Fwd: Wrong Makara Sankranti leads to Wrong rainfall prognosis

[Guest guest]

hinducivilization , " aareni " <aareni wrote:

 

 

I am posting here extracts from a recent technical paper I have

prepared

titled

 

 

" MONSOON RAINFALL CYCLES AS DEPICTED IN ANCIENT SANSKRIT LITERATURE "

 

R N Iyengar

 

-----

 

Introduction

The season that brings rainfall to large parts of the country, now

called the monsoon, has left its imprint in all types of literature

starting from the Rgveda. Vedic literature describes figuratively

the evaporation-rainfall cycle (Rgveda: 1.164.51), knows the sun

as the cause of rainfall. It even has a hymn dedicated to the frogs

who

sound in chorus at the start of the rains, much like the students

learning the Veda. While a bounteous monsoon kept the people happy

its

vagaries were dreaded. Stories of droughts and failure rainfall were

quite common in the legends particularly when people were said to have

shifted their location. One such twelve year long drought was the

reason

for Bhadrabaahu and his followers to emigrate from Bihar to distant

Karnataka in 3rd Cent BCE. Failure of rainfall for twelve years might

be

an exaggeration, but people should have been as eager as now to have a

reliable forecast on what they could expect from the clouds. The most

significant feature of the monsoon is its annual recurrence and the

year

to year variation in the amount of rainfall, called inter annual

variability (IAV). At present IAV is characterized by fixing a normal

(time average) and expressing the yearly rainfall in terms of the

percentage variation about this long term normal. It is now well

known

that the variation comprises of oscillatory patterns around 2-3, 5-7,

11, 18-19 and 60 years........

..... It is common among farmers and villagers to talk of the season

being similar to the one a few years back. They intuitively recognize

IAV in terms of similarity or lack of it, as compared with some past

year fresh in their memory. This would be clearly due to the influence

rainfall has on their personal lives. ...........

 

Venus Appearance Cycle

 

Kautilya's Arthashaastra............ describes under the chapter on

agriculture (II.24) how to measure rainfall and also gives the amount

of

rainfall (presumably some kind of averages) in the important provinces

of his kingdom. Since rainfall figures were collected by empowered

officials and used by the decision makers, Kautilya's methods are

expected to be rational. Quite intriguingly he mentions that rainfall

for the season depends on the visibility of Venus

(tasyopalabdhih……shukrodayaastamayacaarebhyah……s\

hukraadvrishtiriti||). At first reading this appears to be an

astrological prescription, based more on belief rather than empirical

observations. However on closer scrutiny this statement is seen to

reflect the near three year oscillation in monsoon rainfall. Kautilya

expects good rainfall if Venus were to be sighted in the eastern sky

during the monsoon season. The season being of four months as per the

text, this precursor for making a forecast should refer to the first

month of the season. Now, Venus as a morning object is visible for

about

eight months and becomes invisible for about 50 days, before rising in

the evening in the western sky. The synodic period of Venus is nearly

584 days. Hence once seen in the early part of the monsoon season

Venus

will not be seen in the subsequent season which is only one year away.

Also, when seen next after its cycle of 584 days, the season will not

be

rainy. But interestingly after one more round that is after nearly

three

years Venus would be visible in the beginning of the monsoon season.

Thus, the correlation prescribed by Kautilya is based on an uncanny

observation of occurrence of two contemporaneous natural events with

nearly the same period. Since any such cyclic trend is not perfectly

periodic, the correlation will drift over time with no unique

practical

implication. This could be the reason for development of longer cycles

for predictive purposes..........

 

Five Year Cycle

 

In the Vedic period the country followed a luni-solar

calendar............................

 

 

 

Seven Year Cycle

 

Among the available Sanskrit books on agriculture, Krshiparaashara

occupies an important place.................

 

 

 

Eighteen Year Cycle

 

Relation of this cycle with rainfall is through prescribing conditions

for sowing of seeds depending on the position of the imaginary dark

planet Raahu among the 27-stars......................

