Happy Farms multi-variate regression models

[Guest guest]

Hi all,

 

Some simple modelling, as attachments don't carry on

this conference then I thought I'd try another way:

 

Below is a simple expansion model based on 3 calves

born per year within a 20 year mature cycle. At year

20, even with 3 calves being added to the system the

quantity stays the same as the 3 older calves die off.

 

Model 1 = 12:60 model

---------

 

70]

c 60] ___________________________

o 50] /

w 40] /

s 30] /

20] /

 

10]_/______________

0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6

10 20 years 30 40

 

12:60 model =

3 calves born per year; 12 cows milking;

mature herd of 60 cows at year 20;

1 milkperson twice a day, 7 days a week.

 

Milk yield = 4 year lactations @ 3 cows per 4 years @

average milk yield of 8 litres per day =

 

(3*4*8)= 96 litres per day @ $1.1 = $100 per day

 

 

 

Model 2 = 24:120 model

---------

 

In this model the numbers duplicate to make way for 3

milkers sharing the 14 sessions per week to give time

off and holidays.

 

140]

c 120]

___________________________

o 100] /

w 80] /

s 60] /

40] /

20]/______________

0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6

10 20 years 30 40

 

24:120 model =

6 calves born per year; 24 cows milking;

mature herd of 120 cows;

2 milkperson twice a day, 5 days a week shared between

3 milkpersons = time for 2 day rest and holidays.

 

Milk yield = 4 year lactations @ 6 cows per 4 years @

average milk yield of 8 litres per day =

 

(6*4*8)= 192 litres per day @ $1.1 = $200 per day

 

 

 

Model 3 = exponential model

---------

 

1000]____ ______

700]____ /

400] I

350] I

c 300] /

o 250] _/

w 200] __/

s 150] _____/

100] _______/

50]¨¨¨¨___________

0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6

10 20 years 30 40

 

Here the idea is that within a short period of time

the population expands exponentially, ending in an S

shaped graph many years down the road when market

saturation becomes visible and population expansion

will need to be contained.

 

The point here is to put each of the cows into a unit

model (as above) so that each cow is part of a

productive system, and is therefore paying its way, or

with charitable backing.

 

Therefore initial exponential growth is fine as long

as there is a farm unitisation to accomodate all the

animals.

 

NOTE: The above does not include new entrants into the

system from futher "saved" animals, but only

population expansion from breeding the original

"saved" stock. Any other "saved" animals would need to

be accounted individually and bred within their own

acounting system.

 

 

Model 4 = 30:150 model variant

---------

 

In this model the numbers alter due to breeding in

more than required to bifuricate the system (units

split into two), both individually accounted for and

financed, of sell of animals (or leases) to new

entrants.

 

breed in breed out

160] ____

140] --/ \ -

c 120] --/

______\_-__________________

o 100] / /

w 80] / /

s 60] / /

40] / /

20]/______________

0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6

10 20 years 30 40

 

30-24:150-120 model =

7-8 calves born per year; 30 cows milking, reducing to

24 depending on extent of bifurication, sales or

breeding down the system;

 

mature herd of 150 cows, but reduces to 120 due to

bifurication or sales;

3 milkperson twice a day, 5 days a week shared between

4 milkpersons = time for 2 day rest and holidays.

 

Milk yield = 4 year lactations @ 7.5 cows per 4 years

@ average milk yield of 8 litres per day =

 

(7.5*4*8)= 240 litres per day @ $1.1 = $250 per day

 

plus sales of cows

 

plus eventual maturity to be reduced to 120 or below

depending on success of sales and bifurication.

 

 

Major assumption - a market to sell or exchange cows,

especially useful for the pioneers, but also the

secondary uptakers will have humanised cows to start

breeding with.

 

Problem - no need to save too many other cows, as the

need is to breed cows to take market share, and land

area = presence.

 

 

Just some models for now - out of time for more

variants.

 

Ideas?

 

Mark

 

 

 

__________

 

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