NEPAL: A HOSTILE TAKEOVER IN ACTION

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25. 11. 2005

 

NEPAL: The Political Parties reach the "point of no return"- Update

78

 

by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan

 

Since the sacking of Deuba in October 2002, we have always looked at

the developments in Nepal in the frame work of a triangular

equilibrium, with the King, the Maoists and the Political parties at

the three ends. Of the three forces, the weakest was the seven party

alliance. The political parties by their sheer greed, bad governance

and internal rivalry made a mockery of democracy and since the

middle of 1998, their cadres have not even ventured out of the

Kathmandu valley and other major towns for fear of the Maoists who

are now all over the rural areas. This is not to justify the action

of the King who now rules outside the 1990 Constitution.

 

It has been our view that the best that should have happened was the

King and the political parties to reconcile their positions and make

a joint effort to combat the greater menace of the Maoists. Instead

we find that the Maoists and the agitating political parties have

come to an agreement to bring in absolute democracy (whatever it

means) by "focussing their attack against the autocratic monarchy."

This is sad but what surprises us is that this has the blessings of

India with support from JNU bred analysts, notwithstanding denials

from official sources.

 

Now the 12 Point Agreement announced simultaneously by the Seven

party Alliance and the Maoists on 22nd November:

 

A rough translation of the twelve point agreement is given in

Appendix II. Briefly the agreement highlights the following.

 

1. Peace and Prosperity of the country is impossible without ending

autocracy and establishing absolute monarchy. All anti regressive

forces have decided to focus their attack against the autocratic

monarchy independently.

 

2. The seven party alliance would go for a road map by reinstatement

of parliament first, followed by formation of an all party

government with full executive power, talks with the Maoists and

election to the constituent assembly in that order. The Maoists on

the other hand, would prefer a road map with the formation of an

interim government formed after a national conference of agitating

parties which then will oversee an election to the constituent

assembly.

 

3. While both parties are committed to a constituent assembly, the

Maoists are committed to move into a "new" peaceful political line.

Once the autocratic monarchy is ended ( not the monarchy as such!),

the arms of both the RNA and the Maoists will be supervised by the

UN or a dependable international body to ensure free and fair

election to the constituent assembly. Both parties expect

involvement of a credible international community in the dialogue

process.

 

4. CPN-M ( Maoists) is committed to competitive multi party system,

fundamental rights of the people, human rights, rule of law,

democratic principles and values and to act accordingly.

 

5. Maoists will create a conducive atmosphere to all leaders and

cadres of democratic forces and people to return to their homes and

would return the physical properties and houses seized

unjustifiably. People will be allowed to take part in political

activities without hindrance.

 

6. The Maoists have agreed to criticise itself for the past mistakes

with promise not to repeat them.

 

7. The Political Parties of the alliance will also not repeat the

mistakes after they have had an introspection.

 

8. Human rights principles and freedom of press will be fully

respected during the peace process.

 

9. The Municipal and Parliamentary Polls will be boycotted and made

unsuccessful.

 

10. Both sides have expressed their commitment to protect their

independence, national unity, and sovereignty and safeguarding

geographical integrity. They have also declared their responsibility

to maintain cordial relationship with all nations of the world,

especially the neighbours India and China.

 

11. Both sides called on all to actively support the people's

movement launched under the common agreement based on democracy,

peace, prosperity, social transformation, and the nation's

sovereignty.

 

12. Past incidents will be probed and action will be taken against

guilty.

 

Comments:

 

* Though both sides have the same objective of going in for

elections to constituent assembly, they have not given up their

respective road maps- The political parties want to undo the first

knot by reinstating the sacked parliament while the Maoists are

sticking to their stand of a national conference of democratic

forces, interim government and then election to the constituent

assembly. The most significant development is that the Nepali

Congress has finally and clearly opted for elections to a

constituent assembly.

 

* While the ongoing agitation will be intensified, the Maoists and

the seven party alliance will work independently to work for an end

to autocratic monarchy. It means that there is no alliance and no

joint action. It is not clear from the wording whether the political

parties agree with the Maoists that the fight is against autocratic

monarchy or monarchy itself.

 

* Nepalese political parties as also the media from both India and

Nepal were quick to come to the conclusion that the Maoists have

shown their willingness to join the political mainstream by laying

down their arms to a UN body or to any other neutral institution.

The twelve point agreement does not give this impression. All it

says is that the arms of both the Royal Nepal Army and that of the

Maoists will be "supervised" by the UN or a dependable international

body.

 

* There is a challenge thrown to the King and his government that

the municipal elections and later the parliamentary elections will

not be allowed. It is our assessment that the municipal elections

could be conducted though not the parliamentary one, if done in

phases.

 

* For the first time in the history of Nepal, outside powers other

than India is being involved in what is still an internal problem.

For quite some time the UN has been interested in getting involved

and now the 12 point agreement opens the doors not only for the UN

but also other "dependable" international bodies.

