Guest guest Posted June 29, 2009 Report Share Posted June 29, 2009 dear grp India will have a delayed MONSON - 2009 and very Hot Summer was Forecast. done by NGO,........ ..(no public money spent) India Govt Depts did (Forecast) the reverse. See the non govt results are more people oriente and done very long ago. Model Results – Monsoon 2009 20-11-1999 21-11-1998 F-15 In our Fig. series No. 1 to 2 the darker regions over the water are `cold' SST. The lighter shade represents `warm' SST (refer mono-chrome bar below the figures). The SST conditions in the BoB as on 20-11-2008 is alike that of 1998 & 1999. We come to know that the SST in the great part of the IO will be warm from May to July almost as alike 1998 - 1999. This alludes to conditions as described in our model Exp. No. 3. We attempt an Very Long Range Forecast –VLRF dt. 25/11/2008(note- vi). Using the above model, we theorise that (i) an delay in onset of monsoon 2009 for most regions including Kerala (by a day or two) and much delay for Orissa, with a prominent 2 -3 week intermission between pre monsoon showers and regular draft flow slated to early July-09. The general elevation of cloud tops of the SW draft will be low off the coasts of the western ghats causing heavy load shedding and top soil loss. Similar at MV (floods in the S E archipelago nations). Weather modification exercises (June-July) only in and around south and south-west dist. of AP will tend to robustise flow mechanics. The SW and SE drafts (stream flows) of monsoon episode 2009 will experience conjugation, consequent down regulation of driver potential and heavy in-sea load shedding, in the mixing grid of the BoB (860-920E/140-200N, rectangular gray region in Fig.3). In model experiment terms, there will be a relatively cooler and weak draft at O1 of our PB model. The curving of the SW draft along the Krishna-Bahuda boundary region is likely to be indistinct (parabolic gray region –Fig.3). The SE draft (from the Pacific-across MV) will then experience more passive phases and even reverse flow at MV. The monsoon trough line will have an northerly lay, HATG hugging. The NE regions of India will experience near normal schedule in on-set and early withdrawal. Sikkim & Shillong plateaus likely to experience relatively more RF, mud slides, top soil loss than most of other plain-plateau-hill station regions that are 100kms inland from the shore line in the sub-continent. Cherrapunjee is likely to receive more RF than Mawsynram (right shift syndrome in stream flow over north BoB i.e. stream flow will be more towards Bangladesh-Tripura-Mizoram region). No floods in the Deccan. It will relative be more hot and dry than 2007 and 2008. The HATG regions (Ganga-Yamuna plains) will experience more RF in short duration episodes due to northerly lay of the monsoon trough, with intermissions. Western Orissa, central and north Indian plains and ravenous regions will experience longer duration `Loo' episodes than 2007 F-14 and 2008 and less RF. Moisture stress (therefore) positions as a possibility for rain fed agriculture across the Indian sub-continent. Bangladesh likely to experience high floods and even sustained floods. Sri Lanka will have good monsoon. Pakistan likely to experience drought. SST in the south-central BoB is theorised to switch to `cold' from `warm' in mid Aug (10day ±). which will lead to germination of a plethora of systems headed for the region between east Bangladesh and Orissa north of Devi river. These systems will eventually reach Bihar-UP plains via the Terrai. Again the SST in the south-central BoB is likely to switch over to `warm' in Sep.09 abruptly terminating monsoon and triggering convective thunder showers in post monsoon period i.e. shortening of the withdrawal phase period. Overall rain fed bare sustenance agricultural output monsoon episode 09 will be below 2008 level. The NOAA projects a L-Nina episode in the west and central Pacific, yet IM-09 will be weak. Higher administration will erroneously be advising the farmers to use more fertilizer input resulting in enhanced crop wilt/burn. The Hirakud and other dams may do good by releasing water resource (even depleting pen stock) for irrigation from May through to mid July-09. Dammed flood water release should be timed with neap tide periods or else crop loss and cultivation period loss. Trying VLRF since 1998. April – 2009, Addendum 1 - HOT, SUNNY - Super sultry Rajo festival. 2 – Ganjam (the granary of Orissa) will be having early rains and weak monsoon, rice adversely effected during flowering and sap filling stage – moisture stress – Canal irrigation stand by, warranted. 3 – Bihar Flood specially from rivers draining the right bank of the Ganga. 4 – Bengal floods also Floods in north coastal Orissa. 5 – Brahmaputra Floods, continuous, also hill rivers. 6 – NE roads damage, regional agriculture hamper. 7 – 8 – Heavy rain and surface damage in Sikkim, Darjeeling and Meghalaya + mud slides. 