Technical View of the Markets Over the Weekend.

[Guest guest]

Here I am taking a technical perspective to balance my astrological

findings over the weekend just as a change of perspective.

 

Since this juncture of the market is considered as very ciritical as

it is at point C of fibonacci levels A,B,C,D.

 

A: During Jan at the peak of the bull run the market made a peak of

6288.

(This is Point A).

 

B: Then a deep correction and it went to a low of 4503.

(This is Point B).

 

C: As per the theory of Fibonacci retracements from 4503 it should

retrace back 38.2% as a reaction to the fall.

 

The market very much has risen 38.2% from the low of 4503 to 5228.

(Exact 38.2% would have bought it to 5190 This retracement point is

point C).

 

D: Now the market is at a very critical juncture, if it comes across

any deep correction here it will straight away correct to Point D.

Which is a 21% decline of the current value.

 

Which will take the market back to 4100 - 4150 levels.

 

I am keeping my fingers crossed, it would be interesting to see how

the market unfolds.

 

Thanks,

SP.

[Guest guest]

Since the market has very much made it close to these levels of 4100

to 4150 range its a good time to start accumulating at around these

levels (+-5%) for a short to medium term.

 

Thats how its looking technically.

 

All the best.

SP.

 

l , " sp_kp_student " <thisisme1978

wrote:

>

> Here I am taking a technical perspective to balance my

astrological

> findings over the weekend just as a change of perspective.

>

> Since this juncture of the market is considered as very ciritical

as

> it is at point C of fibonacci levels A,B,C,D.

>

> A: During Jan at the peak of the bull run the market made a peak

of

> 6288.

> (This is Point A).

>

> B: Then a deep correction and it went to a low of 4503.

> (This is Point B).

>

> C: As per the theory of Fibonacci retracements from 4503 it should

> retrace back 38.2% as a reaction to the fall.

>

> The market very much has risen 38.2% from the low of 4503 to 5228.

> (Exact 38.2% would have bought it to 5190 This retracement point

is

> point C).

>

> D: Now the market is at a very critical juncture, if it comes

across

> any deep correction here it will straight away correct to Point D.

> Which is a 21% decline of the current value.

>

> Which will take the market back to 4100 - 4150 levels.

>

> I am keeping my fingers crossed, it would be interesting to see

how

> the market unfolds.

>

> Thanks,

> SP.

>

[Guest guest]

Dear Guruji,

 

Thanks for the advise. Since its so difficult to assess which company

is going to benefit or lose in these economic conditions, so I did

not purchase any shares too.

 

But as a disclaimer I am long nifty futures @ 4130 as they look good

for recovery. And I have hedged the position as well with puts at

4200 strike. This is a safe position as you, Vinit etc are mentioning

of a fall or unsteady ground upto mid July.

 

I plan to liquidate the futures if we see 3900 below on closing basis,

and ride the puts or alternatively ride on futures to 4700 4800

levels within a time frame of upto September, the breakeven for the

delta of cost of hedging is at 4350 levels... Motto is Market goes

either way ride it.

 

Yes the markets have been in overextended oversold position for a

while now, but it never means anything as markets can keep going in

overbought or oversold positions for quite a long time especially in

Bull or Bear phases respectively.

But it seems we have had the relief rally yesterday.(relief or

recovery dont know for now, as you say lets wait and watch)

 

Thanks,

SP

 

 

l , " sunil gondhalekar " <sunilalaka

wrote:

>

> dear SP,

> i think market will be on slippery path upto 18th july 2008.

> we will have to wait and watch upto this period.

> i have stopped purchasing new shares

> tecnically now market in oversold position?

> -sunil gondhalekar

>

>

> On 6/25/08, sp_kp_student <thisisme1978 wrote:

> >

> > Since the market has very much made it close to these levels of

4100

> > to 4150 range its a good time to start accumulating at around

these

> > levels (+-5%) for a short to medium term.

> >

> > Thats how its looking technically.

> >

> > All the best.

> > SP.

> >

> > l <l%40>,

> > " sp_kp_student " <thisisme1978@>

> > wrote:

> > >

> > > Here I am taking a technical perspective to balance my

> > astrological

> > > findings over the weekend just as a change of perspective.

> > >

> > > Since this juncture of the market is considered as very

ciritical

> > as

> > > it is at point C of fibonacci levels A,B,C,D.

> > >

> > > A: During Jan at the peak of the bull run the market made a peak

> > of

> > > 6288.

> > > (This is Point A).

> > >

> > > B: Then a deep correction and it went to a low of 4503.

> > > (This is Point B).

> > >

> > > C: As per the theory of Fibonacci retracements from 4503 it

should

> > > retrace back 38.2% as a reaction to the fall.

> > >

> > > The market very much has risen 38.2% from the low of 4503 to

5228.

> > > (Exact 38.2% would have bought it to 5190 This retracement point

> > is

> > > point C).

> > >

> > > D: Now the market is at a very critical juncture, if it comes

> > across

> > > any deep correction here it will straight away correct to Point

D.

> > > Which is a 21% decline of the current value.

> > >

> > > Which will take the market back to 4100 - 4150 levels.

> > >

> > > I am keeping my fingers crossed, it would be interesting to see

> > how

> > > the market unfolds.