 

 

 

Intra-annual Variability OR Within Year Prognosis

 

Starting from the Vedic period, it was well known that the rainy

season

was dependent on the sun and not on the moon. Since the more ancient

time keeping was based on the moon, the annual rainfall cycle would

have

necessitated synchronization of the solar and the lunar year. The

Sanskrit word varsha means rainfall but denotes year also. Similarly

another popular word for year is abda, literally giver-of-water. Thus,

naming the months and the seasons with respect to the sun in addition

to

the already existing lunar months was introduced. This is quite

evident

in the Yajurvedic texts which name the twelve solar months as Madhu,

Maadhava, Shukra, Shuci, Nabha, Nabhasya, Isha, Urja, Saha, Sahasya,

Tapa, Tapasya. The word Madhu-maasa stands for the spring month in

popular parlance even now, except that this is neither same as the

lunar

month Chaitra, nor the solar month Mesha (Chittirai in Tamil), of the

present day religious almanacs. Lack of synchronization of the present

Hindu solar calendar with the seasons is due to wrong interpretation

of

ancient texts. These were appropriate for their times but need

correction due to precession of equinoxes. In addition, the relation

between the solar zodiac defined with respect to the equinoctial point

and the fixed sidereal zodiac (naksatra) of the Vedic period was

misunderstood by some influential authors on astrology. Thus we see

the

Vedic solar Uttaraayana or the winter solstice day being equated with

makara sankraanti which in turn is wrongly shown to be occurring on or

about 14th January, where as the correct date should have been around

22nd December, the shortest day in the civil calendar. Hence, to map

ancient seasonal information as given in Sanskrit texts to modern

times,

correction of about three weeks is necessary. This is essential to

appreciate the with-in-year rainfall pattern as described by ancient

authors in terms of the solar nakshatra notation, which got

formulated,

when Sun at vernal equinox (0o longitude) was stationed near the

visible

star Ashvini (Beta-Arities?), in 2nd Cent CE. Presently the equinox in

the civil calendar is on March 22nd and hence if we talk of

ashvini-rain, as per ancient practice, it has to be during the dates

21st March-3rd April and not 13th April-26th April as shown in the

traditional almanacs. Varaaha-mihira was very well aware of the

connection between the monsoon season and the position of the sun. In

chapter 28, verse 20 of his Brhat-samhitaa, rains are said to be

certain

when sun passes through the asterism aardra. If the vulgate almanacs

are

followed this corresponds to 22nd June-5th July, where as the

observational results of the ancients correspond presently with 30th

May-11th June. This is well known to be the period of onset of

southwest

monsoon over large parts of the subcontinent. Such considerations

become

particularly important when villagers use their folkloric knowledge of

proverbs such as if it does not rain in Hasta, one's mother will

also not give food. This should be taken to correspond to 4th-16th

September, whereas the pancangas mark this for 27th

Sept-10th October. The risk associated with wrong identification of

sun's position among the naksatra increases when seed sowing

operations are undertaken based on ancient beliefs. For example, in

some

areas of Karnataka farmers believe that sowing during punarvasu rains

leads to a rich harvest of groundnuts. This period should be taken as

12-25 June and not 6-9 July as shown incorrectly in the

pancaangas................

 

Discussion..................

 

Summary and Conclusion

 

Inter annual variability patterns of monsoon rainfall as described in

ancient Indian texts are presented in this paper. It is interesting to

note that the dominant periods were taken to be 3,5,7,18 and 60 years.

Time series analysis of actual seasonal rainfall data of the past 100

years shows that at very near the above periods the spectrum has

peaks.

It is now known that the ENSO oscillations at 2-3 year period account

maximally the variability. The Venus visibility portent of Paraashara,

stated also in the Arthashaastra appears to be a proxy for the ENSO

cycle.

 

For understanding the within year variability of rainfall, ancient

texts

have to be interpreted after making correction for the precession of

equinoxes. Blind following of the texts, in letter but not in spirit,

has lead to wrong marking of the date of winter solstice as 14th

January

in the pancaangas. Hence the traditional dates of rainfall expectation

depending on sun's nakshatra as given in the pancaangas are to be

advanced by about three weeks for practical use in agricultural

operations. .............

