The new Fed chairman, US monetary policy and the stock market

[Guest guest]

Dear list members, Attached is the chart of Ben Bernanke, the current Chairman of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve ("the Fed"). Bernanke was born December 13, 1953 in August Georgia, USA. He is a macroeconomist by profession. He was previously Chairman of the U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, serving from August 2002 until just prior to his June 2005 swearing-in as CEA chairman. Bernanke was previously the chairman of the Department of Economics at Princeton University. Bernanke married Spanish instructor Anna Friedmann, who taught at Princeton Day School, on May 29, 1978. They have two children. On October 24, 2005, President George W. Bush nominated Bernanke to succeed Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Bernanke was sworn in on February 1, 2006 after the Senate's confirmation by a voice vote on January 31,

2006. His first months as chairman of the Fed were marked by difficulties communicating with the media. Lately, however, he has gotten better marks for his handling of the economy. He is considered to differ in his style from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. Greenspan used to do the so-called "Greenspan two step" by raising interest rates too high and then when demand pressures had been contained he backed down. Bernanke, however, has decided to not raise interest rates while inflation and the economy are increasing modestly. This decision by Bernanke has favourably surprised the market and share prices have risen very fast in recent months. Yesterday, one commentator on Bloomberg suggested he may raise rates again later this year. Bernanke is giving testimony to US Congress today and yesterday. As the following story suggests, he is quite sanguine about the prospects for inflation although he does not rule out raising rates further if the

need arises. Based on the SAMVA USA chart, I have suggested that liquidity conditions in financial markets may turn adverse in coming months. One possible reason for that could be an unexpected tightening of the Fed monetary policy and that it would raise rates when the market least expects it. The next Fed policy meeting is on 20/21 March 2007. This could be an important date for the developments in financial markets to take a turn for the worse. Of course, this is quite speculative, how the karma as seen in the chart manifests, assuming it is the authentic chart. However, such events are still worth watching. For lack of a birth time for Bernanke, I have rectified his chart as 10° Libra rising with exatled L5 Saturn in H1 MEP. This could explain his somber but respected approach. His difficulty in communicating with the media could come from L12

Mercury on H2 MEP, also suggesting his foreign born wife. During the coming few months, transit Rahu is conjunct his natal L10 Moon in H5. This situation could place pressure on him in his career. On March 21, 2007, when the Fed announces its next decision on interest rates - in addition to the afflictions noted involving slow moving planets, * Transit L10 will be opposite from transit L8 Saturn in H1 and under aspect from natal L8 Saturn in H5. * Transit L2 Sun will under aspect from natal L6 Jupiter in H5.* Transit L3 Mercury will be in H8 * Transit L1 Moon will be conjunct ntal Rahu in H10. It is possible that the Federal Reserve Board will announce on this day that it is raising interest rates to quell inflation, which the data will by then show is moving faster than earlier thought. Such a development would surprise the market and push share prices

down. It is at least one possible scenario to explain why share prices would decline in the spring. Other factors include rising geo-political tension, military conflict and sharply rising oil prices (due to the stationary transit aspect of Jupiter on Saturn). Best wishes, Thor Bernanke Pitches Slower Inflation Without Harm to Employment By Craig Torres and Vivien Lou Chen Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke is betting his credibility with investors that inflation can be reduced without much cost to economic growth and employment. The Federal Reserve chairman told the Senate Banking Committee yesterday that his preferred gauge of inflation will fall to or be below 2 percent next year, largely because of lower prices for oil, commodities and rent. The Fed also predicted

unemployment will stay below 5 percent through the end of 2008. Investors, for now, endorse the strategy of relying on market forces, not monetary policy, to contain prices. Stocks and bonds rallied after Bernanke's testimony, the first in a two-day semiannual presentation on the economic outlook. ``The forecast for declining inflation is getting no help from monetary policy or economic slack,'' said Brian Sack, vice president at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington and a former Fed economist. ``It is based entirely on the reversal of special factors that have been boosting inflation.'' Bernanke, 53, was applauded by lawmakers for having addressed a widening gap in incomes in a speech earlier this month, with few challenges to his outlook on the economy. At the Senate committee yesterday, Democrats instead faulted him for insufficient responses on subprime lending and potential changes to the tax code. The Fed chief

testifies before the House Financial Services Committee, chaired by Democratic Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, at 10 a.m. today. His prepared remarks are likely to be identical to his Senate testimony. Rate Threat Fed officials have retained the threat of further interest- rate increases since they paused after 17 boosts over two years, yet their forecasts show they are willing to tolerate slightly elevated inflation for another year. The benchmark federal funds rate is 5.25 percent. The Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, has been at or above the Fed chairman's comfort zone of 1 percent to 2 percent for 33 months. Judging from Bernanke's remarks, investors concluded the central bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged for several months at least. The Fed's forecasts show inflation is expected to slow without a significant rise in unemployment

or slowdown in growth this year or next. ``It is sort of like, `In Ben Bernanke We Trust,''' said Jay Mauro, head of derivatives and interest-rate strategy at State Street Bank & Trust Co. in Boston. ``He has done a very good job of creating an environment of low inflation expectations, without doing much to the fed funds rate.'' Inflation Forecast Fed board governors and district-bank presidents forecast the central bank's preferred price gauge will drop to 1.75 percent to 2 percent in the final quarter of 2008, from 2 percent to 2.25 percent this year. The officials don't release their interest-rate assumptions. The risk inflation won't moderate remains the ``predominant'' concern, Bernanke said yesterday. The Fed board said in its Monetary Policy Report that ``longer-run inflation expectations could deteriorate'' if inflation stays around the level of the past three years. ``They have huge

credibility,'' allowing the Fed to keep rates steady for now, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets, in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``The risk is that inflation stays too high for too long,'' he added. Stanley predicts the Fed will raise rates in the fourth quarter. The Standard and Poor's 500 stock index rose 0.8 percent yesterday to 1455.30. The U.S. 10-year note rose 9/16, pushing the yield down 7 basis points to 4.74 percent. Markets `Happy' ``The Fed is pretty much on hold,'' said Robert Brusca, former chief of the New York Fed's international financial markets division who now runs his own economics firm, Fact & Opinion Economics, in New York. ``The markets seem to be pretty happy with that outcome.'' Fed officials estimated the economy will expand 2.5 percent to 3 percent this year. For 2008, Fed officials expect growth of 2.75 percent to 3 percent. They expect

unemployment to average 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent in the fourth quarter and in the last three months of 2008. The jobless rate was 4.6 percent last month, close to a five-year low. Bernanke gave an upbeat picture of the economy, saying consumer spending has been the ``mainstay'' of growth. The worst housing slump in more than a decade won't have a significant effect on other parts of the economy, he said. Employment `Tight' Bernanke said a tight labor market is an ``important'' inflation risk because companies could pass higher compensation costs through to prices. That could add to inflation, ``effectively nullifying the purchasing power of at least some portion of the increase in labor compensation.'' ``The rate of resource utilization is high, as can be seen in rates of capacity utilization above their long-term average and, most evidently, in the tightness of the labor market,'' Bernanke said. Capacity

utilization, the proportion of factories in use, slipped to 81.7 percent last month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Fed releases the figure at 9:15 a.m. in Washington. The gauge reached a six-year high in July and August. To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Torres in Washington; Last Updated: February 15, 2007 00:03 EST

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[Guest guest]

Dear list members,

 

As the attached news story shows, the dollar has declined today due

to new data being published today which shows that the US received

the least funds from abroad in December for the past five years.

