India may gain from ‘war against terrorism’

[Guest guest]

India may gain from `war against terrorism'

 

>From L K Sharma

DH News Service

Washington, Sept 18

 

The Indo-US relations may benefit from a dose of realism in the

coming days, with Pakistan once again becoming a centre-piece of the

US strategy. The US will, of course, say that its ties with India are

not dependent on its relations with a third country. But the focus of

the US in the region has just undergone a slight change and it will

have some impact on India's relations with the US.

 

India will have no reason to resent closer links between Islamabad

and Washington, provided the US does not distinguish between the

terrorists causing destruction in America and the terrorists striking

in Kashmir or other parts of India.

While New Delhi may expect the US administration to make a powerful

statement against terrorists in Kashmir, it should not be surprised

if that element is not touched in the continuing spate of statements

in Washington applauding Gen Pervez Musharraf continues. In the real

world, the US would do what it knows best: to punish the enemy and to

bribe the friends and overlook their lapses as long as these do not

affect America's national interests. Those running moral crusades in

the national interest do not run an ethical foreign policy based on

Gandhian values.

 

The US had initially asked Pakistan to crack down on

the `madarassas', the nurseries for terrorists in its view. This is

one step that may have had some beneficial impact on the Kashmir

situation in the coming years and also on the Indo-Pak relations as

generally the peoples of the two nations are in favour of friendly

relations. It is possible that the US may not insist on that demand

as Pakistan offers it other forms of cooperation in the drive against

Osama bin Laden. The US tilt, in the context of South Asia, is being

delicately readjusted. Analysts close to the establishment are back

in the game of highlighting the parity between India and Pakistan.

Thus many dangers of not respecting Pakistan's sensitivities will be

highlighted even as rich tributes are paid to the `Great Indian

Democracy'.

 

The US will fully back Gen Musharraf who has projected himself here

as a moderate Muslim. The American media had reported in the past

about a shadowy figure in the army, a fundamentalist, who was keeping

an eye on Gen Musharraf. The US is banking on Gen Musharraf to

prevent the falling of Pakistani nuclear weapons into the hands of

fundamentalists in the event of a major civil unrest.

 

The Pakistan government developed the nuclear bomb purely as a

response to India but the fact of Pakistan being a nuclear weapons

state has encouraged many other forces to think of it as "an Islamic

bomb" belonging to the holding company of Muslim worldwide. Pakistan,

according to reports here, has some 30 tactical nuclear weapons but

no safeguards which operate in the case of original nuclear weapons

states.

 

Washington hopes that Gen Musharraf's professional army would retain

complete control and that the army itself would not be split.

American analysts will argue that US engagement alone can help the

moderate leadership of Pakistan to rid the Pakistani army of the

influence of Islamic fundamentalism.

 

Earlier, they were concerned that even some of the Westernised

officers of the Pakistan army had started praying five times a day.

American analysts will also start re-examining the Kashmir dispute

and advising the Bush administration not to stay aloof from such

an "explosive problem".

 

In an ironic replay of history, Pakistan has again become important

to the US. During the occupation of Afghanistan by the Soviet forces,

the US had wanted Pakistan's help to prop up Osama bin Laden. This

time, with its economy on the brink of a collapse, Pakistan had no

choice except to cooperate with the US. However, it has been able to

make a virtue of it. Once it has joined the bandwagon, the US does

not wish to be reminded of Pakistan's role in supporting terrorism.

It is as well that the US administration had refrained from declaring

Pakistan a terrorist state even though the State Department's report

on international terrorism had listed the groups operating in

Pakistan.

 

Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is unlikely to again

highlight the "false" note in the earlier warm relationship between

the two countries. He had done so earlier, provoking Pakistan. The

cavalcade of uniformed officers will resume their journeys from

Islamabad to Pentagon. The revived military cooperation would mean

that the equipment held up in America would start flowing to the

rightful recipient who had paid for it.

 

Pakistan's demands for economic aid, lifting of sanctions and

resumption of supply of weapons are being considered favourably and

if sanctions on India are lifted soon, a thank-you letter from the

Indian prime minister to Gen Musharraf will be in order.

 

A Pakistani political analyst, Husain Haqqani, sees a silver lining

in the context of the Indo-Pak relationship, with India and Pakistan

coming on the same side, against terrorism. He sees it as a historic

opportunity. However, he has warned US against propping up a dictator

in Pakistan as it had done earlier. The US must not give up on

Pakistani democracy, he says. It may be tempting to deal with an

individual such as Gen Musharraf for immediate gains but that

approach is fraught with danger as has been shown by the earlier

cooperation between the US and the Zia regime.

 

Writing in the New York Times, Husain Haqqani, who was an adviser

both to Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, also warns the US

against "creating a new monster while dealing with the existing one".

He recalled that Gen Zia-ul-Haq used Western support to deny

democracy to his own people until his death. The present Pakistan

government, he said, had ignored Islamic militants on grounds of

supporting their fight against Indian control of Kashmir. Pakistan

describes these militants as freedom-fighters.

 

Mr Haqqani fears that Gen Musharraf in his bargain with the US would

seek American indulgence of his deviation from democracy on grounds

that he plans to act against Islamic extremists.