Survey: 45% of Y2K experts worried

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By M.J. Zuckerman, USA TODAY

 

WASHINGTON - With little more than six months to go, nearly half

the experts grappling with the Y2K computer problem remain deeply

concerned, according to a unique survey being released Thursday.

 

"About 45% think it's going to be a bump in the road, and

about 45% think it's going to have significant impact," says

Bruce Webster, author of the survey of 337 professionals fixing

or tracking the computer glitch. "And about 10% think it's

going to be the end of the world as we know it."

 

The experts are more pessimistic than the public at large. USA

TODAY polls in March found 65% expected minor problems and 12%

expected no problems.

 

Webster is co-chair of the Washington D.C. Year 2000 Group, an

organization of about 2,000 consultants, executives, lawyers and

others.

 

Areas in which the experts agreed: marked optimism about U.S.

society's ability to cope and marked pessimism about the survival

of essential services or infrastructure such as transportation

and utilities.

 

But White House "Y2K czar" John Koskinen takes issue

with polls and surveys. "No one can tell you with any certainty

what the end of the year is going to look like because so much

work is still under way."

 

The Year 2000 bug arises from programming shortcuts that could

cause computer systems to fail after Dec. 31, 1999.

 

The survey, which can be found at www.wdcy2k.org, shows deep differences:

 

---The economy: 38% expect a 20% loss in stocks and recovery

by 2001; 45% expect a mild six-month recession with 6% unemployment.

 

---Business: 35% predict it will be "jolted a bit"

with January "Y2K holidays" to make fixes; 28% see "major

manufacturing disruptions."

 

---Utilities and infrastructure: 40% predict at least

"short-lived failures" up to seven days; 42% expect

scattered supply and utility problems lasting at least two weeks.

 

---Government: 19% predict one state government will run

into "serious Y2K problems"; 30% expect "at least

one major government agency," such as the IRS, will fail.

 

 

Koskinen says, "The basic infrastructure is going to hold.

There are going to be glitches lasting hours. But, for example,

we don't see any indication that there will be regional brownouts

or blackouts lasting two or three days." And he expects the

IRS "to be declared Y2K ready in several days."