Backcasting and Calibrating Predictions

[Guest guest]

valist, Richard E Wurst <> wrote:

>

>

> Oh what I was saying was immature style jyotish

>

> I simply and only was looking at Jup in Sco and Sat/Ket in Leo,

that¹s it.

>

> And then going:

>

> Leo rules among other things the kinds of lands that are the Arab and

> African Nations, in large part at least.

>

> Then, it also rules independence, and leaders.

>

> Sco is underground, and mysterious and has a poison stinger.

>

>

> So....

>

> The two big killers, Sat/Ket are in Leo, that¹s kinda rare, so from that

> lone I said death to leaders in desert places. That¹s all.

 

 

 

It is prudent, IMO, to "backcast" all predictions -- see what happened

during the last similar configuration. This helps "calibrate" jyotish

"theory" with actual events -- sharpening the focus of "ancient"

theory -- which is based on another age, partially passed down, and

undoubtedly somewhat offbase translations.

 

Can be done for individuals via "jyotish diaries/bios" -- particularly

as some of us have gone through a number of cycles and patterns in

this life.

 

And for mundane predictions, historical timelines are a wonderful

tool. Would be great to have these incorporated into GJ. So that for

any specific palent position, conjunction, yoga, etc, one can

instantly see what has happened previously. Same with individual if

they fill out a bio/diary if such were incorporated in GJ. (And/or

what happened in bios of others of same ascendant, etc, under that

particular pattern.)

 

Another useful GJ addition, IMO, would be to present the "rarity" of

any particular configuration. Sa in Leo occurs about 8% of the time.

Not so rare. Sa and KE in Leo is much rarer. Over 1000 years, how many

days has that occurred. Divide by 356,000 for "rarity" %. Predicting

some very rare event when the causal pattern occurs 8% of the time, is

not a good or valid prediction. Very rare events should be

distinguished by very rare causal patterns.

 

Here are some historic parallels to SA and Ketu in Leo. Related,

broadly, to Middle-east, arabs, oil, past rulers (Britian) and related

themes.

 

The three periods:

 

 

SA in Leo, conjunct Rahu most of 1979

This was a most dramatic period in middle east. In other periods,

signicant things happened, but would need to be contrasted with "all"

periods to see how significant such are relative to the normal flow of

events over time.

 

This is important -- a prediction should distinguish events that

happpen during the particular pattern, and DON'T occur (at least in

same magnitude and frequency) when that pattern is absent. For

example to say earthquakes will occur when x is in y, is meningless if

the same number and magnitude of eathquakes, on average, occur in

other periods.

 

 

SA in Leo, Ke dances close to SA on cusp in Virgo middle part of 1950

 

1920-mid 1921: SA in Leo and KE is 5 houses from SA in Aries

 

 

 

 

-----------------------

 

 

SA in Leo, conjunct Rahu

1979

 

January

* January 16 - The Shah of Iran flees Iran with his family,

relocating to Egypt after

* February 1 - Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returns to Tehran, Iran

after nearly 15 years of exile.

* February 3 - Khomeini creates the Council of the Islamic Revolution.

* February 7 - Supporters of Khomeini take over the Iranian law

enforcement, courts and government administration.

* February 7 - Pluto moves inside Neptune's orbit for the first

time since either was known to science.

* February 10-February 11 - The Iranian army mutinies and joins

the Islamic Revolution.

* February 11 - Khomeini seizes power in Iran.

* February 12 - Prime Minister Hissène Habré starts the battle of

N'Djamena in an attempt to overthrow Chad's President Félix Malloum.

* February 14 - In Kabul, Muslim extremists kidnap the American

ambassador to Afghanistan, Adolph Dubs, who is later killed during a

gunfight between his kidnappers and police.

* February 17 - The People's Republic of China invades northern

Vietnam, launching the Sino-Vietnamese War.

* February 18 - The Sahara Desert experiences snow for 30 minutes.

* February 26 - A total solar eclipse arcs over northern Canada,

and a partial solar eclipse is visible over almost all of North

America and Central America. [2]

 

* March 13 - Maurice Bishop leads a successful coup in Grenada.

