Housing market in the SAMVA USA chart

[Guest guest]

Dear friends,

 

The news out of the USA indicates the economic growth is slowing, as indicated also by ongoing weakness in the housing sector. Inventory of unsold housing is increasing, average house prices are declining and foreclosures, while low, are increasing. As inflation is conisdered to be low or manageable, the Fed is expected to continue lowering interest rates in an effort to stimulate growth. A comparison is made to the year 1991.

 

Concerns of a US recession in 2008

Based on a reading of the transits in the SAMVA USA chart this year, has warned that financial market conditions in the USA are expected to remain volatile due to concerns about a recession in the USA.

 

The housing sector is important for the USA

In the Cancer rising SAMVA USA chart we note that Venus as 4th lord is the indicator of "landed properties and housing". It is natally placed in the 6th house, which rules "financial solvency of the nation and litigations". Moreover, the dispositor of Venus, Jupiter becomes important for its indications and Jupiter is natally placed in the 5th house, which rules amongst other things "investments and the stock

exchange". Jupiter is also an indicator for "banking." Finally, the Moon, as a general indicator for the 4th house, also becomes an important indicator for housing. Natally, the Moon in the 11th house is in close opposition aspect with Jupiter. The housing sector in the USA is thus important for the overall financial stability in the country and an important sector for the US economy.

 

Let us now look at conditions in the early 1990s, when the housing sector was in a slump and see what was going on in the SAMVA USA chart at that time.

 

The relatively brief KETU major period was running in the early 1990s. In 1990 the sub-periods of VENUS and SUN were operating and in 1991, those of the MOON and MARS.

 

August to November 1990: 8th lord SATURN was closely conjunct natal 4th lord VENUS at 23° 51' in Sagittarius 6th house during the Ke/Ve period. This influence would have created obstacles and endings in the housing sector.

November 1990 to March 1991: stationary transit KETU in early Cancer closely aspected natal 6th lord JUPITER at 4° 45' Scorpio 5th house (transit Ketu was also conjunct transit SATURN in early 1991). Meanwhile, transit Rahu was aspecting natal Moon. The Ke/Su period was operating. These transit influences would have created a setback for the financial stability and housing market. See also attached jpg file.

June to September 1991: transit stationary RAHU in Sagittarius and 6th house became closely conjunct natal VENUS, while transit Ketu was in 12th house. The Ke/Mo period was operating. This aspect would have brought crisis conditions to the housing market.

 

Table 1: Transits in 1990 -1992

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JUPITER

VENUS

SATURN

RAHU

KETU

 

1.1.1990

11°Ge29'R

12°Cp33'R

21°Sg52'

23°Cp09'D

23°Cn09'D

 

31.1.1990

8°Ge05'R

28°Sg38'R

25°Sg23'

22°Cp46'D

22°Cn46'D

 

2.3.1990

7°Ge08'

5°Cp06'

28°Sg29'

22°Cp32'

22°Cn32'

 

1.4.1990

9°Ge02'

0°Aq49'

0°Cp41'

21°Cp05'

21°Cn05'

 

1.5.1990

13°Ge13'

2°Pi44'

1°Cp36'

18°Cp19'

18°Cn19'

 

31.5.1990

18°Ge53'

6°Ar56'

1°Cp04'R

15°Cp32'D

15°Cn32'D

 

30.6.1990

25°Ge21'

12°Ta11'

29°Sg21'R

13°Cp58'

13°Cn58'

 

30.7.1990

2°Cn03'

18°Ge09'

27°Sg11'R

13°Cp34'

13°Cn34'

 

29.8.1990

8°Cn30'

24°Cn45'

25°Sg29'R

13°Cp13'D

13°Cn13'D

 

28.9.1990

14°Cn05'

1°Vi53'

24°Sg59'

11°Cp43'D

11°Cn43'D

 

28.10.1990

18°Cn08'

9°Li24'

25°Sg57'

8°Cp50'

8°Cn50'

 

27.11.1990

19°Cn50'

17°Sc03'

28°Sg12'

5°Cp58'

5°Cn58'

 

27.12.1990

18°Cn42'R

24°Sg43'

1°Cp21'

4°Cp30'

4°Cn30'

 

