Guest guest Posted February 1, 2008 Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 Dear friends, You may be interested to see the attached graph showing the number of posts on SAMVA from January 2001 through January 2008. The posting data has been stripped of seasonal and irregular factors to reveal an underlying trend. What emerges is a clear cyclical pattern, with upswings alternating with downswings in list activity. Three cycles are evident since the list was founded in November 2000, with a fourth having begun late last year. The first surge in posts took place in the autumn of 2001, following the 9/11 attacks. The posts then declined from mid 2002 and hit a trough in 2003. The second surge in posts took place in late 2003, but I have forgotten what was being discussed at that time. This was followed by a decline in early 2005, perhaps linked to the first change in moderatorship, when I took a break and Jorge Angelino took over. The third surge took place in early 2007, following the discovery of the SAMVA USA chart. The sharp decline in the posts in 2007 was also linked to a change in moderatorship, when I again took over from Jorge Angelino. The trend-cycle graph reveals that a fourth upturn appears to be in the making. There are now three SAMVA list moderators, including myself, Vyas Munidas and . So, the list is in good hands. Let's hope the technical analysis is correct and that a vibrant and interesting year of astrological discussions is ahead! Best wishes, Thor No. of posts Irregular component seaonally adjusted seasonal factor trend cycle 2001M01 99 21 87 12 65 2001M02 48 4 67 -19 62 2001M03 27 -1 59 -32 60 2001M04 44 -24 37 7 61 2001M05 51 -20 49 2 68 2001M06 99 51 135 -36 84 2001M07 43 -38 71 -28 109 2001M08 108 -34 103 5 137 2001M09 268 74 238 30 164 2001M10 361 166 348 13 182 2001M11 180 -21 170 10 191 2001M12 121 -108 83 38 191 2002M01 308 112 297 11 185 2002M02 143 -12 166 -23 177 2002M03 107 -42 136 -29 178 2002M04 234 38 226 8 188 2002M05 175 -34 169 6 204 2002M06 165 -15 204 -39 219 2002M07 243 43 270 -27 226 2002M08 247 23 241 6 218 2002M09 225 3 199 26 196 2002M10 183 1 171 12 170 2002M11 128 -36 113 15 149 2002M12 158 -18 121 37 139 2003M01 125 -23 117 8 140 2003M02 167 47 195 -28 148 2003M03 227 95 249 -22 154 2003M04 141 -17 134 7 151 2003M05 170 15 154 16 140 2003M06 69 -6 116 -47 122 2003M07 84 -1 107 -23 108 2003M08 124 10 115 9 105 2003M09 89 -38 76 13 114 2003M10 127 -13 120 7 134 2003M11 200 18 176 24 158 2003M12 232 15 199 33 183 2004M01 230 22 226 4 204 2004M02 163 -23 193 -30 216 2004M03 211 -2 216 -5 219 2004M04 227 9 225 2 216 2004M05 257 14 229 28 215 2004M06 154 -11 208 -54 219 2004M07 124 -82 148 -24 230 2004M08 158 -95 149 9 244 2004M09 283 30 285 -2 255 2004M10 273 19 274 -1 255 2004M11 295 21 262 33 241 2004M12 254 9 223 31 214 2005M01 162 -26 154 8 181 2005M02 101 -18 134 -33 152 2005M03 138 -11 126 12 137 2005M04 149 17 153 -4 136 2005M05 164 -20 123 41 144 2005M06 94 2 155 -61 153 2005M07 159 29 187 -28 158 2005M08 180 16 173 7 158 2005M09 117 -25 128 -11 153 2005M10 131 -9 138 -7 146 2005M11 191 12 151 40 139 2005M12 167 4 139 28 135 2006M01 140 -8 128 12 136 2006M02 108 -1 142 -34 143 2006M03 179 -3 151 28 154 2006M04 132 -27 142 -10 169 2006M05 267 38 220 47 182 2006M06 125 -6 186 -61 192 2006M07 327 165 360 -33 196 2006M08 210 12 208 2 196 2006M09 153 -29 168 -15 197 2006M10 188 -7 199 -11 206 2006M11 117 -151 75 42 226 2006M12 248 -32 221 27 253 2007M01 419 125 402 17 277 2007M02 442 190 478 -36 288 2007M03 365 54 333 32 278 2007M04 187 -50 198 -11 247 2007M05 245 -7 197 48 204 2007M06 101 4 163 -62 159 2007M07 56 -33 89 -33 121 2007M08 82 -22 80 2 103 2007M09 110 25 126 -16 101 2007M10 89 -7 102 -13 108 2007M11 142 -19 100 42 120 2007M12 171 13 146 25 132 2008M01 187 20 168 19 147 2008M02 2008M03 2008M04 2008M05 2008M06 2008M07 2008M08 2008M09 2008M10 2008M11 2008M12 Never miss a thing. Make your homepage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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