Happy Farms multi-variate regression models

[Guest guest]

>

> If we were to believe that a great failing of ISKCON

> farms were due to poor management - lack of success

> due to lack of training - of which a thousand stories

> can be told, then if one were to approach the whole

> story with a fresh sheet of paper then success may be

> able to replace failure.

>

 

While there may wel be 999 stories of poor management, in NV the

management was good, just with the flawed premise of paying expenses

out of income and spending donations as they came, no amount of good

tactics could make up for bad strategy.

 

>

> Also, if business was seen as one of the "four" legs

> that cow protection were to stand on - charity,

> public, private and will of the Lord, and not as a

> capital sin - but as the role of a vaisya.

 

Good business is an essential componenet of any viable cow protection

scheme.

 

>

> One can therefore see the mature population cycle at

> around 20 years, the maximum, minimum and optimum

> intensity of milk production and amount of oxen

> available. It would be possible to estimate the costs

> - and basically map the whole system, according to the

> variants within the MVR.

 

That is essential.

 

>

>

> Depending on the make up between charitable, public

> and private income, costs, subsidies, regulations,

> etc, it would therefore be possible to have a basket

> of solutions of how to meet such growth of business,

> of activity of a growing dynamic herd and the

> production that it entails.

 

Yes.

 

>

> I seriously believe that with an MVR there would be a

> data base and projection system for various

> intensities of growth and production potentials.

> I ask anyone here who is seriously interested in a

> productive secular or sectarian farming system with

> lifetime protected farm animals to help to produce

> such an analysis.

 

I can help by pointing out variables, and that i do best by analyzing

an existing model for missing varaibles, which uses my propensity to

find fault. I lack the training to actually build such a model.

[Guest guest]

Dear Syamasundara das

 

7.26 litres per day (1.92 gallons) daily milk yield per cow .... I take it

that this is the average for the fourth year.

 

What does it break down to on a yearly basis?

365 days (xxx litres), 730 days (xxx litres), 1095 days (xxxlitres), 1267

days (3.47 years at an average of 7.26 litres - 1.92 gallons per day).

 

What kind of feed were the cows receiving?

1. Pasture, grass species, season (include number of days grazed), type of

grazing (rapid rotation, continuous etc.), length of daily period grazing.

2. Concentrates (dairy mix 18 %, self produced, etc., )

3. Other types of fodder fed;

hay, silage, green chop, etc. (amount fed per day per animal or hours of

access too and the quality fed)

 

I believe previously you said the cows were of Holstein and

Meuse-Rhine-Yssel ancestry?

 

If the predominance of forage is obtained from pasture, what was the average

rainfall during the grazing season, do you use chemicals or what other

method of fertilization.?

 

What is the pastures, soil type (black loam, woody, sand etc.), what is its

soil capability classification (agricultural, agricultural with some

limitations, agricultural with sever limitations, marginal or

non-agricultural) and do the cows have access to woodlands and/or native

grasses (if so for how long)? What is your carring capacity per acre?

 

Now having asked all these questions I need to say that your productions

figures will only be transferable under similar conditions, so before Mark

precedes further we need to know what conditions he plans to operate under

in order to use the above figures or find a way to arrive what production he

could expect under the conditions he has to work with.

 

I am saying this, because here in New Talavan under year round grazing

(ryegrass [rapid rotation], with free access to bahia and ryegrass hay

during the winter season and bahia [slow rotation] in summer season) from

cows that are of predominately Jersey (68%) with Swiss, Guernsey and trace

of other breeds, on marginal land (sandy soil), with a carring capacity of

ten acres (unfertilized) per cow. I reach the 7.26 litre per day level at

about 500 days. At three and a half years the cows are not worth milking, as

they give such small amount to meet our daily quota 8 gallons (30.3 litres)

we would have to increase the numbers above this level which means

increasing our number of calves per year. Of course this system we are in

leaves no room for marketing the quoted figure is temple use only - our base

line figures.

ys, Rohita dasa

 

-

Syamasundara (das) (Bhaktivedanta Manor - UK) <Syamasundara (AT) pamho (DOT) net>

mark chatburn <markjon11 >; Mark Middle Mountain

<gourdmad (AT) ovnet (DOT) com>; Cow (Protection and related issues) <Cow (AT) pamho (DOT) net>

Friday, June 08, 2001 2:45 AM

Happy Farms multi-variate regression models

 

 

> Dear John,

>

> The records I have kept over the years have shown the following averages:-

>

> Daily milk yield - 7.26 litres per day

>

> Length of lactation - 3.47 years

>

> The average lactation could be slightly longer on average. We dried off

one

> cow after 5 years because we thought she was pregnant when she wasn't. She

> could have gone on for another year which would have made a slight

increase

> in the overall average.

>

> Sometimes a cow got pregnant without permission and thus she had a second

> calf in the time she should have been still on her first lactation.

>

> I have attatched the excel document for your information. Hope you can get

> it.

>

> ys syam

>

[Guest guest]

Dear all,

 

Below is a summary of the best averages taken from

Syam's excell file (for a copy write directly to him

or me and it`ll get to you, as it doesn´t carry on the

conference).

 

Milk total (days milking shown below respectively)

in litres:

 

8113

13890

9860

13108

8870

10083

10213

8099

9516

 

average:

10195

 

Days milking:

 

1050

2155

1127

2033

1079

1687

1559

901

685

 

average:

1364 days, which equalls 3.7 years

 

10195 litres / 1364 days = 7.5 litres per day average.

