Saudi Brigades Massed on Jordanian Frontier

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Saudi Brigades Massed on Jordanian Frontier – Response to Iraqi,

Israeli Movements

24 April: Saudi Arabia denies it has massed 8 brigades on its

Jordanian border following secret intelligence reports of Israeli

troop concentrations on its frontier with Jordan. (The Kingdom of

Jordan is wedged between Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq and Syria.)

Israel denied the Saudi claim Tuesday, April 23. The comeback was

fast: "A responsible source" at the kingdom's defense and aviation

ministry stated that Saudi armed forces units are merely

conducting "routine exercises" in the northwestern region, not

beefing up their troop presence there.

The next step in this unfolding exchange of claims and denials was

another report from Riyadh on Thursday, April 24, that Israeli jets

were flying over Jordan's border with the oil kingdom. Saudi air

defenses were said to be under orders to shoot down any intruding

craft.

DEBKAfile's military analysts have taken due note of Riyadh's public

admission that it fears an Israeli invasion of Jordan. Even more

noteworthy is its timing: 48 hours before Crown Prince Abdullah bin

Abdulaziz travels to President George W. Bush's ranch in Crawford,

Texas.

Here, then, is a transparent Saudi gambit, based on the cynical

exploitation of the Israeli military bugbear. This gambit, in the

view of our analysts, is employed by Riyadh for three purposes:

First, to manufacture tension on the Saudi-Jordanian-Israel borders

in order to back up Abdullah's attempt to railroad Israel as the

generator of military escalation in the region.

Second, as a device to cut short the Saudi crown prince's American

visit. Riyadh-Washington relations have never been so bad. (Read

earlier DEBKA report on this page: Bush-Abdullah talks: To Paper

over Cracks?) Since the Saudi ruler could not wriggle out his

American trip, he needed a pretext for an early departure for home.

Third, Saudi rulers have been forewarned of impending Iraqi troop

movements focusing on Jordan and are taking military precautions to

keep the coming military exchanges from spilling over into home

territory.

Riyadh, while attempting to fabricate a crisis around Jordan's

borders – and pin it on Israel – knows exactly what is really going

on. The Israeli troop presence along the border of the Hashemite

kingdom – which Israeli spokesmen consistently deny – is there with

Amman's consent for the sole purpose of deterring Saddam from

invading Jordan. The Saudis are also perfectly aware that Iraq led

the way in kicking off this round of military moves and that Israel

countered with a blocking tactic.

DEBKAfile 's military sources provide details of the Iraqi troop

movements.

The force Iraq started massing some weeks ago consists of 3-4 of its

7 crack Republican Guard divisions, which are stationed in the

center of the country opposite the Jordanian frontier. They are

fanned out across a 300-sq.km stretch of land, bounded by four

bases: H-3 Main, H-3 Southwest and H-3 Northwest – 350 km. west of

Baghdad - and the big al Baghdadi ground and air base west of the

town of Rutbah.

The Iraqi high command reckons the first American strike, carried

out under the cover of a bombing and missile barrage, will try and

capture this area and take over the four bases - much in the way a

main US base was set up in Kandahar, Afghanistan. From there US

forces will threaten the capital, Baghdad.

The Iraqi response will be to divide their strength into two

contingents. One, led by Saddam Hussein's son, Qusay, will fall back

toward Baghdad; the other will push into Jordan and seize its

eastern region, ready for an eventual move into the capital, Amman.

The Israeli troop concentration the Saudis are referring to – whose

presence Israeli spokesmen deny – is poised to defend Jordan against

this very Iraqi assault.

By his pincer movement, Saddam hopes to crush the American force,

trapping it in an isolated pocket, vulnerable to a blitz of missiles

carrying chemical and biological agents. Simultaneously, Iraqi

missile barrages will be aimed at Israel and US military targets in

the Jewish state, as well as American militaryfacilities in the

Gulf, Kuwait and Qatar.

Iraq is also getting set to counter alternative US tactics. This

week, Baghdad deployed heavy reinforcements of anti-air missile

batteries in the southern and northern no-fly zones patrolled by US

and British allied planes. This move was a preventive measure

against a possible US attempt to seize Iraq's northern and southern

oilfields. The batteries are aimed not only against bombers but also

large-scale helicopters squadrons flying US and British Marines in

from Kuwait, Oman or Turkey.

All these plans are still on American and Iraqi drawing boards.

Saudi, Jordanian and Israeli military planners are also working hard

on contingency plans.

The Americans therefore have no reason to expect a short campaign.

Our military experts estimate the first stage alone will last

between one and two months. Saddam will certainly wield oil as a

weapon. The Saudis have taken steps to reassure Washington that they

have no intention of joining Baghdad in an oil embargo. On Tuesday,

April 23, the Saudi oil minister promised a group of American

businessmen in Washington that his government would continue to keep

oil prices stable and make up for any production shortfall

developing on the world market.

Simultaneously, the Saudi investment authority in Riyadh finally,

after long delays, approved a partnership transaction between

American Chevron-Phillips and the Saudi industrial investment

authority, entailing a $1 billion investment in a new petrochemical

plant in the kingdom.

But these gestures can no longer paper over the deep rift between

Riyadh and Washington, or the inevitability of any major war

confrontation driving the two to opposing sides - with lasting

effect on the region as well as world oil and financial markets.

Already the Saudis are operating on two levels – one reassuring

Washington and other, laying their military cards out on the ground.

The second is bound to cancel out the effect of the first.

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