gulf war 2 - lessons for India

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Gulf War II: Military lessons for India By Dr Subhash Kapila Gulf War II is in

full swing for over a week now. The United States began clearing the paths to

Gulf War II even before it launched operations in Afghanistan in December 2001.

Soon after 9/11, an intense debate took place within the United States corridors

of power that 9/11 provided an adequate alibi for launching a pre-emptive war

against Iraq. The hawks within the Bush administration had to content

themselves with the war on Afghanistan, as no direct evidence was available

linking Iraq with 9/11 events. President Bush enunciated his 'Axis of Evil'

doctrine classifying Iraq, Iran and North Korea as members of this axis. Sept

11 did not yield any direct evidence linking these three countries with the

diabolical crime. Notably, 9/11 did yield significant pointers of the

involvement of the United States own creation of 'Axis of Evil', namely Saudi

Arabia and Pakistan. The Bush Administration ignored these linkages. Gulf War

II - The United States Rationale:The United States justifications and rationale

for Gulf War II followed sequentially, with some over-laps the following logic:

* Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and endangered global and

regional security * Iraq was linked to the Islamic terrorism network of Osama

bin Laden and the Al Qaeda. * Iraq could pass on WMD assets to Islamic Jehadis.

* Regime change was a necessity to pre-empt all of the above and 'liberate' the

Iraqi masses under suppression from Saddam. The United States has till date

been unable to provide any concrete evidence in support of its charges against

Iraq. Iraq lay prostrate since Gulf War I under 12 years of UN sanctions and

daily bombardments by the US and British Air Forces for the same 12 years. UN

inspection teams either did not offer any evidence. In United States reasoning,

all of the above posed a significant military threat to United States national

security interests. 'Wars of Pre-emption', a new coinage in United States

strategic vocabulary was now to be used as an instrument of United States

foreign and strategic policy. Having taken recourse to a 'War of Pre-emption',

the United States from mid-2002 commenced preparations. Recourse to the United

Nations route in the following months provided cover to US military

preparations. The remainder sequence of events till Gulf War II in progress are

well known. Gulf War II- Some Distinctive Characteristics:The following

characteristics distinctively mark the nature and impulses which led the United

States to launch Gulf War II: 'Wars of Pre-emption' were to became an accepted

part of United States strategy. 'Regime Changes' in other countries would also

justify United States' 'Wars of Pre-emption' in future. 'National Security

Threats' in United States perceptions could range from human rights causes to

environmental threats. The United States was not obliged to obtain United

Nations' approval or concurrence to launch America's 'Wars of Pre-emption'. In

American perceptions, the role of the United Nations in conflict resolution and

conflict management was irrelevant. The Unites States had no use for security

and regional organisations like NATO, WEU and the European Union or Arab League

if they did not ditto US decisions. In United States 'Wars of Pre-emption', it

looks that economic muscle would be used against the 'Coalition of the

Unwilling' For instance, France and Russia to be excluded from Iraqi

reconstruction contracts and a re-constituted UN food-for-oil project

pertaining to Iraq. Nations all over the globe have to take into account these

new definitions of United States strategic policies and American national

interests. It would not be far fetched to analyse, that in the future, the

United States policy of 'Wars of Pre-emption' could also be used in aid of its

allies or favoured nations, or also in the furtherance of interests of these

strategic partners, where they synchronised with American national interests.

The connotations of the above logic are ominous. Gulf War II-Military

Characteristics: Gulf War II, like Gulf War I is marked by the following major

military characteristics: Overwhelming use of air power both in terms of

strategic softening-up of the enemy's military infrastructure, strategic assets

and in ground attack role. Preponderant use of Cruise missiles with extensive

stand-off capabilities for the above roles. Greater reliance on sea-based

platforms and minimal use of land-bases of strategic partners. Use of high

technology to enhance day and night and all weather operations. Military

Implications for India: India needs to take note of both the distinctive

characteristics of the United States rationale and impulses for 'Wars of

Pre-emption' and also the military characteristics. While the United States and

India are not set on any collision course, it does not take long for

international equations to change. India is an emerging regional power with

aspirations for a global role. In the pursuit of such goals, India's actions

could contradict American national interests. As it is one of the overall

objectives of United States strategic policies in Asia states: 'Prevent the

rise of a regional hegemon. Any political Asian hegemon would seek to undermine

the US role in Asia _ the domination of the region by a hostile power would pose

a global challenge and threaten the current international order.' (RAND, Project

US Air Force Report 2001.) Any emergence of a regional power even when

functioning peacefully in its own natural pre-eminence in the region is bound

to be misconstrued as hegemonic. Further, the 'perception of being hegemonic

lies in the eye of the beholder.' The United States in some distant future

could view India as hegemonic. There are other countries too who may now be

tempted to resort to the precedent set by the United States. India cannot

mortgage its national security to future pious intentions of any major power.

Therefore, India in terms of lessons of Gulf War II needs to put into

implementation steps which could deter any wars of pre-emption against her. The

following strategic imperatives advocated in my earlier papers bear repetition:

ICBMs: India must acquire ICBM capabilities under a crash programme. SLBMs: The

third leg of India's nuclear triad must become operational. Aircraft Carriers:

India needs at least four aircraft carriers, three operational and fourth in

dry dock. Anti- missile Systems: A top most priority for India in large numbers

to intercept both cruise and other missiles. Air Defence Systems: Multi layered

systems in terms of technology, ranges, manual and automation are required.

Military Satellites: Dedicated to the Armed Forces for day and night and all

weather surveillance. India has the money to afford all of the above, it only

has to exhibit the will to have these acquisitions despite pressure from any

quarter. Historically and contemporarily two stark facts stand out, which need

to be noted by India: Japan would not have been the victim of atomic bombings,

if it too had the capacity to do the same. Iraq would not have been subjected

to Gulf War II if it had credible WMD capabilities. Why is North Korea with

proven WMD being not subjected to similar treatment as Iraq? The answers are

obvious and it is these that must prompt and galvanise India to initiate a

crash programme for achievement of the recommendations made above. India has

pressing strategic imperatives to upgrade and expand her strategic assets -

that itself would be the first demonstration of India's will in strategic

matters. (The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs

analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis

Group. He can be reached at drsubhashkapila @) Courtesy Saag.org

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