 

 

It is notable on the spreadsheet that each year the

performance of the cows in general is better than the

years before, definately due to refing the system. It

could probably still be refined further, for example

with a better choice of pure breed, organic feed,

clear perception of herd behaviour.

 

I based my research on these figures to come out with

the averages for each year.

 

Year 1 lactation: 13

Year 2 lactation: 9

Year 3 lactation: 6

Year 4 lactation: 4

 

Average: 8 litres per day over a 4-year lactation.

 

As Rohini rightly points out, these figures are not

set in stone, and could be on the upper end of a

maximum optimum production regime. It will depend on

environmental conditions, cow species and breed, feed

and care, health and milking experience.

 

Again I state, if we can work with these numbers and

come to a conclusion of the maximum optimum in which

we are prepared to work the animals then we can easily

cost this part of the system, incorporating males into

the costs or not. If the males are then to be worked

for crops as well we then have the cost basis of the

system.

 

The system could work just with cows milk on its own,

but for other reasons it is advisable to cost ox/crops

as well. Though if that makes it more expensive I feel

it leaves a raionale to move forward just dairying to

start with, otherwise we could be waiting years to

find the ox/crop dynamics and preventing widespread

cow protection just because we can't make oxen

profitable.

 

Still, from the figures on the spreadsheet it should

be possibel to come up with a production recomendation

of maximum optimum. With this we can see what are all

the inputs, how to finance it, thus derive an

operating cost, and thus price to sell both milk and

milk products (green milk is still allowed in Europe).

 

Even if no outside market is taken, it would be good

for the temple to pay the operating cost, as I feel to

actually pay the price makes people aware of the

special value of this milk, otherwise they´ll just buy

blood milk. Bhaktivedanta Manor pays $1.50 per litre

for the farms milk, they also pay a full-time milker a

"living" wage.

 

Syam, if I'm wrong here, please feel free to correct

me.

 

Mark

 

__________

 

Get your free @.co.uk address at http://mail..co.uk

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[Guest guest]

>Dear Syamasundara das

>

>7.26 litres per day (1.92 gallons) daily milk yield per cow .... I take it

>that this is the average for the fourth year.

>

>What does it break down to on a yearly basis?

>365 days (xxx litres), 730 days (xxx litres), 1095 days (xxxlitres), 1267

>days (3.47 years at an average of 7.26 litres - 1.92 gallons per day).

>

>What kind of feed were the cows receiving?

>1. Pasture, grass species, season (include number of days grazed), type of

>grazing (rapid rotation, continuous etc.), length of daily period grazing.

>2. Concentrates (dairy mix 18 %, self produced, etc., )

>3. Other types of fodder fed;

>hay, silage, green chop, etc. (amount fed per day per animal or hours of

>access too and the quality fed)

>

>I believe previously you said the cows were of Holstein and

>Meuse-Rhine-Yssel ancestry?

>

>If the predominance of forage is obtained from pasture, what was the

>average

>rainfall during the grazing season, do you use chemicals or what other

>method of fertilization.?

>

>What is the pastures, soil type (black loam, woody, sand etc.), what is its

>soil capability classification (agricultural, agricultural with some

>limitations, agricultural with sever limitations, marginal or

>non-agricultural) and do the cows have access to woodlands and/or native

>grasses (if so for how long)? What is your carring capacity per acre?

>

>Now having asked all these questions I need to say that your productions

>figures will only be transferable under similar conditions, so before Mark

>precedes further we need to know what conditions he plans to operate under

>in order to use the above figures or find a way to arrive what production

>he

>could expect under the conditions he has to work with.

 

**************************

 

And this is only a fraction of it........

There is much more...

 

good stuff, Rohita

Hare Krsna,

Derek-

 

***************************

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

>I am saying this, because here in New Talavan under year round grazing

>(ryegrass [rapid rotation], with free access to bahia and ryegrass hay

>during the winter season and bahia [slow rotation] in summer season) from

>cows that are of predominately Jersey (68%) with Swiss, Guernsey and trace

>of other breeds, on marginal land (sandy soil), with a carring capacity of

>ten acres (unfertilized) per cow. I reach the 7.26 litre per day level at

>about 500 days. At three and a half years the cows are not worth milking,

>as

>they give such small amount to meet our daily quota 8 gallons (30.3 litres)

>we would have to increase the numbers above this level which means

>increasing our number of calves per year. Of course this system we are in

>leaves no room for marketing the quoted figure is temple use only - our

>base

>line figures.

>ys, Rohita dasa

 

 

Good set of marbles.

 

 

 

 

 

>-

>Syamasundara (das) (Bhaktivedanta Manor - UK)

><Syamasundara (AT) pamho (DOT) net>

>mark chatburn <markjon11 >; Mark Middle Mountain

><gourdmad (AT) ovnet (DOT) com>; Cow (Protection and related issues) <Cow (AT) pamho (DOT) net>

>Friday, June 08, 2001 2:45 AM

>Happy Farms multi-variate regression models

>

>

> > Dear John,

> >

> > The records I have kept over the years have shown the following

>averages:-

> >

> > Daily milk yield - 7.26 litres per day

> >

> > Length of lactation - 3.47 years

> >

> > The average lactation could be slightly longer on average. We dried off

>one

> > cow after 5 years because we thought she was pregnant when she wasn't.

>She

> > could have gone on for another year which would have made a slight

>increase

> > in the overall average.

> >

> > Sometimes a cow got pregnant without permission and thus she had a

>second

> > calf in the time she should have been still on her first lactation.

> >

> > I have attatched the excel document for your information. Hope you can

>get

> > it.

> >

> > ys syam

> >

>

 

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