French presidential election

March 28, 2007

Hello dear ,

Dear Thor and list members,

Some of you have probably heard about the French presidential

election coming soon.

Remi Panisset and I have made an analysis to see who

will win the contest according to Systems’Approach.

This analysis is available in French on our French

IIPA website (www.webzinemaker.com/iipafrance).

We have translated this document for all our dear

SAMVA members.

As most of you ignore probably the French political

context, we have added some background information taken from the press about

the candidates. Their charts are joined to this message.

Best Wishes

Jo Cohen and Remi Panisset

IIPA France

Nicolas Sarkozy, future French president

Who will succeed Jacques Chirac as the president of France?

The French will choose in two rounds of voting. The first ballot, on April 22,

will narrow the field to just two candidates, who will face off in a

head-to-head vote on May 6. Time has come to look at how the planets will

influence the contest. Four candidates are to be considered, two supported by

the great political parties, right-wing party UMP and Socialist Party, and two

outsiders from respectively center-right UDF and the extreme-right party Front

National. These candidates are respectively Nicolas Sarkozy, Ségolène Royal,

François Bayrou and Jean-Marie Le Pen. According to opinion polls conducted in

the end of 2006, Ségolène Royal could well win the presidential election, just

like Spain's

Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in 2004. Sarkozy never hid his desire to replace

Jacques Chirac as president of the Republic at this election. Jean-Marie Le

Pen is viewed as a perpetual candidate. He shocked the nation in 2002 by

reaching the elections' second round and says he is ready to do it again.

François Bayrou is considered as the third man. UDF candidate is treading the

tightrope between right and left. But could this late entrant into the race

walk away with the presidency? Let us analyze the promises of their natal charts

as well as the transits at the time of the votes in order to see who will win

this election. This analysis is made according to Systems’Approach, the

Vedic astrology revisited by . We use SA with the very

last rules introduced into 2006 and 2007.

NICOLAS SARKOZY

Birth data

Jan 28, 1955 - 10:00 PM (09:00 PM GMT)

Paris, France, longitude: 02E20, latitude: 48N52

Virgo sign rising at the ascendant, the chart of

Nicolas Sarkozy shows Mercury on the 6H MEP, placement which makes him a voluntary

and determined person, who likes debating of ideas, an art at the service of

his ambitions and defence of his status (Saturn, dispositor of Mercury, is

exalted in 2H). The weakness of Mercury shows however that he can be nervous,

prone to doubts and verbal excesses. Maintaining harmony will be a permanent

challenge for him, as his remarks can sow division in the country. Engagement

in policy is seen through the relation between 2H, 10H and 6H and a powerful

Sun in the 5H in Capricorn. His charisma is powerful. He recalls on any

occasion the role of the State, continuing the French republican tradition. His

conception of the role of State is however founded on quite personal ideas,

because of the weakness of Jupiter. Venus, the planet which controls his status

and which is located in the house of the initiatives, aspects the 4H Mep whose

lord Jupiter is located in the 10H of profession from where it aspects the

house of initiatives, the house of the creativity and the house of

partnerships. These two planets are weak. They account for the problems he

faced in his married life. However, SA considers that Venus placement in a

Sun-like house increases its strength. The Moon, closely conjunct with MMP Mars

in Pisces, makes him both protective and demanding with respect to others. He

believes in his own ideas with passion, at risk of being perceived as a

stubborn guy. He is aware of being surrounded by obscure forces which he

believes he can control. His projects are successful in spite of obstacles.

Nicolas Sarkozy is a direct person. Natal Mars which aspects Ketu, makes him

prone to sudden angers. Ketu located in 10H shows setback periods in his

career. The efficiency of his initiatives derives from the strength of Mars: he

likes taking risks and has the culture of results. The power of the natal Sun

confers the potential of a Head of State.