 

* Many analysts in Nepal see the announcement as the "end game" of

the unfortunate conflict that has been raging since 1996. To us it

looks that it is just the beginning. They have identified the common

target- here the King and common objective of elections to a

constituent assembly. They are not willing to go for joint action or

a working alliance. The Maoists will not lay down their arms and the

full blow of counter action by the security forces would perhaps

come on the poor hapless cadres of the seven party alliance.

 

* The most serious flaw in this agreement is that it completely

ignores the monarchy and its influence on the people and the

security forces. Despite regular and systematic brainwashing of

students, teachers and the people by the Maoists in the country

side, monarchy is still a factor to reckon with in the rural areas

and even the middle class and the elite in the townships. While

Maoists have been dominating the country side, they are not in a

position to over run the valley and thus there is no military

solution either way. If the idea is to pressurise the King to give

in by this declaration, knowing his nature, these would only harden

his stand further. There will only be more bloodshed and more

instability.

 

* But the King is equally responsible for throwing the agitating

parties into the arms of the Maoists. The midnight raids, house

arrests, humiliating former ministers including the Prime minister,

media ordinance and now the code of conduct for the NGOs have all

irretrievably ruled out any political accommodation with the

democratic forces. By removing the buffer and taking all powers to

himself, he has exposed monarchy to all violations of law. It was

strange and rather amusing to hear the Attorney General arguing in

the case against the Royal Commission on corruption control

that "All orders issued by the King are constitutional since he is a

devotee of the Hindu religion and the Constitution has given him

special responsibility." In the same case at another point the

Attorney general said that the executive authority rests with the

King as there is no Parliament and therefore the advice and consent

of Cabinet ministers mandatory under Article 35(2) are no longer

relevant!

 

The Indian Shadow:

 

In the SAARC summit, the Indian Prime Minister met the King of Nepal

and media reports indicate that the PM underlined to the King the

importance of restoring multi party democracy in Nepal and the need

to take concrete steps in this regard. The King is said to have

reaffirmed his commitment to multiparty democracy and said that he

was prepared to work with the political parties towards this

objective. It is not clear whether the Prime Minister mentioned

about India's continuing interest in the Constitutional monarchy.

 

In response to the twelve point agreement between the Maoists and

the seven party alliance, the official spokesman on 23rd November

said that India has urged the institution of monarchy to work

together with the political parties.

 

If this was the Indian Government's position, what had happened in

Delhi and later in Kathmandu with the issuance of the 12 point

agreement between the Maoists and the democratic parties to fight

the "autocratic monarchy", there would hardly be any space for the

King to work with the political parties.

 

The Government of India cannot deny as to what was going on. Witness

the following-

 

* Madhav Nepal, of CPN (UML) came to Delhi for a "medical check"

upon 23 rd October and was meeting Indian leaders of all hues from

Prime Minister downwards till the 11th November.

 

* G.P. Koirala reached Delhi for a medical check up again( he had

one a little earlier) on 10th November and Madhav Nepal met him

before he left for Kathmandu on 11th November.

 

* Madhav Nepal visited Delhi again twice before the twelve point

agreement was released to the Press on 23rd November, 2005.

 

* While Madhav Nepal was in Delhi, Bam Dev Gautam of his party told

the Press that his leader will meeting the Maoists at an undisclosed

place. ( referred to in our earlier update)

 

* On 18th November, Madhav Nepal confirmed to the BBC that the

dialogue with the Maoists had opened and also admitted that the

representatives of seven party Alliance et Maoists leaders to a

joint protest against the King.

 

* On 19th November, G.P.Koirala admitted that he had telephonic

talks with Maoists leaders.

 

* There was a specific report in the Indian media that senior

politicians of Nepal's seven party alliance met top Maoists leaders

in Delhi on 17th and 18th of November.

 

* The agreement between the two sides was released to the Press on

22nd November, after the two leaders, G.P.Koirala and Madhav Nepal

return to Kathmandu.

 

Whether there was a personal meeting between the seven party

alliance leaders and the Maoists is beside the point. But what is

significant is that the discussions on the agreement have perhaps

taken place with New Delhi's knowledge, acquiescence and blessings.

 

What could have moved India to a change of course from getting the

King and the political parties together and instead getting the

Maoists and the democratic parties together? Perhaps the King's

uncompromising actions against the political parties and worse,

using the China card to pressurise India (SAARC summit etc) could

have resulted in this change.

 

If one is to describe the situation in Nepal in one sentence, it is

that "it is in a mess."

 

Maoist related Incidents:

 

The informal cease fire is still holding barring minor incidents.

Though the three-month cease fire declared by the Maoists would end

on December 2, there are indications that it would be extended by

another month. Though the government has not officially reciprocated

the cease fire, it has acknowledged its existence in an

international forum. (In the sixth conference of the Ministers of

Information of Non Aligned Countries on 21 November ). A list of

incidents since October 10th is given in Appendix I. Appendix II

gives a rough translation of the full text of the 12 point agreement

between the agitating seven party alliance and CPN. (M)- the Maoists.

 

Appendix I.

 

Incidents

 

Date Incidents

 

October 2005

 

15. Four Maoists were killed in a security operation at

Beltari in Morang District.