 

Today, transit Jupiter is beginning to aspect transit L8 Saturn in

H1. It has for some days been within orb of its conjunct to natal

Saturn in H5. This could be explainin that there are now first signs

of reduced liquidity in the USA.

 

This development is in line with the predictions based on this chart.

It will be interesting to follow in coming weeks and months.

 

Best wishes,

 

Thor

 

Dollar Declines After Foreign Investment in Securities Falls

By Bo Nielsen

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar declined against the yen and fell

to the lowest versus the euro in more than a month after a report

showed the U.S. attracted the least investment in its long-term

assets during December in almost five years.

 

Total purchases of equities, notes and bonds dropped to a net $15.6

billion, from a revised $84.9 billion in November, the Treasury

Department said today in Washington. Including short- term

securities, such as Treasury bills and so-called non-market

transactions such as stock swaps, foreigners sold a net $11 billion.

 

``The dollar is trading a little bit weaker at the moment and the

market might be sensitive to any data that indicates a soft

economy,'' said Robert Lynch, a currency strategist in New York for

HSBC Bank USA NA, before the release of the report.

 

The dollar dropped to 119.92 yen at 9:07 a.m. in New York, from

120.79 yen yesterday. The dollar traded at $1.3154 against the euro

from $1.3131. The European currency fell to 157.76 yen from 158.60.

 

The yen gained earlier against the U.S. currency after a report

showed Japan's economy expanded at an annualized 4.8 percent in the

fourth quarter, the fastest in almost three years and above the 3.8

percent forecast by 38 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

 

Bank of Japan

 

The growth in the nation's gross domestic product may persuade the

Bank of Japan to lift interest rates next week. At 0.25 percent,

Japan has the lowest borrowing costs among industrialized nations.

The benchmark interest rate for the Bank of England and the Federal

Reserve is 5.25 percent while the European Central Bank's is 3.5

percent.

 

The dollar extended its decline versus the yen after the Labor

Department in Washington said the number of Americans filing first-

time claims for state unemployment benefits rose last week by the

most since September 2005, partly a reflection of winter storms that

gripped portions of the nation.

 

Initial jobless claims increased by 44,000 to 357,000 in the week

ended Feb. 10. The four-week moving average, a less volatile

indicator, rose to 326,250 from 308,750 the prior week.

 

Losses in the dollar may be limited as Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

testifies before the House Financial Services Committee, chaired by

Democratic Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, at 10 a.m.

today in Washington.

 

SAMVA , Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

>

> Dear list members,

>

> Attached is the chart of Ben Bernanke, the current Chairman of

the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve ( " the

Fed " ). Bernanke was born December 13, 1953 in August Georgia, USA. He

is a macroeconomist by profession. He was previously Chairman of the

U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and member of

the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, serving from August

2002 until just prior to his June 2005 swearing-in as CEA chairman.

Bernanke was previously the chairman of the Department of Economics

at Princeton University. Bernanke married Spanish instructor Anna

Friedmann, who taught at Princeton Day School, on May 29, 1978. They

have two children. On October 24, 2005, President George W. Bush

nominated Bernanke to succeed Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the

Federal Reserve. Bernanke was sworn in on February 1, 2006 after the

Senate's confirmation by a voice vote on January 31, 2006. His first

months as chairman of the Fed were marked by

> difficulties communicating with the media. Lately, however, he has

gotten better marks for his handling of the economy. He is considered

to differ in his style from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

Greenspan used to do the so-called " Greenspan two step " by raising

interest rates too high and then when demand pressures had been

contained he backed down. Bernanke, however, has decided to not raise

interest rates while inflation and the economy are increasing

modestly. This decision by Bernanke has favourably surprised the

market and share prices have risen very fast in recent months.

Yesterday, one commentator on Bloomberg suggested he may raise rates

again later this year. Bernanke is giving testimony to US Congress

today and yesterday. As the following story suggests, he is quite

sanguine about the prospects for inflation although he does not rule

out raising rates further if the need arises.

>

> Based on the SAMVA USA chart, I have suggested that liquidity

conditions in financial markets may turn adverse in coming months.

One possible reason for that could be an unexpected tightening of

the Fed monetary policy and that it would raise rates when the market

least expects it. The next Fed policy meeting is on 20/21 March 2007.

This could be an important date for the developments in financial

markets to take a turn for the worse. Of course, this is quite

speculative, how the karma as seen in the chart manifests, assuming

it is the authentic chart. However, such events are still worth

watching.

>

> For lack of a birth time for Bernanke, I have rectified his chart

as 10° Libra rising with exatled L5 Saturn in H1 MEP. This could

explain his somber but respected approach. His difficulty in

communicating with the media could come from L12 Mercury on H2 MEP,

also suggesting his foreign born wife. During the coming few months,

transit Rahu is conjunct his natal L10 Moon in H5. This situation

could place pressure on him in his career.

>

> On March 21, 2007, when the Fed announces its next decision on

interest rates - in addition to the afflictions noted involving slow

moving planets,

> * Transit L10 will be opposite from transit L8 Saturn in H1 and

under aspect from natal L8 Saturn in H5.

> * Transit L2 Sun will under aspect from natal L6 Jupiter in H5.

> * Transit L3 Mercury will be in H8

> * Transit L1 Moon will be conjunct ntal Rahu in H10.

>

> It is possible that the Federal Reserve Board will announce on this

day that it is raising interest rates to quell inflation, which the

data will by then show is moving faster than earlier thought. Such a

development would surprise the market and push share prices down.

>

> It is at least one possible scenario to explain why share prices

would decline in the spring. Other factors include rising geo-

political tension, military conflict and sharply rising oil prices

(due to the stationary transit aspect of Jupiter on Saturn).

>

> Best wishes,

>

> Thor

>

> Bernanke Pitches Slower Inflation Without Harm to Employment

> By Craig Torres and Vivien Lou Chen

> Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke is betting his credibility

with investors that inflation can be reduced without much cost to

economic growth and employment.

> The Federal Reserve chairman told the Senate Banking Committee

yesterday that his preferred gauge of inflation will fall to or be

below 2 percent next year, largely because of lower prices for oil,

commodities and rent. The Fed also predicted unemployment will stay

below 5 percent through the end of 2008.

> Investors, for now, endorse the strategy of relying on market

forces, not monetary policy, to contain prices. Stocks and bonds

rallied after Bernanke's testimony, the first in a two-day semiannual

presentation on the economic outlook.

> ``The forecast for declining inflation is getting no help from

monetary policy or economic slack,'' said Brian Sack, vice president

at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington and a former Fed

economist. ``It is based entirely on the reversal of special factors

that have been boosting inflation.''

> Bernanke, 53, was applauded by lawmakers for having addressed a

widening gap in incomes in a speech earlier this month, with few

challenges to his outlook on the economy. At the Senate committee

yesterday, Democrats instead faulted him for insufficient responses

on subprime lending and potential changes to the tax code.

> The Fed chief testifies before the House Financial Services

Committee, chaired by Democratic Representative Barney Frank of

Massachusetts, at 10 a.m. today. His prepared remarks are likely to

be identical to his Senate testimony.

> Rate Threat

> Fed officials have retained the threat of further interest- rate

increases since they paused after 17 boosts over two years, yet their

forecasts show they are willing to tolerate slightly elevated

inflation for another year. The benchmark federal funds rate is 5.25

percent.

