Guest guest Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 Dear Thor and , I imagine that the first trade natal chart for an IPO is secondary to the company's natal chart. Your thoughts would be appreciated. Perhaps if we had the natal and the IPO natal of a company, we could compare best and this question can be answered easily. Best regards, Vyas Munidas - " cosmologer " <cosmologer <SAMVA > Monday, June 25, 2007 7:08 PM Re: Case Study - The BlackStone Group Hello Raj, It would be good if you could back up your claims concerning the first trade in GOOG and EBAY occuring around noon time with a source. For the record, I didn´t say " most stocks trade at the open " . Rather I said " We presume most stocks trade at the open " and " I expect this would be the case for most IPOs, however, more research is needed to establish this point beyond doubt " . Certainly, I have been well served to rely on the insight of Professor Choudhry. Best wishes, Thor SAMVA , Raj Cgadha <rkctech wrote: > > Thor: > > I will compare some charts for the location of NY and headquarter myself before accepting 's insight. > > However you are definitely not right when you say most stock open near the openeing of stock exchange. GOOG, for example opened at noon, EBAY at 12:20 pm. > > Raj > > cosmologer <cosmologer wrote: Hello Raj, > > Thanks for confirming the Nasdaq stock exchange has the same opening > time as the NYSES. > > The matter of which location to use is settled by the insight of > . He thinks that the very same moment the trade is > made in NY is relevant at the location of the company. > > We presume it is a fairly standard practice for the IPO to be offered > for trade at the open, even if multiple IPOs occur in the same day. > With detailed records it is possible to identify exactly the time of > first trade in any given stock. The incidence of first trade has with > the example of the Blackstone Group been shown by Peter to occur close > to the open. I expect this would be the case for most IPOs, however, > more research is needed to establish this point beyond doubt. > > Best wishes, > > Thor > > SAMVA , Raj Cgadha <rkctech@> wrote: > > > > Thor: > > > > I could not find any justification to make an adjustment for > headquarter location. > > > > NYSE and NASDAQ open at the same time. But it is the first trade > time that you need, not market open time. There may be 4 IPO's on one > day. If you use market open time, they all will have the same chart. > > > > Apple's advance can be predicted from my chart also. > > > > Raj > > > > cosmologer <cosmologer@> wrote: > Hello Raj, > > > > As per , the following scheme is used: > > > > Event is first trade at IPO > > Place: New York, NY > > mm/dd/yy > > Local time: 09:30 > > > > Chart is based on same moment but at headquarters location (deg W min, > > deg N min), mm/dd/yy, making adjustment for local time: 09:30 - > > time zone difference (if different from EST). > > > > What is the source of your information that the Nasdaq market has > > opened later than NYSE? > > > > The 17° Scorpio rising chart for Apple Co. allowed me to correctly > > predict a rise in the share price from July 2004. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Thor > > > > SAMVA , Raj Cgadha <rkctech@> wrote: > > > > > > Dear financial astrologers: > > > > > > For Apple Computer, I have been using chart based on Dec 12, 1980, > > 11:30AM, EST, New York. This is because most of the stocks open on > > NASDAQ around 11AM, not 9:30AM. It puts two FB's on 8th MEP, > > explaining substancial rise in Jup/Jup and Jup/Sat period. This chart > > also expalins why the stock was underperformer in the 18 years of Rahu > > period. > > > > > > I do not understand why would you adjust for San Jose time. I would > > appreciate if you substantiate your reasons with examples. > > > > > > Thanks > > > > > > Raj > > > > > > Cosmologer <cosmologer@> wrote: > > Dear Vyas, Peter and list, > > > > > > One chart that stands out is that of Apple Computer Company. It is > > based on the 09:30 am time in NYC, adjusted for San Jose. Even if we > > move the time back some minutes, it makes little difference for the > > overall strength. However, it would move the rising degree from 17° > > 03' to say 19° 09' if the first trade took place ten minutes after the > > open December 12, 1980. This would mean the important yoga of L2 > > Jupiter at 14° 00' Virgo H11 and L4 Saturn at 14° 58' Virgo would > > partially move out of MEP. This is not likely as during the Jupiter - > > Jupiter period, which began according to the 09:30 time on July 7, > > 2004, the share price began to rise. If we move the time to say 09:40 > > the period would begin around June 20 and Jupiter would no longer be > > in H11 MEP. What has happened with the share prices since the onset of > > this dasa and the Jupiter and then also Saturn bukhti is that the > > share price jumped. The company has introduced one hit after the > other. > > > There seems to be little let up in sight as the next