* March 26 - In a ceremony at the White House, President Anwar

Sadat of Egypt and Prime Minister Menachem Begin of Israel sign a

peace treaty.

* March 28 - A nuclear power plant accident at Three Mile Island,

Pennsylvania, releases radiation.

* March 29 - Sultan Yahya Petra ibni Almarhum Sultan Ibrahim

Petra, the 6th Yang di-Pertuan Agong of Malaysia, dies in office. He

is replaced by Sultan Haji Ahmad Shah Al-Mustain Billah ibni Almarhum

Sultan Sir Abu Bakar Riayatuddin Al-Muadzam Shah, Sultan of Pahang.

* April 1 - Iran's government becomes an Islamic Republic by a 98%

vote, overthrowing the Shah officially.

* April 4 - President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto of Pakistan is executed.

* April 11 - Tanzanian troops take Kampala, the capital of Uganda;

Idi Amin flees.

Margaret Thatcher, the first female Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Enlarge

Margaret Thatcher, the first female Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

* May 4 - Conservatives win the British general election; Margaret

Thatcher becomes the new prime minister.

* June 2 - Pope John Paul II visits his native Poland, becoming

the first Pope to visit a Communist country.

* June 3 - A blowout at the Ixtoc I oil well in the southern Gulf

of Mexico causes at least 600,000 tons (176,400,000 gallons) of oil to

be spilled into the waters, the worst oil spill to date. Some estimate

the spill to be 428 million gallons, making it the largest

unintentional oil spill ever.

* June 18 - Jimmy Carter and Leonid Brezhnev sign the SALT II

agreement in Vienna.

* July 3 - U.S. President Jimmy Carter signs the first directive

for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul.

* July 16 - Iraqi President Hasan al-Bakr resigns and Vice

President Saddam Hussein replaces him.

* July 19 - The Marxist Sandinistas take control of Nicaragua.

* July 31 - Four hundred Iranian pilgrims are killed after clashes

with Saudi security forces in Mecca.

* August 27 - Lord Mountbatten and 3 others are assassinated by

the I.R.A.. He was a British admiral, statesman and an uncle of Prince

Philip, Duke of Edinburgh.

* September 7 - The Chrysler Corporation asks the United States

government for $1 billion to avoid bankruptcy.

* September 12 - Hurricane Frederic makes landfall at 10:00 p.m.

on Alabama's Gulf Coast.

* September 29 - Equatoguinean dictator Francisco Macías Nguema is

executed by Moroccan hired men.

* October 1-October 6 - Pope John Paul II visits the United States.

* October 21 - Two hundred fifty-nine Muslim radicals occupy Kaaba

and the Grand Mosque in Mecca; Saudi Arabian and French security

forces go in to expel them.

* October 26 - South Korean president Park Chung Hee is killed by

KCIA head Kim Jaekyu.

* October 27 - Saint Vincent and the Grenadines gains independence.

 

* November 1 - Iran hostage crisis: Iranian Ayatollah Ruhollah

Khomeini urges his people to demonstrate on November 4 and to expand

attacks on United States and Israeli interests.

* November 4 - Iran hostage crisis begins: 3,000 Iranian radicals,

mostly students, invade the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and take 90

hostages (53 of whom are American). They demand that the United States

send the former Shah back to Iran to stand trial.

* November 7 - U.S. Senator Edward Moore Kennedy announces that he

will challenge President Jimmy Carter for the 1980 Democratic Party

presidential nomination.

* November 12 - Iran hostage crisis: In response to the hostage

situation in Tehran, U.S. President Jimmy Carter orders a halt to all

oil imports into the United States from Iran.

* November 14 - Iran hostage crisis: U.S. President Jimmy Carter

issues Executive Order 12170, freezing all Iranian assets in the

United States and U.S. banks in response to the hostage crisis.

* November 17 - Iran hostage crisis: Iranian leader Ruhollah

Khomeini orders the release of 13 female and black American hostages

being held at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.

* November 20 - A group of around 200 militant Sunni Muslims

occupy Mecca's Grand Mosque. They are driven out by French commandos

(allowed into the city under these special circumstances despite their

being non-Muslims) after bloody fighting that leaves 250 people dead

and 600 wounded.