 

It is known for quite some time that astronomically wrong information,

particularly of the solstices and equinoxes, has crept into the

pancaangas after printing became popular. This calls for serious

discussion and introspection on the part of religious leaders with

scientific temperament to reform the traditional pancaangas, so that

the

culturally important equinoxes and solstices are observed on the

naturally correct dates of the civil calendar.

 

-------------

 

--- End forwarded message ---

[Guest guest]

hinducivilization , "aareni" <aareni wrote:

I am posting here extracts from a recent technical paper I have prepared titled

"MONSOON RAINFALL CYCLES AS DEPICTED IN ANCIENT SANSKRIT LITERATURE"

R N Iyengar

-----

IntroductionThe season that brings rainfall to large parts of the country, now called the monsoon, has left its imprint in all types of literature starting from the Rgveda. Vedic literature describes figuratively the evaporation-rainfall cycle (Rgveda: 1.164.51), knows the sun as the cause of rainfall. It even has a hymn dedicated to the frogs who sound in chorus at the start of the rains, much like the students learning the Veda. While a bounteous monsoon kept the people happy its vagaries were dreaded. Stories of droughts and failure rainfall were quite common in the legends particularly when people were said to have shifted their location. One such twelve year long drought was the reason for Bhadrabaahu and his followers to emigrate from Bihar to distant Karnataka in 3rd Cent BCE. Failure of rainfall for twelve years might be an exaggeration, but people should have been as eager as now to have a reliable forecast on what they could expect from the clouds. The most significant feature of the monsoon is its annual recurrence and the year to year variation in the amount of rainfall, called inter annual variability (IAV). At present IAV is characterized by fixing a normal (time average) and expressing the yearly rainfall in terms of the percentage variation about this long term normal. It is now well known that the variation comprises of oscillatory patterns around 2-3, 5-7, 11, 18-19 and 60 years............ It is common among farmers and villagers to talk of the season being similar to the one a few years back. They intuitively recognize IAV in terms of similarity or lack of it, as compared with some past year fresh in their memory. This would be clearly due to the influence rainfall has on their personal lives. ...........

Venus Appearance Cycle

Kautilya's Arthashaastra............ describes under the chapter on agriculture (II.24) how to measure rainfall and also gives the amount of rainfall (presumably some kind of averages) in the important provinces of his kingdom. Since rainfall figures were collected by empowered officials and used by the decision makers, Kautilya's methods are expected to be rational. Quite intriguingly he mentions that rainfall for the season depends on the visibility of Venus (tasyopalabdhih??shukrodayaastamayacaarebhyah??shukraadvrishtiriti||). At first reading this appears to be an astrological prescription, based more on belief rather than empirical observations. However on closer scrutiny this statement is seen to reflect the near three year oscillation in monsoon rainfall. Kautilya expects good rainfall if Venus were to be sighted in the eastern sky during the monsoon season. The season being of four months as per the text, this precursor for making a forecast should refer to the first month of the season. Now, Venus as a morning object is visible for about eight months and becomes invisible for about 50 days, before rising in the evening in the western sky. The synodic period of Venus is nearly 584 days. Hence once seen in the early part of the monsoon season Venus will not be seen in the subsequent season which is only one year away. Also, when seen next after its cycle of 584 days, the season will not be rainy. But interestingly after one more round that is after nearly three years Venus would be visible in the beginning of the monsoon season. Thus, the correlation prescribed by Kautilya is based on an uncanny observation of occurrence of two contemporaneous natural events with nearly the same period. Since any such cyclic trend is not perfectly periodic, the correlation will drift over time with no unique practical implication. This could be the reason for development of longer cycles for predictive purposes..........

Five Year Cycle

In the Vedic period the country followed a luni-solar calendar............................

 

Seven Year Cycle

Among the available Sanskrit books on agriculture, Krshiparaashara occupies an important place.................

 

Eighteen Year Cycle

Relation of this cycle with rainfall is through prescribing conditions for sowing of seeds depending on the position of the imaginary dark planet Raahu among the 27-stars......................