26.1.1991

15°Cn15'R

2°Aq16'

4°Cp53'

4°Cp17'D

4°Cn17'D

 

25.2.1991

11°Cn33'R

9°Pi29'

8°Cp17'

3°Cp49'D

3°Cn49'D

 

27.3.1991

9°Cn50'R

16°Ar01'

11°Cp03'

1°Cp51'

1°Cn51'

 

26.4.1991

10°Cn53'

21°Ta24'

12°Cp44'

28°Sg42'

28°Ge42'

 

26.5.1991

14°Cn20'

24°Ge48'

13°Cp02'R

26°Sg08'

26°Ge08'

 

25.6.1991

19°Cn28'

24°Cn05'

11°Cp56'R

25°Sg13'

25°Ge13'

 

25.7.1991

25°Cn34'

12°Le34'

9°Cp55'R

25°Sg14'D

25°Ge14'D

 

24.8.1991

2°Le05'

4°Le47'R

7°Cp49'R

24°Sg41'

24°Ge41'

 

23.9.1991

8°Le30'

28°Cn57'

6°Cp34'R

22°Sg25'

22°Ge25'

 

23.10.1991

14°Le13'

19°Le14'

6°Cp43'

19°Sg05'

19°Ge05'

 

22.11.1991

18°Le34'

20°Vi00'

8°Cp18'

16°Sg42'

16°Ge42'

 

22.12.1991

20°Le45'

24°Li42'

11°Cp01'

16°Sg05'

16°Ge05'

 

21.1.1992

20°Le10'R

0°Sg59'

14°Cp25'

16°Sg02'

16°Ge02'

 

20.2.1992

17°Le06'R

7°Cp51'

17°Cp59'

14°Sg46'

14°Ge46'

 

21.3.1992

13°Le19'R

14°Aq53'

21°Cp11'

11°Sg49'

11°Ge49'

 

20.4.1992

11°Le03'R

21°Pi53'

23°Cp32'

8°Sg44'

8°Ge44'

 

20.5.1992

11°Le26'

28°Ar48'

24°Cp40'

7°Sg09'D

7°Ge09'D

 

19.6.1992

14°Le17'

5°Ge39'

24°Cp22'R

6°Sg55'D

6°Ge55'D

 

19.7.1992

18°Le57'

12°Cn32'

22°Cp47'R

6°Sg40'

6°Ge40'

 

Transit Jupiter was for the first half of 1990 moving through Gemini and the 12th house, at which time there were grave concerns about the countries banking system, due also to the Savings & Loan debacle of prior years. Thereafter Jupiter went through Cancer the 1st house and Leo the 2nd house in the second half of 1991 where it fared better. The financial stability was therefore supported while the above noted adverse transit influences were being felt. In 1992 the country is judged to have begun a fledgling recovery.

 

More recently, the period and transit conditions have also been difficult in the SAMVA USA chart. The Venus major period is running and the Jupiter sub-period, until February 2009, when the Venus-Saturn period begins. We can thus expect issues having to do with Jupiter being more important in the coming 12 months, but that issues having to do with Saturn become more important thereafter. That said, slow moving transit contacts always have a big say.

 

January - April 2007: transit stationary KETU closely aspects natal VENUS. Sub-prime loan losses in the US housing market suddenly burst on the scene and became a source of grave concern, causing the US and global financial markets to become volatile.

March - May 2007: transit Jupiter becomes conjunct natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 46' Scorpio 5th house, while also aspecting transit Saturn in Cancer 1st house. During this time, financial stability conditions weakened. (This transit configuration is best known for the mass killing at Virgina Tech university).

January - February 2008: Transit Jupiter in the 6th house comes under the aspect of natal Rahu in the 10th house. This aspect imparts stress to financial stability conditions and concerns about banking.

March, July and November 2007: Transit Jupiter conjuncts natal Venus. The recurring aspect during the year suggests conflict, such as legal foreclosure proceedings involving distressed housing, will become quite noticeable at these times.

August - September 2008: Transit Jupiter in Sagittarius 5th house will become stationary and afflicted by natal Rahu in the 10th house. At the same time, Jupiter will afflict transit Saturn in Leo 2nd house, with Rahu also afflicting Saturn. These transits suggest fresh concerns over financial stability, but also other problems.

