COLD WAR TO COLD CASH

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"What could be the motive? To understand it, we need to recognise that with

the>ending of the Cold War, the area of conflict has shifted from geopolitics

to>economics, more particularly to arms trade.>>Cold War to cold cash>>Once we

recognise this basic reality, two facts stand out: India is awash in>hard

currency (dollars) and the Russians are desperately short of it. The>Russians

have only two things that they can export­oil and military hardware.>In today's

market they can sell oil anywhere. It is different with arms sale.>Russians seem

to be faring badly in the world arms market. It may soon

get>worse.">Demystifying Mitrokhin>N.S. Rajaram>Organiser>Oct. 2, 2005>>To

those familiar with the history of the KGB, the latest revelations in the>just

released book The Mitrokhin Archive II alleging payments to Congress and>CPI

politicians during the Indira Gandhi era will come as no surprise. This is>only

the latest in a series of revelations going back to 1991­the year in which>the

Soviet Union collapsed and the KGB archives became open. Actually, much>more

damaging information has been around, but the Indian media has failed

to>sufficiently highlight it.>>To a skeptical person, the 'revelations' smack

of a controlled leak meant to>protect more important interests. The amounts and

the people involved­a few>million roubles given to a few minor league

politicians like Lalit Narayan>Mishra­are of no great consequence or even

relevance today.>>All this pales into insignificance when we look at what was

already known. In>her book The State Within A State- The KGB and Its Hold on

Russia, Dr Yevgenia>Albats, a Russian scholar at Harvard revealed that Soviet

trading companies>were making payments to a firm controlled by Rajiv Gandhi as

far back as 1982.>>>(The memo on page 223 of the book cited by the author dates

to 1982 when Indira>Gandhi was still Prime Minister. So the 'Premier's son R.

Gandhi' in the KGB>memo can refer only to Rajiv Gandhi and not to his son Rahul

as has been>mistakenly identified.)>>Another indicator is Sonia Gandhi's

four-day visit to Moscow at Putin's>invitation beginning June 13. This happened

to coincide with the five-day Paris>Air Show that also began on the same

day.>>Who is this Dr. Albats by the way? She is a noted Russian scholar at

Harvard and>a member of the KGB Commission set up by President Boris Yeltsin in

August>1991. So she cannot be dismissed as a disgruntled non-entity as the

Congress>and CPI have tried to dismiss the now dead Mitorkhin.>>As if this were

not serious enough, the Swiss newsmagazine Schweizer>Illustrierte gave more

details. Again citing newly opened KGB archives, it>reported in November 1991

that Sonia Gandhi was controlling a secret account>worth 2.5 billion Swiss

francs (about two billion dollars) in her minor son's>name. This was a few

months after Rajiv Gandhi's assassination by LTTE>militants. The Dynasty is

sitting on this largesse.>>None of this is new. What Mitrokhin's Archive

reveals is little more than>payments of relatively small amounts to some

unimportant politicians. Some>experts are suggesting that the release of the

book is part of a strategy to>put pressure on more important and influential

leaders in the Indian political>establishment­a warning signal.>>What could be

the motive? To understand it, we need to recognise that with the>ending of the

Cold War, the area of conflict has shifted from geopolitics to>economics, more

particularly to arms trade.>>Cold War to cold cash>>Once we recognise this

basic reality, two facts stand out: India is awash in>hard currency (dollars)

and the Russians are desperately short of it. The>Russians have only two things

that they can export­oil and military hardware.>In today's market they can sell

oil anywhere. It is different with arms sale.>Russians seem to be faring badly

in the world arms market. It may soon get>worse.>>On June 18, 2005, Sergei

Malinin reported in Pravda (English edition) that under>American urging, India

might stop buying Russian military aircraft and air>defence systems altogether

and opt for American equipment. India has typically>gone for Russian and French

fighters, but now Americans have offered highly>favorable terms with F16 and F18

fighters including their manufacture in India.>>>Such a deal is being offered

for the first time to a country that is neither a>NATO member nor has any

American troops deployed on its soil. The fear is that>it might only be the

beginning. The US deal, as seen from Russia, is only the>first step in

gradually forcing out Russian, Ukrainian, and Chinese arms>suppliers out of the

region by offering India its state-of-the-art weapons at a>reasonable price, as

well as their manufacture.>>Russia can ill-afford losing the Indian market, for

its export is limited to the>Asia-Pacific region. As Pravda also noted:

"Russia's defence industry heavily>depends on export deals. …should Russia

leave the traditional markets of the>Asian Pacific region (high profitability

and capacity being the main features>of the region's markets), the scale of the

Russian defence industry will shrink>significantly. Besides, the move would

signify a final devaluation of Russia's>foreign influence in the region.">>If

Russia loses its largest customer, several of its defence industries will>face

bankruptcy leading to massive unemployment. In the circumstances, it is>only to

be expected that the Russians will do everything possible to ensure>they get a

large share of the lucrative Indian market. While their products may>not be the

best in the world, their intelligence network in India, going back>to the KGB

days is unequalled, including its lavish generosity towards the>Dynasty going

back to Indira Gandhi.>>India has typically gone with Russian and French

fighters, but now Americans>have offered highly favorable terms with F16 and

F18 fighters including their>manufacture in India.>>In the circumstances, it

will not be surprising if they try to use their hard>earned influence to swing

defence deals in their favour. There are a few>indicators. When the UPA

government controlled by Sonia Gandhi assumed office,>Vladimir Putin, a former

KGB official himself, appointed Vyacheslav Trubnikov>as the Russian Ambassador

in Delhi. It turns out that Trubnikov is a KGB>veteran, with extensive Indian

experience in Kolkatta and Delhi.>>Another indicator is Sonia Gandhi's four-day

visit to Moscow at Putin's>invitation beginning June 13. This happened to

coincide with the five-day Paris>Air Show that also began on the same day. Was

this a coincidence? It was>reported that India was the most sought after

customer at the Air Show, courted>by the Americans, the French, the Swedes and

the Russians.>>Here is a poser: Why did Sonia Gandhi cancel her trip to the US,

which she had>accepted at the invitation of former president Bill Clinton for a

conference of>international leaders? Even the Indian Embassy in Washington had

put in a>request to the White House for a personal meeting with President

Bush.>Canceling a Washington trip so soon after a high profile visit to Russia

was at>least a major diplomatic gaffe.>>We have not seen the last of the KGB

revelations. There are far too many loose>ends. But India should be wary of

arms dealers trying to dump inferior>equipment using political influence.

National security should have the highest>priority.>>(The writer is a historian

and can be contacted at email:>

>navarat (AT) bgl (DOT) vsnl.net.in>)>>>>------------------------------->This

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