Why I wouldn't want to be in India if Y2K turns out to be bad

[Guest guest]

It is necessary to read the article quoted below to relate to my remarks.

 

Due to the artificial abundance created in India by the inflated yields from

hybrid seeds and chemical fertilisers, the population has increased. If there

is any disruption in lines of supply getting the seeds and fertiliser to

farmers, crops won't get planted, or get planted with inferior seeds into

fields suffering withdrawals from chemicals, and yields will fall off

dramatically, storehouses will empty, and we will be looking at a crisis of

subsistence that has the potential of being massive.

 

In the US, this would be buffered by the fact that there are huge populations

of animals being fed grain at very inefficient rates of conversion to human

food. Any great fall off in yields will raise prices and effect livestock

producers first. There will be a sell off of stock, probably dropping meat

prices. ( This may not be as dramatic as it might otherwise have been ,

because

we are now at a low point in the historical cycle anyway (prices good,

producers

increase production, overproduction drops prices, production shrinks) so we

are already in a selloff period.) Still, the drop off in feeding livestock

can

compensate for the dropoff in harvest.

 

Additionally, the US exports large amounts of grains, and the cessation of

that export could also free up grains for human consumption.

 

I am not really up on if India is a net exporter of grains, but I do know

that it doesn't feed large amounts of grains to animals for meat production,

so that buffer isn't there.

 

Of course, Y2K may not turn out to be as bad as once thought. If it had

occured 2 or 3 years ago, yes, it would have been traumatic, but so many

measures have been taken so a lot of that has been mitigated, at least in the

US. I am not so sure in India, especially in the agricultural area.

Shortages

raise prices on available fuel, which urban areas are better able to compete

for than farmers. The short term needs of an urban population are hard to put

aside to make available scare fuels for planting needs of dispersed and

unorganised farmers, the effects of which wouldn't be felt for months by the

man on the street.

 

Whatever happens midnight Dec 31, 1999 may not be the full measure of what will

happen. Incidentally, Feb 16 was Chinese New Year (belated Happy New Years

from me to you). It marked the end of the Year of the Tiger, a traditional a

time of great stirrings. Witness what happened to Clinton in his life.

Albania, Iraq, embassy bombings, NBA strike, whatever. Rittvik clamor.

 

This is now the Year of the Rabbit , a calm time with no surprises. The peace

agreement in Albania seems imminent, Clinton's life has certainly calmed down,

the NBA is playing again, these things seem to bolster the idea of calmness.

Based on that, despite the inconveniences of some electrical outages, food

would still be available in the stores for a while, but if it is bad,

shortages will really not start developing until the Year of the Dragon, which

starts in February. I suspect if there will be troubles, you will start to

see

effects in February.

 

Of course, I repeat, I think Y2K may or may not amount to much, but in

whatever form it comes, a storm is coming. Time to get connected to the land,

either directly or through proxy by supporting devotee agriculture.

 

COM: (Temple) Ulan Ude (RU) wrote:

 

> [Text 2101859 from COM]

>

> Report: Wars Have Roots in Roots

> .c The Associated Press

>

> By DAVID BRISCOE

>

> WASHINGTON (AP) -- Look for the roots of war literally in the roots of

> nations' agriculture, suggests a report financed by an organization seeking

> to

> build public understanding of the importance of farming.

>

> The study released today draws a link between poor agriculture and the

> spread

> of regional and internal wars. It estimates that 4 million people have died

> in

> post-Cold War conflicts, 90 percent of them civilians, and points to India

> as

> a country where conflicts have been avoided to a degree with agricultural

> successes.

>

> ``This report demonstrates that providing developing world farmers with the

> fruits of research, when combined with other measures, not only helps to end

> hunger, but can also contribute to ending the increasingly vicious warfare

> that the world has seen during the 1990s,'' said Dr. Indra de Soysa,

> co-author

> of the study conducted for Future Harvest, which commissions research for

> the

> 16 worldwide centers of the U.N.-connected Consultative Group on

> International

> Agricultural Research.

>

> De Soysa said research uncovered a strong link between conditions affecting

> agriculture and poverty and a new pattern of conflicts. The report said the

> new wars are largely internal and tend to reflect crises of subsistence

> rather

> than of ideological conflict or superpower rivalry.

>

> ``These new conflicts can be traced to the loss of livelihood, the

> hopelessness of surviving at the margins, and the alternative life of crime

> and banditry,'' de Soysa said. The report concludes that when people are

> unable to meet their food requirements, their survival strategies often lead

> them to join rebellions or become criminals.

>

> The report describes how India, despite widespread poverty, has avoided

> serious conflicts ``by providing poor farmers with high-tech seeds and

> extension services.''

>

> In the 1960, India and sub-Saharan Africa were each producing about 50

> million

> tons of food a year, but by 1988, India was producing 150 million tons while

> Africa had remained at about the same level, the report said.

>

> ``In contrast to the endemic violence in Africa and in parts of Latin

> America

> that stem largely from subsistence crises, India can serve as an example of

> how effective state action and a functioning participatory political system

> can mitigate serious armed confrontation,'' the report said.

>

> India has had scores of conflicts through the years but its lack of

> widespread

> unrest suggests ways to avoid conflict in other regions, by properly mixing

> agricultural research aimed at developing modern technology for subsistence

> farmers and policies which will increase food production and raise incomes

> of

> the poor, the report said.

>

> With international peacekeeping and emergency humanitarian relief now

> totaling

> more than $10 billion a year, a reduction of conflicts would also benefit

> more

> prosperous nations, it said.

>

> AP-NY-02-16-99 0931EST