Guest guest Posted February 9, 2004 Report Share Posted February 9, 2004 2004 MARKET FORECASTSFINANCIAL ASTROLOGY: It is NOT WHAT you know, but WHEN you know it. © Henry Weingarten Last Updated: Sat, 03 Jan 2004 17:47:20 GMT Much of the following material has been serialized in WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK and our r premium channels. This will next be updated in May after our 11th Astrology and Stock Market Seminar May 14-17, 2004 in New York City. Notes: Hyper links that are prefaced with a S: are restricted toWSNW Subscribers. This forecast was posted on our web site in October in our premium channels for WSNW rs.WILL US POLICY PREVENT A JAPANESE OUTCOME OR JUST DELAY IT?HOW LONG WILL ENERGY PRICES STAY HIGH?WILL THE US DOLLAR FIGHT BACK OR TAKE A DIVE? Many advisors suggest investors fight the urge to be bearish and enjoy the run-up in the stock market. I wonder what these same advisors were advising in March and April 2000? While the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003 is mixed, the external risk potential is horrific! We consider the long term economic fall out of the US Iraq invasion quite severe and believe that global markets can retest or break their 2003 lows. Stock selection is paramount and will count more than sector rotation and even stock market timing!Given that the traditional "Buy and Hold" investing strategy will continue to under perform, we again recommend trading 50% in "investing" portfolios in 2004. TAKE/PROTECT PROFITS CONTINUOUSLY.For 3 years we warned: LEARN THE MARKET LESSONS OF 2000, BECAUSE THEY WILL REPEAT IN 2003. Now that the forecast is true, come June 2004, many investors may be berating themselves with why didn't they sell when the Nasdaq was circa 2000? Why didn't they learn their lesson in March 2000? BOTTOM LINE: DON'T BUY AND HOLD. THE STOCK MARKET IS LIVING ON BORROWED TIME. I ADVISE KEEPING A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO, ELIMINATE MARGIN DEBT AND BE CASH RICH. MARKET NEUTRAL INVESTING FOR EXPERIENCED INVESTORSIn order to sleep soundly at night, I recommend a Hedge Fund style Market Neutral Strategy in 2004. This involves both buying under valued and selling short overvalued stocks. This is best done in industry pairs as it involves the smallest risk, although the most work. Alternately, stocks can be hedged against their individual sector membership or the overall market: Buying a stock and selling its sector or broad market index, or Selling a stock and buying its sector index or the overall market. If you are bullish, I would recommend a long/short ratio of 2-1.If you incline more to the bearish camp as I do, then a long/short ratio of 1-2 is preferable. There are five primary celestial and terrestrial phenomena affecting world events and global markets in 2004: October 13, 2004 Solar Eclipse; 2 Total Lunar Eclipses May 4 & October 28, 2004,Saturn in Cancer and Uranus in Pisces, The World War on Terror,10 countries joining the EU May 2004,The 2004 US Presidential Election.Three Big Investing Ideas 1. US DOLLAR REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE IN 2004Everyone knows now that the US dollar has already peaked. Smart money players Warren Buffett and George Soros are making huge bets the dollar will continue its slide to new lows all next year. Many currency analysts predict a further 10% drop in the dollar's value versus major currencies. US Treasury Secretary John Snow shocked currency traders by stating that the U.S. government no longer measures the dollar's strength by its market value against the other major currencies. Instead, Snow said "strong" refers to such aspects of the dollar as the confidence it inspires in the public and its resistance to counterfeiting. This plus the G7 call for more "flexible exchange rates, has most benefited the Euro and Yen. as well as secondary currencies such as the Canadian and Australian Dollars and gold. All investors need to diversify their investments globally. The average American has less than 5% of his assets in foreign holdings. The decline in the US Dollar's value has made foreign investments more attractive. Stock prices are cheaper by most valuation measures: price to earnings, price to sales and price to book. Due to the November 8th 2003 Lunar Eclipse 2003, global interest rates reversed course, first rising in Australia and then in the UK. In 2004, we also expect US interest rates to rise due to a lower US dollar and future inflationary worries. Our US dollar Index Fair Value has dropped to 88.80 with ..85 to .82 increasingly possible in 2004. One lurking possibility is that it may become necessary for the FED to defend the US dollar or that outright intervention from the US Treasury in the currency markets may be necessary. However, Winter and Spring 2004, we could also see the US dollar as high as ..94-.95. If so, this would be a MAJOR sell signal for us.Our recommended US equity portfolios international stock allocation has been raised to 50%. 