UK: 12 fold increase in Autism cases.

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While the WHO worries about swine flu and the vaccine, autism is sweeping the

world in an unprecedented fashion - Jagannath.http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/autism-s\

tudy-finds-12fold-rise-in-cases-1692556.html

Autism: study finds 12-fold rise in cases

Number of sufferers may be up to 50 per cent higher, putting pressure on

services

By Jeremy Laurance, Health Editor

Friday, 29 May 2009

The number of children with autism has risen

12-fold in the past 30 years and may be 50 per cent higher than

previously suspected, the most detailed study of the condition yet has

found.

Up to 250,000 children have autism or a related

condition on the autistic spectrum, but have not been diagnosed,

researchers say. They are in addition to the 500,000 children who are

known to be affected.

The authoritative study by Professor Simon

Baron-Cohen and colleagues of the Autism Research Centre at Cambridge

University, published in the British Journal of Psychiatry, sets a new

benchmark for future studies of the prevalence of autism in the UK, and

has grave implications for education and other public services which

are already overstretched. The findings imply that many more young

people may need intensive lifelong support.

But the authors dismissed suggestions that changes in

lifestyle or the environment were behind the rise.. They put it down to

improved awareness and detection, and the inclusion of milder

conditions within the diagnosis.

Autism is a disorder of social functioning which

makes it difficult for sufferers to form relationships and to

communicate with other people. In the 1990s it was recognised that

there was a spectrum of cases from the severely to the mildly affected,

and the diagnosis of Asperger's syndrome was included to cover those at

the milder end.

Autism has become controversial over the last 10

years because of a claimed link with the MMR vaccine, which has since

been discredited. The rise in cases was cited by campaigners as

evidence for the damaging effects of MMR, which was introduced in 1988.

In 2006, researchers from Guy's and St Thomas'

medical school calculated that 1 per cent of the population had a

diagnosis on the autistic spectrum, equivalent to 500,000 children.

That figure has become the gold standard in autism research.

Now Professor Baron-Cohen has revised the figure,

using three separate research methods for increased accuracy on a

population of 20,000 children in Cambridgeshire.

A survey of Cambridge school registers of children

with special educational needs revealed 1 per cent of children

affected. This was confirmed by a questionnaire survey of parents which

uncovered 41 cases. But a subsequent screening test given to the same

parents, designed to detect children with autism, revealed an

additional 11 children who were undiagnosed.

The results showed that, when the undiagnosed cases

were included, one in 64 children had the condition, equivalent to 1.5

per cent of the population. Extrapolating them to the whole population

raised the total number of children affected from 500,000 to 750,000..

For every three cases that are diagnosed, a further two may be

undiagnosed, the researchers concluded.

Professor Baron-Cohen said: "If services are trying

to plan ahead they have to take into account that for every three cases

they know about there may be two more they don't. That is important.

Currently many services are stretched, they are barely managing to keep

up and there are long waits for diagnosis."

He added: "Not everyone may need a diagnosis if they

are already getting good support. But services need to be prepared.

People usually seek a diagnosis when things start to go wrong, for

example when they leave home and are losing the support of parents."

The National Autistic Society said early diagnosis

was essential. Parents often wait years for accurate diagnosis. Mark

Lever, NAS Chief Executive, said: "An accurate figure for the number of

people with autism... Is vital to ensure a sufficient level of services

and appropriate support to meet people's needs."

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