Y2K bug may affect Russian reactors

[Guest guest]

By ASHLEY BAKER

 

WASHINGTON, Sept. 27 (UPI) - Aging Chernobyl-style Soviet nuclear

power reactors are 100 times more likely to experience core meltdowns

than American reactors, a Department of Energy official is expected to

tell a Senate committee.

 

While U.S. officials don't expect a nuclear disaster, the Energy

Department, which has been reviewing reactor safety in the former Soviet

Union, said that some Y2K computer bugs could compromise nuclear safety.

 

In general, the danger from the old Soviet Chernobyl-style RBMK

reactors is much greater than from more modern equipment used in the

United States, the Department of Energy said.

 

"Risk experts calculate that if no safety upgrades (are) performed,

the frequency of a core meltdown accident at an RBMK reactor is

approximately 100 times higher than at a typical U.S. nuclear power

plant," Ken Baker, principal deputy assistant secretary for the Office

of Nonproliferation and National Security, said in written testimony.

UPI obtained an advance copy of Baker's testimony, which is to be

delivered Tuesday to the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000.

 

Baker emphasized he was not expecting a serious accident, despite the

higher risk.

 

He said, "Although some Soviet-designed nuclear power plants

continue to be at higher risk of a nuclear accident based on our current

information, we conclude that there is not a significantly increased

risk of a nuclear accident due to a Y2K event."

 

In 1986, an accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which

relied on a RBMK reactor, sent radioactive clouds across Europe and

contaminated vast regions of the Ukraine.

 

But the Energy Department official downplayed the possibility of

another Chernobyl-like incident, saying that nuclear plants would

automatically shut down before a disaster occurs. A more likely

scenario, he said, could involve the failure of several types of old

Soviet-style reactors scattered throughout Eastern Europe.

 

Baker is among the U.S. officials are monitoring how the Y2K problem

might affect nuclear safety around the world. The Y2K problem stems from

an old-style software in which years were denoted by only the last two

digits. It is believed that some computers will fail or give inaccurate

data when 1999 turns to 2000 and computers read the year as "00,"

perhaps calculating information as though the year was 1900.

 

One issue of Y2K concern, Baker said, is old Soviet "systems without

direct safety impact," such as the plant computer which monitors

conditions within the reactor and provides information to the operator.

For example, the computer might simply shut down on Jan. 1, because it

did not recognize the 2000 date.

 

"Failure of (this) computer is not an immediate safety concern,"

Baker said, "but regulations require that the plant be shutdown within

a few hours, if the computer is not restored to full operation."

 

Baker also said the radiation monitoring system and the ancillary

systems that calculate the state of the reactor core in many Soviet-

designed reactors have "known Y2K vulnerabilities." The operator of

the plant would be required to shut down the reactor if they failed,

Baker said.

 

Baker said the consequences of a shutdown in regions with

traditionally harsh winters would be severe, citing recent figures

showing the extent of the former Soviet Unions reliance upon nuclear

power. In 1997, the nuclear power plants in Russia produced 14 percent

of the nation's electricity. In the far-western parts of Russia, the

share was nearly 25 percent. In 1997, Ukrainian nuclear power plants

produced 47 percent of the nation's electricity.

 

The Soviet Union broke up in 1991. But Baker said 68 nuclear reactors

and infrastructure left by the Soviets still operate in nine countries:

Ukraine, Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Slovakia, Czech

Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria.

 

A Department of Defense official, also scheduled to testify at the

hearing, is expected to emphasize the Clinton administration's position

that there will be no nuclear weapons dangers from Russia despite the

Y2K problem.

 

"Experts in both Russia and the United States agree that the

likelihood of Y2K failures in computer systems associated with our

nuclear weapons, supporting command and control and early warning

systems is extremely remote," said Edward Warner III, assistant

secretary of defense for strategy and threat reduction.

 

While the Department of Defense is less concerned about accidental

launch of missiles, Warner said Russia had only recently begun to

address problems in key security systems, access control, perimeter

monitoring, fire detection and warhead inventory and accountability.

 

Warner said an August revaluation showed "significant progress,"

after Russian officials admitted in a March report that "there had been

no evaluation of computers associated with the physical security and

inventory management systems for Y2K vulnerability."

 

Russia has requested $15.5 million to address Y2K problems relating

to their nuclear arsenal. Congress has taken no action, but Warner said

the Defense Department has reviewed the request and that it "makes

sense."

 

To ease tensions about an accidental launch or a failure in one

country's early warning system, Russian and U.S. officials have agreed

to a joint monitoring center in Colorado Springs. During December and

January, officials from both countries will sit "side by side and

monitor U.S.-provided information on missile and space launches,"

Warner said.

 

If needed, Warner said, U.S. leaders, including not only the

President Clinton but Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, will have

direct voice contact with their Russian counterparts when the new year

begins.

 

William K. McHenry, an associate professor at Georgetown and expert

in Russian computer systems, also scheduled to testify at the hearing

said that he doesn't expect a major nuclear problem, but warned it was

important to continue to monitor potential problems. U.S. policy should

continue to be directed towards forestalling catastrophic failures that

will harm large populations inside and outside of Russia, he said in

prepared testimony.

 

McHenry asked rhetorically what Y2K would mean to an already

economically decimated Russia.

 

"(Russian) politician Gregory Yavlinsky was heard to remark that

Russia's real Y2K problem is Boris Yeltsin," said McHenry, "What

impact can potential computer failures have when GDP has declined an

estimated 43 percent since 1991? Or when the Russian Unified Electrical

System says that it only has 60 percent of the fuel oil it needs for the

fall-winter season?"