Celente Predictions...

AncientMariner · November 13, 2008

Celente Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012

Paul Joseph Watson

Thursday, November 13, 2008

The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.

Gerald Celente, the CEO of

Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.

Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.

“We’re going to see the end of the retail Christmas….we’re going to see a fundamental shift take place….putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree,” said Celente, adding that the situation would be “worse than the great depression”.

“America’s going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for,” said Celente, noting that people’s refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.

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Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as “The Panic of 2008,” adding that “giants (would) tumble to their deaths,” which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others. He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 per cent.

The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by

plummeting retail sales figures.

The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a

British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super rich and the middle class, along with an urban underclass threatening social order would mean, “The world’s middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest,” and that, “The middle classes could become a revolutionary class.”

In a separate recent interview, Celente went further on the subject of revolution in America.

“There will be a revolution in this country,” he said. “It’s not going to come yet, but it’s going to come down the line and we’re going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D. C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen.”

“The first thing to do is organize with tax revolts. That’s going to be the big one because people can’t afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You’re going to start seeing those kinds of protests start to develop.”

“It’s going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we’re going to see many more.”

“We’re going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It’s going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It’s going to come as a shock and with it, there’s going to be a lot of crime. And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people’s minds weren’t wrecked on all these modern drugs – over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be. So, you have a huge underclass of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody’s comprehension.”

The George Washington blog has compiled a list of quotes attesting to Celente’s accuracy as a trend forecaster.

“When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente.”

— CNN Headline News

“A network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties.”

— The Economist

“Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right.”

— USA Today

“There’s not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he’s talking about.”

- CNBC

“Those who take their predictions seriously … consider the Trends Research Institute.”

— The Wall Street Journal

“Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark … he’s one of the most accurate forecasters around.”

— The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

“Mr. Celente tracks the world’s social, economic and business trends for corporate clients.”

— The New York Times

“Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority.”

— 48 Hours, CBS News

“Gerald Celente has a solid track record. He has predicted everything from the 1987 stock market crash and the demise of the Soviet Union to green marketing and corporate downsizing.”

— The Detroit News

“Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, ‘green marketing,’ and the boom in gourmet coffees.”

— Chicago Tribune

“The Trends Research Institute is the Standard and Poors of Popular Culture.”

— The Los Angeles Times

“If Nostradamus were alive today, he’d have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente.”

— New York Post

So there you have it - hardly a nutjob conspiracy theorist blowhard now is he? The price of not heeding his warnings will be far greater than the cost of preparing for the future now. Storable food and gold are two good places to make a start.

Samia · November 13, 2008

In my mind this election already confirmed one of the points of your post, alot of " everyday " people are already talking third party as the two party system is and has always been a joke.

From another forum I spend time at:

"Friends,

Will you please take the time to read this, and if you think it worthwhile, pass it along to your email list, and ask them to read it? Even if they voted, with all good intentions, for Mr. Obama?

I am a student of history. Professionally. I have written 15 books in six languages, and have studied it all my life. I think there is something monumentally large afoot, and I do not believe it is just a banking crisis, or a mortgage crisis, or a credit crisis. Yes these exist, but they are merely single facets on a very large gemstone that is only now coming into a sharper focus.

Something of historic proportions is happening. I can sense it because I know how it feels, smells, what it looks like, and how people react to it. Yes, a perfect storm may be brewing, but there is something happening within our country that has been evolving for about ten - fifteen years. The pace has dramatically quickened in the past two.

We demand and then codify into law the requirement that our banks make massive loans to people we know they can never pay back? Why?

We learn just days ago that the Federal Reserve, which has little or no real oversight by anyone, has “loaned” two trillion dollars (that is $2,000,000,000,000) over the past few months, but will not tell us to whom or why or disclose the terms. That is our money. Yours and mine. And that is three times the 700B we all argued about so strenuously just this past September. Who has this money? Why do they have it? Why are the terms unavailable to us? Who asked for it? Who authorized it? I thought this was a government of “we the people,” who loaned our powers to our elected leaders. Apparently not.

We have spent two or more decades intentionally de-industrializing our economy. Why?

We have intentionally dumbed down our schools, ignored our history, and no longer teach our founding documents, why we are exceptional, and why we are worth preserving. Students by and large cannot write, think critically, read, or articulate. Parents are not revolting, teachers are not picketing, school boards continue to back mediocrity. Why?