* November 21 - After false radio reports from the Ayatollah

Khomeini that the Americans had occupied the Great Mosque in Mecca,

the United States Embassy in Islamabad, Pakistan is attacked by a mob

and set afire, killing 4. (see: Foreign relations of Pakistan)

* December 24 - The Soviet Union invades Afghanistan.

* December 27 - The Soviet Union seizes control of Afghanistan,

and Babrak Karmal replaces overthrown and executed President

Hafizullah Amin.

 

Births -- to give some flavor for that period

* February 21 - Jennifer Love Hewitt, American actress and singer

* March 30 - Norah Jones, American musician

* April 4 - Heath Ledger, Australian actor

* April 12 - Claire Danes, American actress

* April 19 - Kate Hudson, American actress

* May 29 - Casey Sheehan, American soldier (Son of anti-war

activist Cindy Sheehan)

* September 8 - P!nk, American singer

* December 28 - James Blake, American tennis pro

 

Deaths

 

* January 3 - Conrad Hilton, American hotelier (b. 1887)

* January 5 - Charles Mingus, American musician (b. 1922)

* January 26 - Nelson Rockefeller, Governor of New York, Vice

President of the United * March 29 - Sultan Yahya Petra ibni

Almarhum Sultan Ibrahim Petra, King of Malaysia (b. 1917)

* March 30 - Airey Neave, British politician (assassinated) (b. 1916)

* April 4 - Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, President and Prime Minister of

Pakistan (executed) * May 11 - Barbara Hutton, American socialite

(b. 1912)

* May 29 - Mary Pickford, Canadian actress and studio founder (b.

1892)

* June 11 - John Wayne, American actor (b. 1907)

* August 27 - Earl Mountbatten, last British Viceroy of India

(assassinated) (b. 1900)

* August 31 - Sally Rand, American dancer (b. 1904)

* October 22 - Nadia Boulanger, French composer and composition

teacher (b. 1887)

* October 26 - Park Chung-hee, President of South Korea (b. 1917)

* October 30 - Donna Rachele Mussolini, Italian, wife of Benito

Mussolini (b. 1890)

* November 1 - Mamie Eisenhower, First Lady of the United States

(b. 1896)

* December 23 - Peggy Guggenheim, American art collector (b. 1898)

Nobel prizes

* Peace - Mother Teresa

 

 

 

 

===========================

SA in Leo, Ke dances close to SA on cusp in Virgo

 

1950

 

 

* March 22 - Egypt demands that Britain remove all its troops in

Suez Canal

* April 24 - Jordan formally annexes West Bank

* April 27 - Apartheid: In South Africa, the Group Areas Act is

passed formally segregating races.

* April 27 - Britain formally recognizes Israel

* June 6 - Turkey: The Adhan in Arabic is legalized

* June 25 - Beginning of Korean War. In the USA, people began to

hoard supplies in case of rationing and shortages.

* June 28 - Korean War - North Korean forces capture Seoul

* August 15 - Earthquake and floods in Assam, India - 574 deaths,

5,000,000 believed homeless

* September 15 - Allied troops land in Inchon, occupied by North

Korea, to begin the Battle of Inchon.

* October 26 - Sister Mary Teresa begins her charity work in

Calcutta and becomes known as Mother Teresa

 

* November 22 - Anti-British riots in Egypt

* November 26 - Korean War: Troops from the People's Republic of

China move into North Korea and launch a massive counterattack against

South Korean and American forces, ending any thought of a quick end to

the conflict.

* November 29 - Korean War: North Korean and Chinese troops force

a desperate retreat * November 30 - Truman threatens to use

nuclear weapons in Korea

 

 

 

========================

 

1920-mid 1921

 

SA in Leo and KE is 5 houses from SA in Aries

 

 

January

 

* January 7 - Forces of Russian White admiral Kolchak surrender in

Krasnoyarsk.

* January 16 - Prohibition begins in the United States with the

Eighteenth Amendment to the Constitution coming into effect.

* January 16 - Allies demand that the Netherlands extradite the

German Kaiser, who has fled there.

