India Prepares to Invade Pakistan

[Guest guest]

Kashmir Dispute Boiling Over

21 November:  Escalating border clashes, incursions and a

massive Indian army buildup on the Line of Control in the

disputed province of Kashmir in the last 48 hours are some of

the most threatening side-effects of the Afghan war, bringing two

nuclear powers close to flashpoint.

Early Wednesday morning, November 21, a senior diplomatic

mission arrived in Kabul, the first since the Taliban seized the

Afghan capital in 1996 and closed the Indian embassy. In

addition to a Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Satinder Lambah

and his staff, the mission includes a group of military doctors

and nurses. Lamba will meet Northern Alliance and other Afghan

leaders before returning to India. India has already established a

field hospital on the Tajik-Afghan border and looks forward to

restoring its "historic ties" with Afghanistan, the third country after

Russia and Iran to send diplomats to Kabul.

According to DEBKAfile's sources on the Indian subcontinent,

the Indian army is holding its heavily boosted military force in

offensive posture opposite the Pakistani army in Kashmir.

As seen from New Delhi, Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf's

grip on government is wobbling dangerously since the setback

to his policies administered by the Northern Alliance's grand

sweep of most of Afghanistan. Indian intelligence reports officers

of the pro-Taliban Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) as

plotting to oust him. Indian defense minister George Fernandes

warned recently that Pakistan's involvement in the anti-Taliban

conflict would not only destabilize its society and army, but rock

the country's foundations dangerously. To fight his way out of

this corner, Musharraf may resort to stepping up

Pakistan-backed Islamic terrorist attacks in Kashmir, or outright

invasion, deliberately triggering war with India to deflect popular

disaffection.

DEBKAfile 's Indian military sources report Indian prime minister

Atal Bihari Vajpayee as poised on the brink of initiating

wide-scale military action against Pakistan, pre-emptively or not,

after declaringIndia to be in a situation of "zero military

tolerance".

His words are matched by action. Large-scale Indian assault

units have been moved to Kashmir to reinforce its defensive

Holding Corps. India's 21 Strike Force, comprised mainly of the

33rd armored division, has advanced towards Akhnoor in the

Jammu region, where the Indian forward command post is

already located. The division was reinforced by two armored

infantry brigades and mechanized artillery units from main

bases in Meerut and Mathura. In addition, the Indians are

transferring into Kashmir armored and infantry brigades to

transform 16 Corps at Nagrauta in Jammu, 15 Corps at Badami

Bagh, Srinagar and 14Corps at Nimmu and Leh from defensive

to attack forces.

Indian military sources told DEBKAfilethat these movements

amount in practical terms to a full Indian war alert in Kashmir.

As it is, the daily shelling by Pakistan and India could at any

moment ignite the entire front in a flash, drawing a powerful

Indian military response irrespective of the state of the

Afghanistan war.

Wednesday, November 21, Indian border guards killed a dozen

guerrillas crossing from Pakistan into the Pakistan side of

Kashmir, at Ramgarh, 40 miles from the state's winter capital

Jammu. According to an Indian spokesman, the men were

"Muslim terrorists". A few hours later, an Indian Special

Operations Group of the local police gunned down two top

commanders of the Pakistan-based Al-Badr unit, including its

operational chief, Hafiz Ahsan Ali, called "Nayeem" in a raid on

the outskirts of Srinagar.

Both sides report exchanges of fire along the entire international

border.

Pakistani "Chenab Rangers" claim success in foiling Indian

security attempts to erect an electronic fence along the boundary

at three points. This fence was designed for the Indian army by

Israeli experts as part of the defense exchanges between the

two countries. A senior Israeli defense delegation is due in New

Delhi before the end of the month.

India's leaders believe that the United States, pinned down as it

is by the Afghanistan stalemate, is in no position to tie India's

hands and force it to desist from military action. In any case, as

the Indian prime minister told President George W. Bush in the

White House on November 9, India holds America responsible

for rendering an outbreak of Pakistani-Indian war hostilities

virtually inevitable by taking Pakistan as its senior partner in the

war in Afghanistan, although India was one of the first countries

to side with the American anti-terror drive.

In the face of this charge – and since the wheel of war has

turned against the Taliban - the United States has become more

receptive to New Delhi's point of view.

"A terrorist is a terrorist," said US ambassador Robert Blackwill

Wednesday in the Indian capital when asked how Washington

regarded Pakistani support for militants fighting Indian rule in the

state of Jammu and Kashmir. "They are not freedom fighters,"

the ambassador stressed. "No country will be permitted to

provide sanctuaries to terrorists, "

Blackwill announced the US and India were on the cusp of a

"major relationship" entailing resumed the defense cooperation

disrupted by India's nuclear tests in 1998, arms sales, joint

exercises, counter-terrorism measures and shared intelligence.