We have now established the precedent of protesting every close election (now violently in California over a proposition that is so controversial that it wants marriage to remain between one man and one woman. Did you ever think such a thing possible just a decade ago?). We have corrupted our sacred political process by allowing unelected judges to write laws that radically change our way of life, and then mainstream Marxist groups like ACORN and others to turn our voting system into a banana republic. To what purpose?

Now our mortgage industry is collapsing, housing prices are in free fall, major industries are failing, our banking system is on the verge of collapse, social security is nearly bankrupt, as is medicare and our entire government, our education system is worse than a joke (I teach college and know precisely what I am talking about)–the list is staggering in its length, breadth, and depth. It is potentially 1929 x ten. And we are at war with an enemy we cannot name for fear of offending people of the same religion, who cannot wait to slit the throats of your children if they have the opportunity to do so.

And now we have elected a man no one knows anything about, who has never run so much as a Dairy Queen, let alone a town as big as Wasilla, Alaska. All of his associations and alliances are with real radicals in their chosen fields of employment, and everything we learn about him, drip by drip, is unsettling if not downright scary (Surely you have heard him speak about his idea to create and fund a mandatory civilian defense force stronger than our military for use inside our borders? No? Oh of course. The media would never play that for you over and over and then demand he answer it. Sarah Palin’s pregnant daughter and $150,000 wardrobe is more imporant.)

Mr. Obama’s winning platform can be boiled down to one word: change.

Why?

I have never been so afraid for my country and for my children as I am now.

This man campaigned on bringing people together, something he has never, ever done in his professional life. In my assessment, Obama will divide us along philosophical lines, push us apart, and then try to realign the pieces into a new and different power structure. Change is indeed coming. And when it comes, you will never see the same nation again.

And that is only the beginning.

And I thought I would never be able to experience what the ordinary, moral German felt in the mid-1930s. In those times, the savior was a former smooth-talking rabble-rouser from the streets, about whom the average German knew next to nothing. What they did know was that he was associated with groups that shouted, shoved, and pushed around people with whom they disagreed; he edged his way onto the political stage through great oratory and promises. Economic times were tough, people were losing jobs, and he was a great speaker. And he smiled and waved a lot. And people, even newspapers, were afraid to speak out for fear that his “brown shirts” would bully them into submission. And then, he was duly elected to office, a full-throttled economic crisis at hand [the Great Depression]. Slowly but surely he seized the controls of government power, department by department, person by person, bureaucracy by bureaucracy. The kids joined a Youth Movement in his name, where they were taught what to think. How did he get the people on his side? He did it promising jobs to the jobless, money to the moneyless, and goodies for the military-industrial complex. He did it by indoctrinating the children, advocating gun control, health care for all, better wages, better jobs, and promising to re-instill pride once again in the country, across Europe, and across the world.

He did it with a compliant media–did you know that? And he did this all in the name of justice and . . . change. And the people surely got what they voted for.

(Look it up if you think I am exaggerating.)

Read your history books. Many people objected in 1933 and were shouted down, called names, laughed at, and made fun of. When Winston Churchill pointed out the obvious in the late 1930s while seated in the House of Lords in England (he was not yet Prime Minister), he was booed into his seat and called a crazy troublemaker. He was right, though.

Don’t forget that Germany was the most educated, cultured country in Europe. It was full of music, art, museums, hospitals, laboratories, and universities. And in less than six years–a shorter time span than just two terms of the U. S. presidency–it was rounding up its own citizens, killing others, abrogating its laws, turning children against parents, and neighbors against neighbors. All with the best of intentions, of course. The road to Hell is paved with them.

As a practical thinker, one not overly prone to emotional decisions, I have a choice: I can either believe what the objective pieces of evidence tell me (even if they make me cringe with disgust); I can believe what history is shouting to me from across the chasm of seven decades; or I can hope I am wrong by closing my eyes, having another latte, and ignoring what is transpiring around me.

Some people scoff at me, others laugh, or think I am foolish, naive, or both. Perhaps I am. But I have never been afraid to look people in the eye and tell them exactly what I believe–and why I believe it.

I pray I am wrong. I do not think I am.