 

Intra-annual Variability OR Within Year Prognosis

Starting from the Vedic period, it was well known that the rainy season was dependent on the sun and not on the moon. Since the more ancient time keeping was based on the moon, the annual rainfall cycle would have necessitated synchronization of the solar and the lunar year. The Sanskrit word varsha means rainfall but denotes year also. Similarly another popular word for year is abda, literally giver-of-water. Thus, naming the months and the seasons with respect to the sun in addition to the already existing lunar months was introduced. This is quite evident in the Yajurvedic texts which name the twelve solar months as Madhu, Maadhava, Shukra, Shuci, Nabha, Nabhasya, Isha, Urja, Saha, Sahasya, Tapa, Tapasya. The word Madhu-maasa stands for the spring month in popular parlance even now, except that this is neither same as the lunar month Chaitra, nor the solar month Mesha (Chittirai in Tamil), of the present day religious almanacs. Lack of synchronization of the present Hindu solar calendar with the seasons is due to wrong interpretation of ancient texts. These were appropriate for their times but need correction due to precession of equinoxes. In addition, the relation between the solar zodiac defined with respect to the equinoctial point and the fixed sidereal zodiac (naksatra) of the Vedic period was misunderstood by some influential authors on astrology. Thus we see the Vedic solar Uttaraayana or the winter solstice day being equated with makara sankraanti which in turn is wrongly shown to be occurring on or about 14th January, where as the correct date should have been around 22nd December, the shortest day in the civil calendar. Hence, to map ancient seasonal information as given in Sanskrit texts to modern times, correction of about three weeks is necessary. This is essential to appreciate the with-in-year rainfall pattern as described by ancient authors in terms of the solar nakshatra notation, which got formulated, when Sun at vernal equinox (0o longitude) was stationed near the visible star Ashvini (Beta-Arities?), in 2nd Cent CE. Presently the equinox in the civil calendar is on March 22nd and hence if we talk of ashvini-rain, as per ancient practice, it has to be during the dates 21st March-3rd April and not 13th April-26th April as shown in the traditional almanacs. Varaaha-mihira was very well aware of the connection between the monsoon season and the position of the sun. In chapter 28, verse 20 of his Brhat-samhitaa, rains are said to be certain when sun passes through the asterism aardra. If the vulgate almanacs are followed this corresponds to 22nd June-5th July, where as the observational results of the ancients correspond presently with 30th May-11th June. This is well known to be the period of onset of southwest monsoon over large parts of the subcontinent. Such considerations become particularly important when villagers use their folkloric knowledge of proverbs such as if it does not rain in Hasta, one's mother will also not give food. This should be taken to correspond to 4th-16th September, whereas the pancangas mark this for 27th Sept-10th October. The risk associated with wrong identification of sun's position among the naksatra increases when seed sowing operations are undertaken based on ancient beliefs. For example, in some areas of Karnataka farmers believe that sowing during punarvasu rains leads to a rich harvest of groundnuts. This period should be taken as 12-25 June and not 6-9 July as shown incorrectly in the pancaangas................

Discussion..................

Summary and Conclusion

Inter annual variability patterns of monsoon rainfall as described in ancient Indian texts are presented in this paper. It is interesting to note that the dominant periods were taken to be 3,5,7,18 and 60 years. Time series analysis of actual seasonal rainfall data of the past 100 years shows that at very near the above periods the spectrum has peaks. It is now known that the ENSO oscillations at 2-3 year period account maximally the variability. The Venus visibility portent of Paraashara, stated also in the Arthashaastra appears to be a proxy for the ENSO cycle.

For understanding the within year variability of rainfall, ancient texts have to be interpreted after making correction for the precession of equinoxes. Blind following of the texts, in letter but not in spirit, has lead to wrong marking of the date of winter solstice as 14th January in the pancaangas. Hence the traditional dates of rainfall expectation depending on sun's nakshatra as given in the pancaangas are to be advanced by about three weeks for practical use in agricultural operations. .............

It is known for quite some time that astronomically wrong information, particularly of the solstices and equinoxes, has crept into the pancaangas after printing became popular. This calls for serious discussion and introspection on the part of religious leaders with scientific temperament to reform the traditional pancaangas, so that the culturally important equinoxes and solstices are observed on the naturally correct dates of the civil calendar.