9 – Good to heavy snow fall in north Kashmir and more rains east of 880 E. 10 - Pleasant Delhi. USBrahmins/message/9354 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 Respected Sh.Sunil Nair ji, It is known to you that does not show pictures on mail. The pictures are the guide. I shall be glad if you please give the link or send the article on the personal mail where I can read in detail the article and pictures. regards --- On Mon, 6/29/09, sunil nair <astro_tellerkerala wrote: sunil nair <astro_tellerkerala INDIA MONSOON FAILURE Monday, June 29, 2009, 11:33 PM dear grp India will have a delayed MONSON - 2009 and very Hot Summer was Forecast. done by NGO,........ ..(no public money spent) India Govt Depts did (Forecast) the reverse. See the non govt results are more people oriente and done very long ago. Model Results – Monsoon 2009  20-11-1999 21-11-1998 F-15 In our Fig. series No. 1 to 2 the darker regions over the water are `cold' SST. The lighter shade represents `warm' SST (refer mono-chrome bar below the figures). The SST conditions in the BoB as on 20-11-2008 is alike that of 1998 & 1999. We come to know that the SST in the great part of the IO will be warm from May to July almost as alike 1998 - 1999. This alludes to conditions as described in our model Exp. No. 3. We attempt an Very Long Range Forecast –VLRF dt. 25/11/2008(note- vi). Using the above model, we theorise that    (i) an delay in onset of monsoon 2009 for most regions including Kerala (by a day or two) and much delay for Orissa, with a prominent 2 -3 week intermission between pre monsoon showers and regular draft flow slated to early July-09. The general elevation of cloud tops of the SW draft will be low off the coasts of the western ghats causing heavy load shedding and top soil loss. Similar at MV (floods in the S E archipelago nations). Weather modification exercises (June-July) only in and around south and south-west dist. of AP will tend to robustise flow mechanics. The SW and SE drafts (stream flows) of monsoon episode 2009 will experience conjugation, consequent down regulation of driver potential and heavy in-sea load shedding, in the mixing grid of the BoB (860-920E/140-200N, rectangular gray region in Fig.3). In model experiment terms, there will be a relatively cooler and weak draft at O1 of our PB model. The curving of the SW draft along the Krishna-Bahuda boundary region is likely to be indistinct (parabolic gray region –Fig.3). The SE draft (from the Pacific-across MV) will then experience more passive phases and even reverse flow at MV.  The monsoon trough line will have an northerly lay, HATG hugging. The NE regions of India will experience near normal schedule in on-set and early withdrawal. Sikkim & Shillong plateaus likely to experience relatively more RF, mud slides, top soil loss than most of other plain-plateau-hill station regions that are 100kms inland from the shore line in the sub-continent. Cherrapunjee is likely to receive more RF than Mawsynram (right shift syndrome in stream flow over north BoB i.e. stream flow will be more towards Bangladesh-Tripura-Mizoram region). No floods in the Deccan. It will relative be more hot and dry than 2007 and 2008. The HATG regions (Ganga-Yamuna plains) will experience more RF in short duration episodes due to northerly lay of the monsoon trough, with intermissions. Western Orissa, central and north Indian plains and ravenous regions will experience longer duration `Loo' episodes than 2007 F-14 and 2008 and less RF. Moisture stress (therefore) positions as a possibility for rain fed agriculture across the Indian sub-continent. Bangladesh likely to experience high floods and even sustained floods. Sri Lanka will have good monsoon. Pakistan likely to experience drought. SST in the south-central BoB is theorised to switch to `cold' from `warm' in mid Aug (10day ±). which will lead to germination of a plethora of systems headed for the region between east Bangladesh and Orissa north of Devi river. These systems will eventually reach Bihar-UP plains via the Terrai. Again the SST in the south-central BoB is likely to switch over to `warm' in Sep.09 abruptly terminating monsoon and triggering convective thunder showers in post monsoon period i.e. shortening of the withdrawal phase period. Overall rain fed bare sustenance agricultural output monsoon episode 09 will be below 2008 level. The NOAA projects a L-Nina episode in the west and central Pacific, yet IM-09 will be weak. Higher administration will erroneously be advising the farmers to use more fertilizer input resulting in enhanced crop wilt/burn. The Hirakud and other dams may do good by releasing water resource (even depleting pen stock) for irrigation from May through to mid July-09. Dammed flood water release should be timed with neap tide periods or else crop loss and cultivation period loss.  Trying VLRF since 1998.   April – 2009, Addendum  1 - HOT, SUNNY - Super sultry Rajo festival. 2 – Ganjam (the granary of Orissa) will be having early rains and weak monsoon, rice adversely effected during flowering and sap filling stage – moisture stress – Canal irrigation stand by, warranted. 3 – Bihar Flood specially from rivers draining the right bank of the Ganga. 4 – Bengal floods also Floods in north coastal Orissa.   5 – Brahmaputra Floods, continuous, also hill rivers. 6 – NE roads damage, regional agriculture hamper. 7 – 8 – Heavy rain and surface damage in Sikkim, Darjeeling  and Meghalaya + mud slides. 9 – Good to heavy snow fall in north Kashmir and more rains east of 880 E. 10 - Pleasant Delhi. 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