Best regards

tps"

suchandra · November 16, 2008

Looks like our leaders are taking care and things wont fall apart.

The Washington Post

11:41 PM EST November 15, 2008

President George W. Bush, right, listens to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson during a session at the G20 emergency meeting on Saturday.

Shake-up ahead in world financial structure

World leaders holding an emergency meeting to combat the economic crisis agreed Saturday to a far-reaching action plan that, over the next 4 1/2 months, would begin to reshape international financial institutions and reform worldwide regulatory and accounting rules.

The leaders' 11-page statement spoke of broad principles, leaving the details to be worked out by lower-level aides before another summit meeting in April, after Barack Obama assumes the presidency. But the gathering in Washington of the nearly two dozen nations - from every region of the world - reflected the new balance of power emerging in the aftermath of a financial crisis that has devastated even well-run economies, a wrenching process that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has dubbed "the birth pangs of this new global order."

Under the plans outlined by the leaders, countries such as China, Brazil and India would gain greater roles and responsibilities as part of a restructuring of the international financial system, while European leaders won a commitment to new regulations and controls on banks, rating agencies and exotic financial securities. The leaders also agreed that a dramatic failure of market oversight in "some advanced countries" was among the root causes of the financial crisis, an implicit rebuke of the United States.

"I'm a free market person," President Bush told reporters after the summit ended, "until you're told that if you don't take decisive measures then it's conceivable that our country could go into a depression greater than the Great Depression."

full article: http://news.mobile.msn.com/en-us/articles.aspx?afid=1&aid=27742573

AncientMariner · November 16, 2008

Washington is Powerless to Stop the Coming Economic Depression

Barbara L. Minton

Natural News

November 14, 2008

The U.S. is in the grip of fear. People are so worried about the collapse of the economy that they’ve stopped going to the mall, and they’re cutting every expense they can think of to save money for the hard times ahead. They’ve even stopped going to Starbucks. Bankers too have pulled their purse strings closed and refused to lend anything to anyone. Investors have been selling their stocks and converting what’s left of their retirement accounts to cash that can be horded in a safe. Even the usually optimistic media now wonders if America is sinking into a depression. Everyone is waiting for Washington to do something to end the crisis and get the country back on track. But the truth is that even with its new administration, Washington is no more able to save the U.S. from depression now than it was in the 1930’s.

Today’s Americans have lived through unprecedented good times

Most Americans alive today have never witnessed a depression. They have lived through an unprecedented period of good times characterized by a predominance of peace, economic expansion and easy credit. Sure there were a few recessions along the way, but the general growth trend remained intact. People felt confident that this trend would continue, with each generation envisioning an even better future for its children.

People have come to think of wealth as ever-expanding. They have seen each year on the job entitling them to a raise, and the purchase of a house entitling them to capital gains. They have eschewed “safe” investments like certificates of deposit and government bonds, believing investment in stocks could pave the way to an early and cushy retirement. For many years Americans have contemplated their future with complacency. It’s been a great time to be alive, but good times always come to an end.

What is an economic depression?

A depression is a severe downturn in economic activity that lasts for several years. It is a period during which the economy fails to grow at all and actually shrinks. The last depression, named The Great Depression, began in 1929 and lasted ten years. Several years during this period experienced huge economic shrinkage:

1930 -8.6%

1931 -6.4%

1932 -13%

1933 -1.3%

The unemployment rate during this time rose to 25%, and wages for those who still had jobs fell 42%. Total U.S. economic output fell from $103 billion to $55 billion and world trade sank 65% as measured in dollars. For many people during this period it was not a question of whether they could afford the latest styles for their children. It was a question of whether they were able to provide their families with a few potatoes to eat.

Like the coming depression of today, the Great Depression followed a period of monetary expansion and easy credit that sparked a real estate boom. Just like today, many people moved into mansions and bought stocks believing that the market had no way to go but up. During the period from October, 1929 to July, 1932 the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from about 375 to 48, a decline of 89%. The Dow did not regain the levels seen in 1929 until 1954, and that was only as a result of World War II. Without the war, the downturn would have lasted longer.