> > >

> > > Thanks,

> > > SP.

> > >

> >

> >

> >

>

>

>

[Guest guest]

Dear Guruji,

 

What a day!.... Prediction of just Amazing perfection it was.

 

Technically till the market stays afloat above 4000 I think it should

be good.

 

Wave wise it has done its job of retracing back from the May highs

exactly.

 

What we will see from here would be new direction. It would be

positive if we stay above 4000 (personally I have faith on the

positive side till its above 3900 on closing basis)

 

I hope Mohit comes forward with some explanation on this phenomenon

he saw, it would be definately helpful for all.

 

And regarding the long short its nothing difficult, these are just

modern versions of satta or gambling (but financially they can be

used to protect your principle investments). These options are in

simple terms very much like horse race or betting, if you believe the

market will go up you buy a call option and pay the bet fee( which is

called call option premium) or like wise if down then put option.

 

Just like betting your risk is limited to the premium paid or (the

bet amount) and the upside is unlimited as much as the market foes in

your direction even though its limited in betting :-).

 

The financial segement guys use these the most to protect/hedge their

investments and keep the downside losses limited. (for eg they buy

shares in x company and may calculate the right price and time period

of a " put option " and pay the premium to safeguard theird primary

buy.)

 

Thanks,

SP.

 

 

 

l , " sunil gondhalekar " <sunilalaka

wrote:

>

> dear SP,

> on 26th market was relief with some saline,but today again black

friday.

> will market bounce back temporary on monday?

> what is the technical view?

> i dont have a knowledge of long and short and not dealing in it.

> thanks

> -sunil gondhalekar

>

>

> On 6/26/08, sp_kp_student <thisisme1978 wrote:

> >

> > Dear Guruji,

> >

> > Thanks for the advise. Since its so difficult to assess which

company

> > is going to benefit or lose in these economic conditions, so I did

> > not purchase any shares too.

> >

> > But as a disclaimer I am long nifty futures @ 4130 as they look

good

> > for recovery. And I have hedged the position as well with puts at

> > 4200 strike. This is a safe position as you, Vinit etc are

mentioning

> > of a fall or unsteady ground upto mid July.

> >

> > I plan to liquidate the futures if we see 3900 below on closing

basis,

> > and ride the puts or alternatively ride on futures to 4700 4800

> > levels within a time frame of upto September, the breakeven for

the

> > delta of cost of hedging is at 4350 levels... Motto is Market goes

> > either way ride it.

> >

> > Yes the markets have been in overextended oversold position for a

> > while now, but it never means anything as markets can keep going

in

> > overbought or oversold positions for quite a long time especially

in

> > Bull or Bear phases respectively.

> > But it seems we have had the relief rally yesterday.(relief or

> > recovery dont know for now, as you say lets wait and watch)

> >

> > Thanks,

> > SP

> >

> > l <l%

40>, " sunil

> > gondhalekar " <sunilalaka@>

> > wrote:

> > >

> > > dear SP,

> > > i think market will be on slippery path upto 18th july 2008.

> > > we will have to wait and watch upto this period.

> > > i have stopped purchasing new shares

> > > tecnically now market in oversold position?

> > > -sunil gondhalekar

> > >

> > >

> > > On 6/25/08, sp_kp_student <thisisme1978@> wrote:

> > > >

> > > > Since the market has very much made it close to these levels

of

> > 4100

> > > > to 4150 range its a good time to start accumulating at around

> > these

> > > > levels (+-5%) for a short to medium term.

> > > >

> > > > Thats how its looking technically.

> > > >

> > > > All the best.

> > > > SP.

> > > >

> > > > l <l%

40><l%

> > 40>,

> > > > " sp_kp_student " <thisisme1978@>

> > > > wrote:

> > > > >

> > > > > Here I am taking a technical perspective to balance my

> > > > astrological

> > > > > findings over the weekend just as a change of perspective.

> > > > >

> > > > > Since this juncture of the market is considered as very

> > ciritical

> > > > as

> > > > > it is at point C of fibonacci levels A,B,C,D.

> > > > >

> > > > > A: During Jan at the peak of the bull run the market made a

peak

> > > > of

> > > > > 6288.

> > > > > (This is Point A).

> > > > >

> > > > > B: Then a deep correction and it went to a low of 4503.

> > > > > (This is Point B).

> > > > >

> > > > > C: As per the theory of Fibonacci retracements from 4503 it

> > should

> > > > > retrace back 38.2% as a reaction to the fall.

> > > > >

> > > > > The market very much has risen 38.2% from the low of 4503 to

> > 5228.

> > > > > (Exact 38.2% would have bought it to 5190 This retracement

point

> > > > is

> > > > > point C).

> > > > >

> > > > > D: Now the market is at a very critical juncture, if it

comes

> > > > across

> > > > > any deep correction here it will straight away correct to

Point

> > D.

> > > > > Which is a 21% decline of the current value.

> > > > >

> > > > > Which will take the market back to 4100 - 4150 levels.

> > > > >

> > > > > I am keeping my fingers crossed, it would be interesting to

see

> > > > how

> > > > > the market unfolds.

> > > > >

> > > > > Thanks,

> > > > > SP.

> > > > >

> > > >

> > > >

> > > >

> > >

> > >

> > >