bukhti is that > > of L11 Mercury at 16° 47' Scorpio H1 from March 2009. In short, the > > chart is working very well based on a time close to the opening bell. > > It is not likely that a chart beyond 09:40 would be so fitting. This > > supports Peters thesis that the first trade is the one to use, > > assuming this trade also took place shortly after the open back in > > late 1980. > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > Vyas Munidas <munidas@> wrote: > > > Hi Thor and Peter, > > > > > > It may be a good idea to backtest this idea using the first trade > > data for > > > Microsoft - the volume is apprecaible and a good amount of time has > > past > > > since the first trade. > > > > > > > > > Best regards, > > > > > > Vyas Munidas > > > > > > > > > - > > > " Cosmologer " > > > To: > > > Saturday, June 23, 2007 4:28 AM > > > Re: Case Study - The BlackStone Group > > > > > > > > > Dear Peter and list members, > > > > > > Thanks for sharing this information, Peter. It is very interesting > > for the > > > fact that previously we have followed charts based on more limited > > > information concerning the timing of the first market trade. > > > > > > We have used the following data: > > > 1. Company: Company name (ticker symbol): > > > 2. Day of initial public offer (IPO) > > > 3. HQ location: City where the company is headquartered (HQ). > > > 4. Time: Local time at the HQ location equivalent to the time > when NYSE > > > opens up for business in NYC. The stock exchange has opened at 9:30 > > am in > > > recent decades. This is the so-called opening bell. The NYSE opened > > at 10 am > > > prior to September 1984, I think. > > > > > > With regard to 4. Time, you have brought more specific information > > on the > > > actual timing of the first trade. Moreover, the information opens > > up the > > > very interesting question of what actually constitutes the first > > trade. It > > > seems the Initial trade is made to set an opening price (at $45.00), > > perhaps > > > reflecting what the seller or stock exchange members think is the > > > appropriate price. The second trade is then what the real market > forces > > > think ($36.45). The second price is clealy based on actual bidding > > on the > > > stock exchange, where the seller decides to sell and a buyer agrees > > to buy > > > at a given price. To me, this would be the actual market determined > > price. > > > Hence, I would be in favour of using the latter time. > > > > > > In other words, I would think the latter time is the real time > when the > > > stock is actually trading on the exchange, but I could very well be > > wrong on > > > this. > > > > > > 1. Blackstone Group (BX) > > > 2. June 22, 2007 > > > 3. HQ location: New York city > > > 4. Time: 9:52:40 am (EDT) > > > Ascendant: 0° 10' Leo rising (chart attached as .gif file) > > > > > > Clearly, if the latter time is the correct time to use, this implies > > the > > > actual market trade in the stock can be some time later than the > > opening > > > bell. This would suggest there is more scope for error in earlier > > work based > > > on the opening bell at 9:30 am. > > > > > > I´d be interested in other views on the actual timing to use. > > > > > > Finally, Peter, is it possible to get information about > historical IPOs > > > based on such accuracy of timing of trades? > > > > > > Best wishes, > > > > > > Thor > > > > > > ght451 wrote: > > > Hi Group, > > > > > > It may be of interest to some of the list members who are applying SA > > > to equity markets to use the recent listing of The BlackStone > Group as > > > an on going case study. > > > > > > As many of you will know the stock (BX) was listed on the NYSE on > > > Friday 22nd of June 2007 in New York. > > > > > > The " listing " time is of some interest. The INITIAL trade was at > > > $45.00 at 9:32:56am EDT on the electronic trading platform - > THRD - for > > > 2000 shares. The stock was then " opened " on the floor of the NYSE at > > > 9:52:40am EDT at $36.45 on 17, 171, 700 shares. This data comes from > > > the consolidated " Time & Sales " data from the NYSE. > > > > > > I am using the initial trade time of 9:32:56am as the actual > > > commencement of trading. I would be interested in any group feedback > > > on this point and the chart. Is anyone persuaded to use the NYSE time > > > of 9:52:40am? If so, why? Clearly this is of some importance as > > > the " 2nd time " gives a Leo Ascendant - the 1st time gives a Cancer > > > Ascendant. So often we have problems with the exact timing of an > > > event. At least with this case study we have some absolute times to > > > work with and test the SA principles as applied to forecasting equity > > > prices. > > > > > > Perhaps of further interest is the birth data on the managing partner > > > of BlackStone - Mr Stephen Schwarzman -born Febuary 14th 1947 in the > > > Eastern USA. > > > > > > > > > Peter > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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