reassessing the chinese threat by claud arpi

[Guest guest]

Reassessing the Chinese threat - Claude Arpi on RediffApril 21,

2003http://www.rediff.com/news/2003/apr/21guest.htmThe new Chinese leadership

has just taken over the reins of the most populous nation in the world. Already

many dark clouds are appearing in the sky of the Middle Empire. With the Iraq

war nearing its end, what is going to happen during the next few months is

anybody's guess. However, it is certain that the world will not be the same.

The forces set in motion by the American operations will have far-reaching

repercussions the world over. India and China will not be spared and the new

Chinese bosses might have to take new directions on several matters. First of

all, in their relations with the United States. A 130-page report prepared for

Donald Rumsfeld, the US secretary of state for defense and entitled Indo-US

military relationship: expectations and perceptions, was recently partially

leaked byJane's Defense Review. When it reached Beijing, it must have left Hu

Jintao and his colleagues pensive. According to the department of defence

analysts, the US and India should be forging a long-term defence and security

alliance aimed at containing China. Both Asian nations are acknowledged as

emerging global powers. The report believes: 'China represents the most

significantthreat to both countries' security in the future as well as an

economic and military competitor.'Several of 82 senior US and Indian officials

interviewed, mostly military personnel, all closely linked with bilateral

security relations between Washington and Delhi were of the view that 'if China

emerges as a major power, the USA needs to havefriends -- preferably friends who

share the same values.' A US admiral told the interviewer: 'The USA and India

both view China as a strategic threat and share an interest in understanding

Chinese strategic intent, though we do not discuss this publicly.' The

conclusion was: 'We [the US] want a friend in 2020 that will be capable of

assisting the US militarily to deal with a Chinese threat.' Though the views of

the US and Indian generals seem 'strikingly similar,' the threat is different

for the two countries. The US sees China more as a rival for its economic

supremacy, while India has a serious problem at its borders.For example, the

report points out that China has resumed, after a two-decade gap, the supply of

weapons to various insurgent groups fighting in northeastern India (see recent

bombings in Assam). This assumes a serious significance for India with its long

border with Tibet. The American analysts nevertheless believe that, both nations

are under Chinese threat and should join hands, India being the 'hedge' against

China's hegemony in Asia. How Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, his new prime

minister, will react to this report in the fast moving post-war scenario will

be interesting to watch. It is probably why there were recently some

indications that Beijing was more inclined to start serious negotiations with

India on the border issue and with the Dalai Lama's administration for an

internal autonomy for Tibet. Moreover, the publication of the report

inadvertently coincided with the preparation of George Fernandes' visit to

Beijing. The first Indian leader to meet the new Chinese leadership is

certainly not an ordinary visitor. Five years ago, soon after he had taken over

as Indian defence minister, he had publicly taken a position close to the US

report's conclusions (at least about the threat to India). He had declared:

'India faces the biggest threat from China, not from Pakistan.' In the same

speech, he had criticised India's national security planners for ignoring

Beijing's plans for regional hegemony, despite having received warnings over

the last five decades. He had indicated that the situation had worsened with

China expanding military airfields in Tibet. He also mentioned that the Chinese

were building a base on the Coco Islands near theAndamans and helping Pakistan

with nuclear weaponry.

Today, the US report points out: 'India faces the reality that it lives in a

neighbourhood where China supplies nuclear and missile technology to Pakistan,

weapons to Bangladesh and is building a 12,000 ft runaway near Mandalay (Burma)

and a deep-water port in Gwadar in Pakistan.' Five years ago, when Fernandes

quoted Ram Manohar Lohia, the socialist leader for whom China's annexation of

Tibet was not only an attack on Tibet but also on India, he was not taken

seriously. When he objected to the 'reluctance' to face the reality about

China's intentions, a hue and cry was raised in India on the Indian minister's

'loose talk' and 'irresponsible statements.' During the following years,

Fernandes refrained from commenting on China's affairs. But today it appears

that his concerns are shared by the US, though perhaps for their own interests.

