 

An agreement regarding the transportation of goods has also been

signed.

The new route from Mumabi to Bandar Abbas in Iran to Astarkhan in

Russia shortens the route to Russia which earlier went through Suez

to

eventually land at Saint Petersburg (earlier Leningrad).

 

That India has not made a very profitable bargain is obvious.

However

the

future to a very large degree rests on the success that Russia makes

of her

economy as well as her status in the world pecking order.