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China's Rising ForcesJane's International Defense Review | August 2002China's

modernization efforts are complex and far-reaching, aiming to achieve improved

warfighting capabilities without overdependence on imported systems, writes

Yihong Zhang The perceptions shaping China's current military posture date from

about 1995. Bejing then became increasingly aware that Taiwan's status as a

separate nation, whose independence has never been recognized, may one day

achieve true independence. China made the strategic decision of "speeding up

preparation for military conflicts and reinforcing the military deterrence

against Taiwan", according to its own military treatises. The 1996 Taiwan

Strait crisis raised military tension to a high level during a series of

missiles tests by the People's Republic of China (PRC), and the deployment of a

US carrier battlegroup further stimulated the Chinese military, which formed the

impression that, if conflict breaks out in this region, US involvement would be

inevitable. As a consequence, a movement developed to study and learn from US

armed forces and a series of treatises published by the Chinese military

strategists almost all said that future military exercises should take the US

forces as the combat targets. "If China can defeat the US forces, other

countries will be no match for the Chinese military". For this purpose, China

has established a training base for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in Inner

Mongolia, the largest of its kind in Asia. At this training center, the enemy

force in training programs mainly acts out the role of US forces. In the areas

of weapon system replacement, training and education, China has started to make

practical preparations for military struggle against Taiwan with an attitude of

"combat readiness". Strategically, China maintains the theory, "Southeast front

first and west front econd" ('Dong Huan Xi Ji' in Chinese), in which the number

one target enemy is Taiwan; then the US and Japanese forces, followed by India,

Vietnam and the separatists in Xinjiang. This reasoning has caused China to

divert more financial resources to such key areas as the air force, navy and

strategic missile forces as well as special force units in the army. Military

budget increases have naturally leaned toward those forces. China's military

budget has been increasing at a double digit rate for 12 consecutive years. The

figures published in the Chinese official media clearly indicate that China's

budget this year is expected to reach US$16 billion, while western observers

tend to believe the actual number is at least double the officially disclosed

figure. At one US congressional hearing, the CIA testified that, in the coming

five years, China's military budget would double. During the ninth Five-year

Plan (1996-2000), China's officially publicized military budget was US$58.9

billion. If the budget doubles during the 10th Five-year Plan, it would mean

the money that China is going to invest in the military will reach US$118

billion. New weapon development Due to the increased military funding, the pace

of new weapon development has visibly ncreased in China. China adopted a dual

track system in order to accelerate the development of new weapon systems; this

requires China develop its own products while at the same time importing Russian

weapon systems. The main purpose of doing so is to guarantee the effectiveness

of the weapon systems in case of war. In addition, a low-high combination of

domestic and Russian weapon systems can be established, which will help to

reduce the number of imported weapon systems or avoid over-dependence on

foreign suppliers. For instance, in the air force, at the same time as

importing Russian Su-27SK and Su-30MKK combat aircraft, China has this year

completed development of the J-10 fighter and JH-7A fighter-bomber. The factor

that has delayed China's development of its own fighters was its inability to

develop and produce an advanced gas turbine engine. The development of the

WS10A turbofan engine for the J-10 has been going on for over 10 years. It

completed a trial flight earlier this year at the No.606 Research Institute in

Shenyang. But this engine does not power the J-10. In 2001, China and Russia

signed the contract for importing AL-31F turbofan engines. Some 54 out of the

contracted 300 'AL-31F For J-10' were delivered to China at the end of 2001.

