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AMERICA COMES BRAIN-SHOPPING

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AMERICA COMES BRAIN-SHOPPING

FROM SUJAN DUTTA

New Delhi, Oct. 23:

At a quiet dinner last week during Colin Powell's visit to New Delhi,

an official accompanying the US secretary of state sidled up to a

former Indian army officer and got him talking on the military

campaign in Afghanistan.

 

A fortnight ago, another former officer visiting the US was

discreetly asked for his opinion.

 

It is not a formal arrangement but former Indian military officers

who retain an interest in the study of armed conflicts in the region

are being quietly sounded. The Indian army runs a military hospital

at Farkhor, just inside Tajikistan from across the border with

Afghanistan. It was to the Farkhor hospital that Ahmad Shah Masood,

the Northern Alliance commander, was taken after two assailants

posing as journalists blew up on him last month in a suicide mission.

The Farkhor mission is reported to have 25 doctors. It is not

unreasonable to assume that it also works as a listening, observation

and liaison post of the Indian security establishment, which has

retained ties with the Northern Alliance.

 

In the two instances where the Indian military experts were sounded,

both proffered the same advice: step up the ground campaign within a

month.

 

"Studies on weather conditions over Afghanistan give the US till

November 19 to conclude phase one of a ground operation," one expert

said. That is roughly the time that Ramzan will begin.

 

"America now has to take one of three options: support the Northern

Alliance in its advance on Kabul, take special forces in and out of

Afghanistan on lightning raids based on intelligence or put in larger

forces, maybe an airborne division, to hold territory in strategic

locations," said Major General (retired) Ashok Krishna, deputy

director of the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, a think

tank in New Delhi.

 

Another expert says Monday's bombing of the Taliban front line marks

a shift in military tactics. The strongest indication of the

possibility of American troops supporting the alliance is their

presence north of Afghanistan.

 

Among these troops is the US' 5th Special Operations Group, which

specialises on Central Asia. Also involved in ground operations would

be the 10th Special Forces, which specialises in cold weather

missions and thus are particularly suited to the Afghan winter. An

estimated 1,000 troops from the 10th Mountain Division have been

based in Uzbekistan.

 

By default almost, American support for the Northern Alliance also

means India's finger in the Afghan pie will go in that bit deeper. In

the Indian security establishment, that is a minor victory for those

who insisted India must maintain its links with the Northern Alliance

through the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and even through the

army. It is a policy that has been pursued quietly despite opposition

from within since the time Narasimha Rao was Prime Minister and

Pranab Mukherjee the external affairs minister and still keeps India

a player in Afghanistan.

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