-------------

--- End forwarded message ---

[Guest guest]

Respected Sreenadha ji,

 

Thanks for the nice post.--- On Sat, 1/17/09, Sreenadh <sreesog wrote:

Sreenadh <sreesog Fwd: Wrong Makara Sankranti leads to Wrong rainfall prognosis Date: Saturday, January 17, 2009, 12:52 PM

 

hinducivilization , "aareni" <aareni wrote:

I am posting here extracts from a recent technical paper I have prepared titled

"MONSOON RAINFALL CYCLES AS DEPICTED IN ANCIENT SANSKRIT LITERATURE"

R N Iyengar

-----

IntroductionThe season that brings rainfall to large parts of the country, now called the monsoon, has left its imprint in all types of literature starting from the Rgveda. Vedic literature describes figuratively the evaporation-rainfall cycle (Rgveda: 1.164.51), knows the sun as the cause of rainfall. It even has a hymn dedicated to the frogs who sound in chorus at the start of the rains, much like the students learning the Veda. While a bounteous monsoon kept the people happy its vagaries were dreaded. Stories of droughts and failure rainfall were quite common in the legends particularly when people were said to have shifted their location. One such twelve year long drought was the reason for Bhadrabaahu and his followers to emigrate from Bihar to distant Karnataka in 3rd Cent BCE. Failure of rainfall for twelve years might be an exaggeration, but people should have been as eager as now to have a reliable forecast on what

they could expect from the clouds. The most significant feature of the monsoon is its annual recurrence and the year to year variation in the amount of rainfall, called inter annual variability (IAV). At present IAV is characterized by fixing a normal (time average) and expressing the yearly rainfall in terms of the percentage variation about this long term normal. It is now well known that the variation comprises of oscillatory patterns around 2-3, 5-7, 11, 18-19 and 60 years............ It is common among farmers and villagers to talk of the season being similar to the one a few years back. They intuitively recognize IAV in terms of similarity or lack of it, as compared with some past year fresh in their memory. This would be clearly due to the influence rainfall has on their personal lives. ...........

Venus Appearance Cycle

Kautilya's Arthashaastra............ describes under the chapter on agriculture (II.24) how to measure rainfall and also gives the amount of rainfall (presumably some kind of averages) in the important provinces of his kingdom. Since rainfall figures were collected by empowered officials and used by the decision makers, Kautilya's methods are expected to be rational. Quite intriguingly he mentions that rainfall for the season depends on the visibility of Venus (tasyopalabdhih??shukrodayaastamayacaarebhyah??shukraadvrishtiriti||). At first reading this appears to be an astrological prescription, based more on belief rather than empirical observations. However on closer scrutiny this statement is seen to reflect the near three year oscillation in monsoon rainfall. Kautilya expects good rainfall if Venus were to be sighted in the eastern sky during the monsoon

season. The season being of four months as per the text, this precursor for making a forecast should refer to the first month of the season. Now, Venus as a morning object is visible for about eight months and becomes invisible for about 50 days, before rising in the evening in the western sky. The synodic period of Venus is nearly 584 days. Hence once seen in the early part of the monsoon season Venus will not be seen in the subsequent season which is only one year away. Also, when seen next after its cycle of 584 days, the season will not be rainy. But interestingly after one more round that is after nearly three years Venus would be visible in the beginning of the monsoon season. Thus, the correlation prescribed by Kautilya is based on an uncanny observation of occurrence of two contemporaneous natural events with nearly the same period. Since any such cyclic trend is not perfectly periodic, the correlation will

drift over time with no unique practical implication. This could be the reason for development of longer cycles for predictive purposes..........

Five Year Cycle

In the Vedic period the country followed a luni-solar calendar............................

 

Seven Year Cycle

Among the available Sanskrit books on agriculture, Krshiparaashara occupies an important place.................

 

Eighteen Year Cycle

Relation of this cycle with rainfall is through prescribing conditions for sowing of seeds depending on the position of the imaginary dark planet Raahu among the 27-stars......................