2. A WAR TIME ECONOMY: GUNS AND CAVIAR REDUX Bush's Progressed Mars (War) was increasingly prominent in 2003 = an expansion on the war on terror. Saturn is also transiting the US Sun. As Saturn represents "reality", paying the piper is not likely to be overly favorable for US markets, given the US budget deficit from a weakened economy, the War on Terrorism and Tax Cuts. The violence level on the War on Terrorism, unfortunately, is likely to increase in 2004 given prominent Mars aspects in both Bush's and the USA horoscopes. It is possible this could be US global trade war(s), instead of a new/expanded hot shooting war on terror then. Homeland (Cancer) security (Saturn), defense (Mars) and insurance will garner even more public attention. As this will take money away from more productive areas of the economy, we are far from bullish.Fears of deflation and interest rate cuts left US and UK government bond yields at multi-decade lows. Both suffer however, from a sharp increase in supply, the former more so due to massive tax cuts underway as well as military adventures and increased defense spending. When things do turn, we could see a very nasty bear market in bonds. Bond markets believe the Fed will act as soon as March, but no later than May, to raise interest rates. At some point, TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protection Securities) will be the major buy in the US bond market. 3. THE END OF THE HOUSING BUBBLEHousing, along with Commodities and physicals, is now viewed as an Asset Class along with Stocks, Bonds and Cash by many investors. Positively, there is the enjoyment factor: most woman would prefer to have an additional 100K in a home than in a portfolio. Housing also appeals to safety concerns in times of trouble, but home buying is cooling. Record low interest rates are ending. Other negatives include the fact that the ratio of home prices to home rental rates is too high, while the value of individually owned residential property to disposable income is at a 50 year high. Classically, Real Estate weakens 12-24 months after a market collapse. Thanks to the Fed, this did not happen when individual stock prices returned to pre-1998 pricing. I still see the probability of a housing drop of 10-35% [depending on location and individual property] over the next 6-18 months. In June 2003, Saturn entered Cancer. Let's not forget what Saturn in Gemini (Communications) did to Telecoms. Hopefully it will NOT be that bad: Favorable tax treatment, low interest rates, along with continuing demand could make this a slowing market with a soft instead of hard landing before July 2005 when Saturn leaves Cancer [home] for Leo. Either way, buyers will benefit more than sellers. Global Stock markets in 2004 will be determined largely by answering three questions:Q1: How will Bush's military adventures affect Oil prices and help or hinder the War on Terror?Q2: Who will be helped/hurt the most by the lower US dollar?Q3: What P/e's will investors be willing to pay for modest corporate growth? HOW HIGH IS UP? HOW LOW IS LOW? AFUND TRADING RANGES DJIA: 7816 to 10848** SPX: 860 to 1120NASDAQ: 1140-2080 VALUE WITH GROWTH Capital Preservation is again most important for global investors; hence, we stress caution. Previously, we recommended an investment strategy paradigm of BUY and HOLD Growth stocks with at least reasonable valuations based on current and future profits. International money flows no longer exclusively favor the US, with Asia, Europe and even emerging markets garnering more global interest. In 2004, both Value and Growth will periodically outperform and under perform. Market timing will be the key. Classic "Buy and Hold" is passé: Stock picking, more than sector membership, and Market timing will rule in 2004. Successful investing will depend on knowing: When all the good news has already been factored into the share price, at what price is the valuation just too high? When all the bad news has already been factored into the share price, at what price is the valuation too cheap? Any and all investing profits need to be protected against future bear assaults in 2004. Trade more (50% of portfolio) and take/protect profits at 10%-20% profit points for long term non-core holdings. LEARN THE LESSONS OF 2000, THEY REPEATED IN 2003 WITH EXCESSIVE SPECULATION:1) Buy carefully and when stock valuation becomes super frothy again, SELL.2) Be careful about owning stocks that are “priced to perfection”, they can only disappoint.3) It is NEVER “different this time.”4) Ultimately, profits matter. INVESTORS SHOULD ONLY BUY AND HOLD STOCKS IN 2004 THAT ARE: 1) Profitable, well managed companies, 2) P/E* under 17 for Growth and under 14 for Value or. 3) A PEG <1.4, or undervalued by 10% or more, or dividend yields of 4% or more. *After allowing for pension liabilities and expensing options.