Why is India building ICBM?

[Guest guest]

I found this interesting piece on PakNews.com

The fact is the West is trying to Force

India into the position of THE ENEMY.

We can easily foil this plot because a

majority of Americans like India, but

we must keep reminding them of the truth.Vrin

 

"As discussed earlier, a significant number of

Indian strategists believe that India needs a deterrent

capability against the United States. If the Surya

achieves a range of 12,000 kms, India would have

the capability of positioning the missile at

New Delhi and striking U.S. targets that lie on,

and north of, a range-arc running from about Raleigh,

North Carolina to Omaha, Nebraska to Eugene, Oregon.

www.FAS.org

Indian Nuclear ICBMs Threaten America

Why is India building Intercontinental

Nuclear Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs)?

Is India going to attack America and

Europe one day with its long-range Nuclear Weapons?

India Building ICBMs to Deter the West

"Another [indian] commentator,

well-known defense analyst Brahma Chellaney,

reiterated his call recently for India to

develop Intercontinental (Range) Ballistic

Missiles (ICBMs) capable of deterring the

United States and the West in future crisis

scenarios. Echoing commentator Mattoo's analysis,

Chellaney notes in an article titled "Value of Power"

in the 19 May 1999 edition of The Hindustan Times

(Internet version) that "nuclear deterrence still

relies on destroying enemy cities."

"Chellaney cites U.S. and NATO activities

in Kosovo/Serbia as a possible model for a future

threat to India, a topic he has previously addressed

(see India and Pakistan Resume Flight Tests).

"But can nuclear India prevent a Yugoslavia

from happening to it?," he asks. His response:

"No, unless India builds intercontinental ballistic missiles."

Says Chellany: "Immunity from high-tech

[Western] aggression can only come if a country

has the capability to hit the homeland of the

attacking force.…if India, a weaker willed nation

than many, is to gain true strategic autonomy,

free itself from external pressure and be a global

player, it will have to develop ICBMs, the symbols

of power and punishment."

<b>India's ICBMs Can Destroy American and

European Cities</b>

India's Surya (Sun). "While the status of

the Surya ICBM program is unclear, there are many

reports that indicate that the development of this

system is underway, with development probably being

initiated in 1994. According to one Indian source,

the Surya could be ready to begin flight testing as

early as 1997. At this point, there are still several

conflicting reports regarding the Surya's configuration.

The most plausible report claims that the Surya will

probably be based on the components of the polar space

launch vehicle (PSLV). As for its armament, the Surya's

warhead is likely to be composed of essentially the same

technology as that used in the maneuvering warhead of the

Agni. In short, the only thing that seems to be agreed upon

is that the Surya will be composed of components perfected

for the Agni IRBM and for India's space-launch vehicles

and that it will have a range between 8,000 and 12,000 kms.

"As discussed earlier, a significant number of

Indian strategists believe that India needs a deterrent

capability against the United States. If the Surya

achieves a range of 12,000 kms, India would have

the capability of positioning the missile at

New Delhi and striking U.S. targets that lie on,

and north of, a range-arc running from about Raleigh,

North Carolina to Omaha, Nebraska to Eugene, Oregon.

(See Figure 4-5). India's geography would also allow

it to launch the missile 500-600 kms north of New Delhi

and push the U.S. range-arc that much further towards

the south or allow it to compensate somewhat for a

system that may not be able to achieve a 12,000 km range.

"If the Surya should prove to have a range

of 12,000 kms, its unveiling will pose problems for

India since initially the United States can be

expected to react harshly to its existence.

Therefore, a pacing item for India's unveiling

of the Surya likely hinges on the status of

India's nuclear warhead development and the

perfection of the Agni missile system. Once

it has confidence in its thermonuclear warhead

and the Agni's re-entry vehicle, the Surya could

be unveiled and tested quickly if Indian

policymakers judge that it is needed and

are prepared to accept the international

heat for such a development. At that point,

India would not require very many years before

it could field a small ICBM force. Obviously,

the development of the Surya is tied to the Agni.

As long as the United States can keep Agni's test

program in a state of suspension, the development

of the Surya will also be slowed.

"India, a land rife with serious internal problems,

appears capable of surprising the world by emerging as nuclear

capable nation with ICBMs in the 2000-2010 time frame

(depending on how much time the program is delayed due

to U.S. diplomatic pressure and MTCR impediments).

Even if the indigenous development effort is slowed,

India has the technological capability of emerging as a

nuclear armed power with ICBMs in a window of about 5 to

8 years from the time it makes a decision to do so.

In addition, as discussed in Chapter 2, there seems

to be some possibility that India might in the future

be able to obtain the mobile Topol M ICBMs (SS-X-27s)

from Russian sources.

"Although it is not believed that India intends

to use missile capabilities actually to strike the United

States, it may be tempted to wave it as a deterrent gesture

in cases where it feels the United States is interfering

with its vital national interests. At the same time,

India is a poor country that needs economic ties with

the United States. Consequently, India would have to feel

hard pressed before it engaged in direct confrontational

actions. Of perhaps greater concern is the fact that India

needs cash, but its options for exporting defense goods to

help offset its security costs are limited.

"Missiles, software, nuclear technology, and

related products are among the most salable defense items

that India will soon produce. Although India is not likely

to act in a totally irresponsible manner in transferring

these technologies, it is conceivable that its definition

of acceptable transfers may well differ from that held by

the United States. As a complicating factor, corruption in

India is a significant problem, which raises the possibility

that some of this sensitive technology could be transferred

to other parties outside of official channels. Consequently,

India could well become a contributing source to the spread of

proliferation-related technologies. While the case should not

be overstated, there is some risk that the Indo-American

friction that may result from this situation could sour

relations and push India into aligning its foreign policy

with other states that are actively seeking to frustrate U.S.

interests in Asia."--(www.FAS.org).

 

 

 

Thank you.

Pakistan News Service

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