> The Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price

index, minus food and energy, has been at or above the Fed chairman's

comfort zone of 1 percent to 2 percent for 33 months.

> Judging from Bernanke's remarks, investors concluded the central

bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged for several months

at least. The Fed's forecasts show inflation is expected to slow

without a significant rise in unemployment or slowdown in growth this

year or next.

> ``It is sort of like, `In Ben Bernanke We Trust,''' said Jay

Mauro, head of derivatives and interest-rate strategy at State Street

Bank & Trust Co. in Boston. ``He has done a very good job of creating

an environment of low inflation expectations, without doing much to

the fed funds rate.''

> Inflation Forecast

> Fed board governors and district-bank presidents forecast the

central bank's preferred price gauge will drop to 1.75 percent to 2

percent in the final quarter of 2008, from 2 percent to 2.25 percent

this year. The officials don't release their interest-rate

assumptions.

> The risk inflation won't moderate remains the ``predominant''

concern, Bernanke said yesterday. The Fed board said in its Monetary

Policy Report that ``longer-run inflation expectations could

deteriorate'' if inflation stays around the level of the past three

years.

> ``They have huge credibility,'' allowing the Fed to keep rates

steady for now, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS

Greenwich Capital Markets, in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``The risk is

that inflation stays too high for too long,'' he added. Stanley

predicts the Fed will raise rates in the fourth quarter.

> The Standard and Poor's 500 stock index rose 0.8 percent

yesterday to 1455.30. The U.S. 10-year note rose 9/16, pushing the

yield down 7 basis points to 4.74 percent.

> Markets `Happy'

> ``The Fed is pretty much on hold,'' said Robert Brusca, former

chief of the New York Fed's international financial markets division

who now runs his own economics firm, Fact & Opinion Economics, in New

York. ``The markets seem to be pretty happy with that outcome.''

> Fed officials estimated the economy will expand 2.5 percent to 3

percent this year. For 2008, Fed officials expect growth of 2.75

percent to 3 percent.

> They expect unemployment to average 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent

in the fourth quarter and in the last three months of 2008. The

jobless rate was 4.6 percent last month, close to a five-year low.

> Bernanke gave an upbeat picture of the economy, saying consumer

spending has been the ``mainstay'' of growth. The worst housing slump

in more than a decade won't have a significant effect on other parts

of the economy, he said.

> Employment `Tight'

> Bernanke said a tight labor market is an ``important'' inflation

risk because companies could pass higher compensation costs through

to prices. That could add to inflation, ``effectively nullifying the

purchasing power of at least some portion of the increase in labor

compensation.''

> ``The rate of resource utilization is high, as can be seen in

rates of capacity utilization above their long-term average and, most

evidently, in the tightness of the labor market,'' Bernanke said.

> Capacity utilization, the proportion of factories in use, slipped

to 81.7 percent last month, according to the median estimate of

economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Fed releases the figure at

9:15 a.m. in Washington. The gauge reached a six-year high in July

and August.

> To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Torres in

Washington;

> Last Updated: February 15, 2007 00:03 EST

>

>

>

> Cheap Talk? Check out Messenger's low PC-to-Phone call rates.

>

[Guest guest]

Dear list members,

 

The US economic situation seems to have become increasingly uncertain

at the present time:

 

1. The US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is very

high, over 12,700, with many people thinking it will just continue to

rise.

 

2. The Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke in his recent testimony to

the US Congress signaled a " bias " towards containing inflation. He

said that the Fed will raise interest rates if the inflation measures

suggest it is not coming down.

 

3. Inflation data today suggests inflation, including core inflation,

is rising. One analyst said the new data was " a wake-up call for the

market. "

 

4. After having been on a down trend from the previous highs, oil

prices today have again risen above $60 per barrel. If the oil prices

rise more, this suggests consumer price inflation is not as likely to

come down as earlier thought.

 

6. The Japanese central bank today raised its interest rates on the

basis of data showing the economy and inflation were recovering. The

interest rates were raised from 0,25% to 0,5%. The Yen weakened on the

news. While the Japanese rates are still quite low, and have been very

low for over one decade, this move raises concerns that the end is

near for the chapter in global financial markets, characterized by

unlimited availability of cheap Japanese funds, is about to come to an

end.

 

7. Data in 2006 shows that foreigners have slowed down significantly

their investment in-flows into US long term securities.

 

In conclusion, while US stock market has been increasing lately on

optimism that the economy was headed for a soft landing with inflation

coming down, the above data indicates all is not well. The economy

and inflation could be more resilient than earlier thought, the Fed

could have to raise interest rates more and international availability

of cheap funds may be reduced. At least, it is possible to read such

a scenario from the SAMVA USA chart in coming weeks and months.

 

Already there are reports that stocks have slightly pulled back on

concerns of traders that the Fed will not reduce interest rates as

speedily as they had hoped. Imagine their surprise if the Fed raises

the rates next month! We will soon see.

 

Best wishes,

 

Thor

,

 

 

 

 

SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer wrote:

>

> Dear list members,

>

> As the attached news story shows, the dollar has declined today due

> to new data being published today which shows that the US received

> the least funds from abroad in December for the past five years.

>

> Today, transit Jupiter is beginning to aspect transit L8 Saturn in

> H1. It has for some days been within orb of its conjunct to natal

> Saturn in H5. This could be explainin that there are now first signs

> of reduced liquidity in the USA.

>

> This development is in line with the predictions based on this chart.

> It will be interesting to follow in coming weeks and months.

>

> Best wishes,

>

> Thor

>

> Dollar Declines After Foreign Investment in Securities Falls

> By Bo Nielsen

> Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar declined against the yen and fell

> to the lowest versus the euro in more than a month after a report

> showed the U.S. attracted the least investment in its long-term

> assets during December in almost five years.

>

> Total purchases of equities, notes and bonds dropped to a net $15.6

> billion, from a revised $84.9 billion in November, the Treasury

> Department said today in Washington. Including short- term

> securities, such as Treasury bills and so-called non-market

> transactions such as stock swaps, foreigners sold a net $11 billion.

>

> ``The dollar is trading a little bit weaker at the moment and the

> market might be sensitive to any data that indicates a soft

> economy,'' said Robert Lynch, a currency strategist in New York for

> HSBC Bank USA NA, before the release of the report.

>

> The dollar dropped to 119.92 yen at 9:07 a.m. in New York, from

> 120.79 yen yesterday. The dollar traded at $1.3154 against the euro

> from $1.3131. The European currency fell to 157.76 yen from 158.60.

>

> The yen gained earlier against the U.S. currency after a report

> showed Japan's economy expanded at an annualized 4.8 percent in the

> fourth quarter, the fastest in almost three years and above the 3.8

> percent forecast by 38 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

>

> Bank of Japan

>

> The growth in the nation's gross domestic product may persuade the

> Bank of Japan to lift interest rates next week. At 0.25 percent,

> Japan has the lowest borrowing costs among industrialized nations.

> The benchmark interest rate for the Bank of England and the Federal

> Reserve is 5.25 percent while the European Central Bank's is 3.5

> percent.

>

> The dollar extended its decline versus the yen after the Labor

> Department in Washington said the number of Americans filing first-

> time claims for state unemployment benefits rose last week by the

> most since September 2005, partly a reflection of winter storms that

> gripped portions of the nation.

>

> Initial jobless claims increased by 44,000 to 357,000 in the week

> ended Feb. 10. The four-week moving average, a less volatile

> indicator, rose to 326,250 from 308,750 the prior week.