** Our October forecast was exceeded in December 2003 due to Saddam capture, making a possible up DOW target as high as 10848. Similarly, our SPX early projection of 1090 was met. Accordingly these numbers have been revised upward. I GLOBAL INVESTING BUY JAPANACCUMULATE EUROPE: UK & HOLLANDTRADE THE UNITED STATES HOLD SAFETY: BERMUDA, LUXEMBOURG, SWITZERLAND The Horoscope is a MAP of TIME and PLACE - here is a brief overview of selected global markets:Country risk is re-emerging as a corollary to anti-globalization forces. Sophisticated investors today are rightly concerned about being overly invested in any one country or currency. EUROPE - A stronger global alternative to the USEuropean stocks have a 25% discount to valuations compared to stocks in the United States and domestic demand is growing. Some exporting companies' sales are being hurt by the dollar's drop against the Euro. A further surge in the euro above 124 against the dollar would hit some euro zone based export firms hard. Despite this, on a global basis, Europe is still undervalued and more reasonably valued. GERMANY- No view. HOLLAND - Market Out Perform Q2/Q3 2004.ENGLAND - In 2004, the City will Out Perform Wall Street.FRANCE - No view. LUXEMBOURG- Hold Safety:SWITZERLAND: The worst is over. EU EXPANSION countries, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Cyprus, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia remain on Watch as they are likely to compete inside the EU's single market from 2004 on. However, there is little for foreign investors to buy outside of the banks. In the non-financial area, many of the best companies are likely to be bought out, rather than going public. Finally, shares prices there already reflect European entry which means the "easy" money has already been made long ago. Note: WSNW rs can review our favorite S: Dow Jones Stoxx 50 stocks. NORTH AMERICA - Traders paradise S: CANADA - We correctly forecast Canada would no longer lead the G7 economies last year and downgraded it to market perform. The Loonie is no longer undervalued and this is affecting some of its export driven economy. In 2003, its economy was pummeled by SARS, the Iraqi war, the mad-cow scare, the Aug. 14 blackout, a stronger Loonie and weaker US economy beginning of the year. A strong loonie into 2004 will result in more layoffs in export-oriented industries such as forestry and manufacturing. Fortunately for Canada lovers such as yours truly, 2005 will be stellar for Canada beginning almost immediately after the US presidential elections. Does this mean Howard Dean, a great friend of Canada, will be elected? It is a distinct possibility! In 2005, the loonie will be .80. S: MEXICO - Last year, we recommended only stocks likely to be a takeover targets like Banacci was by Citibank, AHISA by MetLife or Bital by HSBC or those with domestic strength such as COCA-COLA FEMSA (KOF). In 2004, I would only look to potential take over targets sporting reasonable valuations or companies that can compete in the US for the rising Hispanic consumer market share. UNITED STATES - Still overvalued versus global counterparts. Our current Dow Fair Value is only 8200. Many former investor favorites will disappoint as investors sell rallies to "get even". US Bonds are by and large unattractive except for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or a similar alternative I Bonds. The US Dollar remains a potential time bomb: It is no longer as safe a haven given budget deficits and the War on Terror. Positively, thanks to the weaker US dollar, intermediate term, select US exporters will out perform. Additionally, more American firms will become take over targets e.g. Henkel buying Dial or AXA takeout offer for MNY. Given one can trade stocks here for 10-25% appreciation/depreciation a day/week, this remains TRADERS HEAVEN. ASIA/PACIFIC - Intermediate term investment opportunities in Japan.Long term, China and Asia could be the fastest growing area in the world 2010-2030. It is only a matter of time before Asia is no longer so dependent upon American consumer markets to thrive. S: JAPAN -Until recently, Japan's economy was hindered by lifeless personal consumption due