A glimpse at what might come...

[Guest guest]

NY Times.com editorial...

 

 

> September 15, 2001

>

> War Without Illusions

>

> here is no doubt that this week's terrorist attacks on New York and

> Washington were the opening salvos in the first American war of the 21st

> century. Less clear is just what sort of war this will be and how the

> United States can ensure that it prevails. George W. Bush, suddenly thrust

> into the unaccustomed role of commander in chief, faces fateful decisions

> about the use of American military power in distant, difficult corners of

> the world. He must design an effective battle plan and couple it with a

> skillful diplomatic campaign that sustains strong international support.

>

> Some of the initial war talk we have heard from Washington is

> disconcerting. Paul Wolfowitz, the deputy secretary of defense, spoke of

> "ending states who sponsor terrorism." That may work as a form of

> intimidation, but we trust he does not have in mind invading and occupying

> Iraq, Iran, Syria and Sudan, as well as Afghanistan, nations with a

> combined population of more than 160 million people.

>

> To be realistic — and successful — in fighting terrorism, the United

> States will have to rely on intensive diplomatic pressure, severe economic

> sanctions and united international support to deal with some of the

> nations that support terrorist activities. Forcing a change of governments

> in places like Iraq or Syria would require in each case the application of

> military power on the same scale that was used in the Persian Gulf war, or

> greater. Changing the behavior of the present governments, however, may be

> possible through concerted and sustained pressure from the coalition of

> nations that Mr. Bush is trying to assemble.

>

> For now, at least, the one state where American military power might be

> effectively used is Afghanistan, where the Taliban-led government is host

> to Osama bin Laden, the prime suspect in Tuesday's attack. But removing

> the Taliban from power and hunting down Mr. bin Laden's Afghanistan-based

> followers would be no easy task, even for America's powerful armed forces.

>

> Trying to dislodge the Taliban, capture Mr. bin Laden and eradicate

> terrorist training camps from Afghanistan would be extremely difficult if

> American and NATO forces had to operate from afar, using air bases in

> Turkey, aircraft carriers in the Indian Ocean and airborne assault troops.

> Afghanistan, a mountainous land of widely dispersed villages and fiercely

> independent people, is a general's nightmare and guerrilla commander's

> fantasy, as the Soviet Union learned after it invaded in 1979.

>

> Even a military campaign launched from nearby nations like Pakistan and

> the former Soviet republics of Central Asia would be arduous. Ousting the

> Taliban would probably require a ground invasion leading to the capture

> and occupation of Kabul, the capital, and other main cities. That would

> still leave the rugged countryside, where the terrorist base camps are

> located, beyond American military control. Difficult ground expeditions

> would have to be launched against the bin Laden organization's scattered

> hillside encampments.

>

> No warm welcome can be expected from Afghanistan's 26 million people, who

> have traditionally greeted outside armies with hostility. Controlling

> Kabul has never given any government or occupier mastery over the rest of

> Afghanistan. If Mr. Bush wants to wage war there he must understand the

> risks and plan a campaign crafted to overcome the dangers that American

> forces would encounter.

>

> The cooperation of Russia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, all with airfields

> and military staging areas within striking distance of Afghanistan, is

> likely to be critical to success. Some form of Russian support seems

> possible, and Saudi Arabia is now considering American requests for

> various kinds of help. Pakistan is more problematic, despite its

> government's pledges of cooperation. Even if Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the

> country's military dictator, agrees to support American military action,

> other army leaders and powerful Islamic fundamentalist groups are closely

> aligned with the Taliban. Any American victories in Afghanistan would

> quickly turn into a catastrophic defeat if the war there turned Pakistan,

> with its 142 million people and nuclear weapons, into an Islamic

> fundamentalist state.

>

> In the anger and revulsion generated by this week's attacks, it is all too

> easy to wish for a quick and decisive American military response. But the

> nature of the enemy, and the sanctuaries where he hides, promise to make

> this a long and unpredictable war. As it begins, Mr. Bush and the nation

> must be under no illusions about the battles ahead.