>

> Losses in the dollar may be limited as Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

> testifies before the House Financial Services Committee, chaired by

> Democratic Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, at 10 a.m.

> today in Washington.

>

> SAMVA , Cosmologer <cosmologer@> wrote:

> >

> > Dear list members,

> >

> > Attached is the chart of Ben Bernanke, the current Chairman of

> the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve ( " the

> Fed " ). Bernanke was born December 13, 1953 in August Georgia, USA. He

> is a macroeconomist by profession. He was previously Chairman of the

> U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and member of

> the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, serving from August

> 2002 until just prior to his June 2005 swearing-in as CEA chairman.

> Bernanke was previously the chairman of the Department of Economics

> at Princeton University. Bernanke married Spanish instructor Anna

> Friedmann, who taught at Princeton Day School, on May 29, 1978. They

> have two children. On October 24, 2005, President George W. Bush

> nominated Bernanke to succeed Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the

> Federal Reserve. Bernanke was sworn in on February 1, 2006 after the

> Senate's confirmation by a voice vote on January 31, 2006. His first

> months as chairman of the Fed were marked by

> > difficulties communicating with the media. Lately, however, he has

> gotten better marks for his handling of the economy. He is considered

> to differ in his style from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

> Greenspan used to do the so-called " Greenspan two step " by raising

> interest rates too high and then when demand pressures had been

> contained he backed down. Bernanke, however, has decided to not raise

> interest rates while inflation and the economy are increasing

> modestly. This decision by Bernanke has favourably surprised the

> market and share prices have risen very fast in recent months.

> Yesterday, one commentator on Bloomberg suggested he may raise rates

> again later this year. Bernanke is giving testimony to US Congress

> today and yesterday. As the following story suggests, he is quite

> sanguine about the prospects for inflation although he does not rule

> out raising rates further if the need arises.

> >

> > Based on the SAMVA USA chart, I have suggested that liquidity

> conditions in financial markets may turn adverse in coming months.

> One possible reason for that could be an unexpected tightening of

> the Fed monetary policy and that it would raise rates when the market

> least expects it. The next Fed policy meeting is on 20/21 March 2007.

> This could be an important date for the developments in financial

> markets to take a turn for the worse. Of course, this is quite

> speculative, how the karma as seen in the chart manifests, assuming

> it is the authentic chart. However, such events are still worth

> watching.

> >

> > For lack of a birth time for Bernanke, I have rectified his chart

> as 10° Libra rising with exatled L5 Saturn in H1 MEP. This could

> explain his somber but respected approach. His difficulty in

> communicating with the media could come from L12 Mercury on H2 MEP,

> also suggesting his foreign born wife. During the coming few months,

> transit Rahu is conjunct his natal L10 Moon in H5. This situation

> could place pressure on him in his career.

> >

> > On March 21, 2007, when the Fed announces its next decision on

> interest rates - in addition to the afflictions noted involving slow

> moving planets,

> > * Transit L10 will be opposite from transit L8 Saturn in H1 and

> under aspect from natal L8 Saturn in H5.

> > * Transit L2 Sun will under aspect from natal L6 Jupiter in H5.

> > * Transit L3 Mercury will be in H8

> > * Transit L1 Moon will be conjunct ntal Rahu in H10.

> >

> > It is possible that the Federal Reserve Board will announce on this

> day that it is raising interest rates to quell inflation, which the

> data will by then show is moving faster than earlier thought. Such a

> development would surprise the market and push share prices down.

> >

> > It is at least one possible scenario to explain why share prices

> would decline in the spring. Other factors include rising geo-

> political tension, military conflict and sharply rising oil prices

> (due to the stationary transit aspect of Jupiter on Saturn).

> >

> > Best wishes,

> >

> > Thor

> >

> > Bernanke Pitches Slower Inflation Without Harm to Employment

> > By Craig Torres and Vivien Lou Chen

> > Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke is betting his credibility

> with investors that inflation can be reduced without much cost to

> economic growth and employment.

> > The Federal Reserve chairman told the Senate Banking Committee

> yesterday that his preferred gauge of inflation will fall to or be

> below 2 percent next year, largely because of lower prices for oil,

> commodities and rent. The Fed also predicted unemployment will stay

> below 5 percent through the end of 2008.

> > Investors, for now, endorse the strategy of relying on market

> forces, not monetary policy, to contain prices. Stocks and bonds

> rallied after Bernanke's testimony, the first in a two-day semiannual

> presentation on the economic outlook.

> > ``The forecast for declining inflation is getting no help from

> monetary policy or economic slack,'' said Brian Sack, vice president

> at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington and a former Fed

> economist. ``It is based entirely on the reversal of special factors

> that have been boosting inflation.''

> > Bernanke, 53, was applauded by lawmakers for having addressed a

> widening gap in incomes in a speech earlier this month, with few

> challenges to his outlook on the economy. At the Senate committee

> yesterday, Democrats instead faulted him for insufficient responses

> on subprime lending and potential changes to the tax code.

> > The Fed chief testifies before the House Financial Services

> Committee, chaired by Democratic Representative Barney Frank of

> Massachusetts, at 10 a.m. today. His prepared remarks are likely to

> be identical to his Senate testimony.

> > Rate Threat

> > Fed officials have retained the threat of further interest- rate

> increases since they paused after 17 boosts over two years, yet their

> forecasts show they are willing to tolerate slightly elevated

> inflation for another year. The benchmark federal funds rate is 5.25

> percent.

> > The Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price

> index, minus food and energy, has been at or above the Fed chairman's

> comfort zone of 1 percent to 2 percent for 33 months.

> > Judging from Bernanke's remarks, investors concluded the central

> bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged for several months

> at least. The Fed's forecasts show inflation is expected to slow

> without a significant rise in unemployment or slowdown in growth this

> year or next.

> > ``It is sort of like, `In Ben Bernanke We Trust,''' said Jay

> Mauro, head of derivatives and interest-rate strategy at State Street

> Bank & Trust Co. in Boston. ``He has done a very good job of creating

> an environment of low inflation expectations, without doing much to

> the fed funds rate.''

> > Inflation Forecast

> > Fed board governors and district-bank presidents forecast the

> central bank's preferred price gauge will drop to 1.75 percent to 2

> percent in the final quarter of 2008, from 2 percent to 2.25 percent

> this year. The officials don't release their interest-rate

> assumptions.

> > The risk inflation won't moderate remains the ``predominant''

> concern, Bernanke said yesterday. The Fed board said in its Monetary

> Policy Report that ``longer-run inflation expectations could

> deteriorate'' if inflation stays around the level of the past three

> years.

> > ``They have huge credibility,'' allowing the Fed to keep rates

> steady for now, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS

> Greenwich Capital Markets, in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``The risk is

> that inflation stays too high for too long,'' he added. Stanley

> predicts the Fed will raise rates in the fourth quarter.

> > The Standard and Poor's 500 stock index rose 0.8 percent

> yesterday to 1455.30. The U.S. 10-year note rose 9/16, pushing the

> yield down 7 basis points to 4.74 percent.

> > Markets `Happy'

> > ``The Fed is pretty much on hold,'' said Robert Brusca, former

> chief of the New York Fed's international financial markets division

> who now runs his own economics firm, Fact & Opinion Economics, in New

> York. ``The markets seem to be pretty happy with that outcome.''

> > Fed officials estimated the economy will expand 2.5 percent to 3

> percent this year. For 2008, Fed officials expect growth of 2.75

> percent to 3 percent.