Why did it get so bad? Many people think that the monetary policies of the Hoover administration were to blame. Instead of pumping money into the economy and increasing the money supply, the Federal Reserve allowed the money supply to fall by 30%. The “New Deal” period created many government programs geared to ending the Depression, but unemployment remained in the double-digits until 1941, when the outbreak of World War II created defense-related jobs.

Today it is believed that another depression of this magnitude cannot happen because those in charge of monetary policy paid attention to the lessons learned from the Great Depression. People believe that laws and government agencies exist to prevent that type of cataclysmic economic pain from happening again. But the fact is that Washington cannot save the world from the coming depression, and here’s why:

The debt crisis is too big to be controlled by the U.S. government

Right now the government owes its creditors $52 trillion in interest-bearing debts. Based on estimates from the U.S. Government Accountability Office, there is another $60 trillion in contingency debts and obligations such as Social Security, Medicare and guaranteed pensions. Add to that $596 trillion (more than half a quadrillion) that represents the total value of U.S. debts and derivatives placed worldwide.

These are the numbers that are on the table as of now. They don’t include the increasing line-up of companies doomed to fail, such as General Motors and Ford or the increasing need for handouts to companies already on the list of the “too large to fail”, such as AIG. As times get harder for all Americans, more and more companies will begin to fail and look to the government to save them. The precedent has been set. The list also does not include the mortgages that will implode when the second leg of house price declines kicks in following increased job loss. The figures also don’t include government handouts to those whose families are hungry because the parents are unemployed.

Now, consider that even after the additions to the ever lengthening list of pledged government bailouts in recent months, the total amount of rescue money announced in the U.S. so far is $2.7 trillion, a huge sum but miniscule in comparison to the massive debt that needs to be accounted for.

Yet the mantra still exists that Washington can save us from another Great Depression because they won’t repeat history and make the mistakes that were made in the 1930’s. Americans continue to think that Great Depression Part II will not come to pass. It’s time for Americans to start adding up the numbers and drawing some conclusions.

Washington is powerless to raise the kind of money needed without borrowing

The U.S. economy is like a ship that has struck an iceberg and is taking on water. With the economy sinking, Washington is unable to fund the bailouts and reign in the debt with higher taxes. Higher taxes would crimp even more the amount of money available to be spent by consumers to keep the economy propped up. And as more and more people lose their jobs, the tax base gets smaller and smaller.

Many people think it is no problem for Washington to get its hands on money since it owns the printing presses. This would be the easiest solution to the problem - print up huge amounts of money and cause hyperinflation. That would solve everything. Salaries would increase and therefore taxes would increase. GDP would expand in dollar terms and the debt would begin to seem small since it would have been conceived in “old dollars”, and the “new dollars” would be hyperinflated. But this won’t work because a huge amount of U.S. debt is held by foreign creditors who have insisted on stability for their investments. There is no way they would stand for the U.S. launching a mode of hyperinflation because it would drastically decrease their value of their holdings. Right now these foreign debt holders are the country’s benefactors. Without them, American is sunk. They are calling the shots and America is scrambling to keep them happy.

There is nothing for the government to do but go out into the world with its hat in its hands and try to borrow more money. In fact, this has already started with the borrowing of $550 trillion dollars in the fourth quarter of this year, more than the entire deficit of fiscal year 2008. According to Goldman Sachs, the immediate needs of the Treasury will be a whopping $2 trillion to finance the bailouts, the existing deficit, and the next refunding.

This huge refunding of the federal deficit will result in an avalanche of new Treasury securities that have to be sold to someone. In order to beat the bushes for buyers in these skittish times, the Treasury will have to increase the interest rates offered on these securities, adding even more fuel to the debt fire.

Americans realize they have too little savings and too much debt

The reason given to Congress as need for speedy approval of the bailout was that without it, no one would be able to get a loan. The specter of the masses with their credit cards planted firmly on their hips was a scary thought to the Secretary of the Treasury and the Fed Chairman.

Washington needs consumers to borrow more, spend more, and save less. But consumers are doing just the opposite. Recent sales figures point to a collapse in retail sales.

Washington is pushing bankers to lend, but they won’t do it. It’s as though everyone has been slapped in the face with cold water. As a result, the economy is left to fall on its face. It is this coming together of debt and deflation that makes a depression inevitable. It’s what happened in the 1930’s and it’s what is happening now.