* January 19 - The United States Senate votes against joining the

League of Nations.

* January 28 - Turkey gives up the Ottoman Empire and all

non-Turkish areas.

* February 24 - Adolf Hitler presents his National Socialist

program in Munich.

 

* March 13-March 17 - Wolfgang Kapp fails in his coup attempt in

Germany due to public resistance and a general strike.

* March 15 - Red Army of Ruhr, communist army 60.000 men strong,

formed

* March 19 - US Congress refuses to ratify Versailles Treaty.

* April 4 - Jerusalem pogrom of April, 1920 ? Violence between

Arabic and Jewish resident in Jerusalem ? governor declares the state

of siege

* April 23 - National council in Turkey denounces the government

of sultan Mehmed VI and announces a temporary constitution.

* April 24 - Polish-Soviet War: Polish and Anti-Soviet Ukrainian

troops attack the Red Army in Soviet Ukraine.

* May 16 - In Rome, Pope Benedict XV canonizes Joan of Arc as a saint.

* June 22 - Greece attacks Turkish troops.

* July 14 - France declares that Faisal I of Syria is deposed and

occupies Damascus and Aleppo

* July 17 - Republic of Mirdite proclaimed near Albanian-Serbian

border with Yugoslav support

* July 22 - Polish-Soviet War: Poland sues for peace with

Bolshevist Russia.

* July 25 - First transatlantic two-way radio broadcast?

* July 26 - Pancho Villa takes over Sabina and contacts de la

Huerta to offer his conditional surrender. He signs his surrender in

July 28

* August 10 - Ottoman sultan Mehmed VI's representatives sign the

Treaty of Sèvres.

* August 13 - August 25 - Polish-Soviet War: The Red Army is

defeated in the Battle of Warsaw.

* September 29 - Adolf Hitler makes first public political speech,

in Austria.

 

* October 27 - League of Nations moves its headquarters to Geneve,

Switzerland

* November 2 - Warren G. Harding defeats James M. Cox in the U.S.

presidential election, the first national U.S. election in which women

have the right to vote.

* November 15 - In Geneva, the first assembly of the League of

Nations is held.

* December 16 - 8.6 Richter scale Earthquake causes landslide in

Gansu Province, China - 180.000 dead.

* December 23 - United Kingdom and France ratify the border

between French-held Syria and British-held Palestine.

 

 

1921

 

January

 

* February 6 - Five Power Naval Disarmament Treaty signed between

United States, Britain, Japan, France, and Italy

* February 28 - The United Kingdom accepts the independence of Egypt.

* March 11 - Mohandas Gandhi is arrested in Bombay for sedition

* March 15 - Egypt having gained nominal independence from the

United Kingdom, Fuad I becomes King of Egypt.

* March 18 - In India, Mohandas Gandhi is sentenced to six years

in prison for sedition. He would serve only two years.

* April 7 - Teapot Dome scandal: United States Secretary of the

Interior leases Teapot Dome oil reserves in Wyoming.

* June 28 - The Irish Civil War begins

[Guest guest]

Dear List

 

One of jyotish's brightest lights Ron Grimes of Utah U.S.A used to emphasise the bright side of Ketu in bringing clarity. Now the next 18 months Ketu sits in the royal sign of Leo and we on the optimistic side can hope for some clarity in terms of leadership( although it is liely to be painful ) Just as Roosevelt's policies lifted America from the great depression in 1933 when Ketu also sat in Leo we can hope that the dark forces that have captured the White House will be removed.

 

The dark coalition of flush military contractors, unscrupulous political operatives and evagenilical " Christians" who bear little resemblence to what Christ actually taught for too long were able to play on the fears of the US populace which has woken up to the nightmare of huge budget deficts to fund unnecessary military expenditure in the name of fear and national aggrandisement and using the excessive profits of the military industrial complex to vilify decent opposing politicians while fooling the people into accepting miserable wages in the questionable assumption that the US is the best country.

 

The rest of the world is thankful to the US voters

 

N

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-

Richard

valist

Friday, November 10, 2006 4:19 PM

Backcasting and Calibrating Predictions