to severe employment and wage conditions. As forecast for 2003, there has been a recovery in the Japanese economy. The Nikkei as a long term buy on weakness to 12,000+ using a 2004-5 time horizon. Note: The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future. When the Yen is strong [< 107 - Fair value ~110], we intend to join its government in selling it. Whatever the Yen's value, we believe domestic industries are no longer to be shunned. JAPAN INC. [EWJ] is one of our two favorite 2004 country buys. Our mantra on JAPAN INC. is "You have Japanese products in your home; why don't you have Japanese stocks in your portfolio?"HONG KONG/CHINA - Capital continues to pour into China to take advantage of low productions costs. In terms of potential, there is no country like China with its 1.3 billion people and above 7% annual rate of economic growth. This has been the well spun story that everyone and his grandmother has been buying. That and the 2008 Olympics not withstanding, too many of the mainland's industries are a mess and its stock market is overloaded with poor quality state owned companies. Until this is rightly addressed and Chinese leaders make dramatic moves to reform the country's financial system, we continue to recommend great caution. At the minimum, I would expect the merger of A and B share markets and most important, the move to float the Chinese currency. On the plus side, sooner, rather than later, the Yuan is going UP, whether a free float or just a one time appreciation. China is booming, with growing exports and domestic demand. It will be the third largest economy in the world before 2020, after the US and Euroland. Yet its public debt is over 100% GDP if you include "off-balance sheet" accounting. Non-performing loans held by China's banks are 25%-to-50% of GDP making China highly vulnerable to an economic downturn. I prefer to wait and buy AFTER the collapse or take over of a big four bank, given my predilection for sound sleep.Hong Kong is not attractive, especially as fundamentals often seem to matter little on the Hang Seng, and its stock market acts as close to legalized gambling more than any other major one in the world. On the bright side, Hong Kong benefits from a spill-over effect from Chinese mainland's trade. The coming positive for Hong Kong is China’s qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) scheme. When approved, this will allow mainland Chinese residents to invest in the territory adding considering liquidity.Despite a far better economy, we also remain reluctant to invest in Taiwanese markets unless compensated for potential "war like" conditions in the future.KOREA - We continue to like blue chip giants Korea Telecomm (KT), LG Electronics and Samsung Electronics (SSNGF). We expect a MAJOR peace dividend in 2004/2005. Like Taiwan, this is a largely a bet on the US technology sector.INDIA - The story is now much bigger than just computer and pharmaceutical blue chips. Global investors have finally noticed the giant sucking sound of thousands of US and UK jobs being outsourced to India. The Indian government reports a return of 19.33% on foreign direct investment in India, which is higher than the 14.25% for China. Goldman Sachs predicts that India will be the third largest economy by 2035. IIF or IFN are two closed end India funds, and the best way for US investors to invest (not trade) in India in 2004.AUSTRALASIA - We remain mildly bullish for 2004 given our forecast for a strong Aussie $ and maintain our "out perform" rating country rating. Billionaire investor George Soros is backing the New Zealand dollar - It can strengthen further against the stubbornly flaccid US greenback. Then again, so is almost every other global currency not pegged to the US dollar. However if you wish to retire, NEW ZELAND has it all: natural beauty, friendly people and great food. OTHER TIGERS AND DRAGONS - Between SARS in 2003 and future terrorism threats, we would avoid for the time being any sizable investments in Thailand, Malaysia, and especially Indonesia and the Philippines. OTHER- Opportunities for savvy investors ONLY . BERMUDA - Bank of Bermuda (BBDA), LOM (Holdings) [LOM:BH] and RenaissanceRe Holdings (RNR) S: ISRAEL - Israel's technology sector is desirable given its highly skilled labor force and favorable tax treatment. Unfortunately, it is best to buy only when there is blood in the streets, which happens all too often. Happily, we see the possibility that this market could enjoy more than one tradable peace dividend rally ahead.RUSSIA - Many high risk investors primarily bet on the oil sector here. Later, when foreign investors were motivated to buy further a field