UP presents a tough call for BJP

[Guest guest]

Uttar Pradesh presents a tough call for BJP

(OR DEMOCRACY:INDIA'S BIGGEST HURDLE TO STABILITY)

Our Political Bureau in New Delhi/Lucknow

 

Rajnath Singh wants to sit in the Opposition benches in the new UP

assembly, but BSP leader Mayawati won't let him.

 

Mulayam Singh Yadav, leader of the Samajwadi Party, the single

largest party, wants to become chief minister but the Congress won't

let him.

 

And while Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee would like Mayawati,

with her 14 MPs, to support the NDA at the Centre, the 40-odd Muslim

MLAs in the BSP, who have been elected to the assembly, are

vehemently opposed to the idea.

 

All these contradictions are rapidly coming together in a picture

that looks as if President's Rule will be the only political choice

in UP. The only mitigating factor is that if the truth emerges out of

confusion, the governor Vishnu Kant Shastri has till March 26 to

allow confusion to reign.

 

As the last of the results came in on Sunday night, Mayawati

telephoned Vajpayee and is said to have told him that because she

was "like his daughter" she wanted Vajpayee's support in her claim to

form the government.

 

Vajpayee was quick to give an assurance. Given the wafer thin

majority that the NDA has in the Lok Sabha, the idea of adding 14

more MPs to the kitty is an attractive one. Both Shiv Sena (on the

issue of labour reforms) and Ram Vilas Paswan (after the dismal

showing in the UP elections) have demanded that the BJP review its

relationship with the NDA.

 

However, at the meeting of the Central Parliamentary Board (CPB) of

the BJP, Rajnath Singh is believed to have said that his own

preference was to stay in the Opposition. "Whoever comes into power

will know how hard it is to run the state without money. He or she

will have to give up in six months.

 

So we should not be part of the exercise of ministry-making at all"

he is reported to have said, adding that the BJP had done enough to

hurt itself by relying on "strategy"—a euphemism for defections—and

should go by rules of fair play this time. This meant letting Mulayam

Singh Yadav form the government.

 

At a briefing after the CPB, the BJP announced that it will sit in

the opposition in UP. This is seen as strategic posturing because

several BJP MPs were in touch with Mayawati till late last night to

work out a formula which would involve having Rajnath Singh as Chief

Minister with BSP ministers, while Mayawati was made minister at the

centre with other BSP MPs.

 

There are obvious problems with this scheme—BSP cannot afford to have

a loose control over its MLAs. But the compulsion of BJP is that if

Mulayam Singh Yadav is allowed to hunker down in UP, he may become

impossible to dislodge for the next five years—which means the next

Lok Sabha elections would have to be held with Mulayam Singh as Chief

Minister of UP.

 

The Congress is also weighing its options. An informal Congress

Working Committee meeting failed to reach any conclusions.

 

Home Minister L K Advani and Prime Minister Vajpayee had a meeting at

3.00 PM Monday to thrash out the situation in UP. The current

uncertainty is likely to continue until after the budget.