At the time of the

first round, the operating period is Sun and the sub period is

Mercury, lord of the ascendant. On April 22 2007, transit Jupiter in Scorpion

aspects natal Venus, lord of status. Transit Mercury debilitated and in state

of combustion as well as transit Sun in Aries show that the result will be

lower than predicted by opinion pools, which will result in severe doubts in

spite of his eligibility for the second round.

At the time of this

second round, on May 06

2007, the very powerful transit of Jupiter will give a much more favourable

support to Venus, ensuring the candidate the election as President of the French Republic.

Other unfavourable transits show he will be extremely tired, under severe

stress, not far from disease.

SEGOLENE ROYAL

Birth data

Sep 22, 1953 - 04:10 PM (16:10 GMT)

Dakar, Senegal, longitude: 17W26, latitude: 14N40

The rising sign in the natal chart of Ségolène Royal

is Capricorn, an ascending sign known to confer ambition. Her chart shows an

exacerbated ambition due to the influence of Rahu on Sun, located in the sign

of Virgo, fortunately more than two degrees of longitudinal difference. This

influence sweeps at times the legendary tact of Capricornians. Secret by

nature, manipulative, she has not orthodox views on the State and politics. She

lacks of practical solutions to solve the problems of the country. Natal

Mercury, slightly combust, is in its exaltation sign on the Mep of its own

sign: it shows that the life offers Ségolène the opportunities to achieve her

ambitions. From the point of view of SA, Mercury is a Sun-like planet and thus

sees its power increased. The strength of the Sun is also increased by its

position in this Sun-like house. Mercury and Sun incline Ségolène to a public

career.

The aspects of Mars, located on the Mep of 8H, on 2H

(status), 11H (realisation of desires) and 3H (initiatives) show a permanent

but dissimulated fight in order to rise to the highest positions in the

political arena, fights which mark all her career. Saturn, lord of 2H (status)

exalted in 10H (profession), receiving the aspect of natal Jupiter from 6H,

testifies her engagement in politics where her mantra will be the ‘right

order’ (Jupiter). This unusual planetary configuration shows that, in

spite of the obvious weaknesses of natal planets, including Saturn which rules

status, the voracious ambition, the good fortune (with two planets in a

Sun-like house) and the daring efforts of the native will be the key of her

rise in the political arena. Does she have the potential to become the next

president of France?

The influence of Rahu on Sun is not promising.

At the time of the

first round, the sub period of Mars is in progress. Efforts and aggressiveness

are then much more visible. On April 22, the transit of Mars on the Mep of the

2H of status, aspecting the lord of 9H, indicates she will pass the course of

the second round despite the pressures she will feel.

At the time of the

second round, on May 06 2007, the transit of Mars will still be on

the Mep of 2H, but its influence will not be exerting any more on the

significant lord of good fortune. She will lose the election vis-à-vis Sarkozy.

CHALLENGERS

FRANÇOIS BAYROU

Birth data

May 25, 1951 - 04:00 PM (15:00 GMT)

Bordères, France, longitude: 00E13, latitude: 43N12

The Virgo chart of François Bayrou shows a powerful

Moon in the 5H which gives him creative and nourishing ideas to tackle the

problems of the country as well as maturity to explain them in comprehensive

terms. This former professor of literature, also stockbreeder of horses, did

not have an easy life because natal Mercury located in the 8H with dispositor

Mars combust and severely afflicted. Let us note that Mercury aspects Mep of 2H

of status. François Bayrou came to politics because Venus, lord of 2H located

in the 10H of profession receives a narrow aspect of Rahu from the 6H. This same Rahu aspects 2H Mep, boosting his ambition to

reach the highest position of Head of State. Saturn, lord of 6H residing in

Virgo, is weak due to the weakness of its dispositor. The narrow affliction of

the Sun by combust Mars, the most malefic planet for this ascending sign,

removes any possibility for François Bayrou to become one day president.

Nevertheless, Jupiter and Moon open the doors for ministers as long as he will

be in good health.