 

There are many other interesting transits taking place this year, but please consult the article The year ahead for the USA for a comment on those on http://cosmologer.blogspot.com/.

 

 

Table 2: transits in 2007 - 2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JUPITER

VENUS

SATURN

RAHU

KETU

 

1.1.2007

14°Sc14'

2°Cp06'

0°Le30'R

24°Aq53'

24°Le53'

 

31.1.2007

19°Sc52'

9°Aq35'

28°Cn33'R

22°Aq39'

22°Le39'

 

2.3.2007

23°Sc58'

16°Pi40'

26°Cn10'R

22°Aq10'

22°Le10'

 

1.4.2007

25°Sc46'

22°Ar56'

24°Cn30'R

22°Aq10'

22°Le10'

 

1.5.2007

24°Sc51'R

27°Ta50'

24°Cn18'

20°Aq53'

20°Le53'

 

31.5.2007

21°Sc42'R

0°Cn17'

25°Cn38'

17°Aq59'

17°Le59'

 

30.6.2007

18°Sc04'R

27°Cn15'

28°Cn15'

14°Aq56'

14°Le56'

 

30.7.2007

16°Sc04'R

8°Le53'R

1°Le40'

13°Aq19'

13°Le19'

 

29.8.2007

16°Sc41'

24°Cn53'R

5°Le27'

13°Aq06'D

13°Le06'D

 

28.9.2007

19°Sc50'

28°Cn54'

9°Le07'

12°Aq55'

12°Le55'

 

28.10.2007

24°Sc51'

23°Le45'

12°Le11'

11°Aq16'

11°Le16'

 

27.11.2007

1°Sg06'

26°Vi08'

14°Le07'

8°Aq03'

8°Le03'

 

27.12.2007

7°Sg54'

1°Sc30'

14°Le32'R

5°Aq05'

5°Le05'

 

26.1.2008

14°Sg39'

8°Sg04'

13°Le22'R

3°Aq50'D

3°Le50'D

 

25.2.2008

20°Sg43'

15°Cp04'

11°Le08'R

3°Aq43'

3°Le43'

 

26.3.2008

25°Sg26'

22°Aq09'

8°Le55'R

3°Aq02'

3°Le02'

 

25.4.2008

28°Sg03'

29°Pi10'

7°Le45'R

0°Aq44'

0°Le44'

 

25.5.2008

28°Sg01'R

6°Ta04'

8°Le07'

27°Cp38'

27°Cn38'

 

24.6.2008

25°Sg24'R

12°Ge56'

9°Le56'

25°Cp24'D

25°Cn24'D

 

24.7.2008

21°Sg39'R

19°Cn49'

12°Le51'

24°Cp38'D

24°Cn38'D

 

23.8.2008

18°Sg58'R

26°Le40'

16°Le25'

24°Cp31'

24°Cn31'

 

22.9.2008

18°Sg51'

3°Li25'

20°Le10'

23°Cp48'

23°Cn48'

 

22.10.2008

21°Sg28'

9°Sc55'

23°Le38'

21°Cp39'D

21°Cn39'D

 

21.11.2008

26°Sg14'

15°Sg59'

26°Le18'

18°Cp35'

18°Cn35'

 

21.12.2008

2°Cp26'

20°Cp59'

27°Le40'

16°Cp12'

16°Cn12'

 

20.1.2009

9°Cp23'

23°Aq06'

27°Le26'R

15°Cp22'

15°Cn22'

 

19.2.2009

16°Cp25'

16°Pi59'

25°Le46'R

15°Cp10'D

15°Cn10'D

 

21.3.2009

22°Cp57'

17°Pi21'R

23°Le26'R

14°Cp02'D

14°Cn02'D

 

20.4.2009

28°Cp22'

5°Pi18'

21°Le32'R

11°Cp25'

11°Cn25'

 

20.5.2009

1°Aq56'

20°Pi32'

20°Le55'

8°Cp27'

8°Cn27'

 

19.6.2009

3°Aq00'R

18°Ar37'

21°Le50'

6°Cp39'

6°Cn39'

 

19.7.2009

1°Aq16'R

21°Ta08'