due to positive economic performance and more rule of law, we correctly advised caution ahead of the March 2004 presidential election, c.f. Russia Central Bank Deputy Fears Capital Flight after the arrest of the boss of oil giant YUKOS. S: LATIN AMERICA - Accumulate on weakness only for appropriate multi-year long term investment portfolios and longer term for multi-national corporate investments. We continue to advise caution for emerging markets unless you monitor them very closely. They "behave like rich-country ones on speed, both up and down". It is very important for investors to distinguish between high and low risk countries. Current AFUND ratings on the BIG Four Emerging Markets are: Brazil (Watch), China (Wait), India (Hold) and Russia (Avoid). Later in 2004, the global investing landscape may be dramatically different. WSNW rs should periodically review our S: AFUND GLOBAL 12 - for our favorite global blue chip long term investments. II TIMING Traders believe "Making money in the market is all about Timing". The "Buy And Hold" climate we used to have in the US stock market is long PAST HISTORY. Since 2000, it has become a "Market Timing" and “Stock Picking” environment. Markets reward best stocks that have Value AND Growth. Corporate profits for more well managed and sufficiently capitalized companies should rise modestly, helped by the low interest rates. Despite the fact that we do live in interesting times, short term we repeat last year's mantra:VALUE plus GROWTH is BEST and Trade for short term profit 10-20% moves. PRE-NOVEMBER 2004 Public enthusiasm to spend, spend, spend will be subdued as the US job market continues to go through structural changes and more better paying jobs are exported to China and India. Consumers are still in a financially weak position with little pent-up demand. 2004 will bring a rise in interest rates that is likely to dampen consumer willingness to spend and borrow. If/when the US housing markets corrects, the question will be whether the US enters a recession or worse. The bottom line: Our advice to individuals and businesses is to increase cash flow (profits/income - expenses) 10% next year. The current Zeitgeist of Minimal buying enthusiasm, then slight profit taking will later see the usual January effect Nasdaq buying, the usual April tax rally and reversal, a very tough summer and then a "surprising" strong September UP election buying. Stock markets will benefit less from low interest rates. Saturn transiting the Sun of President Bush and the USA Independence Horoscope cosmically demands "paying the piper". Uranus reenters Pisces in late December which refavors the biotech industry innovation over the next couple of years. Jupiter leave Virgo and enters Libra September 24, 2004. This plus medical electioneering will change profitability models for many companies in the health care industry. Q4 2004, we expect M&A activity to accelerate in the Financial sector. We will talk more about which sectors such as the fashion industry will benefit H2 2004 from Jupiter's move into Libra in our May 2004 update. The next key astrological event for the US is Pluto opposite the US Mars in January, May and November. This is likely to intensify (Pluto) conflicts (Mars opposition) and we unfortunately will remain a nation at war. The 3 biggest outer planet aspects: Jupiter Square Pluto (8/6), Jupiter 135 Neptune (9/15) and Jupiter trine Neptune (11/29) are quite brief in duration and intensity and may have little market influence outside of the energy and financial sectors. Of considerable consequence may be the pre-US election Solar Eclipse of October 13, 2004. More on this in our May 2004 update. LONGER TERM 2005: The fifth year of each decade has been positive since 1881. We see no reason at this moment to disagree with history. March 29, 2006 is a Total Solar Eclipse. Also in 2006 Jupiter squares Neptune 1/28, 3/16 and 9/24. 2007: Jupiter Square Uranus: 1/22, 5/11, 10/9 and then in December 2007: Jupiter will be conjunct Pluto. The low point of the nodal cycle is reached in 2008 and Pluto ingresses into Capricorn.. Jupiter conjunct Neptune in 2009: 5/27, 7/10, 12/21. The next epic shifting planetary configurations in 2010/2011 of Jupiter conjunct Uranus AND Jupiter opposition Saturn as well as Uranus entering Aires and Neptune enters Pisces. ALL precede the December 21, 2012 Mayan end date. III SECTORS Sector based investing, while no longer replacing country based approaches to global investing, still is very important.Favorite 2004/2005 future themes are: Biotechnology, Hydrogen/Solar Energy, Nanotechnology and Wind/Water. The themes of Technology, Communications and Health Care