Guest guest Posted March 16, 2007 Report Share Posted March 16, 2007 Dear list members, As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn between the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly valued stock market going forward. In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One significant element there is rising interest rates. Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may surprise the market by raising interest rates... " More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. Best wishes, Thor U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) By Courtney Schlisserman March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 percent higher than a year earlier. Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures make it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they meet next week. ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at this point.'' Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, according to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices were projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 a.m. in New York. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted March 16, 2007 Report Share Posted March 16, 2007 Dear list members, The Dow has been down 35-70 points for most of the day. It is still over 5% below the high reached on Feb. 20th last. The drop is linked to the adverse new information about inflation. Best wishes, Thor U.S. Stocks Fall After Consumer Prices Rise More Than Forecast By Nick Baker March 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks declined, erasing last week's rebound, after rising inflation damped expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. American Express Co. and Citigroup Inc. led a retreat by financial companies on expectations borrowing costs won't fall. Franklin Resources Inc., which owns the Franklin and Templeton mutual funds, dropped on a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgrade. The 0.4 percent rise in prices paid by consumers offset the biggest rise in industrial production since 2005. Rising inflation may forestall Federal Reserve efforts to ease a crisis among mortgage lenders to the riskiest borrowers. ``Because of what's happening in credit markets, particularly in real-estate loans, there has been the feeling that the Fed may be forced to lower rates sooner rather than later,'' said Stanley Nabi, who helps oversee about $8 billion at Silvercrest Asset Management in New York. High inflation ``will prevent the Fed from reducing rates.'' SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer wrote: > > Dear list members, > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn between > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > valued stock market going forward. > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may surprise the > market by raising interest rates... " > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > By Courtney Schlisserman > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 > percent higher than a year earlier. > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures make > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > meet next week. > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > this point.'' > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, according > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices were > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 > a.m. in New York. > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted March 18, 2007 Report Share Posted March 18, 2007 Dear list members, The following news story says that options futures suggest interest rates are more likely than not to be reduced by the Federal Reserve three times this year. Evidently, options traders think the Fed´s main concern is the risk of a credit crisis developing due to problems in the mortgage lending business. If such a crisis were to develop, economic growth would be reduced much more than otherwise. In the view of the options traders, the risks are clearly on the downside and the only sensible thing to do is reduce the rates. Many others are of the view, that the Fed is reasonably confident the problems in the mortgage sector will be contained and that inflation pressures are such that there is a need to raise interest rates or keep them at the present level to choke of incipient inflation pressures. To reduce the interest rates would be irresponsible and could reduce the credibility of the Fed as an inflation fighter. The Fed will likely reveal its intention at this weeks policy meeting. When and whatever it does, there is a real likelihood someone will not be too happy with its words or actions. According to the SAMVA USA chart, the stock market is predicted to weaken this Spring. One mechanism for that could be the decision taken by the Fed at the monetary policy meeting this week. The analysis or decision of the Fed could unnerve the market. In this regard, we can note that transit L8 Saturn will oppose both L10 Mars and natal L2 Sun at 24° Capricorn on March 21. Meanwhile, transit L1 Moon is conjunct Rahu in H10 and transit L2 Sun in H9 is still under the aspect of natal L6 Jupiter in H5. We will soon see what happens. Best wishes, Thor Fed May Lower Rates Three Times on Housing Woes, Options Show By Daniel Kruger March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are starting to say the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the housing slump threatens the economy's growth. Options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target rate for overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Just seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a reduction this year. Traders in options anticipate lower borrowing costs than economists or futures contracts, the most widely used barometer of Fed policy, amid increasing concerns about mortgage defaults. Futures show rates will fall to 4.75 percent by year-end and economists expect 5 percent, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey 73 forecasters from March 1 to March 7. ``The fear is it spills into the economy, it spills into the banking system and creates a credit crisis,'' said David Robin, an interest-rate strategist in New York who helps manage options trading for institutional clients at Fimat USA LLC, a unit of Societe Generale Group. SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer wrote: > > Dear list members, > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn between > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > valued stock market going forward. > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may surprise the > market by raising interest rates... " > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > By Courtney Schlisserman > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 > percent higher than a year earlier. > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures make > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > meet next week. > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > this point.'' > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, according > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices were > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 > a.m. in New York. > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted March 21, 2007 Report Share Posted March 21, 2007 Dear list members, My guess about the monetary policy of the US central bank was off the mark. Contrary to my expectation, the policy makers acted in such a way as to encourage market participants in the USA to invest in stocks. That said, this guess work was not directly based on an analysis of the transits and was thus perhaps not warranted. The real analysis of the chart indicates only difficulties for the wealth and disturbance in financial markets, as has stated in his prediction. However, I was interested in more detail and to follow the transits on a day-to-day basis. Whatever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of share prices spiralled upwards, gaining almost 170 points or almost 1.5%, in the final hours of trading following the decision by the Fed to keep the policy interest rate at 5.25% while removing the " tightening bias " . Clearly, the market read the Fed statement in such a way that the interest rates will likely come down sooner than later as a result of increased concerns about the economy moving forward, due mainly price declines and difficulties in several riskier asset classes. Lower interest rates are seen to support the growth of earnings by the companies and help the struggling mortgage market. However, please note that only one shoe has been dropped. The other shoe, the reaction of international investors, has yet to drop. Notably, this involves investors involved in the Yen carry trade. How will they react to a change in expectations concerning the profile of US interest rates having been shifted down for latter part of this year? Todays events could be seen to make the carry trade less lucrative, with then the dollar likely to weaken. We will soon see their reaction when trading in Asia begins after the close of business in the USA. That said, this is only speculation on my part as to how the market becomes unnerved. As I mentioned earlier, the events of recent weeks has demonstrated that there is considerable tension in the stock market. The investors are moving from pessimism to optimism very quickly. In other words, investors are highly uncertain of the prospects and behaving like a nervous herd of cattle. As in nature, a sudden lightning with a loud thunder clap may be enough to send the heard of investors stampeding in frenzy over the cliff. Given the transits, we are expecting some sudden event to shake the confidence of the investors. When and how that event shows up is still anybodies guess. That said, the transits remain very difficult in the SAMVA USA chart until mid May. A lot can happen between now and then if the SAMVA USA chart is authentic, as I believe it is. Perhaps, I should not bother with trying to outguess the real events. After all there is a saying that truth is sometimes stranger than fiction. While I have had fun with trying to second guess the events, perhaps such commentary is only serving to confuse matters for the students of astrology. So, maybe, I will just have to be content to wait for the end result and then pass judgement on the predictions and the chart. Best wishes, Thor Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 5.25 Percent AP - The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged Wednesday but triggered a strong rally on Wall Street as investors took hope the central bank might cut rates in the future. http://finance./ SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer wrote: > > Dear list members, > > The following news story says that options futures suggest interest > rates are more likely than not to be reduced by the Federal Reserve > three times this year. Evidently, options traders think the Fed�s main > concern is the risk of a credit crisis developing due to problems in > the mortgage lending business. If such a crisis were to develop, > economic growth would be reduced much more than otherwise. In the view > of the options traders, the risks are clearly on the downside and the > only sensible thing to do is reduce the rates. > > Many others are of the view, that the Fed is reasonably confident the > problems in the mortgage sector will be contained and that inflation > pressures are such that there is a need to raise interest rates or > keep them at the present level to choke of incipient inflation > pressures. To reduce the interest rates would be irresponsible and > could reduce the credibility of the Fed as an inflation fighter. > > The Fed will likely reveal its intention at this weeks policy meeting. > When and whatever it does, there is a real likelihood someone will > not be too happy with its words or actions. According to the SAMVA USA > chart, the stock market is predicted to weaken this Spring. One > mechanism for that could be the decision taken by the Fed at the > monetary policy meeting this week. The analysis or decision of the Fed > could unnerve the market. In this regard, we can note that transit L8 > Saturn will oppose both L10 Mars and natal L2 Sun at 24� Capricorn on > March 21. Meanwhile, transit L1 Moon is conjunct Rahu in H10 and > transit L2 Sun in H9 is still under the aspect of natal L6 Jupiter in H5. > > We will soon see what happens. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > Fed May Lower Rates Three Times on Housing Woes, Options Show > By Daniel Kruger > > March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are starting to say the > Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the > housing slump threatens the economy's growth. > > Options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a > 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target rate for > overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Just > seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a > reduction this year. > > Traders in options anticipate lower borrowing costs than economists or > futures contracts, the most widely used barometer of Fed policy, amid > increasing concerns about mortgage defaults. Futures show rates will > fall to 4.75 percent by year-end and economists expect 5 percent, > according to the median in a Bloomberg survey 73 forecasters from > March 1 to March 7. > > ``The fear is it spills into the economy, it spills into the banking > system and creates a credit crisis,'' said David Robin, an > interest-rate strategist in New York who helps manage options trading > for institutional clients at Fimat USA LLC, a unit of Societe Generale > Group. > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > Dear list members, > > > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn between > > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another > > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > > valued stock market going forward. > > > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the > > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is > > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One > > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely > > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may surprise the > > market by raising interest rates... " > > > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of > > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > > positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines > > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next > > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope > > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Thor > > > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > > By Courtney Schlisserman > > > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 > > percent higher than a year earlier. > > > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures make > > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > > meet next week. > > > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will > > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > > this point.'' > > > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, according > > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates > > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices were > > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield > > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 > > a.m. in New York. > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted March 21, 2007 Report Share Posted March 21, 2007 Dear Thor, There are two schools of thought on the future of the US economy; but we can examine the more likely one from the chart. The current transit situation indicates that there is no clear direction, erring on the side of weakness. In a couple months when the negative transits moderate, business as usual should prevail. Regarding USD and the SM indices, the economy that stops raising rates and errs on the side of cutting them has better potential for growth vs those which are just hitting their peak interest rates and deciding the next move. With money being pulled out of foreign investments and back into the US, local investing is likely. Players never like buying when something looks toppy (DJIA for eg); this pullback and sideways market will arb out a bottom and become attractive for new investments. Additionally, EUR/USD is the deepest currency. [This means that if you throw 1billion at it in prime time, you won't get much movement either way (10 pips max)]. There is large liquidity and only concerted efforts via clear sentiment effects rallies or dips. So the point - a higher EUR value is NOT desired by the EU bloc for trade reasons. This is detrimental to their economics. I would expect the ECB (or their agents) to be here around 1.34 buying USD in good quantity. USD/CHF will follow suit. GBP is the main carry trade vehicle so don't expect a proper reflection there, at least not right away. Noteable banks have been anticipating this level for USD buys. Let's see how it plays out. Best regards, Vyas Munidas - " cosmologer " <cosmologer <SAMVA > Wednesday, March 21, 2007 4:10 PM Re: USA - inflation pressure increases Dear list members, My guess about the monetary policy of the US central bank was off the mark. Contrary to my expectation, the policy makers acted in such a way as to encourage market participants in the USA to invest in stocks. That said, this guess work was not directly based on an analysis of the transits and was thus perhaps not warranted. The real analysis of the chart indicates only difficulties for the wealth and disturbance in financial markets, as has stated in his prediction. However, I was interested in more detail and to follow the transits on a day-to-day basis. Whatever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of share prices spiralled upwards, gaining almost 170 points or almost 1.5%, in the final hours of trading following the decision by the Fed to keep the policy interest rate at 5.25% while removing the " tightening bias " . Clearly, the market read the Fed statement in such a way that the interest rates will likely come down sooner than later as a result of increased concerns about the economy moving forward, due mainly price declines and difficulties in several riskier asset classes. Lower interest rates are seen to support the growth of earnings by the companies and help the struggling mortgage market. However, please note that only one shoe has been dropped. The other shoe, the reaction of international investors, has yet to drop. Notably, this involves investors involved in the Yen carry trade. How will they react to a change in expectations concerning the profile of US interest rates having been shifted down for latter part of this year? Todays events could be seen to make the carry trade less lucrative, with then the dollar likely to weaken. We will soon see their reaction when trading in Asia begins after the close of business in the USA. That said, this is only speculation on my part as to how the market becomes unnerved. As I mentioned earlier, the events of recent weeks has demonstrated that there is considerable tension in the stock market. The investors are moving from pessimism to optimism very quickly. In other words, investors are highly uncertain of the prospects and behaving like a nervous herd of cattle. As in nature, a sudden lightning with a loud thunder clap may be enough to send the heard of investors stampeding in frenzy over the cliff. Given the transits, we are expecting some sudden event to shake the confidence of the investors. When and how that event shows up is still anybodies guess. That said, the transits remain very difficult in the SAMVA USA chart until mid May. A lot can happen between now and then if the SAMVA USA chart is authentic, as I believe it is. Perhaps, I should not bother with trying to outguess the real events. After all there is a saying that truth is sometimes stranger than fiction. While I have had fun with trying to second guess the events, perhaps such commentary is only serving to confuse matters for the students of astrology. So, maybe, I will just have to be content to wait for the end result and then pass judgement on the predictions and the chart. Best wishes, Thor Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 5.25 Percent AP - The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged Wednesday but triggered a strong rally on Wall Street as investors took hope the central bank might cut rates in the future. http://finance./ SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer wrote: > > Dear list members, > > The following news story says that options futures suggest interest > rates are more likely than not to be reduced by the Federal Reserve > three times this year. Evidently, options traders think the Fed�s main > concern is the risk of a credit crisis developing due to problems in > the mortgage lending business. If such a crisis were to develop, > economic growth would be reduced much more than otherwise. In the view > of the options traders, the risks are clearly on the downside and the > only sensible thing to do is reduce the rates. > > Many others are of the view, that the Fed is reasonably confident the > problems in the mortgage sector will be contained and that inflation > pressures are such that there is a need to raise interest rates or > keep them at the present level to choke of incipient inflation > pressures. To reduce the interest rates would be irresponsible and > could reduce the credibility of the Fed as an inflation fighter. > > The Fed will likely reveal its intention at this weeks policy meeting. > When and whatever it does, there is a real likelihood someone will > not be too happy with its words or actions. According to the SAMVA USA > chart, the stock market is predicted to weaken this Spring. One > mechanism for that could be the decision taken by the Fed at the > monetary policy meeting this week. The analysis or decision of the Fed > could unnerve the market. In this regard, we can note that transit L8 > Saturn will oppose both L10 Mars and natal L2 Sun at 24� Capricorn on > March 21. Meanwhile, transit L1 Moon is conjunct Rahu in H10 and > transit L2 Sun in H9 is still under the aspect of natal L6 Jupiter in H5. > > We will soon see what happens. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > Fed May Lower Rates Three Times on Housing Woes, Options Show > By Daniel Kruger > > March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are starting to say the > Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the > housing slump threatens the economy's growth. > > Options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a > 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target rate for > overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Just > seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a > reduction this year. > > Traders in options anticipate lower borrowing costs than economists or > futures contracts, the most widely used barometer of Fed policy, amid > increasing concerns about mortgage defaults. Futures show rates will > fall to 4.75 percent by year-end and economists expect 5 percent, > according to the median in a Bloomberg survey 73 forecasters from > March 1 to March 7. > > ``The fear is it spills into the economy, it spills into the banking > system and creates a credit crisis,'' said David Robin, an > interest-rate strategist in New York who helps manage options trading > for institutional clients at Fimat USA LLC, a unit of Societe Generale > Group. > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > Dear list members, > > > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn between > > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another > > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > > valued stock market going forward. > > > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the > > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is > > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One > > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely > > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may surprise the > > market by raising interest rates... " > > > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of > > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > > positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines > > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next > > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope > > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Thor > > > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > > By Courtney Schlisserman > > > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 > > percent higher than a year earlier. > > > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures make > > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > > meet next week. > > > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will > > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > > this point.'' > > > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, according > > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates > > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices were > > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield > > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 > > a.m. in New York. > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted March 21, 2007 Report Share Posted March 21, 2007 Dear Vyas, Thanks for your analysis. Indeed, it is also conceivable, as you suggest, that stocks and the US dollar are bought and rise in value in coming weeks. Such a situation could just as well develop. However, that in itself is not the real issue. What the predictions are about is some event that unexpectedly develops and disturbs the markets. Even given such a scenario of rising prices, the share prices should nevertheless then decline significantly. In my view, that is the real test of the chart going forward. Best wishes, Thor SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <muni> wrote: > > Dear Thor, > > There are two schools of thought on the future of the US economy; but we can > examine the more likely one from the chart. > > The current transit situation indicates that there is no clear direction, > erring on the side of weakness. In a couple months when the negative > transits moderate, business as usual should prevail. > > Regarding USD and the SM indices, the economy that stops raising rates and > errs on the side of cutting them has better potential for growth vs those > which are just hitting their peak interest rates and deciding the next move. > With money being pulled out of foreign investments and back into the US, > local investing is likely. Players never like buying when something looks > toppy (DJIA for eg); this pullback and sideways market will arb out a bottom > and become attractive for new investments. > > Additionally, EUR/USD is the deepest currency. [This means that if you throw > 1billion at it in prime time, you won't get much movement either way (10 > pips max)]. There is large liquidity and only concerted efforts via clear > sentiment effects rallies or dips. So the point - a higher EUR value is NOT > desired by the EU bloc for trade reasons. This is detrimental to their > economics. I would expect the ECB (or their agents) to be here around 1.34 > buying USD in good quantity. USD/CHF will follow suit. GBP is the main carry > trade vehicle so don't expect a proper reflection there, at least not right > away. Noteable banks have been anticipating this level for USD buys. Let's > see how it plays out. > > > Best regards, > > Vyas Munidas > > > - > " cosmologer " <cosmologer > <SAMVA > > Wednesday, March 21, 2007 4:10 PM > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > Dear list members, > > My guess about the monetary policy of the US central bank was off the > mark. Contrary to my expectation, the policy makers acted in such a > way as to encourage market participants in the USA to invest in > stocks. That said, this guess work was not directly based on an > analysis of the transits and was thus perhaps not warranted. The real > analysis of the chart indicates only difficulties for the wealth and > disturbance in financial markets, as has stated in > his prediction. However, I was interested in more detail and to follow > the transits on a day-to-day basis. > > Whatever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of share prices > spiralled upwards, gaining almost 170 points or almost 1.5%, in the > final hours of trading following the decision by the Fed to keep the > policy interest rate at 5.25% while removing the " tightening bias " . > > Clearly, the market read the Fed statement in such a way that the > interest rates will likely come down sooner than later as a result of > increased concerns about the economy moving forward, due mainly price > declines and difficulties in several riskier asset classes. Lower > interest rates are seen to support the growth of earnings by the > companies and help the struggling mortgage market. > > However, please note that only one shoe has been dropped. The other > shoe, the reaction of international investors, has yet to drop. > Notably, this involves investors involved in the Yen carry trade. How > will they react to a change in expectations concerning the profile of > US interest rates having been shifted down for latter part of this > year? Todays events could be seen to make the carry trade less > lucrative, with then the dollar likely to weaken. We will soon see > their reaction when trading in Asia begins after the close of business > in the USA. That said, this is only speculation on my part as to how > the market becomes unnerved. > > As I mentioned earlier, the events of recent weeks has demonstrated > that there is considerable tension in the stock market. The investors > are moving from pessimism to optimism very quickly. In other words, > investors are highly uncertain of the prospects and behaving like a > nervous herd of cattle. As in nature, a sudden lightning with a loud > thunder clap may be enough to send the heard of investors stampeding > in frenzy over the cliff. > > Given the transits, we are expecting some sudden event to shake the > confidence of the investors. When and how that event shows up is still > anybodies guess. That said, the transits remain very difficult in the > SAMVA USA chart until mid May. A lot can happen between now and then > if the SAMVA USA chart is authentic, as I believe it is. > > Perhaps, I should not bother with trying to outguess the real events. > After all there is a saying that truth is sometimes stranger than > fiction. While I have had fun with trying to second guess the events, > perhaps such commentary is only serving to confuse matters for the > students of astrology. So, maybe, I will just have to be content to > wait for the end result and then pass judgement on the predictions and > the chart. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > > Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 5.25 Percent > AP - > > The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged Wednesday but > triggered a strong rally on Wall Street as investors took hope the > central bank might cut rates in the future. > > http://finance./ > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > Dear list members, > > > > The following news story says that options futures suggest interest > > rates are more likely than not to be reduced by the Federal Reserve > > three times this year. Evidently, options traders think the Fed�s main > > concern is the risk of a credit crisis developing due to problems in > > the mortgage lending business. If such a crisis were to develop, > > economic growth would be reduced much more than otherwise. In the view > > of the options traders, the risks are clearly on the downside and the > > only sensible thing to do is reduce the rates. > > > > Many others are of the view, that the Fed is reasonably confident the > > problems in the mortgage sector will be contained and that inflation > > pressures are such that there is a need to raise interest rates or > > keep them at the present level to choke of incipient inflation > > pressures. To reduce the interest rates would be irresponsible and > > could reduce the credibility of the Fed as an inflation fighter. > > > > The Fed will likely reveal its intention at this weeks policy meeting. > > When and whatever it does, there is a real likelihood someone will > > not be too happy with its words or actions. According to the SAMVA USA > > chart, the stock market is predicted to weaken this Spring. One > > mechanism for that could be the decision taken by the Fed at the > > monetary policy meeting this week. The analysis or decision of the Fed > > could unnerve the market. In this regard, we can note that transit L8 > > Saturn will oppose both L10 Mars and natal L2 Sun at 24� Capricorn on > > March 21. Meanwhile, transit L1 Moon is conjunct Rahu in H10 and > > transit L2 Sun in H9 is still under the aspect of natal L6 Jupiter > in H5. > > > > We will soon see what happens. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Thor > > > > Fed May Lower Rates Three Times on Housing Woes, Options Show > > By Daniel Kruger > > > > March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are starting to say the > > Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the > > housing slump threatens the economy's growth. > > > > Options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a > > 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target rate for > > overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Just > > seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a > > reduction this year. > > > > Traders in options anticipate lower borrowing costs than economists or > > futures contracts, the most widely used barometer of Fed policy, amid > > increasing concerns about mortgage defaults. Futures show rates will > > fall to 4.75 percent by year-end and economists expect 5 percent, > > according to the median in a Bloomberg survey 73 forecasters from > > March 1 to March 7. > > > > ``The fear is it spills into the economy, it spills into the banking > > system and creates a credit crisis,'' said David Robin, an > > interest-rate strategist in New York who helps manage options trading > > for institutional clients at Fimat USA LLC, a unit of Societe Generale > > Group. > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > > > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn between > > > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > > > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > > > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > > > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another > > > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > > > valued stock market going forward. > > > > > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > > > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the > > > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > > > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is > > > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > > > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > > > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One > > > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > > > > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely > > > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may surprise the > > > market by raising interest rates... " > > > > > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of > > > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > > > positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines > > > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next > > > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope > > > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > > > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > > > By Courtney Schlisserman > > > > > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > > > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > > > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > > > > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > > > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > > > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 > > > percent higher than a year earlier. > > > > > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures make > > > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > > > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > > > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > > > meet next week. > > > > > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > > > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will > > > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > > > this point.'' > > > > > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, according > > > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates > > > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices were > > > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > > > > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield > > > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 > > > a.m. in New York. > > > > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted March 21, 2007 Report Share Posted March 21, 2007 I fully agree! Best regards, Vyas Munidas - " cosmologer " <cosmologer <SAMVA > Wednesday, March 21, 2007 6:40 PM Re: USA - inflation pressure increases Dear Vyas, Thanks for your analysis. Indeed, it is also conceivable, as you suggest, that stocks and the US dollar are bought and rise in value in coming weeks. Such a situation could just as well develop. However, that in itself is not the real issue. What the predictions are about is some event that unexpectedly develops and disturbs the markets. Even given such a scenario of rising prices, the share prices should nevertheless then decline significantly. In my view, that is the real test of the chart going forward. Best wishes, Thor SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <muni> wrote: > > Dear Thor, > > There are two schools of thought on the future of the US economy; but we can > examine the more likely one from the chart. > > The current transit situation indicates that there is no clear direction, > erring on the side of weakness. In a couple months when the negative > transits moderate, business as usual should prevail. > > Regarding USD and the SM indices, the economy that stops raising rates and > errs on the side of cutting them has better potential for growth vs those > which are just hitting their peak interest rates and deciding the next move. > With money being pulled out of foreign investments and back into the US, > local investing is likely. Players never like buying when something looks > toppy (DJIA for eg); this pullback and sideways market will arb out a bottom > and become attractive for new investments. > > Additionally, EUR/USD is the deepest currency. [This means that if you throw > 1billion at it in prime time, you won't get much movement either way (10 > pips max)]. There is large liquidity and only concerted efforts via clear > sentiment effects rallies or dips. So the point - a higher EUR value is NOT > desired by the EU bloc for trade reasons. This is detrimental to their > economics. I would expect the ECB (or their agents) to be here around 1.34 > buying USD in good quantity. USD/CHF will follow suit. GBP is the main carry > trade vehicle so don't expect a proper reflection there, at least not right > away. Noteable banks have been anticipating this level for USD buys. Let's > see how it plays out. > > > Best regards, > > Vyas Munidas > > > - > " cosmologer " <cosmologer > <SAMVA > > Wednesday, March 21, 2007 4:10 PM > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > Dear list members, > > My guess about the monetary policy of the US central bank was off the > mark. Contrary to my expectation, the policy makers acted in such a > way as to encourage market participants in the USA to invest in > stocks. That said, this guess work was not directly based on an > analysis of the transits and was thus perhaps not warranted. The real > analysis of the chart indicates only difficulties for the wealth and > disturbance in financial markets, as has stated in > his prediction. However, I was interested in more detail and to follow > the transits on a day-to-day basis. > > Whatever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of share prices > spiralled upwards, gaining almost 170 points or almost 1.5%, in the > final hours of trading following the decision by the Fed to keep the > policy interest rate at 5.25% while removing the " tightening bias " . > > Clearly, the market read the Fed statement in such a way that the > interest rates will likely come down sooner than later as a result of > increased concerns about the economy moving forward, due mainly price > declines and difficulties in several riskier asset classes. Lower > interest rates are seen to support the growth of earnings by the > companies and help the struggling mortgage market. > > However, please note that only one shoe has been dropped. The other > shoe, the reaction of international investors, has yet to drop. > Notably, this involves investors involved in the Yen carry trade. How > will they react to a change in expectations concerning the profile of > US interest rates having been shifted down for latter part of this > year? Todays events could be seen to make the carry trade less > lucrative, with then the dollar likely to weaken. We will soon see > their reaction when trading in Asia begins after the close of business > in the USA. That said, this is only speculation on my part as to how > the market becomes unnerved. > > As I mentioned earlier, the events of recent weeks has demonstrated > that there is considerable tension in the stock market. The investors > are moving from pessimism to optimism very quickly. In other words, > investors are highly uncertain of the prospects and behaving like a > nervous herd of cattle. As in nature, a sudden lightning with a loud > thunder clap may be enough to send the heard of investors stampeding > in frenzy over the cliff. > > Given the transits, we are expecting some sudden event to shake the > confidence of the investors. When and how that event shows up is still > anybodies guess. That said, the transits remain very difficult in the > SAMVA USA chart until mid May. A lot can happen between now and then > if the SAMVA USA chart is authentic, as I believe it is. > > Perhaps, I should not bother with trying to outguess the real events. > After all there is a saying that truth is sometimes stranger than > fiction. While I have had fun with trying to second guess the events, > perhaps such commentary is only serving to confuse matters for the > students of astrology. So, maybe, I will just have to be content to > wait for the end result and then pass judgement on the predictions and > the chart. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > > Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 5.25 Percent > AP - > > The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged Wednesday but > triggered a strong rally on Wall Street as investors took hope the > central bank might cut rates in the future. > > http://finance./ > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > Dear list members, > > > > The following news story says that options futures suggest interest > > rates are more likely than not to be reduced by the Federal Reserve > > three times this year. Evidently, options traders think the Fed�s main > > concern is the risk of a credit crisis developing due to problems in > > the mortgage lending business. If such a crisis were to develop, > > economic growth would be reduced much more than otherwise. In the view > > of the options traders, the risks are clearly on the downside and the > > only sensible thing to do is reduce the rates. > > > > Many others are of the view, that the Fed is reasonably confident the > > problems in the mortgage sector will be contained and that inflation > > pressures are such that there is a need to raise interest rates or > > keep them at the present level to choke of incipient inflation > > pressures. To reduce the interest rates would be irresponsible and > > could reduce the credibility of the Fed as an inflation fighter. > > > > The Fed will likely reveal its intention at this weeks policy meeting. > > When and whatever it does, there is a real likelihood someone will > > not be too happy with its words or actions. According to the SAMVA USA > > chart, the stock market is predicted to weaken this Spring. One > > mechanism for that could be the decision taken by the Fed at the > > monetary policy meeting this week. The analysis or decision of the Fed > > could unnerve the market. In this regard, we can note that transit L8 > > Saturn will oppose both L10 Mars and natal L2 Sun at 24� Capricorn on > > March 21. Meanwhile, transit L1 Moon is conjunct Rahu in H10 and > > transit L2 Sun in H9 is still under the aspect of natal L6 Jupiter > in H5. > > > > We will soon see what happens. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Thor > > > > Fed May Lower Rates Three Times on Housing Woes, Options Show > > By Daniel Kruger > > > > March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are starting to say the > > Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the > > housing slump threatens the economy's growth. > > > > Options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a > > 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target rate for > > overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Just > > seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a > > reduction this year. > > > > Traders in options anticipate lower borrowing costs than economists or > > futures contracts, the most widely used barometer of Fed policy, amid > > increasing concerns about mortgage defaults. Futures show rates will > > fall to 4.75 percent by year-end and economists expect 5 percent, > > according to the median in a Bloomberg survey 73 forecasters from > > March 1 to March 7. > > > > ``The fear is it spills into the economy, it spills into the banking > > system and creates a credit crisis,'' said David Robin, an > > interest-rate strategist in New York who helps manage options trading > > for institutional clients at Fimat USA LLC, a unit of Societe Generale > > Group. > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > > > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn between > > > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > > > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > > > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > > > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another > > > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > > > valued stock market going forward. > > > > > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > > > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the > > > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > > > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is > > > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > > > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > > > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One > > > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > > > > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely > > > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may surprise the > > > market by raising interest rates... " > > > > > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of > > > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > > > positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines > > > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next > > > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope > > > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > > > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > > > By Courtney Schlisserman > > > > > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > > > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > > > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > > > > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > > > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > > > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 > > > percent higher than a year earlier. > > > > > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures make > > > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > > > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > > > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > > > meet next week. > > > > > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > > > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will > > > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > > > this point.'' > > > > > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, according > > > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates > > > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices were > > > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > > > > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield > > > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 > > > a.m. in New York. > > > > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted March 28, 2007 Report Share Posted March 28, 2007 Dear friends, Confusion appears to have developed in the market place about the stance of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve as evidenced by the initial reaction to the statement of the Fed on March 22, when stocks rallied heartily. In recent days, however, the market has resumed its decline. As the following news story mentions, the Chairman of the Fed, Ben Bernanke, will today testify before the US Congress. He will likely use the opportunity to clarify the stance of Fed policy, as the uncertainty of the market concerning the intentions of the Fed have increased in recent days. In view of the transits, the odds are that the testimony of the Fed Chairman won't be to the markets liking, which would have a negative impact for the stock market. We will soon see. So far, in futures trading this morning, the Dow Jones index is trading lower. The pressure from concerns about the outlook for the economy and the actions of the Fed are therefore still weighing on investors minds. Best wishes, Thor Bernanke set to clarify Fed stance By Krishna Guha in Washington Financial Times - March 28 2007 03:00 Ben Bernanke will be under intense scrutiny today when he testifies before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress - a week to the day after the Federal Reserve surprised the markets by adopting a confusing new policy statement. At the time, the markets thought the Fed was signalling that its next move would be a rate cut; a week later, the market has substantially reversed its view. The Fed chairman is likely to have to clarify what the new statement means. He might also be pressed to reveal where he stands on an emerging argument inside the Fed as to what its inflation objective should be. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a8f5d65c-dcc9-11db-a21d-000b5df10621.html SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <muni> wrote: > > I fully agree! > > > Best regards, > > Vyas Munidas > > > - > " cosmologer " <cosmologer > <SAMVA > > Wednesday, March 21, 2007 6:40 PM > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > Dear Vyas, > > Thanks for your analysis. Indeed, it is also conceivable, as you > suggest, that stocks and the US dollar are bought and rise in value in > coming weeks. Such a situation could just as well develop. However, > that in itself is not the real issue. What the predictions are about > is some event that unexpectedly develops and disturbs the markets. > Even given such a scenario of rising prices, the share prices should > nevertheless then decline significantly. In my view, that is the real > test of the chart going forward. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > > SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <munidas@> wrote: > > > > Dear Thor, > > > > There are two schools of thought on the future of the US economy; > but we can > > examine the more likely one from the chart. > > > > The current transit situation indicates that there is no clear > direction, > > erring on the side of weakness. In a couple months when the negative > > transits moderate, business as usual should prevail. > > > > Regarding USD and the SM indices, the economy that stops raising > rates and > > errs on the side of cutting them has better potential for growth vs > those > > which are just hitting their peak interest rates and deciding the > next move. > > With money being pulled out of foreign investments and back into the > US, > > local investing is likely. Players never like buying when something > looks > > toppy (DJIA for eg); this pullback and sideways market will arb out > a bottom > > and become attractive for new investments. > > > > Additionally, EUR/USD is the deepest currency. [This means that if > you throw > > 1billion at it in prime time, you won't get much movement either way > (10 > > pips max)]. There is large liquidity and only concerted efforts via > clear > > sentiment effects rallies or dips. So the point - a higher EUR value > is NOT > > desired by the EU bloc for trade reasons. This is detrimental to their > > economics. I would expect the ECB (or their agents) to be here > around 1.34 > > buying USD in good quantity. USD/CHF will follow suit. GBP is the > main carry > > trade vehicle so don't expect a proper reflection there, at least > not right > > away. Noteable banks have been anticipating this level for USD buys. > Let's > > see how it plays out. > > > > > > Best regards, > > > > Vyas Munidas > > > > > > - > > " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> > > <SAMVA > > > Wednesday, March 21, 2007 4:10 PM > > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > My guess about the monetary policy of the US central bank was off the > > mark. Contrary to my expectation, the policy makers acted in such a > > way as to encourage market participants in the USA to invest in > > stocks. That said, this guess work was not directly based on an > > analysis of the transits and was thus perhaps not warranted. The real > > analysis of the chart indicates only difficulties for the wealth and > > disturbance in financial markets, as has stated in > > his prediction. However, I was interested in more detail and to follow > > the transits on a day-to-day basis. > > > > Whatever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of share prices > > spiralled upwards, gaining almost 170 points or almost 1.5%, in the > > final hours of trading following the decision by the Fed to keep the > > policy interest rate at 5.25% while removing the " tightening bias " . > > > > Clearly, the market read the Fed statement in such a way that the > > interest rates will likely come down sooner than later as a result of > > increased concerns about the economy moving forward, due mainly price > > declines and difficulties in several riskier asset classes. Lower > > interest rates are seen to support the growth of earnings by the > > companies and help the struggling mortgage market. > > > > However, please note that only one shoe has been dropped. The other > > shoe, the reaction of international investors, has yet to drop. > > Notably, this involves investors involved in the Yen carry trade. How > > will they react to a change in expectations concerning the profile of > > US interest rates having been shifted down for latter part of this > > year? Todays events could be seen to make the carry trade less > > lucrative, with then the dollar likely to weaken. We will soon see > > their reaction when trading in Asia begins after the close of business > > in the USA. That said, this is only speculation on my part as to how > > the market becomes unnerved. > > > > As I mentioned earlier, the events of recent weeks has demonstrated > > that there is considerable tension in the stock market. The investors > > are moving from pessimism to optimism very quickly. In other words, > > investors are highly uncertain of the prospects and behaving like a > > nervous herd of cattle. As in nature, a sudden lightning with a loud > > thunder clap may be enough to send the heard of investors stampeding > > in frenzy over the cliff. > > > > Given the transits, we are expecting some sudden event to shake the > > confidence of the investors. When and how that event shows up is still > > anybodies guess. That said, the transits remain very difficult in the > > SAMVA USA chart until mid May. A lot can happen between now and then > > if the SAMVA USA chart is authentic, as I believe it is. > > > > Perhaps, I should not bother with trying to outguess the real events. > > After all there is a saying that truth is sometimes stranger than > > fiction. While I have had fun with trying to second guess the events, > > perhaps such commentary is only serving to confuse matters for the > > students of astrology. So, maybe, I will just have to be content to > > wait for the end result and then pass judgement on the predictions and > > the chart. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Thor > > > > > > Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 5.25 Percent > > AP - > > > > The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged Wednesday but > > triggered a strong rally on Wall Street as investors took hope the > > central bank might cut rates in the future. > > > > http://finance./ > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > The following news story says that options futures suggest interest > > > rates are more likely than not to be reduced by the Federal Reserve > > > three times this year. Evidently, options traders think the > Fed�s main > > > concern is the risk of a credit crisis developing due to problems in > > > the mortgage lending business. If such a crisis were to develop, > > > economic growth would be reduced much more than otherwise. In the view > > > of the options traders, the risks are clearly on the downside and the > > > only sensible thing to do is reduce the rates. > > > > > > Many others are of the view, that the Fed is reasonably confident the > > > problems in the mortgage sector will be contained and that inflation > > > pressures are such that there is a need to raise interest rates or > > > keep them at the present level to choke of incipient inflation > > > pressures. To reduce the interest rates would be irresponsible and > > > could reduce the credibility of the Fed as an inflation fighter. > > > > > > The Fed will likely reveal its intention at this weeks policy meeting. > > > When and whatever it does, there is a real likelihood someone will > > > not be too happy with its words or actions. According to the SAMVA USA > > > chart, the stock market is predicted to weaken this Spring. One > > > mechanism for that could be the decision taken by the Fed at the > > > monetary policy meeting this week. The analysis or decision of the Fed > > > could unnerve the market. In this regard, we can note that transit L8 > > > Saturn will oppose both L10 Mars and natal L2 Sun at 24� > Capricorn on > > > March 21. Meanwhile, transit L1 Moon is conjunct Rahu in H10 and > > > transit L2 Sun in H9 is still under the aspect of natal L6 Jupiter > > in H5. > > > > > > We will soon see what happens. > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > Fed May Lower Rates Three Times on Housing Woes, Options Show > > > By Daniel Kruger > > > > > > March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are starting to say the > > > Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the > > > housing slump threatens the economy's growth. > > > > > > Options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a > > > 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target rate for > > > overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Just > > > seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a > > > reduction this year. > > > > > > Traders in options anticipate lower borrowing costs than economists or > > > futures contracts, the most widely used barometer of Fed policy, amid > > > increasing concerns about mortgage defaults. Futures show rates will > > > fall to 4.75 percent by year-end and economists expect 5 percent, > > > according to the median in a Bloomberg survey 73 forecasters from > > > March 1 to March 7. > > > > > > ``The fear is it spills into the economy, it spills into the banking > > > system and creates a credit crisis,'' said David Robin, an > > > interest-rate strategist in New York who helps manage options trading > > > for institutional clients at Fimat USA LLC, a unit of Societe Generale > > > Group. > > > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > > > > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn > between > > > > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > > > > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > > > > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > > > > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another > > > > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > > > > valued stock market going forward. > > > > > > > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > > > > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the > > > > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > > > > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is > > > > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > > > > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > > > > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One > > > > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > > > > > > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely > > > > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may > surprise the > > > > market by raising interest rates... " > > > > > > > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of > > > > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > > > > positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines > > > > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next > > > > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope > > > > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > > > > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > > > > By Courtney Schlisserman > > > > > > > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > > > > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > > > > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > > > > > > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > > > > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > > > > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 > > > > percent higher than a year earlier. > > > > > > > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures > make > > > > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > > > > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > > > > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > > > > meet next week. > > > > > > > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > > > > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will > > > > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > > > > this point.'' > > > > > > > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, > according > > > > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. > Estimates > > > > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices > were > > > > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > > > > > > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield > > > > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 > > > > a.m. in New York. > > > > > > > > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted April 11, 2007 Report Share Posted April 11, 2007 Dear list members, In early February, I wrote an article about Major Corrections on Wall Street, which contained an analysis of major stock market corrections in terms of the SAMVA USA chart. In that paper I suggested the Fed might raise interest rates this Spring and that this might spook the markets. After the Fed met on March 20-21, they decided not to raise the interest rates. At that time, I thought my comments about monetary policy were off the mark concerning the need to raise interest rates and said so on this list. The minutes of the March meeting of the Board of the Federal Reserve System have just now been released concerning the deliberations of the Board members on those days. I am surprised to see that the minutes actually lend support to my words. The Fed considers it a real possibility that interest rates need to be increased. As a result, the stock market has accelerated a moderate decline that begin this morning in the afternoon trading session. The Dow is presently down around 90 points at around 12493. Evidently, investors are not pleased to read about the Feds willingness to wringing any inflationary pressure out of the economy with higher interest rates, should it deem it necessary. In short, while I was wrong about the actual decision at that time, such an act was clearly being considered at that time and may possibly be taken later this year. Best wishes, Thor Fed Minutes Say Interest-Rate Increases May `Prove Necessary' By Scott Lanman April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials agreed higher interest rates could still ``prove necessary'' to control inflation even as they removed a reference in their statement to tighter credit because of increased economic risks. ``Further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower inflation,'' the Fed said in minutes of the Open Market Committee's March 20-21 meeting, released today in Washington. ``But in light of the increased uncertainty about the outlook for both growth and inflation, the committee also agreed that the statement should no longer cite only the possibility of further firming.'' http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aLhnu90TOGTw & refer=home SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <muni> wrote: > > Dear Thor, > > There are two schools of thought on the future of the US economy; but we can > examine the more likely one from the chart. > > The current transit situation indicates that there is no clear direction, > erring on the side of weakness. In a couple months when the negative > transits moderate, business as usual should prevail. > > Regarding USD and the SM indices, the economy that stops raising rates and > errs on the side of cutting them has better potential for growth vs those > which are just hitting their peak interest rates and deciding the next move. > With money being pulled out of foreign investments and back into the US, > local investing is likely. Players never like buying when something looks > toppy (DJIA for eg); this pullback and sideways market will arb out a bottom > and become attractive for new investments. > > Additionally, EUR/USD is the deepest currency. [This means that if you throw > 1billion at it in prime time, you won't get much movement either way (10 > pips max)]. There is large liquidity and only concerted efforts via clear > sentiment effects rallies or dips. So the point - a higher EUR value is NOT > desired by the EU bloc for trade reasons. This is detrimental to their > economics. I would expect the ECB (or their agents) to be here around 1.34 > buying USD in good quantity. USD/CHF will follow suit. GBP is the main carry > trade vehicle so don't expect a proper reflection there, at least not right > away. Noteable banks have been anticipating this level for USD buys. Let's > see how it plays out. > > > Best regards, > > Vyas Munidas > > > - > " cosmologer " <cosmologer > <SAMVA > > Wednesday, March 21, 2007 4:10 PM > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > Dear list members, > > My guess about the monetary policy of the US central bank was off the > mark. Contrary to my expectation, the policy makers acted in such a > way as to encourage market participants in the USA to invest in > stocks. That said, this guess work was not directly based on an > analysis of the transits and was thus perhaps not warranted. The real > analysis of the chart indicates only difficulties for the wealth and > disturbance in financial markets, as has stated in > his prediction. However, I was interested in more detail and to follow > the transits on a day-to-day basis. > > Whatever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of share prices > spiralled upwards, gaining almost 170 points or almost 1.5%, in the > final hours of trading following the decision by the Fed to keep the > policy interest rate at 5.25% while removing the " tightening bias " . > > Clearly, the market read the Fed statement in such a way that the > interest rates will likely come down sooner than later as a result of > increased concerns about the economy moving forward, due mainly price > declines and difficulties in several riskier asset classes. Lower > interest rates are seen to support the growth of earnings by the > companies and help the struggling mortgage market. > > However, please note that only one shoe has been dropped. The other > shoe, the reaction of international investors, has yet to drop. > Notably, this involves investors involved in the Yen carry trade. How > will they react to a change in expectations concerning the profile of > US interest rates having been shifted down for latter part of this > year? Todays events could be seen to make the carry trade less > lucrative, with then the dollar likely to weaken. We will soon see > their reaction when trading in Asia begins after the close of business > in the USA. That said, this is only speculation on my part as to how > the market becomes unnerved. > > As I mentioned earlier, the events of recent weeks has demonstrated > that there is considerable tension in the stock market. The investors > are moving from pessimism to optimism very quickly. In other words, > investors are highly uncertain of the prospects and behaving like a > nervous herd of cattle. As in nature, a sudden lightning with a loud > thunder clap may be enough to send the heard of investors stampeding > in frenzy over the cliff. > > Given the transits, we are expecting some sudden event to shake the > confidence of the investors. When and how that event shows up is still > anybodies guess. That said, the transits remain very difficult in the > SAMVA USA chart until mid May. A lot can happen between now and then > if the SAMVA USA chart is authentic, as I believe it is. > > Perhaps, I should not bother with trying to outguess the real events. > After all there is a saying that truth is sometimes stranger than > fiction. While I have had fun with trying to second guess the events, > perhaps such commentary is only serving to confuse matters for the > students of astrology. So, maybe, I will just have to be content to > wait for the end result and then pass judgement on the predictions and > the chart. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > > Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 5.25 Percent > AP - > > The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged Wednesday but > triggered a strong rally on Wall Street as investors took hope the > central bank might cut rates in the future. > > http://finance./ > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > Dear list members, > > > > The following news story says that options futures suggest interest > > rates are more likely than not to be reduced by the Federal Reserve > > three times this year. Evidently, options traders think the Fed�s main > > concern is the risk of a credit crisis developing due to problems in > > the mortgage lending business. If such a crisis were to develop, > > economic growth would be reduced much more than otherwise. In the view > > of the options traders, the risks are clearly on the downside and the > > only sensible thing to do is reduce the rates. > > > > Many others are of the view, that the Fed is reasonably confident the > > problems in the mortgage sector will be contained and that inflation > > pressures are such that there is a need to raise interest rates or > > keep them at the present level to choke of incipient inflation > > pressures. To reduce the interest rates would be irresponsible and > > could reduce the credibility of the Fed as an inflation fighter. > > > > The Fed will likely reveal its intention at this weeks policy meeting. > > When and whatever it does, there is a real likelihood someone will > > not be too happy with its words or actions. According to the SAMVA USA > > chart, the stock market is predicted to weaken this Spring. One > > mechanism for that could be the decision taken by the Fed at the > > monetary policy meeting this week. The analysis or decision of the Fed > > could unnerve the market. In this regard, we can note that transit L8 > > Saturn will oppose both L10 Mars and natal L2 Sun at 24� Capricorn on > > March 21. Meanwhile, transit L1 Moon is conjunct Rahu in H10 and > > transit L2 Sun in H9 is still under the aspect of natal L6 Jupiter > in H5. > > > > We will soon see what happens. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Thor > > > > Fed May Lower Rates Three Times on Housing Woes, Options Show > > By Daniel Kruger > > > > March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are starting to say the > > Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the > > housing slump threatens the economy's growth. > > > > Options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a > > 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target rate for > > overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Just > > seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a > > reduction this year. > > > > Traders in options anticipate lower borrowing costs than economists or > > futures contracts, the most widely used barometer of Fed policy, amid > > increasing concerns about mortgage defaults. Futures show rates will > > fall to 4.75 percent by year-end and economists expect 5 percent, > > according to the median in a Bloomberg survey 73 forecasters from > > March 1 to March 7. > > > > ``The fear is it spills into the economy, it spills into the banking > > system and creates a credit crisis,'' said David Robin, an > > interest-rate strategist in New York who helps manage options trading > > for institutional clients at Fimat USA LLC, a unit of Societe Generale > > Group. > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > > > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn between > > > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > > > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > > > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > > > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another > > > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > > > valued stock market going forward. > > > > > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > > > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the > > > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > > > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is > > > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > > > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > > > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One > > > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > > > > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely > > > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may surprise the > > > market by raising interest rates... " > > > > > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of > > > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > > > positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines > > > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next > > > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope > > > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > > > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > > > By Courtney Schlisserman > > > > > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > > > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > > > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > > > > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > > > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > > > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 > > > percent higher than a year earlier. > > > > > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures make > > > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > > > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > > > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > > > meet next week. > > > > > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > > > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will > > > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > > > this point.'' > > > > > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, according > > > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates > > > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices were > > > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > > > > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield > > > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 > > > a.m. in New York. > > > > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted April 11, 2007 Report Share Posted April 11, 2007 Dear Thor, Thanks for the email on this and the other follow-ups. They add credibility to the chart. Best regards, Vyas Munidas - " cosmologer " <cosmologer <SAMVA > Wednesday, April 11, 2007 2:23 PM Re: USA - inflation pressure increases Dear list members, In early February, I wrote an article about Major Corrections on Wall Street, which contained an analysis of major stock market corrections in terms of the SAMVA USA chart. In that paper I suggested the Fed might raise interest rates this Spring and that this might spook the markets. After the Fed met on March 20-21, they decided not to raise the interest rates. At that time, I thought my comments about monetary policy were off the mark concerning the need to raise interest rates and said so on this list. The minutes of the March meeting of the Board of the Federal Reserve System have just now been released concerning the deliberations of the Board members on those days. I am surprised to see that the minutes actually lend support to my words. The Fed considers it a real possibility that interest rates need to be increased. As a result, the stock market has accelerated a moderate decline that begin this morning in the afternoon trading session. The Dow is presently down around 90 points at around 12493. Evidently, investors are not pleased to read about the Feds willingness to wringing any inflationary pressure out of the economy with higher interest rates, should it deem it necessary. In short, while I was wrong about the actual decision at that time, such an act was clearly being considered at that time and may possibly be taken later this year. Best wishes, Thor Fed Minutes Say Interest-Rate Increases May `Prove Necessary' By Scott Lanman April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials agreed higher interest rates could still ``prove necessary'' to control inflation even as they removed a reference in their statement to tighter credit because of increased economic risks. ``Further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower inflation,'' the Fed said in minutes of the Open Market Committee's March 20-21 meeting, released today in Washington. ``But in light of the increased uncertainty about the outlook for both growth and inflation, the committee also agreed that the statement should no longer cite only the possibility of further firming.'' http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aLhnu90TOGTw & refer=home SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <muni> wrote: > > Dear Thor, > > There are two schools of thought on the future of the US economy; but we can > examine the more likely one from the chart. > > The current transit situation indicates that there is no clear direction, > erring on the side of weakness. In a couple months when the negative > transits moderate, business as usual should prevail. > > Regarding USD and the SM indices, the economy that stops raising rates and > errs on the side of cutting them has better potential for growth vs those > which are just hitting their peak interest rates and deciding the next move. > With money being pulled out of foreign investments and back into the US, > local investing is likely. Players never like buying when something looks > toppy (DJIA for eg); this pullback and sideways market will arb out a bottom > and become attractive for new investments. > > Additionally, EUR/USD is the deepest currency. [This means that if you throw > 1billion at it in prime time, you won't get much movement either way (10 > pips max)]. There is large liquidity and only concerted efforts via clear > sentiment effects rallies or dips. So the point - a higher EUR value is NOT > desired by the EU bloc for trade reasons. This is detrimental to their > economics. I would expect the ECB (or their agents) to be here around 1.34 > buying USD in good quantity. USD/CHF will follow suit. GBP is the main carry > trade vehicle so don't expect a proper reflection there, at least not right > away. Noteable