These turbofan engines, two of which power the Su-27, are being installed in

the J-10. The low state of airborne radar development in China was another

factor that delayed the production of J-10. Once again, China turned to Russia

for help. In the last two years, the Russian Phazotron Design Bureau provided

China with Zhemchung and ZHUK 8II multifunctional radar systems. The latter is

used for upgrading the Chinese-made J-8 II, while the related technologies of

the former may be used for the development of J-10. Zhemchung radar systems

will enable the search capability of Chinese fighters to increase to over

100km. Fighters equipped with Zhemchung systems will then not only be able to

track and attack multi-air targets simultaneously, but also mount precision

ground attack missions with guided weapons. The radar system is expected to

push the China-made fighters close to the standard of the third-generation

western fighters. Judging from the number of AL-31F's being imported, at least

300 J-10 fighters will be in effective service in the Chinese forces after

2005. Following the Su-27SK's upgrade, a high-low combination of Su-27SK and

J-10 can be achieved in the air force. Fighter-bomber upgrades China has

started the JH-7A fighter-bomber upgrade project. Production of the first batch

of 40 JH-7As is expected to start after 2003. The trial flights of JH-7A

prototypes will start this year. China also gets help from Russia on the JH-7A,

as it can co-ordinate with Su-30MKK in the air-to-ground role. Russia provided

KAB-500L laser guided bombs and X-31P anti-radiation missiles for JH-7A. In

addition, China has purchased from Russia 20 sets of large diameter radar

antenna designed by Phazotron, which has some relation to the development of

JH-7A. Deployment of Su-30MKK and JH-7A in the Chinese Air Force for the first

time enables it to launch accurate long-distance strikes against ground

targets, so that a progressive strategy of "balanced offense and defense" (Gong

Fang Jian Bei) can be implemented. In early 2001 the Chinese official media

broadcast television images of Su-30MKK launching -59M TV-command guided

air-to-surface missiles at night. The deployment of this missile, with a

maximum range of 105km, is another symbol of China's ability to apply pressure

on Taiwan. China has been trying to produce Su-27SK, JH-7A and J-10

simultaneously in Shenyang, Xian and Chengdu, so the aviation industry can

achieve balanced development in the northeast, southwest and northwest regions

of the country. The Russian specialists helping China in producing Su-27SK told

IDR they were surprised at the advanced technological standard of the modern

western facilities of China's aerospace industry. They rate the facilities and

equipment as better than that in similar Russian enterprises. The JH-7A

facilities are equipped with computer-controlled machine tools made in the

West. Despite all this, Su-27SK, J-10 and JH-7A still reflect the design

concepts of the 1970s and 1980s. Whether or not they will be deployed in the

combat units in large numbers is still a matter of some controversy. For this

reason, the Chengdu and Shenyang Aircraft Companies have started the research

and development on the next generation fighter internally. No.606 Research

Institute has begun to experiment with Thrust Vector Control technologies on

the WS10A turbofan engine. Given the military aerospace facilities in China and

current production conditions of operating at overload, IDR estimates that by

2005-06, the Chinese Air Force could receive another 35-40 JH-7A, about 60-80

domestically-made Su-27SK, 50 J-10 and 80 Su-30MKK, a net increase of 155 to

190 Chinese standard third-generation military aircraft. In addition, the

production of military aircraft has entered a sustainable and stable stage, and

it will continue to develop steadily by this trend during the 10th five-year

plan. Navy development plans Special attention has been given to naval

development in China. China is currently working hard to develop larger surface

ships, SSBN, SSN and conventional submarines, aiming at acquiring the capability

to blockade Taiwan and deter the involvement of the US Pacific Fleet in the

Taiwan Strait in the next 10 years. For this purpose, the development of SSBNs

has been given priority so as to build up new nuclear deterrence. In 2001,

after two years of upgrading work, type 092G SSBN (G: Gai Lian, meaning

modification) was recommissioned in the navy. It is believed the vessel

received the JL-1A ballistic missile, the effective range of which is said to

be up to 2,800km. In order to reduce noise, 092G is coated with a new type of

sonar absorbing material, and installed on it is the new sonar system similar

to the DUUX -5. In 1999, in a report carried out by the PLA Daily it was

strongly suggested that China had started to build the new-generation SSBN.

This type of SSBN, called Project 094 in the Chinese military, will be equipped

with 16 JL-2 SLBMs with effective range of 8,000km. It is predicted that, by

2010, at least two Project 094 SSBNs will be in commissioned service. The

land-based version, DF-31, is already in service in the Second Artillery Force

- which has also established a new long-range mobile strategic missile brigade.

Responding to the US National Missile Defense (NMD) program, China is conducting

a series of upgrading projects on the DF-31 warheads. The missiles will be

installed with a new decoy system, making them more difficult to identify and

intercept. Experiments are ongoing. Launching of the new generation SSBN build

project indicates that manufacture of the new SSN began before 1999. China's

SSBN and SSNs are use the same kind of nuclear powerplant. In addition, China

has imported sonar communication systems form Belarus and heavyweight torpedoes

from Kazakhstan, suggesting the integration of SSN was begun earlier than 1999.