continue to matter. WSNW rs: please note we update our coverage on the following industry sectors on our premium Silver posting area: S: COMMUNICATIONS, S: COMPUTERS, S: ENERGY, S: HEALTH CARE, S: MINING, S: REITS and S: Leisure. Our 2004 favorite sector themes are: Aging, Biotechs, S: Healthcare Employment & Career Development (H1 2004)Homeland Security Insurance Life Essentials: Energy, Food, Shelter and Water Nanotechnology S: Precious Metals US health care expenses are $1.5 trillion, or more than 14% of the total U.S. economy. This is more than Americans spend on food, housing, or automobiles. We expect major political fireworks into the 2004 election over this issue and we be downgrading this sector ahead of Jupiter's exit from Virgo in late September 2004. Uranus will re-enter Pisces in late December 2003 which will help Biotechs. The best biotechs to buy are those with revenue generating products increasingly close to launch. The easiest way to play this sector is to either market the market leader Amgen (AMGN) or to buy a basket of 20 with the Merrill Lynch Biotech HOLDRS (BBH). Long term investors should look for companies that will benefit from the increasing baby boomer aging population: a baby boomer becomes a senior citizen every 7.5 seconds! Healthcare, especially for retiring babyboomers, will receive more attention and money as time goes by, e.g. Sunrise Assisted Living (SRZ). These range from assisted living communities, to laboratory testing companies to companies that provide orthopedic care and dental products. Drug companies such as Novartis (NVS), but especially generic ones such as Israeli Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA), the largest producer of generic drugs in the world and India's generic-drug makers Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (RDY) and RANBAXY LABS (RBXLF) will benefit. Perhaps most important, and certainly closer to my heart and soul are traditional SRI favorites such as Herbs, Natural Foods, Vitamins and Natural Healing Therapies which will continue to grow market share as Cultural Creatives age. More employers are turning to temps. We will not comment on the obvious longer term social implications of lower wages, lesser benefits and job security. Instead, I will note how this trend is likely to benefit employment agencies.Given the "jobless recovery" as well as Jupiter in Virgo, temporary employment agencies plus vocational training schools stand to benefit. Five favorites to watch and accumulate on weakness are: Manpower (Man) and Teamstaff (TSTF) plus Career Education (CECO), ITT Education (ESI) and Apollo (APOL). It is hard to find a more adpt astrological translation for Saturn (security) in Cancer (Home) than homeland security. Being SRI inclined, there is not too much I wish to buy in this sector except a stock like Taser International (TASR). Other possibilities include Kroll (KROL), London based Securior (LSE:SCR) and microcap Command Security Corporation (CMMD). Our favored financial sector for 2004 is Insurance over Banking and Brokerage, given our forecasts for both higher interest rates and the specter of a stock market decline. Since 911, more Americans see value in having insurance. Even though industry pricing power is beginning to wane, throughout the world, governments and private companies will also have to spend a lot more on insurance. Throughout the world, governments and private companies will also have to spend a lot more on insurance. Our four favorite North American insurers are: AFLAC (AFL), Allstate (ALL), Metropolitan Life ( MET) and SunLife (SLF). Our four favorite foreign insurers are Aegon (AEG), AXA, RenaissanceRe Holdings (RNR) and Swiss Re (SWCEF). In future, we hope to see SRI favorite Fuel Cell, Solar and Wind companies as suitable intermediate term SRI investments. Personal care companies Church and Dwight (CWD) and global giant Unilever (UL) are safe and boring buys, but along with many natural food companies shares, are expensive, e.g. Hain Celestial (HAIN) and Whole Foods (WFMI). They should be considered when their share pricing again intersects with reality. As for shelter, most of our money in this sector is long term invested in our client International Hi-Tech Industries. The number three and fastest growing beverage is Water. Big Euro food groups, Dannone [DA] and Nestle [NSRGF], own the largest brands and remain conservatively profitable. German RWE and French SUEZ are serious global players, while American Stat Water (AWR) and Aqua America (PSC) are good alternative domestic choices in conservative portfolios. Treatment stocks Calgon (CCC) and Ionics (ION) are safe long term holds. The Nanotechnology