The transits of the

first round show two favourable points: transit Venus on Mep of 9H

and transit Moon on natal Venus; but also several unfavourable points like

transit Sun in the house of the obstacles, transit Rahu on natal Venus or that

of Mercury combust and debilitated. The results for the native will be better

than those of presidential 2002, but less than the results currently predicted

by opinion pools. Decided not to give any instruction of vote for the second

round, the period between the two rounds will be particularly difficult for

François Bayrou. Hesitations and doubts will sap his confidence.

JEAN-MARIE LE PEN

Birth data

Jun 20, 1928 - 02:50 AM (01:50 GMT)

Trinité sur Mer, France, longitude: 02W59, latitude: 47N40

Aries sign is rising for Jean-Marie Le Pen. His 50

years of political ambition is fuelled by the aspect of Rahu on 2H Mep of

status and the impact of 6H lord on 3H Mep. This configuration make him

rebellious and revengeful. Apart from the direction of his own political party,

Jean Marie Le Pen will never get any stable position in politics, direct

relation between 2H, 6H and 10H being non-existent in his chart. Saturn in 8H

aspects narrowly 2H Mep and thus testifies for hidden enrichment through

donations and heritages from old people. The lord of ascendant in its own house

aspects natal Moon, also in its own house, making him a vibrant patriot,

trustful in his fight. The powerful Sun in the Sun-like house of initiatives

and communication explains his strong charisma, his public career and the

strong influence he exerts on his party’s members. The narrow affliction

on 3H and 9H Mep by malefic Mercury explains the violent character of his

convictions, his repeated verbal aggressions, his quarrelsome spirit and his

distrust with regard to foreigners.

Currently under the sub-period of Saturn, Jean-Marie

Le Pen sees his project of participating to this presidential election delayed

by the transit Mercury in the sign of Aquarius until 16th April,

deadline for deposit of the candidates’ registration at the

Constitutional Council. Transit Jupiter in 8H since last November makes things

more difficult, which decreases his chances.

At time of the first

round, several favourable transits will support his results: transit

Sun on natal Jupiter, transit Venus on 2H’Mep, transit Saturn transit on

1H and 10H Mep. Nevertheless, the result will be less than with presidential

2002 where the native was in the sub-period of Venus, activating by conjunction

his powerful natal Sun.

Jo Cohen and Rémi

Panisset

IIPA France

March 2007

BACKGROUND

Press articles published on France24.com on the

candidates

NICOLAS SARKOZY

Nicolas Sarkozy has been eyeing the French

President’s seat ever since he started his career. Despised by some,

revered by others, the former protégé of Jacques Chirac just might see his

dream come true.

" The presidential election? Yes,

I think about it, and not just while I'm shaving. "

Nicolas Sarkozy has never concealed his ambition - he

wants to be president of France.

A mayor at 28, a

member of parliament at 34 and a minister at 38, Sarkozy is a man in a hurry.

Nakedly ambitious, his life has been spent heading at full speed towards the

corridors of power. The 52 year-old star of the French right-wing is expected

to be the UMP party's official presidential candidate. Nicolas Sarközy de Nagy

Bocsa was born on January 28th, 1955 to a French mother and a Hungarian father.

Unlike most of France's

ruling class, Sarkozy was an average student, and did not study at the elite

Ecole Nationale d'Administration (ENA) before heading into ministerial office.

After qualifying as a lawyer, Nicolas Sarkozy entered into practice at the Paris firm Arnaud Claude

where he specialised in property. But it wasn't long before the lure of the

Palais de la République interested him more than the Palais de Justice.