In May this year, China ordered eight Kilo 636 submarines armed with Club-S

surface-to-surface missiles (SSMs) from Russia. It is planned that the

submarines will be delivered to China within five years. Because of this,

Russia is planning to produce these submarines simultaneously in different

shipyards. As in the case in the aerospace industry, China will not be giving

up the Song-class conventional submarine-upgrading project. The first two

stages of the upgrade work have been completed. Starting with the third vessel,

the Song (Type 039) submarine is very close to the French Agosta 90B in external

shape. The height of the sail has been lowered in order to increase stability

underwater. It is equipped with a new weapon control system. Song and Kilo 636

will also form a type of high-low combination. What has perplexed the Chinese

Navy for a long time in the development of large surface ships is propulsion

systems. The official media eventually acknowledged that the new-generation

Luhai-class (No.167) destroyer had steam turbines and accidents had occurred

due to the leakage of the boiler during long deployments. In 1999, China signed

a contract with the Ukraine covering the import of GTE80 (DN80) gas-turbines,

and is currently trying to achieve license-production of the system. At the

same time, China started the 052B large destroyer project. Two 6,000-ton class

052B destroyers are now under construction at the Shanghai No.436 navy

shipyard. The 052B resembles the British Type 45 destroyer in shape. It is

believed that 052B will be installed with China-made or Russia-made

vertical-launch system (VLS) surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) in order to

strengthen long-distance air-defense capabilities. The candidates include the

Russia-made RIF-M and China-made FD2000 SAM. Both of the missiles have an

effective range of over 100km. The design of 052B embodies stealth concepts. In

order to meet the needs in the transitional period, China purchased from Russia

a further two Type 956ME destroyers, armed with longer range upgraded 3M80E

supersonic SSMs. By 2006, China will have seven 6,000-ton class large

destroyers and have established a substantial naval force.

Chinese Army digitization The reforms in the system of the Chinese Army have

also been deepening. The Chinese military is deeply aware of the difficulty in

modernizing the whole army of 2.5 million soldiers. Because of this, the system

being implemented is the "one army multisystems" (Yi Jun Duo Zhi) model. The

capability of rapid reaction and digital battle was reinforced first in the key

group armies (GA). However, due to the immense size of the army, even if only

one-tenth of the personnel - that is, 250,000 - were mechanized or digitalized,

the influence on the Asia-Pacific region military balance would be very

significant. To reinforce the capability of the military in handling emergent

incidents and launching assaults across the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese

conducted a "building block" reform concerning the establishment of the army.

More 'divisions' were restructured into 'brigades'. For instance, in the No.27

GA and No.40 GA of the army, brigades have replaced all the divisions. No.65 GA

has begun to implement a mixed establishment of divisions and brigades, aimed at

building up the Chinese version of 'medium-size combat force'. For this purpose,

industry has supplied the army with more Type 92 wheeled armored cars. The Type

92 is fast becoming the most important piece of equipment for the army in

establishing light mechanized brigades. The wheeled armored car has entered

Xizang and Xingjiang Military Command. To deal with the Xinjiang and Tibetan

separatists, the No.52 Mountain Brigade of the Xizang Command and the No.6

Infantry Division of the Xinjiang Command conducted anti-terrorism activities

in the exercises, which helped to improve the rapid reaction ability of the

combat units. On the basis of the No.1 Division of the No.1 GA of Nanjing

Military Command, the Chinese Army recently established a new amphibious

mechanized division armed with 63A light amphibious tanks. The scale of

experimental digital forces is much larger than the West expected. In the No.6

Armored Division of No.38 GA, combat experiments of the digital artillery force

and digital tank force have obviously accelerated. This armored division is

armed with a new generation of Type 98 main battle tanks. Each military command

has established the special force units. Battlefield picture transmission and

digital communication systems are being used by those troops. However, the

Chinese military force is now facing its biggest obstacle, the overall low

quality of the personnel. In the original planning, the Su-27SK - made in

Shenyang - would be the first to be deployed in the No.1 Fighter Division based

in Anshan, Liaoning Province. To date, only 10 pilots have completed flight

training for the new fighters. This may affect the planned deployment of the

fighters in the relevant combat units. No.1 Fighter Division is the A Class

division in the Chinese Air Force and is equipped with the best J-8II fighters.

In addition, due to the lack of practical battle experience and the ability of

the soldiers to endure hardship is much weaker than those in the Korean War

years. Additionally, there exists a general sentiment of fear of the US forces.

The first decade of this century will be crucial for the development of the

Chinese military. They will gradually complete the process of changing from

mechanization to digitization, and attempt to establish regional military

advantage against the Taiwanese forces.

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