24°Le04'

6°Cp14'

6°Cn14'

 

18.8.2009

27°Cp39'R

25°Ge44'

27°Le14'

6°Cp06'D

6°Cn06'D

 

17.9.2009

24°Cp17'R

1°Le39'

0°Vi54'

4°Cp54'

4°Cn54'

 

17.10.2009

23°Cp11'

8°Vi33'

4°Vi34'

2°Cp02'

2°Cn02'

 

Best wishes,

 

Thor

 

U.S. Housing Starts Probably Stayed Near 1991 Low, Survey Shows By Bob Willis

 

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Housing starts in the U.S. remained near the lowest level since 1991 in January, a sign the deepest real-estate recession in a quarter-century will weigh on the economy for a third year, economists said before a report today.

Commerce Department figures may show housing starts rose 0.4 percent to an annual rate of 1.01 million units, from a 16- year low of 1.006 million in December, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 72 economists. Another report may show consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in January, a slower rate than in the prior month, according to the survey median.

A glut of unsold homes, mounting foreclosures and falling prices signal the housing slump will continue to detract from growth, setting the stage for more interest-rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, citing the housing recession, last week said updated quarterly Fed forecasts to be published today would reflect slower growth projections.

``For 2008 as a whole, construction will continue to fall,'' Richard Moody, chief economist at Mission Residential, a real estate investment firm in Austin, Texas, said before the report. ``When we do hit bottom, we will stick there for some time, as demand will still be constrained by tougher lending standards and jittery credit markets.''

The Commerce Department will release the construction figures at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from annual rates of 950,000 to 1.1 million.

The same report may show building permits, an indicator of future construction, declined 1.7 percent to a 1.05 million pace, the lowest in 16 years, economists said. Forecasts ranged from 990,000 to 1.095 million.

Consumer Prices

Inflation figures, to be released by the Labor Department at the same time, will probably show consumer prices rose 4.2 percent in the 12 months ended in January, according to the survey median.

Core prices, which exclude food and energy, probably increased 0.2 percent in January and were up 2.4 percent from a year earlier, according to economists surveyed.

Investors and economists are betting the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark rate by a half point to 2.5 percent at its next meeting, on March 18, while a majority forecast an additional quarter-point cut in April.

The Fed's quarterly forecasts will be released at 2 p.m., along with minutes of the Jan. 29-30 meeting that led to a half percentage-point rate cut, and a record of the emergency Jan. 21 conference that produced a three-quarter-point reduction.

The Fed's cuts in January, the fastest easing of monetary policy since 1990, came as rising subprime defaults led to a global tightening of credit standards and declines in equity prices. Bernanke and other policy makers have indicated a readiness for further reductions if necessary.

Bernanke's Testimony

The Fed ``will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks,'' Bernanke told Congress last week. ``To date, inflation expectations appear to have remained reasonably well-anchored,'' he said.

The U.S. economy will probably grow at a 0.5 percent pace in the first quarter and a 1 percent rate in the following three months, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists taken the first week of February. Economists surveyed said a recession this year was an even bet.

``Growth looks to be weak but still positive during the first half of the year,'' Bernanke said last week.

Impact on Spending, Jobs

The decline in home construction, exacerbated by tighter credit conditions, is slowing demand for construction materials and appliances, and increasing firings at builders, lenders and retailers. Falling home prices are leaving consumers feeling less wealthy, slowing the spending that makes up two-thirds of the economy.

Rising foreclosures are adding to inventories. Home foreclosures rose 97 percent in December from a year earlier, while an estimated 1.03 percent of homes were in some stage of foreclosure in 2007, RealtyTrac reported Jan. 29.

Home builders are hardest hit. Kimball Hill Inc., a closely held homebuilder active in six states, said Feb. 15 it may file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as demand for new homes tumbles.

``There are substantial doubts about whether the company will be able to continue as a going concern,'' Rolling Meadows Illinois-based Kimball Hill said in a regulatory filing. Bloomberg Survey

================================================================

CPI Core Housing Building

CPI Starts Permits

MOM% MOM% ,000's ,000's

================================================================

Date of Release 02/20 02/20 02/20 02/20

Observation Period Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan.

