India Pakistan Capabilities

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Nuclear Fist-Shaking in S. Asia and Mid East

DEBKAfile Special Political-Military Analysis, 15 June, 2002

 

On Wednesday, June 12, out of the blue, the Iraqi foreign ministry

issued a far from routine communiqué: It vilified Israel's launch of

a new spy satellite (Ofek-5 on May 28) as posing a "threat to Arab

national security as a whole…providing additional evidence" of

Israel's "hostile and aggressive intentions towards Arab states" and

exposing its quest to expand its "alien" presence and spread its

hegemony over the region. Arab states were urged to "take all

necessary measures to face and contain the repercussions" of the

missile launch.

After running the Iraqi communiqué, Space Daily noted that India and

Turkey are among the potential customers of the Ofek-5 satellite

intelligence data.

The next day, June 13, the foreign ministry in Baghdad was busy

again. A note was sent off to the UN secretary accusing the United

States of being on the point of a nuclear attack on Iraq. Israel was

charged merely with possession of nuclear weapons – not the

intention to use them, although the Baghdad message pointed out that

Israel had bombed Iraq's nuclear reactor exactly 19 years ago.

The implication is clear: The Israeli space satellite was placed in

orbit in advance of the projected American attack on Iraq. It was

there also to service the Turkish armed forces taking part in that

assault, as well as assisting India in its coming conflict with

Pakistan.

Another vital piece in this menacing mosaic appeared first in

DEBKAfile and DEBKA-Net-Weeklyas early as September 7, 2001, a

report that Israel had been commissioned by India to set up an

electronic fence in Kashmir with six main electronic early warning

stations based on the Israeli-made Green Pine radar system.

These disclosures portend the two major conflicts expected to be

fought this year being the most extensively electronics-based wars

in military history. Both the US campaign against Iraq and the

Indian-Pakistani conflict will unveil missile and surveillance

systems never seen before.

A strong nuclear dimension also appears unavoidable.

On Saturday, June 15, the Washington Post reported Israel had armed

three diesel submarines with newly-designed cruise missiles capable

of carrying nuclear warheads.

On May 11, 2001, thirteen months ago, DEBKA-Net-Weekly, Issue No.

12,revealed:

India's nuclear collaboration plan hinges on the three Israeli 1,925-

ton 800-class German-made Dolphin-class submarines, which are armed

with Israel-designed 1,500-km range Popeye Turbo cruise missiles

capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This flotilla is sought as a

second strike capability for the Indian air force and naval units

present in the Arabian Sea opposite Pakistan. Israel maintains one

or sometimes two of those submarines permanently in Persian Gulf

waters as a sea-launched deterrent force – its second-tier, first

strike capability, against Iran and Iraq.

Picture: Israeli cruise missiles in American publications

This month, on June 7, 2002, DEBKA-Net-Weeklyagain reported that

Israeli Dolphin-class submarines, like other naval and air units,

were permanently using the big air and naval base on Eritrea's Red

Sea Dahlak Archipelago, near the confluence of the Arabian Sea, the

Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.

All of a sudden, for some weeks now, the United States, India,

Pakistan, Israel, Iran and Iraq have become exceptionally outspoken

about war preparations. With uncharacteristic openness, they have

burst into speech on the use of use of nuclear weapons.

The announcement in Washington on Friday, June 14, of the expulsion

of the first secretary at the Iraqi UN mission, Abdul Rahman Saad,

for espionage, was another element in the rhetorical escalation.

All in all, the war of words sounds as though it is nearing the

point of spilling over into deeds.

Most governments have three possible reasons for giving publicity to

the types of weaponry in the hands of adversaries:

1. They are just about ready to make their first military move - in

the case of Iran and Iraq, their military preparations would also

entail a mega-terror attack, for which they need to soften up world

opinion in advance.

2. As a hands-off signal from the potential victim's intelligence

service to the would-be aggressor that "all is known" and reprisals

are store if he goes ahead.

3. When signs of popular unrest or military disaffection against

the leadership of the enemy's camp are detected. Certain revelations

may have the power to whip up outright domestic opposition to the

enemy government.

In this context, Baghdad, conscious that the United States is on the

threshold of a decisive military move, published its intelligence

estimate that America plans a nuclear attack. The Iraqis have no

certain knowledge of the form the American strike will take, whether

nuclear bombs or only tactical devices, but it hopes exposure of

this intent will put the Americans off whatever they plan.