Debt and deflation produce a powerful downward spiral

The downward spiral is across many areas and will inevitably encompass most of American life. Consumers and businesses slash spending and lay off workers, leading to fewer consumers with money to spend at the businesses, resulting in the need to lay off more workers and so on. Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures bring on selling of more real estate, driving the prices lower and lower. These falling prices then bring on more mortgage defaults. Fear of bankruptcy forces selling of stocks in companies, and the selling of stocks brings on more bankruptcies. It is the inevitable unwinding of the good times that lasted for 30 years. It will take awhile for all this unwinding to play itself out. The unwinding of the Great Depression took 10 years and the debt overhang was nothing like it is today.

Source for facts about the Great Depression:

Kimberly Amadeo, “What is a Depression?”, About.com US Economy.

suchandra · November 16, 2008

Debt and deflation produce a powerful downward spiral

The downward spiral is across many areas and will inevitably encompass most of American life. Consumers and businesses slash spending and lay off workers, leading to fewer consumers with money to spend at the businesses, resulting in the need to lay off more workers and so on. Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures bring on selling of more real estate, driving the prices lower and lower. These falling prices then bring on more mortgage defaults. Fear of bankruptcy forces selling of stocks in companies, and the selling of stocks brings on more bankruptcies. It is the inevitable unwinding of the good times that lasted for 30 years. It will take awhile for all this unwinding to play itself out. The unwinding of the Great Depression took 10 years and the debt overhang was nothing like it is today.

Source for facts about the Great Depression:

Kimberly Amadeo, “What is a Depression?”, About.com US Economy.

It should be clear that when our politicians "surrendered" to globalization and allowed all the products to be imported from China, that the cash flow would also move to this region of world.

Economic View: The world's authorities must recognise the eastward shift in financial power

'Will people really buy a new car just because they're paying less tax'

<author>Hamish McRae</author>

Sunday, 16 November 2008

If you want one measure of the shift in global power, consider this: all the economic growth that will take place next year is forecast to come from the emerging economies, not from the present developed world. This point hangs over the Group of 20 meeting in Washington this weekend, a group that includes the main developing countries as well as the old developed ones. If you want growth, you won't find it here.

The economic background to the meeting is provided in the new International Monetary Fund forecasts for the world economy. The alarming thing is not that it is forecasting the main economies will shrink next year – most of us knew that was on the cards – but rather the scale and swiftness of the downgrade. The previous numbers were done in October, so in just a month the IMF has shifted from expecting slow growth for the major economies next year to actual contraction. The main figures are shown in the graph and for me two other points stand out: the speed of the collapse in growth and the burden now on the big emerging economies to keep the world economy moving next year.

What is happening is twofold. There is the cyclical downturn that has so expanded the lexicon of normal speech. Everyone now seems to be familiar with economic terms such as the inter-bank rate, sub-prime, toxic debt, negative equity and so on. It is only two years since someone patiently explained to me what a collateralised debt obligation was and told me that I should worry about CDOs, not hedge funds. And there is the debate about the shape of the downturn: will it be a deep "V" or a shallow "U" and so on. At any rate, that is all the stuff of the cycle.

But there is also the structural change and that is the shift to the emerging world. The cycle speeds up the structural shift. Back in the early 1990s, when the developed world experienced its last recession, the Chinese and Indian economies were tiny relative to the developed world. So the fact that China in particular was growing more swiftly than Europe or North America did not really change the power balance much. Now it alters the balance radically. This year, in all probability, China has overtaken Germany to become the world's third-largest economy; if not this year, certainly next.

So the debate that is starting in Washington, and will continue probably for the next year or so, is partly about efforts to jack up the economy now but also about how to rethink global economic management to run things better next time. Part of that will inevitably mean giving the fast-growing nations a greater say in what should be done.

As far as the next few months are concerned, this issue will be what is the most effective way to rekindle growth. Low official interest rates help and we will doubtless get lower ones yet in the UK and the eurozone. But they are already so low in the US that further cuts would not make much difference – and that leads to a further concern. Yes, the Bank of England can cut rates further, but if money is not available then there is not much point in doing so.

As far as fiscal policy is concerned, some sort of boost will happen in most economies, but there are obvious questions to ask about the wisdom of this. For example, can it really be right for the UK Government to be borrowing £100bn a year, or whatever number Alistair Darling proposes for 2009-10 in next week's pre-Budget report? And there is an even more alarming possibility – that all this additional borrowing may not be very effective.

