Saudi Arabia Renounces US Protection& Forms Arab-Chinese Alliance

[Guest guest]

Eight Saudi Brigades Massed Tuesday Apr 23rd, on

Jordanian Frontier Following Intelligence of Israeli

Troop Concentrations on Its Jordanian Border

 

Bush-Abdullah Talks - to Paper Over Cracks?

 

21 April: Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's decision to shut Prince

Sultan air base east of Riyadh to US forces - and the manner in which

the US evacuation was carried out –are a landmark in the oil

kingdom's history. Never before has Saudi Arabia taken sole charge of

its own security. The gesture effectively ditched the US umbrella

protecting the kingdom, its oil fields and the royal family for more

than 60 years, posing five sensitive questions to be addressed when

President George W. Bush and Saudi Crown Abdullah meet at the

presidential ranch in Crawford, Texas, on April 24:

1. What happens to the US nuclear umbrella over Saudi Arabia?

2 . Will the United States continue to defend Saudi Arabia's oil

fields and pipelines?

3. Will the United States stay on as protector of the House of Saudi

from external and internal threat?

4. Will Saudi Arabia take action against the al Qaeda terrorists

sheltering in, and operating from, the kingdom since March?

5. Will Riyadh join, or reject, an oil embargo?

Abdullah promised Secretary of State Colin Powell that his government

would not be a party to any oil embargo. But DEBKA-Net-Weekly's

sources in the Gulf doubt the Saudis will stand up to pressure from

Iraq, Iran, the Palestinians and Venezuela to declare at least a one-

month oil embargo. Chances are good that in the next 10 to 14 days,

when Israel launches another major retaliation for a Palestinian

terror attack, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela will declare a 30-day oil

embargo. Should Israel hold off, Saudi Arabia would in turn be able

to postpone its declaration of an embargo until after the Bush-

Abdullah talks.

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and his two leading sponsors, Saudi

Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz and the European Union, notably

its foreign affairs executive, Javier Solana, chose to anchor

Europe's Middle East policy on Arafat and his Palestinian Authority.

Both encouraged Arafat to believe he would come out on top in his

confrontation with the Israelis. He therefore toughed it out with

Israel and the Americans – and lost.

 

The Saudis, like other Arab leaders, are bidding for third-party help

against Washington's demands. Understanding that the White House, by

its backing for Ariel Sharon, had dealt a death blow to his peace

initiative and foreign policy, Crown Prince Abdullah sent his foreign

minister Saud al-Faisal to Moscow on Sunday, April 18, for urgent

talks with President Vladimir Putin. Abdullah hoped for some good

news before he visits the Bush ranch in Crawford, Texas on April 24.

 

DEBKAfile's Moscow and Gulf sources report that Putin was surprised

to hear al Faisal explaining bluntly and agitatedly that the

Americans were pushing Riyadh into irrational and radical positions

regarding their campaign against terror, so undoing the close

affinity binding them as allies for decades. What the Saudis were

therefore seeking was an ally or allies to offset American pressure.

They could either turn to Russia or to the Iran-Iraq axis. The Saudi

foreign minister said his government preferred Moscow and offered to

coordinate its oil policies with the Kremlin and buy Russian arms.

Our sources say Putin was not over-impressed by the Saudi minister's

plea. The Putin-Bush political, military and economic pact generated

by America's global war on terror stands out as the most robust

feature bar none against the current diplomatic landscape. Al Faisal

did not stand a chance of driving a wedge between the two world

leaders. The Russian president also knew that the Saudi minister's

did not exactly come with clean hands; Riyadh's pact with Baghdad and

Tehran was no longer an option but an accomplished fact. (Our

intelligence newsletter, DEBKA-Net-Weekly, exposed this pact last

February.) It is therefore not surprising that Saud al Faisal came

away from Moscow empty-handed.

 

A third world power, China, is bent on capitalizing on these

shifting trends. President Jiang Zemin and prime minister Zhu Rongji,

both of whom are near the end of their terms in office, are making

the rounds of Arab and Gulf Emirate capitals and Iran. Posing as the

only power siding with the Arab-Muslim camp, the Chinese leaders are

offering largesse in the form of military assistance, including

Chinese arms, and cooperation in oil strategy.

DEBKAfile 's sources report that China is buying up shares in

oilfields and oil resources, to fill in the projected shortfall

between its own oil production and the requirements of its burgeoning

economic development. In three to five years' time, China will be

supplying no more than two thirds of its energy consumption from home

production. To raise the billions for buying stakes in foreign fields

and paying for new pipeline and maritime transport routes, Beijing

hopes to sell large quantities of military hardware to Arab states

and Iran. Beijing's new policy turn will have a cooling effect on its

relations with Washington relations, as well as with Israel.