The precocious politician

Sarkozy was on the political right from the start. At

19, he joined the RPR - le Rassemblement pour la République - created by his

early political mentors Charles Pasqua and Jacques Chirac. His talent,

especially as a speaker, was quickly noticed. In 1981, Chirac launched his

first presidential bid and Sarkozy campaigned for him at the head of a group of

young supporters. In 1983, aged just 28, he was elected Mayor of the

well-heeled Parisian suburb of Neuilly sur Seine. Six years later he became a Member of Parliament

for the Hauts-de-Seine department.

Throughout the 1980s Sarkozy paved his path to the

top, cultivating a network of confidantes in politics and business. Among his

allies were the business leaders Martin Bouyges and Bernard Arnault. He also

entered firmly into the Chirac clan, winning the affections of wife Bernadette

and daughter Claude. When Chirac stood for election in 1988, Sarkozy again

campaigned.

In 1993 the young politician took on his first

government brief, Prime Minister Edouard Balladur making him Budget Minister.

He was one of the government's youngest and most dynamic ministers - and one of

its most media-friendly.

In 1995 Sarkozy decided to back Balladur when he stood

against Chirac for presidential election. It was a bad choice. Chirac won and

made his former protégé pay dearly for his treachery.

Excluded from the President's inner circle, Sarkozy

was left in the wilderness. A brief ray of hope came in the 1999 European

elections when he stood for the RPR. It turned out to be another failure, he

came only third.

Sarkozy withdrew briefly from political life, working

as a lawyer and spending his spare time writing and learning English. But the

attraction of power remained strong and in 2001 he released his political

manifesto Libre. It was time to build bridges.

Chirac's re-election in 2002 allowed a return to

favour for the rejected son. Sarkozy was made interior minister, the second

most important position in government. Always tough-talking, he set security as

his priority and pulled off a coup with the arrest of Yvan Colonna, a man

wanted for four years for the murder of a prefect in Corsica.

Straight-talking compared to Prime Ministers Raffarin

and Villepin, Sarkozy became the government's star media performer. A regular

guest on television, he drew record audiences. Rarely had the media in France

contributed so much to the creation of a political legend.

Sarkozy the minister

Sarkozy has never truly placated loyal Chirac

supporters who still bear a grudge from 1995. A popular mantra in their camp is

" Anything But Sarkozy. "

He's also hated on the left for his economic

liberalism and obsession with security. Deliberately provocative, his language

during the 2005 riots in France's

suburbs riled many. Sarkozy famously labeled the rioters " racaille, "

often translated into English as " scum " but perhaps closer to

" rabble. " He said the suburbs needed to be scrubbed with a Karcher, a

type of industrial cleaner. Throwing foreigners without papers out of France,

he declared himself for selective immigration. Sarkozy is often accused of trying

to seduce voters for the hard-right Front National. He says he's simply trying

to keep disillusioned people, who might be tempted to vote for extremist

parties, in the republican fold. Front National leader Jean Marie Le Pen sees

it like this: " a Le Pen voter is just a Sarkozy voter who's had his house

broken into twice. "

The republican ideal in France makes differentiating

between people on grounds of ethnicity or religion a thorny issue. In

supporting positive discrimination - and creating a council of French Muslims

to represent the country's second largest religious community - Sarkozy is a

radical. Critics say he's driving a wedge between different social groups.

Sarkozy is also a fan of America

and didn't hesitate to be photographed with George Bush on a trip to Washington in September 2006: " My attachment to the

relationship with the United States

is well-known and has earned me criticism in France. But I'm a supporter of the

friendship and proud of it, " he beamed.

Perhaps it was his enthusiasm for the American way

that made Sarkozy happy to see his relationship with his second wife Cécilia

played out in the media. Rarely out of the magazines, the apparently

inseparable couple ran into well-documented difficulties in 2005. Cécilia's

flight and subsequent return seem to have chastened Sarkozy, who now says he

regrets opening up his private life to the press.

In 2004, at an American-style rally, Sarkozy became

president of President Chirac's ruling UMP party. He stands at the helm of the

foremost party of the French right and is expected to be its presidential

candidate in January 2006. Sarkozy can continue to dream of the ultimate

political prize - and not just while shaving.