> > They expect unemployment to average 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent

> in the fourth quarter and in the last three months of 2008. The

> jobless rate was 4.6 percent last month, close to a five-year low.

> > Bernanke gave an upbeat picture of the economy, saying consumer

> spending has been the ``mainstay'' of growth. The worst housing slump

> in more than a decade won't have a significant effect on other parts

> of the economy, he said.

> > Employment `Tight'

> > Bernanke said a tight labor market is an ``important'' inflation

> risk because companies could pass higher compensation costs through

> to prices. That could add to inflation, ``effectively nullifying the

> purchasing power of at least some portion of the increase in labor

> compensation.''

> > ``The rate of resource utilization is high, as can be seen in

> rates of capacity utilization above their long-term average and, most

> evidently, in the tightness of the labor market,'' Bernanke said.

> > Capacity utilization, the proportion of factories in use, slipped

> to 81.7 percent last month, according to the median estimate of

> economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Fed releases the figure at

> 9:15 a.m. in Washington. The gauge reached a six-year high in July

> and August.

> > To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Torres in

> Washington;

> > Last Updated: February 15, 2007 00:03 EST

> >

> >

> >

> > Cheap Talk? Check out Messenger's low PC-to-Phone call rates.

> >

>

[Guest guest]

U.S. Stocks Decline on Iran Concern; J.C. Penney, Toll Retreat

By Nick Baker

 

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell as Iran's refusal to stop a

uranium-enrichment program chilled investors, halting an early rally

spurred by technology companies.

 

Lower profit forecasts from J.C. Penney Co. and Toll Brothers Inc.

pushed down retailers and homebuilders. The Dow Jones Industrial

Average slumped the most in almost a month, the Standard & Poor's 500

Index declined for a second day, while the Nasdaq Composite Index

snapped a two-day advance.

 

Stocks erased their gains after Iran defied a United Nations Security

Council demand to halt its atomic work, then fell further on

speculation the U.S. Department of Homeland Security would raise the

nation's terror alert. Technology companies had climbed earlier after

Analog Devices Inc. said demand for its semiconductors is increasing.

 

``Iran is the monkey wrench in the system,'' said Andrew Seibert, who

helps manage $900 million at Stewart Capital Management in Pittsburgh.

It's ``very worrisome to a market that you might say is priced for

perfection, where everything needs to continue to be nice and happy.''

 

The Dow average slipped 70.98, or 0.6 percent, to 12,667.43 at 3:18

p.m. in New York. The S & P 500 dropped 3.57, or 0.2 percent, to

1454.06. The Nasdaq lost 1.16, or 0.1 percent, to 2517.26.

 

So far this month, the S & P 500 is up 1.1 percent. The benchmark is

headed toward its ninth consecutive month of gains, the longest such

streak since 1983, as the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest

rate unchanged at 5.25 percent since August.

 

SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer wrote:

>

> Dear list members,

>

> The US economic situation seems to have become increasingly uncertain

> at the present time:

>

> 1. The US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is very

> high, over 12,700, with many people thinking it will just continue to

> rise.

>

> 2. The Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke in his recent testimony to

> the US Congress signaled a " bias " towards containing inflation. He

> said that the Fed will raise interest rates if the inflation measures

> suggest it is not coming down.

>

> 3. Inflation data today suggests inflation, including core inflation,

> is rising. One analyst said the new data was " a wake-up call for the

> market. "

>

> 4. After having been on a down trend from the previous highs, oil

> prices today have again risen above $60 per barrel. If the oil prices

> rise more, this suggests consumer price inflation is not as likely to

> come down as earlier thought.

>

> 6. The Japanese central bank today raised its interest rates on the

> basis of data showing the economy and inflation were recovering. The

> interest rates were raised from 0,25% to 0,5%. The Yen weakened on the

> news. While the Japanese rates are still quite low, and have been very

> low for over one decade, this move raises concerns that the end is

> near for the chapter in global financial markets, characterized by

> unlimited availability of cheap Japanese funds, is about to come to an

> end.

>

> 7. Data in 2006 shows that foreigners have slowed down significantly

> their investment in-flows into US long term securities.

>

> In conclusion, while US stock market has been increasing lately on

> optimism that the economy was headed for a soft landing with inflation

> coming down, the above data indicates all is not well. The economy

> and inflation could be more resilient than earlier thought, the Fed

> could have to raise interest rates more and international availability

> of cheap funds may be reduced. At least, it is possible to read such

> a scenario from the SAMVA USA chart in coming weeks and months.

>

> Already there are reports that stocks have slightly pulled back on

> concerns of traders that the Fed will not reduce interest rates as

> speedily as they had hoped. Imagine their surprise if the Fed raises

> the rates next month! We will soon see.

>

> Best wishes,

>

> Thor

> ,

>

>

>

>

> SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote:

> >

> > Dear list members,

> >

> > As the attached news story shows, the dollar has declined today due

> > to new data being published today which shows that the US received

> > the least funds from abroad in December for the past five years.

> >

> > Today, transit Jupiter is beginning to aspect transit L8 Saturn in

> > H1. It has for some days been within orb of its conjunct to natal

> > Saturn in H5. This could be explainin that there are now first signs

> > of reduced liquidity in the USA.

> >

> > This development is in line with the predictions based on this chart.

> > It will be interesting to follow in coming weeks and months.

> >

> > Best wishes,

> >

> > Thor

> >

> > Dollar Declines After Foreign Investment in Securities Falls

> > By Bo Nielsen

> > Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar declined against the yen and fell

> > to the lowest versus the euro in more than a month after a report

> > showed the U.S. attracted the least investment in its long-term

> > assets during December in almost five years.

> >

> > Total purchases of equities, notes and bonds dropped to a net $15.6

> > billion, from a revised $84.9 billion in November, the Treasury

> > Department said today in Washington. Including short- term

> > securities, such as Treasury bills and so-called non-market

> > transactions such as stock swaps, foreigners sold a net $11 billion.

> >

> > ``The dollar is trading a little bit weaker at the moment and the

> > market might be sensitive to any data that indicates a soft

> > economy,'' said Robert Lynch, a currency strategist in New York for

> > HSBC Bank USA NA, before the release of the report.

> >

> > The dollar dropped to 119.92 yen at 9:07 a.m. in New York, from

> > 120.79 yen yesterday. The dollar traded at $1.3154 against the euro

> > from $1.3131. The European currency fell to 157.76 yen from 158.60.

> >

> > The yen gained earlier against the U.S. currency after a report

> > showed Japan's economy expanded at an annualized 4.8 percent in the

> > fourth quarter, the fastest in almost three years and above the 3.8

> > percent forecast by 38 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

> >

> > Bank of Japan

> >

> > The growth in the nation's gross domestic product may persuade the

> > Bank of Japan to lift interest rates next week. At 0.25 percent,

> > Japan has the lowest borrowing costs among industrialized nations.

> > The benchmark interest rate for the Bank of England and the Federal

> > Reserve is 5.25 percent while the European Central Bank's is 3.5

> > percent.

> >

> > The dollar extended its decline versus the yen after the Labor

> > Department in Washington said the number of Americans filing first-

> > time claims for state unemployment benefits rose last week by the

> > most since September 2005, partly a reflection of winter storms that

> > gripped portions of the nation.

> >

> > Initial jobless claims increased by 44,000 to 357,000 in the week

> > ended Feb. 10. The four-week moving average, a less volatile

> > indicator, rose to 326,250 from 308,750 the prior week.

