IT and the end of US hegemony

[Guest guest]

IT and the end of US hegemony

By Bharat Jhunjhunwala

Source: Free Press Journal

 

"We need to overcome the disdain of technological excellence. In the

tenth Chapter of Bhagwat Gita, Lord Krishna enumerates that he is

Skanda among the commanders, Pipal among the trees, Airawat among the

elephants, king among human beings, vajra among weapons, etc. It is

this striving for material excellence that we must also take from the

Gita." Stephen S Cohen, University of California

 

Stephen S Cohen and his colleagues at the University of California

have said that America now depend for her prosperity "on the capacity

to create and introduce new technologies and new business forms."

Cohen explains that over the past twenty-five years, America has

moved away from mass production into specializing in the permanent

frontier of new technology. But in so doing, we have signed-on to

path of constant effort, investment and innovation." There are six

reasons why the current spate of technological innovations--including

those in information technology--will not sustain.

 

First, the past history of technological innovations shows that they

occur in spurts with long periods of stagnation in between. The

invention of the yoke many thousand years ago was followed by a few

thousand years of technological stagnation. It initially spawned

great civilizations like those of Egypt, Sumer and Indus but

thereafter there was no significant technological development for two

thousand years. The invention of iron technology around 1000 B.C. led

to the rise of the civilizations of Greece and Rome and Maurya

empires but then again there was no technological development for

another two thousand years till the steam engine came. This history

seems to indicate that technological advances occur in spurts

followed by long periods of stability.

 

But we have seen a series of technological developments in the last

three centuries starting with the steam engine--the electric motor,

telegraph, television, jet airplanes and now computers and internet.

These technological developments may all be elements of one big leap.

The invention of bronze, for example, was followed by that of the

sail boat, water-lifting, wheeled carts and chariots. But these

subsequent developments are not seen as heralding new `Ages'. It is

possible that a few hundred years down the road, the internet may

similarly be seen as a part of the larger `Machine Age'.

 

Second, the supremacy of the United States today rests, as Cohen

points out, on `constant effort, investment and innovation'. This

comes along with its costs. The social stress is immense. The extreme

personal distress--violence in schools among the young, high rates of

divorce, unwillingness to take military hits from direct engagement--

are indicators that the American civilization may burst under this

frenzied load of change. Let us not forget that more `advanced'

civilizations like those of Rome had been overrun by barbarians at

lower levels of technological expertise but who were mentally

stronger. It is likely, therefore, that the present exponential trend

in technological innovations will come to rest from the social

exhaustion that it entails.

 

Third, Internet is really not a new technology like the bronze axe or

the gun powder. It is more like a lubricant. Internet makes available

information to a school graduate at the click of the mouse which

would have earlier been accessible only to advanced research

institutes and that too with much effort. The internet does not

`create' anything itself. It only facilitates what other sectors are

creating. Thus, it will lead to the speeding up of every sector of

the economy but the basic structure of the economy will remain

unchanged. The impact of the internet will be like graduating from an

Ambassador to Mitsubishi Lancer--they both serve the same function of

transport.

 

Fourth, the final impact of the internet may be rather placid. The

internet can provide vast amounts of information but it cannot

`think'. The human brain is still required to transform the

information into anything useful. The steam engine does not dispense

with the engine driver and the signal man. Similarly, the internet

will not do away with the economist and the sociologist.

 

Fifth, the internet may prove to be the enemy of the United States.

Toffler points out the difficulties that the US faces in being able

to maintain her technological lead: "After the Gulf War it looked as

though the US would have a 10-to 15-year lead. But the fact is, the

more knowledge - intensive military action becomes the more

nonlinear; the more a small input someplace can neutralize an

enormous investment. And having the right bit or byte of information

at the right place at the right time, in India or in Turkistan or in

God knows where, could neutralize an enormous amount of military

power somewhere else. So it is no longer necessary to match battalion

with battalion, tank with tank, in order to neutralize the other

guy." Thus a country like ours with less resources at hand can yet

outsmart the technologically advanced countries. Let us not forget

that our Pokharan explosions had escaped detection by the spy

satellites of the United States.

 

Sixth, as time passes, wealth will follow those who have widespread

entrepreneurship. Toffler points out that mass production is out and

customization is in.

 

Most exporters will vouch for the fact that India gets higher prices

for our products mainly because our entrepreneurs are able to meet

the specific demands of our customers. The US imposed anti-dumping

duty on our steel precisely because our producers were supplying

plates cut to size as per the customer's requirement. Instead of,

therefore, going for large scale production, we must go for

customization.

 

The expansion of services sector will also favour India. Our educated

entrepreneurs can provide health, education, music, movies, software

and all other services.

 

It is likely, therefore, that the technological supremacy of the

United States which has put all its stake, as Cohen points out, on

its ability to make constant innovations will not last. Nor will the

euphoria about IT. This view is in contrast to that of futurologist

Alvin Toffler who sees the impact of information technology so

pervasive as to claim that "we are in the midst of creating a new

civilization." He holds that, in times to come, we will need a

completely new approach to economics, politics and sociology." This

exuberance would appear to be similar to that the people of ancient

Greece may have felt when they first used bronze weapons. A more

somber assessment would be that IT has only taken one step forward

the process that had been continuing for many millennia. We know that

the advances of chariot, sail boat, steam engine, electricity, jet

plane and television have hardly changed the basic questions of

social organization that man has been occupied with. The questions

regarding the purpose of life that our Rig Vedic seers had been

preoccupied with at the advent of bronze age continue to haunt us

till today.

 

What we need is to focus on our strengths instead of trying to copy

the model that United States has followed. We should see the limits

of technological innovations and focus on what comes next. Let us

accept that in five thousand years of our civilization we have

contributed little to technologies yet we have by far been the

richest. The cities of Harappa and Mohanjodaro were many hundred

times larger than those of Egypt and Sumer. Our Maurya and Gupta

empires flourished when Europe went through its Dark Ages.

 

We need to overcome the disdain of technological excellence. In the

tenth Chapter of Bhagwat Gita, Lord Krishna enumerates that he is

Skanda among the commanders, Pipal among the trees, Airawat among the

elephants, king among human beings, vajra among weapons, etc. It is

this striving for material excellence that we must also take from the

Gita. We will have to learn to honour our scientists and innovators.

IT can then become an instrument for our emerging as leaders of the

world.