Research and Development Act authorizes $3.7 billion in federal funds for nanotechnology, the science of building new products and devices by manipulating molecules and atoms.Today, most Nanotechnology investments are largely venture capital plays or early stage R & D developments. However, the hype will grow shortly, if not the reality. The prefix "Nano" in a company name will have a similiar effect to the suffix ".com" last century. We will cover this sector more in our May 2004 update.The cheapest long term protection against the continuing US Dollar decline is GOLD. Geopolitical uncertainty, war, global economic sluggishness and a weak U.S. dollar are good for gold companies. The major factor providing intermediate/long term support for gold is that a further decline in the US dollar is practically inevitable. However, as 2004 is a election year, don't be surprised if Gold is "surprisingly" weak at times. Just as IBM and GE are DOW bell weathers for DOW, so is Newmont (NEM) for gold in BIG money portfolios. FYI: Last century, it was ABX, when hedging wasn't such a dirty word. My favorite major is Placer Dome (PDG). We continue to underweight gold midcaps as investments given they already have built in a gold price of $450. If you prefer the adventure of finding buried treasure as I do, there are over 1000 mining exploration or development stage companies on the TSX alone. I recommend putting from 10% to 20% of one's gold allocation [not total portfolio, but of commodities allocation] into a group of 5 microcaps, which, with obvious bias, includes one AFUND client Gallery. IV STOCKS 2004 will again be more a stock pickers market, than a sector based one. However, less important will be the need to research closely for skeleton's hidden in the closet. They have already been mostly discovered. Having my Moon in Libra, my Stock Selection is both: TOP DOWN: country/currency, bourse/sector, individual stock and BOTTOM UP : strong astrological and/or fundamental/technical indications. I like to begin with one or more of the following 4 criteria: A: CASH RICH, WELL MANAGED AND PROFITABLE, B: UNLOVED BUT UNDERVALUED, C: POSITIVE MOMENTUM AND MONEY FLOWS D: GOOD HOROSCOPE OR IN AN ASTROLOGICALLY FAVORED SECTOR: 1) Jupiter in Virgo until Q4 when Jupiter enters Libra. Winter/Spring 2004's favorite strategy will be Market Neutral Hedging: Buying a strong stock while shorting an appropriate index (SPX or Nasdaq), or Pairs Trading - buying a strong company and selling a weak one in the same sector usually makes money whether the market moves up, down or sideways. Over the next few months, we will not so much be investing as doing short term trades such as shorting Nasdaq Internut-like fantasies. Our first choice this Winter will be cash rich dividend paying global blue chips. These are companies that are prospering by gaining market share and buying "cheap" assets during this economic slowdown over small and midcaps. These are companies that will become far stronger in the long term. Our game plan is to invest conservatively, but due to recent high market volatility and increasingly compressed market cycles, we now advise trading all accounts more actively, at least 50% of portfolio holdings! Note: European and Asian stocks may NO longer rise and fall fully in sync with US markets as the US dollar is now generally recognized to be in a secular decline. WSNW rs should periodically review our S: AFUND GLOBAL 12 - for our favorite global blue chip long term investments. Six selected Investing themes follow. For more and updates, WSNW rs may visit our AFUND premium channels. 1. The US dollar will fall still more, select Country I-Shares or Foreign Blue Chip companies to hedge: Canada (EWC): Accumulate H2 2004. Japan (EWJ): Honda (HMC), Shiseido (SSDOY), Sharp (SHCAY) and Sony (SNE).Netherlands (EWN): H1 2004 outperformance for Aegon (AEG), Heineken (HINKY), Royal Dutch (RD) & Unilever (UL).UK (EWU): H1 2004 outperformance for Allied Domecq (AED), BP (BP), Cadbury Schweppes (CSG) and HSBC (HBC) and International Power (IPR).Switzerland (EWL): Novartis (NVS), Nestle (NSRGF), STM Microelectronics (STM) and SWISS RE (SWCEF). S: AFUND GLOBAL 12 2. We always like undervalued stocks, especially if coupled with a yield greater than the classic value buy signal of 5%. However, for H1 2004, we are happy with 4%. Thereafter, we will be demanding at least 5%. Given Saturn's entry into Cancer, we reduced our previously favored REIT exposure while we wait for more of a downward real estate price adjustment. We also recommend stocks that are 10% or more undervalued or potential M&A acquisition candidates. WSNW rs may wish to read our S: Income& Dividend stocks post for more. 3. S: DJIA FAVORITE 2005 stocks are American Express (AMEX) and surprisingly ATT (T). The latter I presume is due to a buy out, merger or new management strategy. Caterpillar (CAT) in December 2003, IBM and Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) will also be rebought in 2004 for long term buy and hold investment portfolio allocations. However, even Blue Chip stocks have to be traded, not "buy and held" for better than 10% returns in 2004. Our least favorite Dow Dog remains Eastman Kodak, whose days in the Dow is surely numbered. 