> >

> > Losses in the dollar may be limited as Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

> > testifies before the House Financial Services Committee, chaired by

> > Democratic Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, at 10 a.m.

> > today in Washington.

> >

> > SAMVA , Cosmologer <cosmologer@> wrote:

> > >

> > > Dear list members,

> > >

> > > Attached is the chart of Ben Bernanke, the current Chairman of

> > the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve ( " the

> > Fed " ). Bernanke was born December 13, 1953 in August Georgia, USA. He

> > is a macroeconomist by profession. He was previously Chairman of the

> > U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and member of

> > the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, serving from August

> > 2002 until just prior to his June 2005 swearing-in as CEA chairman.

> > Bernanke was previously the chairman of the Department of Economics

> > at Princeton University. Bernanke married Spanish instructor Anna

> > Friedmann, who taught at Princeton Day School, on May 29, 1978. They

> > have two children. On October 24, 2005, President George W. Bush

> > nominated Bernanke to succeed Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the

> > Federal Reserve. Bernanke was sworn in on February 1, 2006 after the

> > Senate's confirmation by a voice vote on January 31, 2006. His first

> > months as chairman of the Fed were marked by

> > > difficulties communicating with the media. Lately, however, he has

> > gotten better marks for his handling of the economy. He is considered

> > to differ in his style from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

> > Greenspan used to do the so-called " Greenspan two step " by raising

> > interest rates too high and then when demand pressures had been

> > contained he backed down. Bernanke, however, has decided to not raise

> > interest rates while inflation and the economy are increasing

> > modestly. This decision by Bernanke has favourably surprised the

> > market and share prices have risen very fast in recent months.

> > Yesterday, one commentator on Bloomberg suggested he may raise rates

> > again later this year. Bernanke is giving testimony to US Congress

> > today and yesterday. As the following story suggests, he is quite

> > sanguine about the prospects for inflation although he does not rule

> > out raising rates further if the need arises.

> > >

> > > Based on the SAMVA USA chart, I have suggested that liquidity

> > conditions in financial markets may turn adverse in coming months.

> > One possible reason for that could be an unexpected tightening of

> > the Fed monetary policy and that it would raise rates when the market

> > least expects it. The next Fed policy meeting is on 20/21 March 2007.

> > This could be an important date for the developments in financial

> > markets to take a turn for the worse. Of course, this is quite

> > speculative, how the karma as seen in the chart manifests, assuming

> > it is the authentic chart. However, such events are still worth

> > watching.

> > >

> > > For lack of a birth time for Bernanke, I have rectified his chart

> > as 10° Libra rising with exatled L5 Saturn in H1 MEP. This could

> > explain his somber but respected approach. His difficulty in

> > communicating with the media could come from L12 Mercury on H2 MEP,

> > also suggesting his foreign born wife. During the coming few months,

> > transit Rahu is conjunct his natal L10 Moon in H5. This situation

> > could place pressure on him in his career.

> > >

> > > On March 21, 2007, when the Fed announces its next decision on

> > interest rates - in addition to the afflictions noted involving slow

> > moving planets,

> > > * Transit L10 will be opposite from transit L8 Saturn in H1 and

> > under aspect from natal L8 Saturn in H5.

> > > * Transit L2 Sun will under aspect from natal L6 Jupiter in H5.

> > > * Transit L3 Mercury will be in H8

> > > * Transit L1 Moon will be conjunct ntal Rahu in H10.

> > >

> > > It is possible that the Federal Reserve Board will announce on this

> > day that it is raising interest rates to quell inflation, which the

> > data will by then show is moving faster than earlier thought. Such a

> > development would surprise the market and push share prices down.

> > >

> > > It is at least one possible scenario to explain why share prices

> > would decline in the spring. Other factors include rising geo-

> > political tension, military conflict and sharply rising oil prices

> > (due to the stationary transit aspect of Jupiter on Saturn).

> > >

> > > Best wishes,

> > >

> > > Thor

> > >

> > > Bernanke Pitches Slower Inflation Without Harm to Employment

> > > By Craig Torres and Vivien Lou Chen

> > > Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke is betting his credibility

> > with investors that inflation can be reduced without much cost to

> > economic growth and employment.

> > > The Federal Reserve chairman told the Senate Banking Committee

> > yesterday that his preferred gauge of inflation will fall to or be

> > below 2 percent next year, largely because of lower prices for oil,

> > commodities and rent. The Fed also predicted unemployment will stay

> > below 5 percent through the end of 2008.

> > > Investors, for now, endorse the strategy of relying on market

> > forces, not monetary policy, to contain prices. Stocks and bonds

> > rallied after Bernanke's testimony, the first in a two-day semiannual

> > presentation on the economic outlook.

> > > ``The forecast for declining inflation is getting no help from

> > monetary policy or economic slack,'' said Brian Sack, vice president

> > at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington and a former Fed

> > economist. ``It is based entirely on the reversal of special factors

> > that have been boosting inflation.''

> > > Bernanke, 53, was applauded by lawmakers for having addressed a

> > widening gap in incomes in a speech earlier this month, with few

> > challenges to his outlook on the economy. At the Senate committee

> > yesterday, Democrats instead faulted him for insufficient responses

> > on subprime lending and potential changes to the tax code.

> > > The Fed chief testifies before the House Financial Services

> > Committee, chaired by Democratic Representative Barney Frank of

> > Massachusetts, at 10 a.m. today. His prepared remarks are likely to

> > be identical to his Senate testimony.

> > > Rate Threat

> > > Fed officials have retained the threat of further interest- rate

> > increases since they paused after 17 boosts over two years, yet their

> > forecasts show they are willing to tolerate slightly elevated

> > inflation for another year. The benchmark federal funds rate is 5.25

> > percent.

> > > The Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price

> > index, minus food and energy, has been at or above the Fed chairman's

> > comfort zone of 1 percent to 2 percent for 33 months.

> > > Judging from Bernanke's remarks, investors concluded the central

> > bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged for several months

> > at least. The Fed's forecasts show inflation is expected to slow

> > without a significant rise in unemployment or slowdown in growth this

> > year or next.

> > > ``It is sort of like, `In Ben Bernanke We Trust,''' said Jay

> > Mauro, head of derivatives and interest-rate strategy at State Street

> > Bank & Trust Co. in Boston. ``He has done a very good job of creating

> > an environment of low inflation expectations, without doing much to

> > the fed funds rate.''

> > > Inflation Forecast

> > > Fed board governors and district-bank presidents forecast the

> > central bank's preferred price gauge will drop to 1.75 percent to 2

> > percent in the final quarter of 2008, from 2 percent to 2.25 percent

> > this year. The officials don't release their interest-rate

> > assumptions.

> > > The risk inflation won't moderate remains the ``predominant''

> > concern, Bernanke said yesterday. The Fed board said in its Monetary

> > Policy Report that ``longer-run inflation expectations could

> > deteriorate'' if inflation stays around the level of the past three

> > years.

> > > ``They have huge credibility,'' allowing the Fed to keep rates

> > steady for now, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS

> > Greenwich Capital Markets, in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``The risk is

> > that inflation stays too high for too long,'' he added. Stanley

> > predicts the Fed will raise rates in the fourth quarter.

> > > The Standard and Poor's 500 stock index rose 0.8 percent

> > yesterday to 1455.30. The U.S. 10-year note rose 9/16, pushing the

> > yield down 7 basis points to 4.74 percent.