A recently published report of the RAND Corporation The Military Potential of

China's Commercial Technology, investigates the fast improvement of Chinese

military technology over the next 20 years. The report states: 'If China's

economy continues to grow as expected over the next 20 years, by 2020 it will

surpass that of the United States in terms of purchasing power. Such growth

would in theory provide China with the economic base to field a military

comparable to that of the United States. But in order to become a true military

superpower, China would needto make major improvements in the technological

capabilities of its defense industries.'It is not the Chinese economy which

bothers India too much (though the problems of the IT engineers in Malaysia

might be a fallout of the growing Chinese quest for hegemony in the area), but

more the happenings in Tibet.Until the Chinese invaded Tibet in October 1950,

Tibet was an independent nation. The few remnants of the Chinese mission had

politely been asked to leave accompanied by a local fanfare in July 1949. More

importantly for India and China, Tibet had for centuries been a buffer zone

between the two Asian giant nations. With the disappearance of this buffer zone

(the Dalai Lama today dreams of a zone of ahimsa), India and China began to face

each other and share a common border. In spite of several rounds of talks,

particularly in 1960, the so-called border row has not been solved and may not

be solved for decades to come. Though maps have been exchanged for more than 40

years, it has resulted in little progress on the ground. Today China still lays

claim to Arunchal Pradesh and Sikkim as well as the eastern part of Ladakh

called Aksai Chin. There crosses the most strategic road of the People's

Republic: the Tibet-Xinjiang highway linking the two provinces. While China

could be more amenable on the central and eastern sectors of the border,

Beijing will not concede anything on the AksaiChin, as too many defence as well

as development aspects depend on this axis.In fact, since Fernandes' famous

speech, this road link has taken a renewed importance due to the railway track

that will soon reach the Tibetan capital. With trains reaching Kashgar and

Lhasa, the highway will complete the loop linking China's Western provinces,

with all the consequences for Central Asia. It is certainly here that the

concerns of the US and Indiameet.

But for India, Tibet is the key to the stability in the region. On April 7,

during a press conference in Delhi, the Dalai Lama reiterated his demand for

'genuine' autonomy within China. He said he hoped the culture and spirituality

of Tibet and its traditions could be preserved: 'It is our only interest to seek

autonomy within the constitution of China.'After the first round of negotiations

last September during which 'the atmosphere was quite warm and quite positive,'

the Dalai Lama's presentatives are scheduled to go to Beijing in May for a

second round of talks. For the Dalai Lama: 'If the Tibetans get the right to

preserve their architecture and environment, then as far as economic

development is concerned we might get greater benefit by remaining within

China,' but the situation might not be that simple for the US as it is this

economic development and its collateral which worries Washington. Architecture

might not bother the US, but for the Tibetans who see the example of Beijing, it

is frightening to think that the son of Hitler's architect, Albert Speer has

been chosen by Jiang Zemin to transform the Chinese capital into a 'modern

city.'China expert Jasper Baker recently wrote that Speer has begun: 'a series

of mega-projects whose giganticism equals if not exceeds what Hitler was

prepared to do for old messy Berlin. The price tag for the new Beijing is said

to run to well over $100bn, making it the largest such infrastructure project

in the world.' As for the environment, it is worrying not only for the Dalai

Lama, but also for Indian experts who know that Tibet is the water tank of

Asia, with all the main rivers, such the Indus, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Salween,

Yangtze and others having their source on the Tibetan plateau. Any change in

theecological balance in Tibet has severe and immediate repercussions in all

parts of Asia, particularly in India.In this complicated situation, with

different conflicting centers of interest, the first visit to Beijing of an

Indian official after the recent change of guard will be worth watching. Once

the Iraq operations are over, Washington is bound to look East and tackle some

of the pending problems. In Beijing, this will not make life easier for Hu and

Wen, especially when every day new problems such as the spread of the SARS

virus are piling up on their tables. As for India, though China is more of a

security threat than an economic one, it does not automatically mean that it

should play the role of the 'hedge' envisaged by Washington. Delhi should

access on her own the security threats such as the consequences of a rail line

to Lhasa, the ecological dangers due to environmental damages caused by the

Chinese occupationof Tibet (mainly on the Sutlej and the Brahmaputra) or even

the Chinese presence in the Malacca Straits and take the necessary measures.

George Fernandes was quite right five years ago when he had concluded: 'All

discussions can be conducted even while you are prepared to face any

eventuality and what I'm pleading is that we should be prepared for any

eventuality.' It is certain that the solution proposed by the Dalai Lama to

have a demilitarised Tibet would be good not only for the Buddhists on theRoof

of the World, but also for India and ultimately China. Let us hope that in the

changed context, the new leaders in Beijing will dare to consider it.

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