4. STOCKS FOR BAD TIMESGold, entertainment and consumer staples often outperform in bad times. Such stocks are to be watched and accumulated on weakness before market bulls become concerned that the world economy is not recovering as strongly as they hope and believe. Also considered traditional safe havens in times of uncertainty are utilities and property trusts. However, deregulation and future interest rate increases will make them less attractive in 2004.Our S: Stocks for Bad Times is a defensive, lower risk value oriented portfolio that allows one sleep better at night even if there is more terrorism or the "recovery" takes time and is not on "TV" time? Also included are income oriented stocks as well as an SRI component to feel good about, even if one is not making a ton of money. This, along with Health care, are our two favorite sectors to buy and hold during market weakness. 5. FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES Even before we became one of the first Apple dealers in NYC, we historically have liked betting on emerging technologies. This we recommend doing in a basket of stocks, because this is a high risk-high return investment that is best done in a diversified manner. Also I don't like to pay too much of a premium over value for longer term holding. Note: Given inevitable future boom-bust cycles, the "safe" play is the equipment sellers who always make money. After the Klondike and California gold rush, most miners went home broke. The real money was made by freighters and merchants who brought and marketed supplies. So too with Biotechs, the Internet and Nanotechnology today.Our 2004/2005 favorite ET sectors are: BIOTECHNOLOGY: e.g. BBH and IBB or heavyweights Amgen (AMGN), Cephalon (CEPH) and Genentech (DNA) can be trading buys on strong pullbacks. I prefer to invest in companies that have multiple products in clinical development. SUCCESSOR ENERGY: e.g. Vestas and Gamesa. Watch: FuelCell Energy (FCEL), Hydrogenics (HYGS), Mechanical Technology (MKTY) and Quantum Technologies (QTWW).NANOTECHNOLOGY: Watch: Veeco Instruments (VECO) and FEI (FEIC). *6. AFUND CLIENTS Business Astrologers know that the best way to predict the future is to create it. With strong Disclaimers and with an informed but obviously biased view, I am doing my best to help create investor wealth for client companies we now consult for including International High Tech Industries [iHITF] and Gallery (GARQF).Since May 2, 1988 I have established a superior forecasting record primarily due to my knowledge of financial astrology. While not perfect as some critics would demand, my precision and accuracy is appreciated by many professional traders and investors. As more of our forecasting is now private and contracted to money managers and institutional investors, it is my intention to have other financial astrologers and money managers contribute more on my web site in the future. Latest sample performance figures at AFUND Performance.Henry Weingarten © 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003. Please read our Full Disclaimer : The Astrologers Fund. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, except for brief passages quoted for review without the prior written permission of the publisher. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR LICENSED FINANCIAL PLANNER OR BROKER BEFORE BUYING OR SELLING ON THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE ASTROLOGERS FUND. DISCLAIMER: PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE FORECASTING ACCURACY OR PROFITABLE TRADING RESULTS. The Astrologers Fund Accepts No Liability Whatsoever For Any Loss Arising from Any Use Of Its Report Or It's Contents. The Astrologers Fund Or Its Clients Usually Holds Positions In The Stocks and/or Market Instruments Mentioned And May Buy Or Sell At Any Time Without Notice. This Information Is In No Way A Representation To Buy Or Sell Securities, Bonds, Options Or Futures . Attachment: [not stored] Attachment: vcard [not shown] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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