Nepal Loses Ground against Maoist Rebels

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Nepal Loses Ground against Maoist Rebels

DEBKAfile Special Report

26 February: The tiny Himalayan kingdom of Nepal, the world's

backpackers' paradise, is being squeezed to death in the crossfire of

big power and domestic conflicts. International airlines shun

Kathmandu since India-Pakistan tensions over Kashmir loomed - on top

of a vicious Maoist rebellion that has claimed 342 lives in the last

nine days alone.

On February 17, the Nepal government renewed the state of emergency

after rebels killed 137 soldiers and policemen at Kailkot, 400 west

of the capital. In the same district, soldiers killed 76 rebels in a

massive weekend strike. Since the mid-nineties, the insurgency aiming

at creating a communist state in place of the monarchy has killed

more than 3000, mostly police and government personnel.

For the moment, the Maoists control 33 of 72 Nepalese districts, with

full control over four, providing the local population with

administration, health, economic aid and education.

DEBKAfile 's Asian experts report that the danger of the unrest in

Nepal spilling over into neighboring countries is imminent; so too is

its potentially detrimental affect on the US-led war on terror.

More than half of Nepal's population of more than 22 million, with a

Hindu majority and about 3 percent Moslems, lives in third world

poverty.

The insurgents are gaining ground by a combination of tactics.

Targeting officialdom, banks and American companies, their methods of

operation recall both Islamic radical expansionists today and North

Vietnam in the seventies - linking education with militancy, driving

government troops from remote areas before moving in on population

centers and meting out cruel punishment – mutilations of bodies,

beheading prisoner and burning the faces of fallen soldiers.

The Nepalese police is poorly equipped and more vulnerable than the

army, which is famous for its legendary Ghurka fighters. But both are

desperately in need of training and weapons upgrading.

The two rival regional powers, China and India, are of one mind in

fearing the collapse of the Nepalese ruling system and its

replacement by a radical communist Maoist regime. The rebel

movement's destabilizing influence is already reaching into Bhutan,

Bangladesh and China. However, the Nepalese government wants aid

from sources other than India and China.

This year, both the United States - alarmed by the effect of the

Nepal civil war on its war against terror - and Britain, have

promised support. The Russian government too has condemned the Maoist

revolt and offered the Nepalese government badly needed help.

The army has a number of special units with mountain artillery and an

armored car company. Most of its equipment is of French, German, US,

Indian and Chinese manufacture. Nepal wants to replace it with

American or British hardware.

The Nepalese air force has a small helicopter unit, a number of short-

take-off and landing planes and transporters. Its shopping list runs

to more American or British armor, helicopters, including assault

helicopters and light counter-insurgency aircraft.

The police, including volunteers and militia, has about 28,000 men

equipped with outdated 303 Lee Enfield pre WWI rifles and Sten sub-

machine guns. It also lacks vehicles and communications systems.

The so-called "Maoists" are in fact a heterogeneous assortment of

groups, influenced by the outdated theories of Mao Tse Dung and

Indian communists. They are divided into two main branches – the

Communist Marxist Party of Nepal – UPN-MX, and the Communist Marxist-

Leninist Party of Nepal – CMLPN. According to American and Nepalese

intelligence, there are at least 17 more communist factions in Nepal.

Since the late eighties, they have been forming into ad hoc unions,

which maintain ties with Maoists in India, especially in the states

of Bihar and Utar Pradesh, to topple the Nepalese

government.

Part of this coalition are the Maoist Popular Front-Samyuktha Mukti

Bahini- SMB and the Jan Morcha-JM, which draw support in weapons and

war materials from the criminal organizations in India and Bangladesh

known as "tags". But the most dangerous group at the head of the

rebellion is the Communist-Marxist Party/Maoist – CPN/M, which is

headed by Pushpa Kamal Dahaln, nicknamed The Fierce One.

The Nepalese government has not yet reached the point of appealing

for outside intervention, but it is already fighting the advancing

Maoists with its back to the wall.