beware of china

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THE DRAGON IN THE INDIAN OCEAN By William C. Triplett, II

http://www.jamestown.org/pubs/view/cwe_003_004_002.htmIn the fall of 1950 the

Chinese People's Liberation Army began its invasion and conquest of the Tibet

Plateau. Since that time, outside attention has quite properly focused on the

suffering of the Tibetan people. A million Tibetans, one person in six, died as

a result of the Communist Chinese occupation. Art, medicine, poetry, religious

teachings, music, literature, mathematics, science--the results of two thousand

years of high culture--were all destroyed in mindless waves of political madness

generated by the Chinese Communist Party. Lost in the horror of the Tibetan

people's torment has been any understanding of the geopolitical menace behind

the PLA's march onto the Plateau. World leaders should have noticed that

Beijing began the Tibet campaign at the very moment that the PLA was rescuing

North Korean communism from a just retribution at the hands of United Nations

forces. Even against a people as unprepared for war as the Tibetans, the PLA

required a lot of manpower and scarce military resources to conquer an area

roughly the size of Western Europe at the same time its forces were engaged in

a major struggle elsewhere. Beijing's willingness, in essence, to prosecute a

two-front war should have set off alarm bells in foreign capitals, or at least

caused war planners and net assessment specialists there to wonder what the

future value of Tibet might be to the communist regime in China. But if it

didn't set off alarm bells then, it should now. Because, having sat on the

Plateau for fifty years, Beijing has signaled that the time has come to exploit

it as part of a long term game of military, political and economic domination of

South Asia. At a cost of billions of dollars, Beijing has started building the

third and final leg of a military railroad across the Tibet Plateau. The first

two sections, from Lanzhou to Xining and Xining to Golmud, were completed in

the late 1950s and late 1970s, respectively. Those two sections were relatively

easy. The 700 miles from Golmud to Lhasa will be a major undertaking, one

involving 286 bridges, 10 major tunnels and miles of permafrost. The entire

length of the Lanzhou to Lhasa line will be around 1,500 miles or the distance

from Toronto to Miami. The railroad will open previously unrealized strategic,

tactical and conventional possibilities for the PLA to direct military

firepower toward South Asia and beyond. With this railroad in place the PLA

will have excellent hiding places for its new rail-mobile ICBM, the DF-31A. If

the PLA follows the Russian lead and rail-bases its ICBMs, each missile train

could carry up to thirty nuclear warheads capable of destroying any strategic

target in Japan and many in the Western United States. In eastern China, it is

the PLA's practice to move its theater ballistic missiles, the DF 11 and the DF

15, by rail to staging areas prior to dispersal to pre-surveyed launch sites.

The Tibet Plateau Railroad will give the PLA the opportunity to threaten India

with theater ballistic missiles in the same way it now threatens Taiwan. From a

military logistics standpoint, rail has an enormous advantage over roads in

moving heavy equipment, supplies and manpower. In effect, this means the

permanent militarization of the entire plateau into a staging ground for

aggression into South Asia. With even a single line, the PLA could move about

12 infantry divisions to Central Tibet in 30 days to meet up with their

pre-positioned equipment. In short, Beijing's new rail line into Tibet

represents an enormous political and military challenge to India. But the rail

line is only part of Beijing's larger geopolitical strategy for dominating

South Asia, the various pieces of which are just now coming into focus. If the

Indian Ocean and South Asia are looked at like the face of a clock with India

sitting in the middle of the dial, then Tibet is at High Noon. As the following

survey demonstrates, it becomes apparent that Beijing is increasingly making

inroads in these sectors while gaining influence and power. Moving clockwise:

Three O'clockIn late December 2002, China and Bangladesh signed a "Defense

Cooperation Agreement" which covers at least military training and defense

production. There's no reference in the agreement as to whom China and

Bangladesh might be cooperating against or what weapons might be jointly

produced. The Bangladesh Army is equipped with Chinese tanks, the Navy has

Chinese frigates and missile boats and the Bangladesh Air Force flies Chinese

fighter jets. China has paid US$25 million for a "China-Bangladesh Friendship

Center". Five O'clockThe relationship between Burma and China can be

characterized as something between a client state and a satellite, not unlike

that which Moscow had with Eastern Europe during the Soviet days. With the

recent exception of some Russian MIG-29s, the entire Burmese military is

Chinese-equipped. Without military and political support from Beijing, the

Burmese military junta would probably be overthrown in an afternoon; it is

universally hated by the Burmese people. In return, Burma has granted the PLA

basing rights at its islands in the Andaman Sea, where it can spy on Indian

space launch activities. According to some reports, Chinese assistance to

Burmese port improvements may presage the arrival of China's new generation of

nuclear submarines. Six O'clockSri Lanka's Army, Navy and Air Force also are at

least partially equipped by Beijing, including armored personnel carriers,

missile boats and fighter jets. This arrangement also includes training and

parts supplies, and provides the Chinese with opportunities to influence local

military officers. China also seems to have a higher level of physical presence

in the Indian Ocean's various island nations than would be warranted by the

levels of trade and other economic activity. Seven to Nine O'clockIn recent

years there has been a big upswing in military exchanges between Beijing and

those African nations having coastlines on the Indian Ocean. For example, in

November of 2002 the PLA donated about US$2 million to the Mozambique Army in

the form of trucks, boots, clothing and other supplies. The same

thin-edge-of-the-wedge tactics are being used up and down the east coast of

Africa. Ten O'clockPakistan has the same relationship with China that Burma

has--something between a client state and a satellite. Islamabad's entire

strategic weapons system--fissile materials, weaponization and missile delivery

system--could in fact be stamped "Made in China". In the spring of 2002, PLA

General Xiong Guangkai signed defense cooperation and defense production

agreements with Pakistan. Cooperation against whom and production of what were

not revealed. Most recently it has become apparent that Beijing is secretly

fostering the Pakistan-North Korea nuclear weapons for long-range missiles

swap. Beijing is also investing over US$2 billion in a naval base at Gwadar on

the Arabian Sea (near Karachi), which, within a decade, could become another

nuclear submarine or even aircraft carrier homeport. Chinese firms are

constructing the facility and the roads from the base that lead northward

through the Karakoram Highway to the PRC. Communist Chinese leader Mao Zedong

is famous for his idea that guerrillas can win by "surrounding the cities from

the countryside." Looking at a map of the Indian Ocean, it is apparent that

Beijing has had a long-term geostrategic action plan that is a variation on

this theme. In this case India is being surrounded by smaller neighboring

states as Beijing slowly builds up its military strength and influence. Delhi

is not completely awake to this threat, but at least one eye is partially open.

For example, even though the various actions of Pakistan in Kashmir raise anger

levels, some critical elements of the Indian elite are beginning to understand

that their Pakistani problems represent classic proxy warfare. Islamabad is to

be blamed for being a pawn of Beijing, but it is still just a pawn. To what

end, one wonders, has Beijing been making such an enormous and expensive effort

over five decades? China faces no external security threats. India does not sell

strategic weapons to Taiwan, for example, nor does it seek naval bases for

nuclear submarines in the South China Sea. The conclusion is inescapable that

Beijing has a Grand Design for political, military and economic dominance over

peoples and territories extending from the Sea of Japan to the Arabian Sea. And

those who are not dominant, of course, are destined to become subservient.

William C. Triplett, II is a defense writer in Washington, and is the co-author

of Year of the Rat, and Red Dragon Rising.

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