> > > Markets `Happy'

> > > ``The Fed is pretty much on hold,'' said Robert Brusca, former

> > chief of the New York Fed's international financial markets division

> > who now runs his own economics firm, Fact & Opinion Economics, in New

> > York. ``The markets seem to be pretty happy with that outcome.''

> > > Fed officials estimated the economy will expand 2.5 percent to 3

> > percent this year. For 2008, Fed officials expect growth of 2.75

> > percent to 3 percent.

> > > They expect unemployment to average 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent

> > in the fourth quarter and in the last three months of 2008. The

> > jobless rate was 4.6 percent last month, close to a five-year low.

> > > Bernanke gave an upbeat picture of the economy, saying consumer

> > spending has been the ``mainstay'' of growth. The worst housing slump

> > in more than a decade won't have a significant effect on other parts

> > of the economy, he said.

> > > Employment `Tight'

> > > Bernanke said a tight labor market is an ``important'' inflation

> > risk because companies could pass higher compensation costs through

> > to prices. That could add to inflation, ``effectively nullifying the

> > purchasing power of at least some portion of the increase in labor

> > compensation.''

> > > ``The rate of resource utilization is high, as can be seen in

> > rates of capacity utilization above their long-term average and, most

> > evidently, in the tightness of the labor market,'' Bernanke said.

> > > Capacity utilization, the proportion of factories in use, slipped

> > to 81.7 percent last month, according to the median estimate of

> > economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Fed releases the figure at

> > 9:15 a.m. in Washington. The gauge reached a six-year high in July

> > and August.

> > > To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Torres in

> > Washington;

> > > Last Updated: February 15, 2007 00:03 EST

> > >

> > >

> > >

> > > Cheap Talk? Check out Messenger's low PC-to-Phone call rates.

> > >

> >

>

[Guest guest]

Dear list members,

 

The prediction that liquidity in the US finanicial market might get

constrained is actually supported by recent economic data and its

likely impact on US monetary policy:

 

------------

U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Rebounds, Spending Grows (Update2)

By Joe Richter and Shobhana Chandra

March 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly expanded and

personal income, spending and prices rose more than forecast, making

it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates any time

soon.

--------

 

As the story makes clear, such data may make it harder for the Fed to

reduce interest rates. Although the new data had a short term impact

to reduce the losses on Wall Street, because it reduced the concern

that the economy was already tanking, it should have an effect to

increase worries about the future development in financial markets if

US interest rates have to remain high for some time. The uncertainty

about the US economic policy is not helpful when turbulence in the

market has suddenly increased.

 

We'll see how it plays out.

 

Best wishes,

 

Thor

 

 

SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer wrote:

 

> SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote:

> >

> > Dear list members,

> >

> > The US economic situation seems to have become increasingly

uncertain

> > at the present time:

> >

> > 1. The US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is very

> > high, over 12,700, with many people thinking it will just

continue to

> > rise.

> >

> > 2. The Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke in his recent testimony

to

> > the US Congress signaled a " bias " towards containing inflation. He

> > said that the Fed will raise interest rates if the inflation

measures

> > suggest it is not coming down.

> >

> > 3. Inflation data today suggests inflation, including core

inflation,

> > is rising. One analyst said the new data was " a wake-up call for

the

> > market. "

> >

> > 4. After having been on a down trend from the previous highs, oil

> > prices today have again risen above $60 per barrel. If the oil

prices

> > rise more, this suggests consumer price inflation is not as

likely to

> > come down as earlier thought.

> >

> > 6. The Japanese central bank today raised its interest rates on

the

> > basis of data showing the economy and inflation were recovering.

The

> > interest rates were raised from 0,25% to 0,5%. The Yen weakened

on the

> > news. While the Japanese rates are still quite low, and have been

very

> > low for over one decade, this move raises concerns that the end is

> > near for the chapter in global financial markets, characterized by

> > unlimited availability of cheap Japanese funds, is about to come

to an

> > end.

> >

> > 7. Data in 2006 shows that foreigners have slowed down

significantly

> > their investment in-flows into US long term securities.

> >

> > In conclusion, while US stock market has been increasing lately on

> > optimism that the economy was headed for a soft landing with

inflation

> > coming down, the above data indicates all is not well. The economy

> > and inflation could be more resilient than earlier thought, the

Fed

> > could have to raise interest rates more and international

availability

> > of cheap funds may be reduced. At least, it is possible to read

such

> > a scenario from the SAMVA USA chart in coming weeks and months.

> >

> > Already there are reports that stocks have slightly pulled back on

> > concerns of traders that the Fed will not reduce interest rates as

> > speedily as they had hoped. Imagine their surprise if the Fed

raises

> > the rates next month! We will soon see.

> >

> > Best wishes,

> >

> > Thor

> >

> > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote:

> > >

> > > Dear list members,

> > >

> > > As the attached news story shows, the dollar has declined today

due

> > > to new data being published today which shows that the US

received

> > > the least funds from abroad in December for the past five

years.

> > >

> > > Today, transit Jupiter is beginning to aspect transit L8 Saturn

in

> > > H1. It has for some days been within orb of its conjunct to

natal

> > > Saturn in H5. This could be explainin that there are now first

signs

> > > of reduced liquidity in the USA.

> > >

> > > This development is in line with the predictions based on this

chart.

> > > It will be interesting to follow in coming weeks and months.

> > >

> > > Best wishes,

> > >

> > > Thor

 

> > > SAMVA , Cosmologer <cosmologer@> wrote:

> > > >

> > > > Dear list members,

> > > >

> > > > Attached is the chart of Ben Bernanke, the current Chairman

of

> > > the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve

( " the

> > > Fed " ). Bernanke was born December 13, 1953 in August Georgia,

USA. He

> > > is a macroeconomist by profession. He was previously Chairman

of the

> > > U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and member

of

> > > the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, serving from

August

> > > 2002 until just prior to his June 2005 swearing-in as CEA

chairman.

> > > Bernanke was previously the chairman of the Department of

Economics

> > > at Princeton University. Bernanke married Spanish instructor

Anna

> > > Friedmann, who taught at Princeton Day School, on May 29, 1978.

They

> > > have two children. On October 24, 2005, President George W.

Bush

> > > nominated Bernanke to succeed Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the

> > > Federal Reserve. Bernanke was sworn in on February 1, 2006

after the

> > > Senate's confirmation by a voice vote on January 31, 2006. His

first

> > > months as chairman of the Fed were marked by

> > > > difficulties communicating with the media. Lately, however,

he has

> > > gotten better marks for his handling of the economy. He is

considered

> > > to differ in his style from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

> > > Greenspan used to do the so-called " Greenspan two step " by

raising

> > > interest rates too high and then when demand pressures had been

> > > contained he backed down. Bernanke, however, has decided to not

raise

> > > interest rates while inflation and the economy are increasing

> > > modestly. This decision by Bernanke has favourably surprised

the

> > > market and share prices have risen very fast in recent months.

> > > Yesterday, one commentator on Bloomberg suggested he may raise

rates

> > > again later this year. Bernanke is giving testimony to US

Congress

> > > today and yesterday. As the following story suggests, he is

quite

> > > sanguine about the prospects for inflation although he does not

rule

> > > out raising rates further if the need arises.

> > > >

> > > > Based on the SAMVA USA chart, I have suggested that

liquidity

> > > conditions in financial markets may turn adverse in coming

months.

> > > One possible reason for that could be an unexpected tightening

of

> > > the Fed monetary policy and that it would raise rates when the

market

> > > least expects it. The next Fed policy meeting is on 20/21 March

2007.