 

18. At least 400 family members of security personnel of

Kathmandu demanded that either the government declare a cease fire

or discharge their kin from the services.

 

30. The son of former Prime Minister Lokendra Bahadur

Chand was kidnapped from Bashuling Sugar mill in Kailali. He was

later released on being assured that he would pay up the dues to his

workers.

 

31. Two Oil tankers heading for Dipayal from Kailali's

Sahajpur area were seized by the Maoists.

 

November 2005.

 

06. Nine Maoists were arrested from Jhapa area by the

local Police when they were collecting donations.

 

15. The All Nepal National Independent Students's Union ®

affiliated to the Maoists shut down the government run schools in

Dharan in protest against the government decision to hand over the

schools to the communities.

 

55 High School students from in and around Pokhara were abducted by

the Maoists for indoctrination. They were returned later.

 

19. 56 teachers and students abducted from the western

region were released after a week.

 

20. Two security personnel were killed at Kavre Phulchowk

by Maoists in an ambush.

 

21 Security forces and Maoists clashed at Sapsukhola in

Khotang. Four of the Maoists were killed and twenty more were

injured.

 

22 Over a thousand strong crowd demonstrated at Dipayal

demanding the extension of cease fire.

 

Appendix II

 

12 Point Agreement

 

1. At present all Nepalese desire peace, democracy, prosperity,

social progress and independent and sovereign Nepal. To achieve this

goal, we fully agree that the autocratic monarchy is the main

obstacle. We are in clear agreement that peace and prosperity of the

country is quite impossible without ending autocracy and

establishing absolute democracy. Hence, all anti-regressive forces

have come to an agreement to

 

focus their attack against the autocratic monarchy independently,

and bring it to an end by intensifying the ongoing democratic

movement across the country.

 

2. The seven-party alliance is fully convinced that sovereignty and

executive right of the people can be reestablished through the

reinstatement of parliament (on the basis of people's movement);

formation of all-party government with full executive power; talks

with the Maoists and election to the constituent assembly. Whereas

CPN-M believes that people's sovereignty can be established through

formation of an interim government formed after a national

conference of agitating democratic forces, which will oversee the

election to the constituent assembly [This is the only point of

divergence, so to speak, between the seven-party alliance and the

rebels]. Both of us agree to continue negotiation and dialogue to

reach common agreement in these procedural issues. However, we have

agreed that people's movement is the only way to attain our agreed

goals.

 

3. The nation has demanded constructive end of the present armed

conflict and establishment of a lasting peace. Thus, we are fully

committed to end autocratic monarchy and establish lasting peace

through election to constituent assembly. In this regard, the CPN-M

expresses its commitment to move into new peaceful political line.

After bringing the autocratic monarchy to an end, we have agreed

that the arms of both the Royal Nepalese Army and the Maoists will

be supervised by the United Nations or a dependable international

body to ensure free and fair election to the constituent assembly.

Both parties have also agreed to accept the results of the

elections. We also expect an involvement of a credible international

community in the dialogue process.

 

4. CPN-M has expressed firm commitment to acceptance of competitive

multiparty system, fundamental rights of the people, human rights,

and rule of law and democratic principles and values and to act

accordingly.

 

5. CPN-M has agreed to create conducive atmosphere to allow all

leaders and cadres affiliated to other democratic forces and common

people, who were displaced from home during the conflict, to return

to their respective places with full respect. The Maoists have also

agreed to return the houses and physical properties of people and

party cadres seized unjustifiably. People will be allowed to take

part in political activities without any hindrance.

 

6. CPN-M has also agreed to criticize itself for its past mistakes

and has expressed commitment not to repeat them in future.

 

7. Parties will introspect on their past mistakes and they have

expressed commitment not to repeat such mistakes in future.

 

8. During the peace process human rights principles and freedom of

press will be fully respected.

 

9. The municipal and parliamentary polls which have been pushed

forward with the malicious intention of deceiving people and the

international community, and to legitimize the king's autocratic and

unconstitutional rule will be boycotted and made unsuccessful.

 

10. People, representatives of people and political parties are the

real bulwark of nationalism. We are committed to protecting our

independence, national unity and sovereignty, and safeguarding

geographical integrity. It is our responsibility to maintain cordial

relationship with all nations in the world--especially with our

neighbors, India and China--based on the principle of peaceful co-

existence. We appeal to all patriotic Nepalis to be wary of the

Mandale brand of nationalism preached by the monarch and his

sycophants to protect their rule and interest. We also appeal to the

Nepali people and international community to provide help to our

Loktantrik movement.

 

11. We also appeal to all people, civil society members,

professional communities, various sister organizations, journalists

and intellectuals to participate actively in the people's peaceful

movement launched under the common agreement based on democracy,

peace, prosperity, social transformation, and the nation's

sovereignty.

 

12. The parties and Maoists have also agreed to probe into past

incidents and take action against the guilty. In future, if any

problem occurs among political parties, the concerned high level

leaders shall discuss and settle the issues amicably through

dialogue.

 

http://www.saag.org/notes3/note281.html