SEGOLENE ROYAL

Ségolène Royal is the Socialist

Party’s candidate for France's

presidential election in May 2007. She is the first woman in French history to

be in a position to win the presidency.

For a long time, Royal was just one female politician

among others, and not even the best-known. Snubbed by the party bigwigs, she nevertheless

won the Socialist nomination in November 2006 when the party's rank and file

members overwhelmingly voted for her.

People say Royal has a nerve, but it works. She

advances and conquers, without bothering about sensitivities. Her career has

been the story of a stunning rise.

The Childhood of a Chief

Marie-Ségolène Royal was born on Sept. 22, 1953 in Dakar, Senegal.

She was the fourth child in a family of eight children. Her father, Jacques

Royal, a colonel, moved his family around according to his postings, and

Marie-Ségolène grew up in Martinique. She was

11 when her father left the army and returned to France. The family then settled

down in Chamagne, a small village in the Vosges, in eastern France. Segolene would construct

her character in opposition to her father. Jacques Royal was authoritarian and

right-wing, but Ségolène would grow up to be a left-wing feminist. In a TV

interview, she once said: “My father always made me feel that my sisters

and I were inferior beings.” Defending women would become Royal’s

priority. “The first law I’ll bring to Parliament if I am elected

will be a law to fight violence against women.”

Royal Goes to Paris

Royal was a student at the University of Nancy

when her parents separated. She sided with her mother and sued her father,

forcing him to pay a pension to his ex-wife and finance his daughter’s

studies. She left for Paris

and dropped the “Marie” in her name. In the capital, she studied at

the Institute of Political Studies, and then at the Ecole

Nationale d’Administration (ENA) where several former French heads of

state have studied. There she met a bright young man who made her laugh. Leader

of the school’s young socialists, François Hollande (who today is the

Socialist Party’s first secretary) became her companion and the father of

their four children. They have chosen not to get married.

The couple often say a clear line is drawn between

their public and private lives. But their story is one of two ambitions

side-by-side. Yet in the run-up to the next election, it is the man who has

stepped aside.

Royal enters the Elysée Palace

After ENA, Francois and Ségolène were noticed by

Jacques Attali, President Mitterrand’s special advisor. Segolene was 27

when she went to work in the Elysée. Until 1988 she advised the president on

health, environmental and youth issues, while François Hollande specialised in

economics.

Royal once said Mitterrrand was “the man I have

the most loved in the world”. But her ambition is not to remain an

advisor. In 1988, she campaigned to become Member of Parliament in the

Deux-Sevres, in western France.

The constituency was held by the right-wing, but against all odds Segolene won

the election.

Ségolène the Minister

In 1993, she became Environment Minister in Pierre

Beregovoy’s government. During this tenure she gave birth to her fourth

child, Flora. The event put her on the cover of Paris Match magazine, where

she was photographed with her new-born in her arms. Later, in Lionel

Jospin’s government, she held two more ministerial portfolios, dealing

with educational and family matters.

Despite not holding the main portfolios, she still

managed to attract media attention. She campaigned against noise pollution,

thongs, and violence on television. She got contraceptive pills to be

distributed in high schools. But her ambition was to take on a more important

role in French political life.

In 2004, she gained her greatest victory when she won

the presidency of the Poitou-Charentes region in western France. She formed strong political

networks within her Party, and modernised her appearance. She tests her method

of “participatory democracy”: I listen to the French people, and if

I’m elected I will embody their ideas.

Ségolène the candidate

After her win in Poitou-Charentes, the idea of her

candidature for the Elysee became a reality. On security and employment issues

she dared to advance propositions not usually associated with the Left. She

also suggested that juries composed of citizens should judge elected members.

As a result, she was branded a populist.

Foreign affairs are considered to be Royal's weak

point. Her detractors say she lacks depth. She can seduce or annoy, but no one

can contest her irresistible ascension.

