Russo-Sino-Indian Alliance

[Guest guest]

The new Cold War

 

By Dr. Jassim Taqui

 

January 26, 2001

 

In a new move, Russia has reacted to the coming to power by the

Republican George W Bush by sending two large and impressive anti-

submarine warships from the Pacific Fleet on an extended patrol that

includes port calls in India and Vietnam. Russia's choice of ship is

telling. Although they are warships, the vessels pose a threat to

commercial shipping unlike the increasing multinational submarine

threat in the South China Sea. Russia hopes to reassure its allies in

the region it can provide useful military assistance and show a

Russian military presence.

 

Russia's Pacific Fleet returned to extended naval operations with the

Jan.15 sailing of two Udaloy class destroyers to India and Vietnam.

The choice of the Admiral Vinogradov and Admiral Panteleyev, large

anti-submarine warfare ships, demonstrates Russian military

capability and a willingness to provide assistance in the vital

shipping lanes of Southeast Asia.

 

Russia's extended naval journey is significant in that it marks the

Pacific Fleet's first long-term mission in the last five years. Until

now, the Pacific Fleet has been unable to conduct extended operations

because of chronic cash shortages.

 

Russia had a choice of ships to send on the voyage. The Pacific

Fleet, formerly comprised more than 100 submarines and surface ships,

now has a much-reduced capability. The fleet maintains surface

warships, among them several Sovremenny class destroyers, powerful

warships armed with supersonic anti-ship missiles.

 

Unlike the Sovremenny, the Udaloy primarily is an anti-submarine

vessel with large bow-mounted sonar and two KA-7 helix anti-submarine

helicopters. The Udaloys serve as a capable anti-submarine platform

while posing a threat to commercial shipping.

 

Many nations bordering the South China Sea began purchasing

submarines during the economic boom of the late 1980s and early

1990s. The geographic and economic nature of the area dictated the

increased investment in submarines. Shipping is vital to Southeast

Asia, as raw material and products primarily move through the

shipping lanes of the South China Sea. Submarines provide an

effective way to block these naval trade routes.

 

According to the United States Energy Information Administration,

half of the world's supertankers pass through the region.

Additionally half of the world's merchant fleet (by tonnage) sails

through the region each year. Submarines probably would provide a

valuable tool in controlling the sea lanes in the area. Any conflict

in the region probably will focus on controlling the vital shipping

and trade lanes of the South China Sea.

 

China has a number of submarines in the area, more than those

purchased by other countries in the region. The United States also

maintains a large number of submarines in the Pacific, and many

patrol this vital trade route. Yet the Russian anti-submarine warfare

(ASW) ships are capable primarily of detecting older submarines, such

as those owned by China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. U.S.

submarines, however, are quieter and more advanced, and therefore

harder to detect.

 

With the proliferation of submarines in Southeast Asia, the Udaloys

or their technology could be offered to Russia's allies in Vietnam

and India. Russia's choice of sending the Udaloy serves two purposes,

reasserting the Russian navy and reminding its allies of the

proliferation of submarines in the South China Sea. The Udaloy class

ship, with its ASW capability, does not threaten commercial shipping

as a Sovremenny might.

 

In another move, China has started a well calculated step to send a

message to George W Bush. It was no coincidence that Li Peng, the

second most powerful man in China's ruling Communist party, has just

visited India with a huge 118-strong official delegation. He came and

went only days before the official inauguration of George W. Bush as

US president. Nor was it mere happenstance that Beijing let it be

known at precisely the same time it was finally drafting a peace and

friendship pact with Russia, after years of dragging its feet.

 

The installation of a new administration in Washington, capital of

the world's solitary superpower, has galvanised Chinese efforts to

forge an alternative multipolar power structure, in which China hopes

that India and Russia will share a vital interest.

 

The Bush effect had begun even before the new president had taken his

seat in the Oval Office. Mr Li made no secret of his world view when

he spoke in New Delhi. It is China's consistent stand that a

multipolar world is better than a unipolar world, he told Indian

parliamentarians. Li went on to say, India has the potential to grow

into a pole herself.

 

He went on to call for the two most populous nations in the world to

co-operate far more closely, not least within the World Trade

Organisation that China is set to join in the coming months. China

and India should work together for a new economic order in the world,

he declared.

 

Clearly, some sort of a strategic triangle between Russia, China and

India is being created. It was timed to give a message to the new

strategic look by George W Bush. Bush has given indications that he

would revive ties with old allies in the region . During the election

campaign, Bush came out strongly against support of authoritarian

regimes.

 

Second, Bush will certainly try and explore new avenues of military

cooperation with Pakistan. There are many influential advisers in the

Republican camp who still recall the Pakistani contribution to

ridding Afghanistan of the USSR's presence, a key trigger for the

ultimate demise of the communist regime in Moscow.

 

Third, Bush's position on China is the most significant shift in the

new US policy. Earlier, no American president could dare to take a

very hard line on China. The Chinese have simply swamped the American

consumer market with cheap but high-quality goods. They are also

large importers of American goods even though they run a huge annual

trade surplus of about $50 billion. China's trade with the US has

given it enormous leverage. The Republicans see China as a strategic

competitor and not necessarily as a strategic partner which was the

language of Clinton.

 

Under this scenario, the stage is set to a new era of the cold War.

This time, the United States would be strongly confronted by both

Russia and China while India would act as a surrogate of Moscow, a

role it has always done before and after the demise of Soviet Union.

In this scenario, Pakistan has a role to play provided the policy

makers use their cards wisely and properly.