banks have been anticipating this level for USD buys. Let's > see how it plays out. > > > Best regards, > > Vyas Munidas > > > - > " cosmologer " <cosmologer > <SAMVA > > Wednesday, March 21, 2007 4:10 PM > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > Dear list members, > > My guess about the monetary policy of the US central bank was off the > mark. Contrary to my expectation, the policy makers acted in such a > way as to encourage market participants in the USA to invest in > stocks. That said, this guess work was not directly based on an > analysis of the transits and was thus perhaps not warranted. The real > analysis of the chart indicates only difficulties for the wealth and > disturbance in financial markets, as has stated in > his prediction. However, I was interested in more detail and to follow > the transits on a day-to-day basis. > > Whatever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of share prices > spiralled upwards, gaining almost 170 points or almost 1.5%, in the > final hours of trading following the decision by the Fed to keep the > policy interest rate at 5.25% while removing the " tightening bias " . > > Clearly, the market read the Fed statement in such a way that the > interest rates will likely come down sooner than later as a result of > increased concerns about the economy moving forward, due mainly price > declines and difficulties in several riskier asset classes. Lower > interest rates are seen to support the growth of earnings by the > companies and help the struggling mortgage market. > > However, please note that only one shoe has been dropped. The other > shoe, the reaction of international investors, has yet to drop. > Notably, this involves investors involved in the Yen carry trade. How > will they react to a change in expectations concerning the profile of > US interest rates having been shifted down for latter part of this > year? Todays events could be seen to make the carry trade less > lucrative, with then the dollar likely to weaken. We will soon see > their reaction when trading in Asia begins after the close of business > in the USA. That said, this is only speculation on my part as to how > the market becomes unnerved. > > As I mentioned earlier, the events of recent weeks has demonstrated > that there is considerable tension in the stock market. The investors > are moving from pessimism to optimism very quickly. In other words, > investors are highly uncertain of the prospects and behaving like a > nervous herd of cattle. As in nature, a sudden lightning with a loud > thunder clap may be enough to send the heard of investors stampeding > in frenzy over the cliff. > > Given the transits, we are expecting some sudden event to shake the > confidence of the investors. When and how that event shows up is still > anybodies guess. That said, the transits remain very difficult in the > SAMVA USA chart until mid May. A lot can happen between now and then > if the SAMVA USA chart is authentic, as I believe it is. > > Perhaps, I should not bother with trying to outguess the real events. > After all there is a saying that truth is sometimes stranger than > fiction. While I have had fun with trying to second guess the events, > perhaps such commentary is only serving to confuse matters for the > students of astrology. So, maybe, I will just have to be content to > wait for the end result and then pass judgement on the predictions and > the chart. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > > Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 5.25 Percent > AP - > > The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged Wednesday but > triggered a strong rally on Wall Street as investors took hope the > central bank might cut rates in the future. > > http://finance./ > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > Dear list members, > > > > The following news story says that options futures suggest interest > > rates are more likely than not to be reduced by the Federal Reserve > > three times this year. Evidently, options traders think the Fed�s main > > concern is the risk of a credit crisis developing due to problems in > > the mortgage lending business. If such a crisis were to develop, > > economic growth would be reduced much more than otherwise. In the view > > of the options traders, the risks are clearly on the downside and the > > only sensible thing to do is reduce the rates. > > > > Many others are of the view, that the Fed is reasonably confident the > > problems in the mortgage sector will be contained and that inflation > > pressures are such that there is a need to raise interest rates or > > keep them at the present level to choke of incipient inflation > > pressures. To reduce the interest rates would be irresponsible and > > could reduce the credibility of the Fed as an inflation fighter. > > > > The Fed will likely reveal its intention at this weeks policy meeting. > > When and whatever it does, there is a real likelihood someone will > > not be too happy with its words or actions. According to the SAMVA USA > > chart, the stock market is predicted to weaken this Spring. One > > mechanism for that could be the decision taken by the Fed at the > > monetary policy meeting this week. The analysis or decision of the Fed > > could unnerve the market. In this regard, we can note that transit L8 > > Saturn will oppose both L10 Mars and natal L2 Sun at 24� Capricorn on > > March 21. Meanwhile, transit L1 Moon is conjunct Rahu in H10 and > > transit L2 Sun in H9 is still under the aspect of natal L6 Jupiter > in H5. > > > > We will soon see what happens. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Thor > > > > Fed May Lower Rates Three Times on Housing Woes, Options Show > > By Daniel Kruger > > > > March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are starting to say the > > Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the > > housing slump threatens the economy's growth. > > > > Options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a > > 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target rate for > > overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Just > > seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a > > reduction this year. > > > > Traders in options anticipate lower borrowing costs than economists or > > futures contracts, the most widely used barometer of Fed policy, amid > > increasing concerns about mortgage defaults. Futures show rates will > > fall to 4.75 percent by year-end and economists expect 5 percent, > > according to the median in a Bloomberg survey 73 forecasters from > > March 1 to March 7. > > > > ``The fear is it spills into the economy, it spills into the banking > > system and creates a credit crisis,'' said David Robin, an > > interest-rate strategist in New York who helps manage options trading > > for institutional clients at Fimat USA LLC, a unit of Societe Generale > > Group. > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > > > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn between > > > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > > > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > > > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > > > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another > > > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > > > valued stock market going forward. > > > > > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > > > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the > > > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > > > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is > > > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > > > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > > > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One > > > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > > > > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely > > > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may surprise the > > > market by raising interest rates... " > > > > > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of > > > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > > > positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines > > > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next > > > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope > > > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > > > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > > > By Courtney Schlisserman > > > > > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > > > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > > > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > > > > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > > > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > > > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 > > > percent higher than a year earlier. > > > > > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures make > > > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > > > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > > > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > > > meet next week. > > > > > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > > > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will > > > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > > > this point.'' > > > > > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, according > > > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates > > > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices were > > > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > > > > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield > > > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 > > > a.m. in New York. > > > > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted May 9, 2007 Report Share Posted May 9, 2007 Dear friends, The US central bank, the Federal Reserve System, will today make a statement about monetary policy. The statement is quite important as it implies a decision to either keep interest rates at their present level (as most expect) or change them, which would alter investor expectations. The interesting thing in preparing for this decision, is the fact that senior officials of the Federal Reserve now admit that the last policy statement by the Fed was confusing to investors. As a result, the Fed will aim to become more readily understood. We will see how it goes and if some surprise is in store. I could note that there are two afflictions in the SAMVA USA chart which suggest manipulation by the authorities concerning monetary (and even financial) matters. These are: - aspect of Rahu on H10, H2, H4 and H6 - aspect of L8 Saturn on L2 Sun Of course, whenever manipulation takes place, there is a chance it may backfire in that it is exposed with adverse consequences. Best wishes, Thor Bernanke May Seek Clearer Rate Signal After Confusion (Update1) By Scott Lanman May 9 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may today seek a clearer signal on interest rates after confusing investors with the central bank's last policy statement. Bernanke and his colleagues are struggling to describe the potential course of rates as growth sputters and inflation hovers above the level officials would like. The Fed may today keep borrowing costs at 5.25 percent, and sharpen its statement to indicate policy makers still lean toward higher rates -- not the reductions traders saw immediately after the last meeting. Investors now expect the Fed to hold off on a rate cut until the fourth quarter, since Bernanke clarified that the central bank is still more focused on inflation. The Fed chief had to correct the impression of the March statement, which removed a warning of tighter policy. Fed President William Poole said last month the statement ``wasn't completely successful.'' ``They recognize that they didn't convey to markets what they intended,'' said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now senior economic adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington. ``There will be some subtle changes in language'' to emphasize that officials still see a pickup in the economy that may justify higher rates. SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <muni> wrote: > > Dear Thor, > > Thanks for the email on this and the other follow-ups. They add credibility > to the chart. > > > Best regards, > > Vyas Munidas > > > - > " cosmologer " <cosmologer > <SAMVA > > Wednesday, April 11, 2007 2:23 PM > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > Dear list members, > > In early February, I wrote an article about Major Corrections on Wall > Street, which contained an analysis of major stock market corrections > in terms of the SAMVA USA chart. In that paper I suggested the Fed > might raise interest rates this Spring and that this might spook the > markets. After the Fed met on March 20-21, they decided not to raise > the interest rates. At that time, I thought my comments about monetary > policy were off the mark concerning the need to raise interest rates > and said so on this list. The minutes of the March meeting of the > Board of the Federal Reserve System have just now been released > concerning the deliberations of the Board members on those days. I am > surprised to see that the minutes actually lend support to my words. > The Fed considers it a real possibility that interest rates need to be > increased. As a result, the stock market has accelerated a moderate > decline that begin this morning in the afternoon trading session. The > Dow is presently down around 90 points at around 12493. Evidently, > investors are not pleased to read about the Feds willingness to > wringing any inflationary pressure out of the economy with higher > interest rates, should it deem it necessary. In short, while I was > wrong about the actual decision at that time, such an act was clearly > being considered at that time and may possibly be taken later this year. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > Fed Minutes Say Interest-Rate Increases May `Prove Necessary' > By Scott Lanman > > April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials agreed higher > interest rates could still ``prove necessary'' to control inflation > even as they removed a reference in their statement to tighter credit > because of increased economic risks. > > ``Further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower > inflation,'' the Fed said in minutes of the Open Market Committee's > March 20-21 meeting, released today in Washington. ``But in light of > the increased uncertainty about the outlook for both growth and > inflation, the committee also agreed that the statement should no > longer cite only the possibility of further firming.'' > > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aLhnu90TOGTw & refer=home > > SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <munidas@> wrote: > > > > Dear Thor, > > > > There are two schools of thought on the future of the US economy; > but we can > > examine the more likely one from the chart. > > > > The current transit situation indicates that there is no clear > direction, > > erring on the side of weakness. In a couple months when the negative > > transits moderate, business as usual should prevail. > > > > Regarding USD and the SM indices, the economy that stops raising > rates and > > errs on the side of cutting them has better potential for growth vs > those > > which are just hitting their peak interest rates and deciding the > next move. > > With money being pulled out of foreign investments and back into the > US, > > local investing is likely. Players never like buying when something > looks > > toppy (DJIA for eg); this pullback and sideways market will arb out > a bottom > > and become attractive for new investments. > > > > Additionally, EUR/USD is the deepest currency. [This means that if > you throw > > 1billion at it in prime time, you won't get much movement either way > (10 > > pips max)]. There is large liquidity and only concerted efforts via > clear > > sentiment effects rallies or dips. So the point - a higher EUR value > is NOT > > desired by the EU bloc for trade reasons. This is detrimental to their > > economics. I would expect the ECB (or their agents) to be here > around 1.34 > > buying USD in good quantity. USD/CHF will follow suit. GBP is the > main carry > > trade vehicle so don't expect a proper reflection there, at least > not right > > away. Noteable banks have been anticipating this level for USD buys. > Let's > > see how it plays out. > > > > > > Best regards, > > > > Vyas Munidas > > > > > > - > > " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> > > <SAMVA > > > Wednesday, March 21, 2007 4:10 PM > > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > My guess about the monetary policy of the US central bank was off the > > mark. Contrary to my expectation, the policy makers acted in such a > > way as to encourage market participants in the USA to invest in > > stocks. That said, this guess work was not directly based on an > > analysis of the transits and was thus perhaps not warranted. The real > > analysis of the chart indicates only difficulties for the wealth and > > disturbance in financial markets, as has stated in > > his prediction. However, I was interested in more detail and to follow > > the transits on a day-to-day basis. > > > > Whatever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of share prices > > spiralled upwards, gaining almost 170 points or almost 1.5%, in the > > final hours of trading following the decision by the Fed to keep the > > policy interest rate at 5.25% while removing the " tightening bias " . > > > > Clearly, the market read the Fed statement in such a way that the > > interest rates will likely come down sooner than later as a result of > > increased concerns about the economy moving forward, due mainly price > > declines and difficulties in several riskier asset classes. Lower > > interest rates are seen to support the growth of earnings by the > > companies and help the struggling mortgage market. > > > > However, please note that only one shoe has been dropped. The other > > shoe, the reaction of international investors, has yet to drop. > > Notably, this involves investors involved in the Yen carry trade. How > > will they react to a change in expectations concerning the profile of > > US interest rates having been shifted down for latter part of this > > year? Todays events could be seen to make the carry trade less > > lucrative, with then the dollar likely to weaken. We will soon see > > their reaction when trading in Asia begins after the close of business > > in the USA. That said, this is only speculation on my part as to how > > the market becomes unnerved. > > > > As I mentioned earlier, the events of recent weeks has demonstrated > > that there is considerable tension in the stock market. The investors > > are moving from pessimism to optimism very quickly. In other words, > > investors are highly uncertain of the prospects and behaving like a > > nervous herd of cattle. As in nature, a sudden lightning with a loud > > thunder clap may be enough to send the heard of investors stampeding > > in frenzy over the cliff. > > > > Given the transits, we are expecting some sudden event to shake the > > confidence of the investors. When and how that event shows up is still > > anybodies guess. That said, the transits remain very difficult in the > > SAMVA USA chart until mid May. A lot can happen between now and then > > if the SAMVA USA chart is authentic, as I believe it is. > > > > Perhaps, I should not bother with trying to outguess the real events. > > After all there is a saying that truth is sometimes stranger than > > fiction. While I have had fun with trying to second guess the events, > > perhaps such commentary is only serving to confuse matters for the > > students of astrology. So, maybe, I will just have to be content to > > wait for the end result and then pass judgement on the predictions and > > the chart. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Thor > > > > > > Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 5.25 Percent > > AP - > > > > The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged Wednesday but > > triggered a strong rally on Wall Street as investors took hope the > > central bank might cut rates in the future. > > > > http://finance./ > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > The following news story says that options futures suggest interest > > > rates are more likely than not to be reduced by the Federal Reserve > > > three times this year. Evidently, options traders think the > Fed�s main > > > concern is the risk of a credit crisis developing due to problems in > > > the mortgage lending business. If such a crisis were to develop, > > > economic growth would be reduced much more than otherwise. In the view > > > of the options traders, the risks are clearly on the downside and the > > > only sensible thing to do is reduce the rates. > > > > > > Many others are of the view, that the Fed is reasonably confident the > > > problems in the mortgage sector will be contained and that inflation > > > pressures are such that there is a need to raise interest rates or > > > keep them at the present level to choke of incipient inflation > > > pressures. To reduce the interest rates would be irresponsible and > > > could reduce the credibility of the Fed as an inflation fighter. > > > > > > The Fed will likely reveal its intention at this weeks policy meeting. > > > When and whatever it does, there is a real likelihood someone will > > > not be too happy with its words or actions. According to the SAMVA USA > > > chart, the stock market is predicted to weaken this Spring. One > > > mechanism for that could be the decision taken by the Fed at the > > > monetary policy meeting this week. The analysis or decision of the Fed > > > could unnerve the market. In this regard, we can note that transit L8 > > > Saturn will oppose both L10 Mars and natal L2 Sun at 24� > Capricorn on > > > March 21. Meanwhile, transit L1 Moon is conjunct Rahu in H10 and > > > transit L2 Sun in H9 is still under the aspect of natal L6 Jupiter > > in H5. > > > > > > We will soon see what happens. > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > Fed May Lower Rates Three Times on Housing Woes, Options Show > > > By Daniel Kruger > > > > > > March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are starting to say the > > > Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the > > > housing slump threatens the economy's growth. > > > > > > Options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a > > > 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target rate for > > > overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Just > > > seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a > > > reduction this year. > > > > > > Traders in options anticipate lower borrowing costs than economists or > > > futures contracts, the most widely used barometer of Fed policy, amid > > > increasing concerns about mortgage defaults. Futures show rates will > > > fall to 4.75 percent by year-end and economists expect 5 percent, > > > according to the median in a Bloomberg survey 73 forecasters from > > > March 1 to March 7. > > > > > > ``The fear is it spills into the economy, it spills into the banking > > > system and creates a credit crisis,'' said David Robin, an > > > interest-rate strategist in New York who helps manage options trading > > > for institutional clients at Fimat USA LLC, a unit of Societe Generale > > > Group. > > > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > > > > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn > between > > > > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > > > > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > > > > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > > > > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another > > > > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > > > > valued stock market going forward. > > > > > > > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > > > > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the > > > > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > > > > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is > > > > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > > > > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > > > > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One > > > > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > > > > > > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely > > > > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may > surprise the > > > > market by raising interest rates... " > > > > > > > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of > > > > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > > > > positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines > > > > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next > > > > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope > > > > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > > > > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > > > > By Courtney Schlisserman > > > > > > > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > > > > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > > > > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > > > > > > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > > > > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > > > > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 > > > > percent higher than a year earlier. > > > > > > > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures > make > > > > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > > > > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > > > > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > > > > meet next week. > > > > > > > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > > > > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will > > > > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > > > > this point.'' > > > > > > > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, > according > > > > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. > Estimates > > > > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices > were > > > > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > > > > > > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield > > > > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 > > > > a.m. in New York. > > > > > > > > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted May 9, 2007 Report Share Posted May 9, 2007 Dear Thor, They have held the rate with a watchful eye for inflation concerns. The next meeting is in 1 month. I am bearish on USD overall. The summer range play is at hand. Best regards, Vyas Munidas - " cosmologer " <cosmologer <SAMVA > Wednesday, May 09, 2007 1:35 PM Re: USA - inflation pressure increases Dear friends, The US central bank, the Federal Reserve System, will today make a statement about monetary policy. The statement is quite important as it implies a decision to either keep interest rates at their present level (as most expect) or change them, which would alter investor expectations. The interesting thing in preparing for this decision, is the fact that senior officials of the Federal Reserve now admit that the last policy statement by the Fed was confusing to investors. As a result, the Fed will aim to become more readily understood. We will see how it goes and if some surprise is in store. I could note that there are two afflictions in the SAMVA USA chart which suggest manipulation by the authorities concerning monetary (and even financial) matters. These are: - aspect of Rahu on H10, H2, H4 and H6 - aspect of L8 Saturn on L2 Sun Of course, whenever manipulation takes place, there is a chance it may backfire in that it is exposed with adverse consequences. Best wishes, Thor Bernanke May Seek Clearer Rate Signal After Confusion (Update1) By Scott Lanman May 9 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may today seek a clearer signal on interest rates after confusing investors with the central bank's last policy statement. Bernanke and his colleagues are struggling to describe the potential course of rates as growth sputters and inflation hovers above the level officials would like. The Fed may today keep borrowing costs at 5.25 percent, and sharpen its statement to indicate policy makers still lean toward higher rates -- not the reductions traders saw immediately after the last meeting. Investors now expect the Fed to hold off on a rate cut until the fourth quarter, since Bernanke clarified that the central bank is still more focused on inflation. The Fed chief had to correct the impression of the March statement, which removed a warning of tighter policy. Fed President William Poole said last month the statement ``wasn't completely successful.'' ``They recognize that they didn't convey to markets what they intended,'' said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now senior economic adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington. ``There will be some subtle changes in language'' to emphasize that officials still see a pickup in the economy that may justify higher rates. SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <muni> wrote: > > Dear Thor, > > Thanks for the email on this and the other follow-ups. They add credibility > to the chart. > > > Best regards, > > Vyas Munidas > > > - > " cosmologer " <cosmologer > <SAMVA > > Wednesday, April 11, 2007 2:23 PM > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > Dear list members, > > In early February, I wrote an article about Major Corrections on Wall > Street, which contained an analysis of major stock market corrections > in terms of the SAMVA USA chart. In that paper I suggested the Fed > might raise interest rates this Spring and that this might spook the > markets. After the Fed met on March 20-21, they decided not to raise > the interest rates. At that time, I thought my comments about monetary > policy were off the mark concerning the need to raise interest rates > and said so on this list. The minutes of the March meeting of the > Board of the Federal Reserve System have just now been released > concerning the deliberations of the Board members on those days. I am > surprised to see that the minutes actually lend support to my words. > The Fed considers it a real possibility that interest rates need to be > increased. As a result, the stock market has accelerated a moderate > decline that begin this morning in the afternoon trading session. The > Dow is presently down around 90 points at around 12493. Evidently, > investors are not pleased to read about the Feds willingness to > wringing any inflationary pressure out of the economy with higher > interest rates, should it deem it necessary. In short, while I was > wrong about the actual decision at that time, such an act was clearly > being considered at that time and may possibly be taken later this year. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > Fed Minutes Say Interest-Rate Increases May `Prove Necessary' > By Scott Lanman > > April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials agreed higher > interest rates could still ``prove necessary'' to control inflation > even as they removed a reference in their statement to tighter credit > because of increased economic risks. > > ``Further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower > inflation,'' the Fed said in minutes of the Open Market Committee's > March 20-21 meeting, released today in Washington. ``But in light of > the increased uncertainty about the outlook for both growth and > inflation, the committee also agreed that the statement should no > longer cite only the possibility of further firming.'' > > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aLhnu90TOGTw & refer=home > > SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <munidas@> wrote: > > > > Dear Thor, > > > > There are two schools of thought on the future of the US economy; > but we can > > examine the more likely one from the chart. > > > > The current transit situation indicates that there is no clear > direction, > > erring on the side of weakness. In a couple months when the negative > > transits moderate, business as usual should prevail. > > > > Regarding USD and the SM indices, the economy that stops raising > rates and > > errs on the side of cutting them has better potential for growth vs > those > > which are just hitting their peak interest rates and deciding the > next move. > > With money being pulled out of foreign investments and back into the > US, > > local investing is likely. Players never like buying when something > looks > > toppy (DJIA for eg); this pullback and sideways market will arb out > a bottom > > and become attractive for new investments. > > > > Additionally, EUR/USD is the deepest currency. [This means that if > you throw > > 1billion at it in prime time, you won't get much movement either way > (10 > > pips max)]. There is large liquidity and only concerted efforts via > clear > > sentiment effects rallies or dips. So the point - a higher EUR value > is NOT > > desired by the EU bloc for trade reasons. This is detrimental to their > > economics. I would expect the ECB (or their agents) to be here > around 1.34 > > buying USD in good quantity. USD/CHF will follow suit. GBP is the > main carry > > trade vehicle so don't expect a proper reflection there, at least > not right > > away. Noteable banks have been anticipating this level for USD buys. > Let's > > see how it plays out. > > > > > > Best regards, > > > > Vyas Munidas > > > > > > - > > " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> > > <SAMVA > > > Wednesday, March 21, 2007 4:10 PM > > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > My guess about the monetary policy of the US central bank was off the > > mark. Contrary to my expectation, the policy makers acted in such a > > way as to encourage market participants in the USA to invest in > > stocks. That said, this guess work was not directly based on an > > analysis of the transits and was thus perhaps not warranted. The real > > analysis of the chart indicates only difficulties for the wealth and > > disturbance in financial markets, as has stated in > > his prediction. However, I was interested in more detail and to follow > > the transits on a day-to-day basis. > > > > Whatever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of share prices > > spiralled upwards, gaining almost 170 points or almost 1.5%, in the > > final hours of trading following the decision by the Fed to keep the > > policy interest rate at 5.25% while removing the " tightening bias " . > > > > Clearly, the market read the Fed statement in such a way that the > > interest rates will likely come down sooner than later as a result of > > increased concerns about the economy moving forward, due mainly price > > declines and difficulties in several riskier asset classes. Lower > > interest rates are seen to support the growth of earnings by the > > companies and help the struggling mortgage market. > > > > However, please note that only one shoe has been dropped. The other > > shoe, the reaction of international investors, has yet to drop. > > Notably, this involves investors involved in the Yen carry trade. How > > will they react to a change in expectations concerning the profile of > > US interest rates having been shifted down for latter part of this > > year? Todays events could be seen to make the carry trade less > > lucrative, with then the dollar likely to weaken. We will soon see > > their reaction when trading in Asia begins after the close of business > > in the USA. That said, this is only speculation on my part as to how > > the market becomes unnerved. > > > > As I mentioned earlier, the events of recent weeks has demonstrated > > that there is considerable tension in the stock market. The investors > > are moving from pessimism to optimism very quickly. In other words, > > investors are highly uncertain of the prospects and behaving like a > > nervous herd of cattle. As in nature, a sudden lightning with a loud > > thunder clap may be enough to send the heard of investors stampeding > > in frenzy over the cliff. > > > > Given the transits, we are expecting some sudden event to shake the > > confidence of the investors. When and how that event shows up is still > > anybodies guess. That said, the transits remain very difficult in the > > SAMVA USA chart until mid May. A lot can happen between now and then > > if the SAMVA USA chart is authentic, as I believe it is. > > > > Perhaps, I should not bother with trying to outguess the real events. > > After all there is a saying that truth is sometimes stranger than > > fiction. While I have had fun with trying to second guess the events, > > perhaps such commentary is only serving to confuse matters for the > > students of astrology. So, maybe, I will just have to be content to > > wait for the end result and then pass judgement on the predictions and > > the chart. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Thor > > > > > > Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 5.25 Percent > > AP - > > > > The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged Wednesday but > > triggered a strong rally on Wall Street as investors took hope the > > central bank might cut rates in the future. > > > > http://finance./ > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > The following news story says that options futures suggest interest > > > rates are more likely than not to be reduced by the Federal Reserve > > > three times this year. Evidently, options traders think the > Fed�s main > > > concern is the risk of a credit crisis developing due to problems in > > > the mortgage lending business. If such a crisis were to develop, > > > economic growth would be reduced much more than otherwise. In the view > > > of the options traders, the risks are clearly on the downside and the > > > only sensible thing to do is reduce the rates. > > > > > > Many others are of the view, that the Fed is reasonably confident the > > > problems in the mortgage sector will be contained and that inflation > > > pressures are such that there is a need to raise interest rates or > > > keep them at the present level to choke of incipient inflation > > > pressures. To reduce the interest rates would be irresponsible and > > > could reduce the credibility of the Fed as an inflation fighter. > > > > > > The Fed will likely reveal its intention at this weeks policy meeting. > > > When and whatever it does, there is a real likelihood someone will > > > not be too happy with its words or actions. According to the SAMVA USA > > > chart, the stock market is predicted to weaken this Spring. One > > > mechanism for that could be the decision taken by the Fed at the > > > monetary policy meeting this week. The analysis or decision of the Fed > > > could unnerve the market. In this regard, we can note that transit L8 > > > Saturn will oppose both L10 Mars and natal L2 Sun at 24� > Capricorn on > > > March 21. Meanwhile, transit L1 Moon is conjunct Rahu in H10 and > > > transit L2 Sun in H9 is still under the aspect of natal L6 Jupiter > > in H5. > > > > > > We will soon see what happens. > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > Fed May Lower Rates Three Times on Housing Woes, Options Show > > > By Daniel Kruger > > > > > > March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are starting to say the > > > Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the > > > housing slump threatens the economy's growth. > > > > > > Options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a > > > 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target rate for > > > overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Just > > > seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a > > > reduction this year. > > > > > > Traders in options anticipate lower borrowing costs than economists or > > > futures contracts, the most widely used barometer of Fed policy, amid > > > increasing concerns about mortgage defaults. Futures show rates will > > > fall to 4.75 percent by year-end and economists expect 5 percent, > > > according to the median in a Bloomberg survey 73 forecasters from > > > March 1 to March 7. > > > > > > ``The fear is it spills into the economy, it spills into the banking > > > system and creates a credit crisis,'' said David Robin, an > > > interest-rate strategist in New York who helps manage options trading > > > for institutional clients at Fimat USA LLC, a unit of Societe Generale > > > Group. > > > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > > > > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn > between > > > > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > > > > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > > > > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > > > > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another > > > > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > > > > valued stock market going forward. > > > > > > > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > > > > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the > > > > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > > > > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is > > > > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > > > > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > > > > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One > > > > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > > > > > > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely > > > > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may > surprise the > > > > market by raising interest rates... " > > > > > > > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of > > > > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > > > > positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines > > > > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next > > > > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope > > > > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > > > > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > > > > By Courtney Schlisserman > > > > > > > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > > > > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > > > > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > > > > > > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > > > > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > > > > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 > > > > percent higher than a year earlier. > > > > > > > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures > make > > > > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > > > > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > > > > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > > > > meet next week. > > > > > > > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > > > > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will > > > > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > > > > this point.'' > > > > > > > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, > according > > > > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. > Estimates > > > > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices > were > > > > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > > > > > > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield > > > > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 > > > > a.m. in New York. > > > > > > > > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted May 9, 2007 Report Share Posted May 9, 2007 Dear Vyas, No change in the rate or the posture. In other words, no surprise. The market likes the news. The Dow surged up by 50 points on the announcement, and is now at 13,358. Best wishes, Thor The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent. Economic growth slowed in the first part of this year and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters. Core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures. In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <muni> wrote: > > Dear Thor, > > They have held the rate with a watchful eye for inflation concerns. The next > meeting is in 1 month. > > I am bearish on USD overall. The summer range play is at hand. > > > Best regards, > > Vyas Munidas > > > - > " cosmologer " <cosmologer > <SAMVA > > Wednesday, May 09, 2007 1:35 PM > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > Dear friends, > > The US central bank, the Federal Reserve System, will today make a > statement about monetary policy. The statement is quite important as > it implies a decision to either keep interest rates at their present > level (as most expect) or change them, which would alter investor > expectations. > > The interesting thing in preparing for this decision, is the fact that > senior officials of the Federal Reserve now admit that the last policy > statement by the Fed was confusing to investors. As a result, the Fed > will aim to become more readily understood. We will see how it goes > and if some surprise is in store. > > I could note that there are two afflictions in the SAMVA USA chart > which suggest manipulation by the authorities concerning monetary (and > even financial) matters. These are: > > - aspect of Rahu on H10, H2, H4 and H6 > - aspect of L8 Saturn on L2 Sun > > Of course, whenever manipulation takes place, there is a chance it may > backfire in that it is exposed with adverse consequences. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > > Bernanke May Seek Clearer Rate Signal After Confusion (Update1) > By Scott Lanman > > May 9 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may > today seek a clearer signal on interest rates after confusing > investors with the central bank's last policy statement. > > Bernanke and his colleagues are struggling to describe the potential > course of rates as growth sputters and inflation hovers above the > level officials would like. The Fed may today keep borrowing costs at > 5.25 percent, and sharpen its statement to indicate policy makers > still lean toward higher rates -- not the reductions traders saw > immediately after the last meeting. > > Investors now expect the Fed to hold off on a rate cut until the > fourth quarter, since Bernanke clarified that the central bank is > still more focused on inflation. The Fed chief had to correct the > impression of the March statement, which removed a warning of tighter > policy. Fed President William Poole said last month the statement > ``wasn't completely successful.'' > > ``They recognize that they didn't convey to markets what they > intended,'' said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now senior economic > adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington. ``There will be some > subtle changes in language'' to emphasize that officials still see a > pickup in the economy that may justify higher rates. > > > SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <munidas@> wrote: > > > > Dear Thor, > > > > Thanks for the email on this and the other follow-ups. They add > credibility > > to the chart. > > > > > > Best regards, > > > > Vyas Munidas > > > > > > - > > " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> > > <SAMVA > > > Wednesday, April 11, 2007 2:23 PM > > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > In early February, I wrote an article about Major Corrections on Wall > > Street, which contained an analysis of major stock market corrections > > in terms of the SAMVA USA chart. In that paper I suggested the Fed > > might raise interest rates this Spring and that this might spook the > > markets. After the Fed met on March 20-21, they decided not to raise > > the interest rates. At that time, I thought my comments about monetary > > policy were off the mark concerning the need to raise interest rates > > and said so on this list. The minutes of the March meeting of the > > Board of the Federal Reserve System have just now been released > > concerning the deliberations of the Board members on those days. I am > > surprised to see that the minutes actually lend support to my words. > > The Fed considers it a real possibility that interest rates need to be > > increased. As a result, the stock market has accelerated a moderate > > decline that begin this morning in the afternoon trading session. The > > Dow is presently down around 90 points at around 12493. Evidently, > > investors are not pleased to read about the Feds willingness to > > wringing any inflationary pressure out of the economy with higher > > interest rates, should it deem it necessary. In short, while I was > > wrong about the actual decision at that time, such an act was clearly > > being considered at that time and may possibly be taken later this year. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Thor > > > > Fed Minutes Say Interest-Rate Increases May `Prove Necessary' > > By Scott Lanman > > > > April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials agreed higher > > interest rates could still ``prove necessary'' to control inflation > > even as they removed a reference in their statement to tighter credit > > because of increased economic risks. > > > > ``Further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower > > inflation,'' the Fed said in minutes of the Open Market Committee's > > March 20-21 meeting, released today in Washington. ``But in light of > > the increased uncertainty about the outlook for both growth and > > inflation, the committee also agreed that the statement should no > > longer cite only the possibility of further firming.'' > > > > > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aLhnu90TOGTw & refer=home > > > > SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <munidas@> wrote: > > > > > > Dear Thor, > > > > > > There are two schools of thought on the future of the US economy; > > but we can > > > examine the more likely one from the chart. > > > > > > The current transit situation indicates that there is no clear > > direction, > > > erring on the side of weakness. In a couple months when the negative > > > transits moderate, business as usual should prevail. > > > > > > Regarding USD and the SM indices, the economy that stops raising > > rates and > > > errs on the side of cutting them has better potential for growth vs > > those > > > which are just hitting their peak interest rates and deciding the > > next move. > > > With money being pulled out of foreign investments and back into the > > US, > > > local investing is likely. Players never like buying when something > > looks > > > toppy (DJIA for eg); this pullback and sideways market will arb out > > a bottom > > > and become attractive for new investments. > > > > > > Additionally, EUR/USD is the deepest currency. [This means that if > > you throw > > > 1billion at it in prime time, you won't get much movement either way > > (10 > > > pips max)]. There is large liquidity and only concerted efforts via > > clear > > > sentiment effects rallies or dips. So the point - a higher EUR value > > is NOT > > > desired by the EU bloc for trade reasons. This is detrimental to their > > > economics. I would expect the ECB (or their agents) to be here > > around 1.34 > > > buying USD in good quantity. USD/CHF will follow suit. GBP is the > > main carry > > > trade vehicle so don't expect a proper reflection there, at least > > not right > > > away. Noteable banks have been anticipating this level for USD buys. > > Let's > > > see how it plays out. > > > > > > > > > Best regards, > > > > > > Vyas Munidas > > > > > > > > > - > > > " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> > > > <SAMVA > > > > Wednesday, March 21, 2007 4:10 PM > > > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > My guess about the monetary policy of the US central bank was off the > > > mark. Contrary to my expectation, the policy makers acted in such a > > > way as to encourage market participants in the USA to invest in > > > stocks. That said, this guess work was not directly based on an > > > analysis of the transits and was thus perhaps not warranted. The real > > > analysis of the chart indicates only difficulties for the wealth and > > > disturbance in financial markets, as has stated in > > > his prediction. However, I was interested in more detail and to follow > > > the transits on a day-to-day basis. > > > > > > Whatever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of share prices > > > spiralled upwards, gaining almost 170 points or almost 1.5%, in the > > > final hours of trading following the decision by the Fed to keep the > > > policy interest rate at 5.25% while removing the " tightening bias " . > > > > > > Clearly, the market read the Fed statement in such a way that the > > > interest rates will likely come down sooner than later as a result of > > > increased concerns about the economy moving forward, due mainly price > > > declines and difficulties in several riskier asset classes. Lower > > > interest rates are seen to support the growth of earnings by the > > > companies and help the struggling mortgage market. > > > > > > However, please note that only one shoe has been dropped. The other > > > shoe, the reaction of international investors, has yet to drop. > > > Notably, this involves investors involved in the Yen carry trade. How > > > will they react to a change in expectations concerning the profile of > > > US interest rates having been shifted down for latter part of this > > > year? Todays events could be seen to make the carry trade less > > > lucrative, with then the dollar likely to weaken. We will soon see > > > their reaction when trading in Asia begins after the close of business > > > in the USA. That said, this is only speculation on my part as to how > > > the market becomes unnerved. > > > > > > As I mentioned earlier, the events of recent weeks has demonstrated > > > that there is considerable tension in the stock market. The investors > > > are moving from pessimism to optimism very quickly. In other words, > > > investors are highly uncertain of the prospects and behaving like a > > > nervous herd of cattle. As in nature, a sudden lightning with a loud > > > thunder clap may be enough to send the heard of investors stampeding > > > in frenzy over the cliff. > > > > > > Given the transits, we are expecting some sudden event to shake the > > > confidence of the investors. When and how that event shows up is still > > > anybodies guess. That said, the transits remain very difficult in the > > > SAMVA USA chart until mid May. A lot can happen between now and then > > > if the SAMVA USA chart is authentic, as I believe it is. > > > > > > Perhaps, I should not bother with trying to outguess the real events. > > > After all there is a saying that truth is sometimes stranger than > > > fiction. While I have had fun with trying to second guess the events, > > > perhaps such commentary is only serving to confuse matters for the > > > students of astrology. So, maybe, I will just have to be content to > > > wait for the end result and then pass judgement on the predictions and > > > the chart. > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > > > > Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 5.25 Percent > > > AP - > > > > > > The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged Wednesday but > > > triggered a strong rally on Wall Street as investors took hope the > > > central bank might cut rates in the future. > > > > > > http://finance./ > > > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > > > The following news story says that options futures suggest interest > > > > rates are more likely than not to be reduced by the Federal Reserve > > > > three times this year. Evidently, options traders think the > > Fed�s main > > > > concern is the risk of a credit crisis developing due to problems in > > > > the mortgage lending business. If such a crisis were to develop, > > > > economic growth would be reduced much more than otherwise. In > the view > > > > of the options traders, the risks are clearly on the downside > and the > > > > only sensible thing to do is reduce the rates. > > > > > > > > Many others are of the view, that the Fed is reasonably > confident the > > > > problems in the mortgage sector will be contained and that inflation > > > > pressures are such that there is a need to raise interest rates or > > > > keep them at the present level to choke of incipient inflation > > > > pressures. To reduce the interest rates would be irresponsible and > > > > could reduce the credibility of the Fed as an inflation fighter. > > > > > > > > The Fed will likely reveal its intention at this weeks policy > meeting. > > > > When and whatever it does, there is a real likelihood someone will > > > > not be too happy with its words or actions. According to the > SAMVA USA > > > > chart, the stock market is predicted to weaken this Spring. One > > > > mechanism for that could be the decision taken by the Fed at the > > > > monetary policy meeting this week. The analysis or decision of > the Fed > > > > could unnerve the market. In this regard, we can note that > transit L8 > > > > Saturn will oppose both L10 Mars and natal L2 Sun at 24� > > Capricorn on > > > > March 21. Meanwhile, transit L1 Moon is conjunct Rahu in H10 and > > > > transit L2 Sun in H9 is still under the aspect of natal L6 Jupiter > > > in H5. > > > > > > > > We will soon see what happens. > > > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > > > Fed May Lower Rates Three Times on Housing Woes, Options Show > > > > By Daniel Kruger > > > > > > > > March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are starting to say the > > > > Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the > > > > housing slump threatens the economy's growth. > > > > > > > > Options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a > > > > 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target > rate for > > > > overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Just > > > > seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a > > > > reduction this year. > > > > > > > > Traders in options anticipate lower borrowing costs than > economists or > > > > futures contracts, the most widely used barometer of Fed policy, > amid > > > > increasing concerns about mortgage defaults. Futures show rates will > > > > fall to 4.75 percent by year-end and economists expect 5 percent, > > > > according to the median in a Bloomberg survey 73 forecasters from > > > > March 1 to March 7. > > > > > > > > ``The fear is it spills into the economy, it spills into the banking > > > > system and creates a credit crisis,'' said David Robin, an > > > > interest-rate strategist in New York who helps manage options > trading > > > > for institutional clients at Fimat USA LLC, a unit of Societe > Generale > > > > Group. > > > > > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > > > > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > > > > > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn > > between > > > > > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > > > > > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > > > > > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > > > > > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is > another > > > > > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > > > > > valued stock market going forward. > > > > > > > > > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > > > > > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section > of the > > > > > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > > > > > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a > decline is > > > > > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > > > > > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > > > > > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial > market. One > > > > > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > > > > > > > > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not > unlikely > > > > > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may > > surprise the > > > > > market by raising interest rates... " > > > > > > > > > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the > Bank of > > > > > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > > > > > positions in the West. This was an important element in the > declines > > > > > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides > next > > > > > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a > tightrope > > > > > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > > > > > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > > > > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > > > > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > > > > > By Courtney Schlisserman > > > > > > > > > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > > > > > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > > > > > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > > > > > > > > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > > > > > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > > > > > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and > were 2.7 > > > > > percent higher than a year earlier. > > > > > > > > > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures > > make > > > > > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > > > > > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > > > > > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > > > > > meet next week. > > > > > > > > > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > > > > > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This > will > > > > > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > > > > > this point.'' > > > > > > > > > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, > > according > > > > > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. > > Estimates > > > > > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices > > were > > > > > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > > > > > > > > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the > yield > > > > > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 > percent at 9 > > > > > a.m. in New York. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted May 10, 2007 Report Share Posted May 10, 2007 Dear Thor (and List), USD has moved positively since this development. **************** My latest view on USD: Thursday, May 10, 2007 8:38 AM USD should trend positively this month. 3370 EURO and 3180 are key targets. The latter, if seen, will inspire a deeper correction towards 3080 and beneath is 2935 on the very wide shot **************** (typo: beneath in yesterday's post, should have read as bullish vs bearish - big difference!) **************** My latest view on GOLD: There should be a better demand for GOLD around the middle of the month. Good buys in the 645/50 region if it goes that low. **************** The astrological justifications for this gold view: The Sun is in a non-MTH, and starts to move towards better strength from mid-month. The Sun and Ju will oppose each other; both are general significators of GOLD. Both these planets will be free from the influence of others. Best regards, Vyas Munidas - " Vyas Munidas " <muni> <SAMVA > Wednesday, May 09, 2007 2:24 PM Re: Re: USA - inflation pressure increases Dear Thor, They have held the rate with a watchful eye for inflation concerns. The next meeting is in 1 month. I am bearish on USD overall. The summer range play is at hand. Best regards, Vyas Munidas - " cosmologer " <cosmologer <SAMVA > Wednesday, May 09, 2007 1:35 PM Re: USA - inflation pressure increases Dear friends, The US central bank, the Federal Reserve System, will today make a statement about monetary policy. The statement is quite important as it implies a decision to either keep interest rates at their present level (as most expect) or change them, which would alter investor expectations. The interesting thing in preparing for this decision, is the fact that senior officials of the Federal Reserve now admit that the last policy statement by the Fed was confusing to investors. As a result, the Fed will aim to become more readily understood. We will see how it goes and if some surprise is in store. I could note that there are two afflictions in the SAMVA USA chart which suggest manipulation by the authorities concerning monetary (and even financial) matters. These are: - aspect of Rahu on H10, H2, H4 and H6 - aspect of L8 Saturn on L2 Sun Of course, whenever manipulation takes place, there is a chance it may backfire in that it is exposed with adverse consequences. Best wishes, Thor Bernanke May Seek Clearer Rate Signal After Confusion (Update1) By Scott Lanman May 9 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may today seek a clearer signal on interest rates after confusing investors with the central bank's last policy statement. Bernanke and his colleagues are struggling to describe the potential course of rates as growth sputters and inflation hovers above the level officials would like. The Fed may today keep borrowing costs at 5.25 percent, and sharpen its statement to indicate policy makers still lean toward higher rates -- not the reductions traders saw immediately after the last meeting. Investors now expect the Fed to hold off on a rate cut until the fourth quarter, since Bernanke clarified that the central bank is still more focused on inflation. The Fed chief had to correct the impression of the March statement, which removed a warning of tighter policy. Fed President William Poole said last month the statement ``wasn't completely successful.'' ``They recognize that they didn't convey to markets what they intended,'' said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now senior economic adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington. ``There will be some subtle changes in language'' to emphasize that officials still see a pickup in the economy that may justify higher rates. SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <muni> wrote: > > Dear Thor, > > Thanks for the email on this and the other follow-ups. They add credibility > to the chart. > > > Best regards, > > Vyas Munidas > > > - > " cosmologer " <cosmologer > <SAMVA > > Wednesday, April 11, 2007 2:23 PM > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > Dear list members, > > In early February, I wrote an article about Major Corrections on Wall > Street, which contained an analysis of major stock market corrections > in terms of the SAMVA USA chart. In that paper I suggested the Fed > might raise interest rates this Spring and that this might spook the > markets. After the Fed met on March 20-21, they decided not to raise > the interest rates. At that time, I thought my comments about monetary > policy were off the mark concerning the need to raise interest rates > and said so on this list. The minutes of the March meeting of the > Board of the Federal Reserve System have just now been released > concerning the deliberations of the Board members on those days. I am > surprised to see that the minutes actually lend support to my words. > The Fed considers it a real possibility that interest rates need to be > increased. As a result, the stock market has accelerated a moderate > decline that begin this morning in the afternoon trading session. The > Dow is presently down around 90 points at around 12493. Evidently, > investors are not pleased to read about the Feds willingness to > wringing any inflationary pressure out of the economy with higher > interest rates, should it deem it necessary. In short, while I was > wrong about the actual decision at that time, such an act was clearly > being considered at that time and may possibly be taken later this year. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > Fed Minutes Say Interest-Rate Increases May `Prove Necessary' > By Scott Lanman > > April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials agreed higher > interest rates could still ``prove necessary'' to control inflation > even as they removed a reference in their statement to tighter credit > because of increased economic risks. > > ``Further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower > inflation,'' the Fed said in minutes of the Open Market Committee's > March 20-21 meeting, released today in Washington. ``But in light of > the increased uncertainty about the outlook for both growth and > inflation, the committee also agreed that the statement should no > longer cite only the possibility of further firming.'' > > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aLhnu90TOGTw & refer=home > > SAMVA , " Vyas Munidas " <munidas@> wrote: > > > > Dear Thor, > > > > There are two schools of thought on the future of the US economy; > but we can > > examine the more likely one from the chart. > > > > The current transit situation indicates that there is no clear > direction, > > erring on the side of weakness. In a couple months when the negative > > transits moderate, business as usual should prevail. > > > > Regarding USD and the SM indices, the economy that stops raising > rates and > > errs on the side of cutting them has better potential for growth vs > those > > which are just hitting their peak interest rates and deciding the > next move. > > With money being pulled out of foreign investments and back into the > US, > > local investing is likely. Players never like buying when something > looks > > toppy (DJIA for eg); this pullback and sideways market will arb out > a bottom > > and become attractive for new investments. > > > > Additionally, EUR/USD is the deepest currency. [This means that if > you throw > > 1billion at it in prime time, you won't get much movement either way > (10 > > pips max)]. There is large liquidity and only concerted efforts via > clear > > sentiment effects rallies or dips. So the point - a higher EUR value > is NOT > > desired by the EU bloc for trade reasons. This is detrimental to their > > economics. I would expect the ECB (or their agents) to be here > around 1.34 > > buying USD in good quantity. USD/CHF will follow suit. GBP is the > main carry > > trade vehicle so don't expect a proper reflection there, at least > not right > > away. Noteable banks have been anticipating this level for USD buys. > Let's > > see how it plays out. > > > > > > Best regards, > > > > Vyas Munidas > > > > > > - > > " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> > > <SAMVA > > > Wednesday, March 21, 2007 4:10 PM > > Re: USA - inflation pressure increases > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > My guess about the monetary policy of the US central bank was off the > > mark. Contrary to my expectation, the policy makers acted in such a > > way as to encourage market participants in the USA to invest in > > stocks. That said, this guess work was not directly based on an > > analysis of the transits and was thus perhaps not warranted. The real > > analysis of the chart indicates only difficulties for the wealth and > > disturbance in financial markets, as has stated in > > his prediction. However, I was interested in more detail and to follow > > the transits on a day-to-day basis. > > > > Whatever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of share prices > > spiralled upwards, gaining almost 170 points or almost 1.5%, in the > > final hours of trading following the decision by the Fed to keep the > > policy interest rate at 5.25% while removing the " tightening bias " . > > > > Clearly, the market read the Fed statement in such a way that the > > interest rates will likely come down sooner than later as a result of > > increased concerns about the economy moving forward, due mainly price > > declines and difficulties in several riskier asset classes. Lower > > interest rates are seen to support the growth of earnings by the > > companies and help the struggling mortgage market. > > > > However, please note that only one shoe has been dropped. The other > > shoe, the reaction of international investors, has yet to drop. > > Notably, this involves investors involved in the Yen carry trade. How > > will they react to a change in expectations concerning the profile of > > US interest rates having been shifted down for latter part of this > > year? Todays events could be seen to make the carry trade less > > lucrative, with then the dollar likely to weaken. We will soon see > > their reaction when trading in Asia begins after the close of business > > in the USA. That said, this is only speculation on my part as to how > > the market becomes unnerved. > > > > As I mentioned earlier, the events of recent weeks has demonstrated > > that there is considerable tension in the stock market. The investors > > are moving from pessimism to optimism very quickly. In other words, > > investors are highly uncertain of the prospects and behaving like a > > nervous herd of cattle. As in nature, a sudden lightning with a loud > > thunder clap may be enough to send the heard of investors stampeding > > in frenzy over the cliff. > > > > Given the transits, we are expecting some sudden event to shake the > > confidence of the investors. When and how that event shows up is still > > anybodies guess. That said, the transits remain very difficult in the > > SAMVA USA chart until mid May. A lot can happen between now and then > > if the SAMVA USA chart is authentic, as I believe it is. > > > > Perhaps, I should not bother with trying to outguess the real events. > > After all there is a saying that truth is sometimes stranger than > > fiction. While I have had fun with trying to second guess the events, > > perhaps such commentary is only serving to confuse matters for the > > students of astrology. So, maybe, I will just have to be content to > > wait for the end result and then pass judgement on the predictions and > > the chart. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Thor > > > > > > Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 5.25 Percent > > AP - > > > > The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged Wednesday but > > triggered a strong rally on Wall Street as investors took hope the > > central bank might cut rates in the future. > > > > http://finance./ > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > The following news story says that options futures suggest interest > > > rates are more likely than not to be reduced by the Federal Reserve > > > three times this year. Evidently, options traders think the > Fed�s main > > > concern is the risk of a credit crisis developing due to problems in > > > the mortgage lending business. If such a crisis were to develop, > > > economic growth would be reduced much more than otherwise. In the view > > > of the options traders, the risks are clearly on the downside and the > > > only sensible thing to do is reduce the rates. > > > > > > Many others are of the view, that the Fed is reasonably confident the > > > problems in the mortgage sector will be contained and that inflation > > > pressures are such that there is a need to raise interest rates or > > > keep them at the present level to choke of incipient inflation > > > pressures. To reduce the interest rates would be irresponsible and > > > could reduce the credibility of the Fed as an inflation fighter. > > > > > > The Fed will likely reveal its intention at this weeks policy meeting. > > > When and whatever it does, there is a real likelihood someone will > > > not be too happy with its words or actions. According to the SAMVA USA > > > chart, the stock market is predicted to weaken this Spring. One > > > mechanism for that could be the decision taken by the Fed at the > > > monetary policy meeting this week. The analysis or decision of the Fed > > > could unnerve the market. In this regard, we can note that transit L8 > > > Saturn will oppose both L10 Mars and natal L2 Sun at 24� > Capricorn on > > > March 21. Meanwhile, transit L1 Moon is conjunct Rahu in H10 and > > > transit L2 Sun in H9 is still under the aspect of natal L6 Jupiter > > in H5. > > > > > > We will soon see what happens. > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > Fed May Lower Rates Three Times on Housing Woes, Options Show > > > By Daniel Kruger > > > > > > March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are starting to say the > > > Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year as the > > > housing slump threatens the economy's growth. > > > > > > Options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade show a > > > 24 percent likelihood the central bank will lower its target rate for > > > overnight loans to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent. Just > > > seven weeks ago, options prices suggested no chance of that large a > > > reduction this year. > > > > > > Traders in options anticipate lower borrowing costs than economists or > > > futures contracts, the most widely used barometer of Fed policy, amid > > > increasing concerns about mortgage defaults. Futures show rates will > > > fall to 4.75 percent by year-end and economists expect 5 percent, > > > according to the median in a Bloomberg survey 73 forecasters from > > > March 1 to March 7. > > > > > > ``The fear is it spills into the economy, it spills into the banking > > > system and creates a credit crisis,'' said David Robin, an > > > interest-rate strategist in New York who helps manage options trading > > > for institutional clients at Fimat USA LLC, a unit of Societe Generale > > > Group. > > > > > > SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer@> wrote: > > > > > > > > Dear list members, > > > > > > > > As predicted, the inflation pressure in the USA is increasing, and > > > > not abating. This is bad news for policy makers who are torn > between > > > > the need to keep interest rates high or increase them to choke off > > > > the peristent inflation on the one hand and the need to reduce > > > > interest rates to help out the mortgage lending market which is > > > > bordering on a full blown crisis on the other hand. This is another > > > > piece of adverse information for investors and the still highly > > > > valued stock market going forward. > > > > > > > > In the paper " Major Corrections on Wall Street - an astrological > > > > analysis " (in the SAMVA USA chart folder in the Files section of the > > > > SAMVA web page) the prediction is made that the stock market will > > > > decline this spring. One of the key mechanisms for such a decline is > > > > that investors become disturbed by unwelcome news. What that news > > > > would be, is of course hard to say. However, it could very well be > > > > something to do with reduced liquidity on the financial market. One > > > > significant element there is rising interest rates. > > > > > > > > Accordingly, on page 5 in the paper it says: " ...it is not unlikely > > > > that in coming weeks and months, the Federal Reserve may > surprise the > > > > market by raising interest rates... " > > > > > > > > More recently, we have been surprised by a rate hike by the Bank of > > > > Japan in February, which caused many to reverse Yen carry trade > > > > positions in the West. This was an important element in the declines > > > > so far. However, we also need to wait for what the Fed decides next > > > > week. Whatever it does, it will be equivalent to walking a tightrope > > > > and the risk is that its statement or action concerning interest > > > > rates could disturb the market at that time. We will soon see. > > > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > > > U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in February on Fuel (Update3) > > > > By Courtney Schlisserman > > > > > > > > March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.4 > > > > percent last month, paced by gains in fuel, food and medical care > > > > that highlight the Federal Reserve's concern over inflation. > > > > > > > > The increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent > > > > January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core > > > > prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent and were 2.7 > > > > percent higher than a year earlier. > > > > > > > > Combined with last month's jump in wholesale prices, the figures > make > > > > it tougher for the Fed to lower rates should the mortgage crisis > > > > cause the economy to stumble. Policy makers are forecast to leave > > > > their benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth time when they > > > > meet next week. > > > > > > > > ``Clearly, there are still inflationary pressures,'' said Julia > > > > Coronado, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``This will > > > > only confirm the Fed's tightening bias is the appropriate bias at > > > > this point.'' > > > > > > > > Economists forecast consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent, > according > > > > to the median of 75 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. > Estimates > > > > ranged from increases of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Core prices > were > > > > projected to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median. > > > > > > > > U.S. Treasury securities dipped after the report, sending the yield > > > > on the benchmark 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.55 percent at 9 > > > > a.m. in New York. > > > > > > > > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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