FRANCOIS BAYROU

Francois Bayrou has established himself

as the third man in a campaign previously seen as a head-to-head between

socialist Ségolène Royal and right-winger Nicolas Sarkozy. According to a 21

February survey, 17% of French people intend to vote for the former teacher,

who leads the centre-right UDF (Union for

French Democracy).

Often photographed smiling with his beloved horses, he

hails from Béarn in the south west, where his parents were farmers. His mantra:

the need to end to what he calls 'bi-polar' politics: " Alternating from

left to right as we've done since 1981 has left France in a rut. "

From farmer to education minister

After the death of his father, Bayrou juggled his

career as a teacher with managing the family farming business.

Although happy to draw inspiration from former socialist

heavyweights like Jacques Delors and Pierre Mendès France, he distanced himself

from the left, whom he sees as too close to the communists: " I could never

be left-wing because of what happened in the Soviet Union, because of the

totalitarianism that sent millions to the gulag. " If anything, his

political conscience was formed in non-violent movements and in his early years

he was close to Lanza del Vasto, a follower of Ghandi.

In 1982, aged 30, he entered into local politics and

just four years later became a UDF member of parliament for

Pyrénées-Atlantiques. By 1993 he was education minister – his remit later

extending to include higher education, research and professional training.

It was an inglorious reign. In 1995, the country

witnessed the biggest student revolt since 1968 against Prime Minister Alain

Juppé's proposed reforms. Bayrou remained intransigent, standing by his Prime

Minister as the country headed for social paralysis. He later claimed to have

learnt his lesson: " I went about things the wrong way it taught me a

lesson and I have sworn to myself that force will no longer play a part in my

politics. "

In 1998 Bayrou was elected UDF leader, carving out a

position as a passionate pro-European. His first shot at the presidency came in

2002, but despite a laborious campaign he managed to poll just 6.8% of first

round votes. Worse was to come. The move to counter National Front candidate

Jean-Marie Le Pen in the second round saw two thirds of the UDF join forces

with Jacques Chirac's party. Betrayed by his troops, Bayrou and a few loyal

supporters denounced the new regime from the sidelines, flirted with the

opposition and in June 2008, refused to back Prime Minister Dominique de

Villepin in a vote of confidence.

A radical centrist?

Bayrou does not fit the blueprint of a French

politician. For starters he did not attend the Ecole Nationale

d'Administration, the revered - and often reviled - finishing school for those

set to run the country. Supporters speak of a man keen to listen, methodical in

his research. Long before his rivals, he was extolling the virtues of the

internet as a tool of communication and democracy.

Bayrou sees himself as a force for change. He wants to

govern based on what he calls general interest and national unity, breaking the

partisanship that he says dominates the political classes. Admirers see this

spirit of compromise as a kind of revolutionary centrism. Critics denounce an

opportunist keen to tell people anything they want to hear. Ségolène Royal has

said he should clarify his position and stop sitting on the fence.

The problem for Royal and Sarkozy is that, if we

believe the surveys, sitting on the fence is doing Bayrou just fine. If the man

with the horses can appeal to teachers as well as farmers, the disappointments

of the past might just be behind him.

JEAN-MARIE LE PEN

In France

it's known as " April 21, 2002 " - the day when extreme right candidate

Jean-Marie Le Pen shocked the nation - and the world - by winning nearly 17% of

the vote and qualifying for the second round of the presidential race. He ended

up losing soundly to President Jacques Chirac, but that hasn't dampened his

hopes for 2007.

He loves the idea of a face-off with Nicolas Sarkozy

or Ségolène Royal. And he’s no doubt buoyed by his qualification for the

second round of the last presidential election in April 2002. Jean-Marie Le Pen

has experienced the wilderness during his long political career, but since 1983

he’s been making consistent progress. To him, it seems logical that his

political journey will take him right to the top and that the current election

is his big chance.

