Guest guest Posted July 9, 2004 Report Share Posted July 9, 2004 Note that this is an Intel organization paid to do close point analysis. They say before the election. I think that it will be in mid July. Bert W. Fannin Western Sidereal Astrologer Location and Timing Astrology ltastrology www.ltastrology.com " Where you should be and when you should be there. " _________ - " Strategic Forecasting " <alert <morningintelbrief Friday, July 09, 2004 4:59 AM Morning Intelligence Brief > Stratfor Morning Intelligence Brief -- July 9, 2004 > ...................................................................... > REFER A FRIEND TO STRATFOR > > To refer a friend for a two-week FREE trial of Stratfor's Premium > Geopolitical Intelligence Service, click here (www.stratfor.com/refer). > You can also find a link to the referral form on www.stratfor.com. _________ > Geopolitical Diary: Friday, July 9, 2004 > > U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge delivered an > address July 8, reiterating the continued stream of intelligence pointing to > al Qaeda's interest in carrying out an attack in the United States before > the November election. Ridge cited credible reports that al Qaeda was > planning a large-scale attack " in an effort to disrupt our democratic > process, " but said the alert level would not be raised. > > Though a security briefing in the U.S. Senate before Ridge's public > announcement led to speculation that new information on potential terrorist > threats would be released, Ridge explained that his press conference was, > essentially, part of a regular series of briefings since the Madrid attacks, > designed to keep the American people informed of the progress of homeland > security and any new threat information. > > In essence, Ridge held a briefing not because of anything new, but to > maintain a stream of communication. This shows once again the weakness in > the system: By having regular briefings that point out relatively amorphous > threats, Ridge and the Department of Homeland Security can say they offered > a warning should any terrorist attack occur. In a finger-pointing world, > such precautions are politically expedient. > > While Ridge offered few new insights into the potential for attacks, he did > comment on something that could prove significant. He mentioned the > establishment of a centralized system of information collection, analysis > and distribution -- designed to address one of the core weaknesses of the > U.S. intelligence system. > > Ideally, such a system would link information from the intelligence and law > enforcement communities, bridging gaps in the system and connecting > disparate dots. It remains to be seen, however, if this new system will be > able to overcome the long-standing sense of " knowledge is power " that has > hindered information-sharing not only between agencies, but also within > agencies. > > While Ridge was discussing the same amorphous threats inside the United > States, insurgents in Iraq were making it clear that the threats there are > much more tangible. In a well-coordinated attack, militants detonated a car > bomb inside the gate of the joint U.S.-Iraqi military headquarters in > Samarra, followed immediately by a barrage of some 38 rockets -- destroying > the building and killing five U.S. soldiers, an Iraqi guardsman and at least > three civilians from a nearby neighborhood. ________ > Some 20 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq in the first eight days of > July, nearly half the total number of fatalities in June and a quarter of > those in May. After the major fighting in Iraq in April, the number of > fatalities among U.S. and foreign troops dropped significantly in May and > June. This was due partly to the U.S. military's decision to cut down on > casualties by reducing the presence of U.S. forces, and partly to letting > Iraqi militias patrol certain cities. > > Since the early handover of power, however, the number of fatal attacks is > once again rising, primarily in and around Al Anbar province. Many of these > attacks are carried out or facilitated by fighters from Al Fallujah, where > U.S. forces have ceased to patrol the streets since the April conflicts. As > U.S. forces pull back to their bases, at least one faction of the militants > in Iraq apparently is shifting targets to attack those bases -- and draw > U.S. forces back into the streets. > > ...................................................................... > > © 2004 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved. > http://www.stratfor.com > ...................................................................... > STRATFOR INTELLIGENCE SERVICES > **STRATFOR PREMIUM > Stratfor Premium provides comprehensive global intelligence > including daily analyses, special reports, situation reports, > regional net assessments and Stratfor's sought-after Annual and > Quarterly Forecasts. 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