 

Intra-annual Variability OR Within Year Prognosis

Starting from the Vedic period, it was well known that the rainy season was dependent on the sun and not on the moon. Since the more ancient time keeping was based on the moon, the annual rainfall cycle would have necessitated synchronization of the solar and the lunar year. The Sanskrit word varsha means rainfall but denotes year also. Similarly another popular word for year is abda, literally giver-of-water. Thus, naming the months and the seasons with respect to the sun in addition to the already existing lunar months was introduced. This is quite evident in the Yajurvedic texts which name the twelve solar months as Madhu, Maadhava, Shukra, Shuci, Nabha, Nabhasya, Isha, Urja, Saha, Sahasya, Tapa, Tapasya. The word Madhu-maasa stands for the spring month in popular parlance even now, except that this is neither same as the lunar month Chaitra, nor the solar month Mesha (Chittirai in Tamil), of the present day religious almanacs. Lack of synchronization of the present Hindu solar calendar with the seasons is due to wrong interpretation of ancient texts. These were appropriate for their times but need correction due to precession of equinoxes. In addition, the relation between the solar zodiac defined with respect to the equinoctial point and the fixed sidereal zodiac (naksatra) of the Vedic period was misunderstood by some influential authors on astrology. Thus we see the Vedic solar Uttaraayana or the winter solstice day being equated with makara sankraanti which in turn is wrongly shown to be occurring on or about 14th January, where as the correct

date should have been around 22nd December, the shortest day in the civil calendar. Hence, to map ancient seasonal information as given in Sanskrit texts to modern times, correction of about three weeks is necessary. This is essential to appreciate the with-in-year rainfall pattern as described by ancient authors in terms of the solar nakshatra notation, which got formulated, when Sun at vernal equinox (0o longitude) was stationed near the visible star Ashvini (Beta-Arities?), in 2nd Cent CE. Presently the equinox in the civil calendar is on March 22nd and hence if we talk of ashvini-rain, as per ancient practice, it has to be during the dates 21st March-3rd April and not 13th April-26th April as shown in the traditional almanacs. Varaaha-mihira was very well aware of the connection between the monsoon season and the position of the sun. In

chapter 28, verse 20 of his Brhat-samhitaa, rains are said to be certain when sun passes through the asterism aardra. If the vulgate almanacs are followed this corresponds to 22nd June-5th July, where as the observational results of the ancients correspond presently with 30th May-11th June. This is well known to be the period of onset of southwest monsoon over large parts of the subcontinent. Such considerations become particularly important when villagers use their folkloric knowledge of proverbs such as if it does not rain in Hasta, one's mother will also not give food. This should be taken to correspond to 4th-16th September, whereas the pancangas mark this for 27th Sept-10th October. The risk associated with wrong identification of sun's position among the naksatra increases when seed sowing operations are undertaken

based on ancient beliefs. For example, in some areas of Karnataka farmers believe that sowing during punarvasu rains leads to a rich harvest of groundnuts. This period should be taken as 12-25 June and not 6-9 July as shown incorrectly in the pancaangas................

Discussion..................

Summary and Conclusion

Inter annual variability patterns of monsoon rainfall as described in ancient Indian texts are presented in this paper. It is interesting to note that the dominant periods were taken to be 3,5,7,18 and 60 years. Time series analysis of actual seasonal rainfall data of the past 100 years shows that at very near the above periods the spectrum has peaks. It is now known that the ENSO oscillations at 2-3 year period account maximally the variability. The Venus visibility portent of Paraashara, stated also in the Arthashaastra appears to be a proxy for the ENSO cycle. For understanding the within year variability of rainfall, ancient texts have to be interpreted after making correction for the precession of equinoxes. Blind following of the texts, in letter but not in spirit, has lead to wrong marking of the date of winter solstice as 14th January in the pancaangas. Hence the traditional dates of rainfall expectation depending on sun's nakshatra as given in the pancaangas are to be advanced by about three weeks for practical use in agricultural operations. .............

It is known for quite some time that astronomically wrong information, particularly of the solstices and equinoxes, has crept into the pancaangas after printing became popular. This calls for serious discussion and introspection on the part of religious leaders with scientific temperament to reform the traditional pancaangas, so that the culturally important equinoxes and solstices are observed on the naturally correct dates of the civil calendar.

-------------

--- End forwarded message ---