India and Pakistan may have crossed the point of no return in their

war plans. It is now evident that the visits paid by defense

secretary Donald Rumsfeld last week to New Delhi and Islamabad did

little more than postpone the eruption for which both nuclear

nations have set their faces.

In the Middle East, a military clash between Israel on one side and

Syria and the Lebanese Hizballah is very much in the cards. Since

Damascus and Baghdad are bound by mutual defense treaties, the

Hizballah is militarily affiliated to Teheran and Damascus - and all

these parties are in close military and political alliance with the

Palestinians – an Israel-Syrian border confrontation could quickly

light the fire of war under the entire region. The belligerents in

this case would proliferate to encompass the United States, possibly

Britain, as well as Israel, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, the

Hizballah and the Palestinians.

India and Pakistan are fully engaged in this war of words. It cannot

be ruled out therefore that a Middle East war will be accompanied by

a war on the subcontinent. DEBKAfile's military experts estimate

that September is the next likely date for these chain-reaction

conflicts to erupt into full-scale belligerence.

The nuclear dimension of the India-Pakistan conflict is self-evident.

DEBKAfile's military sources on the Indian subcontinent report that

behind the smiling, relaxed welcome the Pentagon leaders received

from Indian and Pakistan leaders, they were shocked to find both

smoothly discussing nuclear combat and the death of many millions in

this war – their estimate is as high as 10-15 million - as

inevitable and acceptable. India's military chiefs and its Kashmir

commanders are described as clamoring for the Vajpayee to go to war

without delay. Intelligence reports from the field indicate that

India's front-line troops, including air force and naval units, are

tired of waiting for the government in New Delhi to give the signal

and growing restive.

There are similar pressures in Pakistan. In Islamabad, high Pakistan

officers told Rumsfeld that if India attacks, Washington had better

be prepared for Pakistan to rally Muslims from all over Asia in a

holy jihad against India. Having invested so much in an Islamic

nuclear bomb, Pakistan would "lose face" if it was not used.

An India-Pakistan war game played a few weeks ago at the US Naval

War College charted this scenario:

An al Qaeda terror attack triggers an Indian-Pakistani war. India

invades Pakistan; Pakistan, whose army is half the size of India's,

falls back, firing off 3-4 nuclear missiles to cover its retreat and

stop the Indian advance; India retaliates with 10-12 nuclear

missiles.

Israel's border with Syria and Lebanon is just as incendiary.

Week after week, President Bashar Assad has been building up the

military tension since early April. DEBKAfile's military sources

report that Syria and the Hizballah have in those two months set up

a missile wall along their border with Israel, made up of thousands

of projectiles capable of pounding all of northern Israel and parts

of its central heartland. Israel has held back from firing a single

shot to interfere with this buildup out of a misconceived tactical

reluctance to open a second front while its military hands are full

keeping Palestinian terrorists from attack Israeli civilians.

Encouraged by Israel's passivity, the Syrian leader in early June

ordered his army chiefs to extend its missile line along the Syrian-

Lebanese frontier, including also the Syrian-Israel dividing line

cutting through the Golan Heights. Part of this new array forms a

defensive loop around the strategic Lebanese Beqaa valley, where the

most important cluster of Syrian, Iranian and Hizballah bases is

situated. For Syria, the Lebanese Beqaa is its main line of defense

against an assault on Damascus from the west.

A number of Israeli security and military chiefs disclosed last week

that Israel was on the point of a strike against Syria in late April

but pulled back at the eleventh hour. Their tone was one of

frustration. Since late April, Syria has not let the grass grow

under its feet. A military strike now would have to contend not just

with one line of missiles but two, a far costlier operation in

military and civilian casualties than it would have been six weeks

ago.

The conviction is gaining among Israel's military strategists that,

as the American campaign against Baghdad draws near, it will be

harder to disentangle the Iraqi front from the Syrian-Palestinian

arena, with possible Iranian involvement. This means that the

delayed attack against Syria will force Israel to fight on three or

four fronts - not just two, against Iraq and Iran as well, both of

whom are possessed of limited nuclear capabilities.

Under the shadow of these darkening clouds, the global war on terror

declared by US President George W. Bush is fast losing its focal

edge.