> > > This could be an important date for the developments in

financial

> > > markets to take a turn for the worse. Of course, this is quite

> > > speculative, how the karma as seen in the chart manifests,

assuming

> > > it is the authentic chart. However, such events are still worth

> > > watching.

> > > >

> > > > For lack of a birth time for Bernanke, I have rectified his

chart

> > > as 10° Libra rising with exatled L5 Saturn in H1 MEP. This

could

> > > explain his somber but respected approach. His difficulty in

> > > communicating with the media could come from L12 Mercury on H2

MEP,

> > > also suggesting his foreign born wife. During the coming few

months,

> > > transit Rahu is conjunct his natal L10 Moon in H5. This

situation

> > > could place pressure on him in his career.

> > > >

> > > > On March 21, 2007, when the Fed announces its next decision

on

> > > interest rates - in addition to the afflictions noted involving

slow

> > > moving planets,

> > > > * Transit L10 will be opposite from transit L8 Saturn in H1

and

> > > under aspect from natal L8 Saturn in H5.

> > > > * Transit L2 Sun will under aspect from natal L6 Jupiter in

H5.

> > > > * Transit L3 Mercury will be in H8

> > > > * Transit L1 Moon will be conjunct ntal Rahu in H10.

> > > >

> > > > It is possible that the Federal Reserve Board will announce

on this

> > > day that it is raising interest rates to quell inflation, which

the

> > > data will by then show is moving faster than earlier thought.

Such a

> > > development would surprise the market and push share prices

down.

> > > >

> > > > It is at least one possible scenario to explain why share

prices

> > > would decline in the spring. Other factors include rising geo-

> > > political tension, military conflict and sharply rising oil

prices

> > > (due to the stationary transit aspect of Jupiter on Saturn).

> > > >

> > > > Best wishes,

> > > >

> > > > Thor

> > > >

> > > > Bernanke Pitches Slower Inflation Without Harm to

Employment

> > > > By Craig Torres and Vivien Lou Chen

> > > > Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke is betting his

credibility

> > > with investors that inflation can be reduced without much cost

to

> > > economic growth and employment.

> > > > The Federal Reserve chairman told the Senate Banking

Committee

> > > yesterday that his preferred gauge of inflation will fall to or

be

> > > below 2 percent next year, largely because of lower prices for

oil,

> > > commodities and rent. The Fed also predicted unemployment will

stay

> > > below 5 percent through the end of 2008.

> > > > Investors, for now, endorse the strategy of relying on

market

> > > forces, not monetary policy, to contain prices. Stocks and

bonds

> > > rallied after Bernanke's testimony, the first in a two-day

semiannual

> > > presentation on the economic outlook.

> > > > ``The forecast for declining inflation is getting no help

from

> > > monetary policy or economic slack,'' said Brian Sack, vice

president

> > > at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington and a former Fed

> > > economist. ``It is based entirely on the reversal of special

factors

> > > that have been boosting inflation.''

> > > > Bernanke, 53, was applauded by lawmakers for having

addressed a

> > > widening gap in incomes in a speech earlier this month, with

few

> > > challenges to his outlook on the economy. At the Senate

committee

> > > yesterday, Democrats instead faulted him for insufficient

responses

> > > on subprime lending and potential changes to the tax code.

> > > > The Fed chief testifies before the House Financial Services

> > > Committee, chaired by Democratic Representative Barney Frank of

> > > Massachusetts, at 10 a.m. today. His prepared remarks are

likely to

> > > be identical to his Senate testimony.

> > > > Rate Threat

> > > > Fed officials have retained the threat of further interest-

rate

> > > increases since they paused after 17 boosts over two years, yet

their

> > > forecasts show they are willing to tolerate slightly elevated

> > > inflation for another year. The benchmark federal funds rate is

5.25

> > > percent.

> > > > The Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures

price

> > > index, minus food and energy, has been at or above the Fed

chairman's

> > > comfort zone of 1 percent to 2 percent for 33 months.

> > > > Judging from Bernanke's remarks, investors concluded the

central

> > > bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged for several

months

> > > at least. The Fed's forecasts show inflation is expected to

slow

> > > without a significant rise in unemployment or slowdown in

growth this

> > > year or next.

> > > > ``It is sort of like, `In Ben Bernanke We Trust,''' said

Jay

> > > Mauro, head of derivatives and interest-rate strategy at State

Street

> > > Bank & Trust Co. in Boston. ``He has done a very good job of

creating

> > > an environment of low inflation expectations, without doing

much to

> > > the fed funds rate.''

> > > > Inflation Forecast

> > > > Fed board governors and district-bank presidents forecast

the

> > > central bank's preferred price gauge will drop to 1.75 percent

to 2

> > > percent in the final quarter of 2008, from 2 percent to 2.25

percent

> > > this year. The officials don't release their interest-rate

> > > assumptions.

> > > > The risk inflation won't moderate remains the

``predominant''

> > > concern, Bernanke said yesterday. The Fed board said in its

Monetary

> > > Policy Report that ``longer-run inflation expectations could

> > > deteriorate'' if inflation stays around the level of the past

three

> > > years.

> > > > ``They have huge credibility,'' allowing the Fed to keep

rates

> > > steady for now, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS

> > > Greenwich Capital Markets, in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``The

risk is

> > > that inflation stays too high for too long,'' he added. Stanley

> > > predicts the Fed will raise rates in the fourth quarter.

> > > > The Standard and Poor's 500 stock index rose 0.8 percent

> > > yesterday to 1455.30. The U.S. 10-year note rose 9/16, pushing

the

> > > yield down 7 basis points to 4.74 percent.

> > > > Markets `Happy'

> > > > ``The Fed is pretty much on hold,'' said Robert Brusca,

former

> > > chief of the New York Fed's international financial markets

division

> > > who now runs his own economics firm, Fact & Opinion Economics,

in New

> > > York. ``The markets seem to be pretty happy with that

outcome.''

> > > > Fed officials estimated the economy will expand 2.5 percent

to 3

> > > percent this year. For 2008, Fed officials expect growth of

2.75

> > > percent to 3 percent.

> > > > They expect unemployment to average 4.5 percent to 4.75

percent

> > > in the fourth quarter and in the last three months of 2008. The

> > > jobless rate was 4.6 percent last month, close to a five-year

low.

> > > > Bernanke gave an upbeat picture of the economy, saying

consumer

> > > spending has been the ``mainstay'' of growth. The worst housing

slump

> > > in more than a decade won't have a significant effect on other

parts

> > > of the economy, he said.

> > > > Employment `Tight'

> > > > Bernanke said a tight labor market is an ``important''

inflation

> > > risk because companies could pass higher compensation costs

through

> > > to prices. That could add to inflation, ``effectively

nullifying the

> > > purchasing power of at least some portion of the increase in

labor

> > > compensation.''

> > > > ``The rate of resource utilization is high, as can be seen

in

> > > rates of capacity utilization above their long-term average

and, most

> > > evidently, in the tightness of the labor market,'' Bernanke

said.

> > > > Capacity utilization, the proportion of factories in use,

slipped

> > > to 81.7 percent last month, according to the median estimate of

> > > economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Fed releases the

figure at

> > > 9:15 a.m. in Washington. The gauge reached a six-year high in

July

> > > and August.

> > > > To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Torres in

> > > Washington;

> > > > Last Updated: February 15, 2007 00:03 EST