At 78, Le Pen will be the 2007 election’s oldest

candidate. As in 1956, when he was elected as the youngest member of the

National Assembly, he’s still the anti-establishment candidate. Ever

since he created the National Front in 1972, along with others nostalgic for

French Algeria, he’s stood out from the crowd. His thundering

rhetoric is as instantly recognizable as the patch that used to cover his right

eye. In 1987, he declared that the gas chambers of the Holocaust were no more

than “a detail of history.” He also denounced victims of AIDS as

“a threat to the stability of the nation... the AIDS sufferer infects

through sweating, saliva and contact. It’s a kind of leprosy.”

Condemned several times for inciting racial hatred,

the National Front leader has never abandoned the cause. He has never

stopped railing against those who, in his view, are responsible for the decline

of France.

Unchanged since the 1950s, Le Pen has never strayed from his view that only a

complete about-turn in politics can put France right again: and that means

putting an end to a hollow right and an ineffective left.

The struggle against immigration is at the centre of

Le Pen’s platform. A believer in the need for zero immigration, he holds

immigrants responsible for the chronic unemployment that has dogged France

since the 1970s. His remedy is to institute “national preference,”

whereby jobs and welfare would be reserved purely for French citizens. In a

recent interview in Le Point magazine he declared: “We need to make it

clear to illegal immigrants that if they continue to come here, they’ll

be out on the streets in the cold – and that won’t be our problem,

it’ll be theirs.”

France for the French then, but what else? In the eyes of the extreme

right, French sovereignty has crumbled with the advent of the European Union. France

is no longer the master of her destiny, having embarked on a

federalist path that will drown her identity. Ever since the Maastricht Treaty

of 1992, Le Pen has held that European institutions are a danger, arguing that

the Euro must be withdrawn, borders re-established and the European flag

consigned to the history books. In May 2005, when France voted on the European

Constitution, he proclaimed himself the protector of French sovereignty and was

one of the loudest voices in the No campaign. Ironically, the European

Parliament is where Le Pen and his colleagues have had the least difficulty

gaining representation. The body is elected under a system of proportional

representation. Entry into the French Parliament, meanwhile, is more difficult

and despite a regular vote of around 15%, the National Front is not

represented there. It’s one of their biggest complaints.

Another potential barrier to their success is the need

to collect 500 signatures from elected representatives in order to be a

candidate in the presidential election. In 2002, Le Pen only just managed this

– he was seen on television, phone in hand, personally calling people to

beg for their support. For the 2007 election, the main parties have adopted

even stricter criteria. Le Pen’s absence would be his first since 1974

and would represent, according to UMP deputy Hervé Novelli: “a political

earthquake and a sign that our democracy is seriously ill.”

In 2007, Le Pen will no longer have a monopoly on the

issues that have made him notorious. Philippe de Villiers, head of the

Mouvement Pour La France,

will also run on a ticket of defending French identity and sovereignty.

Aware of the risk he poses, Le Pen has tried to reach out to his rival,

proposing they combine forces in a patriotic union.

But Le Pen’s real adversaries are the Socialist

Party and its candidate Ségolène Royal, and the centre-right UMP, likely to be

represented by Nicolas Sarkozy. Currently Interior Minister, Sarkozy will seek

to impress voters worried about insecurity in the suburbs with his record of

firmness on delinquency. For Le Pen, 2005’s riots simply proved that

he’d been right all along.

On the left, Royal’s call for an ordered society

could bring on board the working class voters tempted by Le Pen. What’s

more, Royal should benefit from a more disciplined vote than in the first round

of the last presidential election. Then, a splintered vote on the left kept

Lionel Jospin out of the second round and allowed Le Pen through.

The majority of parties hope dearly that the events of

21 April 2002 will never be repeated. Jean-Marie Le Pen feels he can do even

better this time around. Could he be right?