Will people really rush out and buy a new car just because they are paying a few hundred pounds less in tax? They might be wiser to pay off their credit card bills instead. Japan's experience of running a huge fiscal deficit in the 1990s is discouraging. The country managed to postpone recession for about five years, but when it came in the late 1990s, it was a serious one. And Japan's ageing population is now saddled with the largest debts of any major developed country.

Fortunately, economies left to themselves are usually self-healing and there is therefore a reasonable hope that growth will resume in 2010. The main duty of the policy-makers is not to make matters worse. As growth does resume, however, the world will be different from the past five years. There will be obvious differences in that banks will be very cautious in their lending and companies will make sure they are bullet-proof in their finances.

Beyond this, the shift of power to Asia will mean that there will be reforms of the system itself. One idea being discussed is for China and Japan, both of which have huge reserves, to increase the funds available to the IMF, so that the IMF has more firepower to help countries in financial distress. But in the medium term, there is the question of how the central Washington-based institutions need to change their voting procedures, their management structures, their core mission and so on.

It is a huge subject and needs reflection rather than knee-jerk changes, but the bottom line is that the IMF and World Bank will have to reflect the reality of economic power now, rather than economic power a generation ago. On present trends, China overtakes the US as the world's largest economy in about 20 years' time, maybe 25, and the IMF and World Bank will have to take that on board.

Meanwhile there is one really important issue. This is how in trying to reflate the world economy we avoid making the mistakes of the past: how we avoid, for example, creating another credit bubble; or how we avoid the US being so dependent on Asian savings. There will always be some sort of economic cycle. We are not clever enough to avoid that. But we ought to be able to mitigate its most serious effects, both on the downward swing into which we are now heading, and then on the upward movement that will come, let's hope, in 2010. Memo to the world's monetary authorities: could do better.

Are we watching the last hurrah for glitzy philanthropy?

There have been so many casualties of the credit crunch that the impact on the charitable community has slipped by unnoticed. Charities that rely on endowments may be worse hit by the fall in asset prices than commercial companies. Some of the big US foundations, such as those funded by Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett, may be fine, but there will be others that are in trouble.

For example, it seems that some US universities have lost one-third of their endowment, while some providers of scholarships in Britain are having to withdraw offers as they are unable to fund them. There may be a particular problem for charities that have put money into less conventional investments, including hedge funds, but actually the pressure is pretty universal.

In the UK the loss of dividend income from the banks is particularly serious, because while foundations may be able to look through capital losses and assume that markets will eventually recover, they can't manage without dividend income if they are to maintain their present level of disbursements.

There is a further issue. Leave aside what is happening to existing endowments and ask what will happen to philanthropy generally. Will the present boom continue? A book will be published this month called Philanthrocapitalism, by Matthew Bishop of The Economist and Michael Green, a Department for International Development official writing in a personal capacity. You can catch its big idea from the sub-title: "How the rich can save the world and why we should let them".

The thesis is that very rich people can mobilise resources – not just money but skills and connections – more effectively than governments. Bill Gates' efforts to tackle malaria are a good example of this drive to fix a problem where governments and international agencies have failed. The authors argue that "a web of wealthy motivated donors has set out to change the world".

That web includes those who have created fortunes but also a supporting cast of rock and film stars (Bono and Angelina Jolie) and former politicians (Bill Clinton and Tony Blair). Though the financial resources may be small (in the US 1.67 per cent of GDP is given to charities and in the UK 0.73 per cent), the glitz gives big donors clout.

But it raises many questions. Some will worry if a few famous people should have such power. Those who welcome the phenomenon – as I do – can't help worrying that we may be seeing some high point in philanthropy and that tougher times (and higher taxes) will choke its growth. If we are moving towards an era of big government, that may leave less room for the "social investors" that Bishop and Green rightly celebrate.

AncientMariner · November 16, 2008

Yep. It will be interesting if the NWO tries to go after China. It would be suicidal but I have heard it speculated that Obama is planning on attacking Pakhistan to try to get to China because China get most of its oil from Pakhistan. Have also heard that America is too broke to do anything like that so who knows.