-------------------------------

Median 0.3% 0.2% 1010 1050

Average 0.3% 0.2% 1015 1040

High Forecast 0.4% 0.3% 1100 1095

Low Forecast 0.1% 0.1% 950 990

Number of Participants 74 74 72 45

Previous 0.4% 0.2% 1006 1068

-------------------------------

4CAST Ltd. 0.3% 0.2% 1020 1050

Action Economics 0.3% 0.2% 1060 1060

Aletti Gestielle SGR 0.4% 0.2% 1030 1050

Allianz Dresdner Economic 0.3% 0.2% 1000 ---

Analytical Synthesis --- --- 980 990

Argus Research Corp. 0.2% 0.3% 1000 ---

Banc of America Securitie 0.4% 0.2% 1050 ---

Banesto 0.3% 0.2% 1010 1040

Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 0.2% 0.2% 975 1040

Bantleon Bank AG 0.2% 0.2% 1050 1050

Barclays Capital 0.3% 0.2% 1010 ---

BBVA 0.3% 0.2% 950 ---

Bear, Stearns & Co. 0.3% 0.2% 980 1050

BMO Capital Markets 0.2% 0.2% 1050 1050

BNP Paribas 0.2% 0.2% 1050 ---

Briefing.com 0.3% 0.2% 1020 1005

Calyon 0.2% 0.2% 970 1035

CEMEX 0.3% 0.2% --- ---

CIBC World Markets 0.4% 0.3% 970 1020

Citi 0.2% 0.2% 1020 1050

ClearView Economics 0.3% 0.2% 1050 ---

Commerzbank AG 0.3% 0.2% 1030 1060

Credit Suisse 0.2% 0.2% 1000 ---

Daiwa Securities America 0.2% 0.2% 1060 ---

Danske Bank 0.2% 0.2% --- ---

DekaBank 0.3% 0.2% 1050 1020

Desjardins Group 0.3% 0.2% 1040 990

Deutsche Bank Securities 0.3% 0.2% 975 1000

Deutsche Postbank AG 0.2% 0.2% 1030 ---

Dresdner Kleinwort 0.3% 0.2% 980 ---

DZ Bank 0.4% 0.2% 975 1000

First Trust Advisors 0.3% 0.2% 1000 ---

Fortis 0.3% 0.3% 1005 ---

FTN Financial 0.3% 0.2% 1000 1000

Global Insight Inc. 0.3% 0.2% 977 1050

Goldman, Sachs & Co. 0.2% 0.2% 1046 ---

H & R Block Financial Advis 0.2% 0.2% 1010 1060

Helaba 0.3% 0.2% 1050 1090

High Frequency Economics 0.2% 0.2% 1100 1006

HSBC Markets 0.3% 0.3% 1020 1040

IDEAglobal 0.3% 0.2% 950 995

Informa Global Markets 0.3% 0.1% 1045 1095

ING Financial Markets --- --- 1000 1035

Insight Economics 0.3% 0.2% 1050 ---

Intesa-SanPaulo 0.3% 0.2% 1005 ---

J.P. Morgan Chase 0.2% 0.2% 1000 1030

Janney Montgomery Scott L 0.4% 0.2% 1020 1085

JPMorgan Private Client 0.2% 0.2% 1010 1010

Landesbank Berlin 0.3% 0.2% 1040 1050

Lehman Brothers 0.2% 0.2% 1020 1040

Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc 0.3% 0.2% --- ---

Merrill Lynch 0.3% 0.2% 980 1020

MFC Global Investment Man 0.2% 0.1% 1006 1050

Moody's Economy.com 0.3% 0.2% 990 ---

Morgan Stanley & Co. 0.2% 0.2% 1000 ---

National Bank Financial 0.2% 0.1% 965 ---

National City Bank 0.3% 0.2% 1060 1040

Nomura Securities Intl. 0.3% 0.2% 1020 1050

Nord/LB 0.3% 0.2% 1000 1050

PNC Bank 0.3% 0.2% 1050 ---

RBS Greenwich Capital 0.3% 0.2% 1030 ---

Ried, Thunberg & Co. 0.3% 0.2% 1025 1050

Scotia Capital 0.2% 0.2% 980 ---

Societe Generale 0.3% 0.2% 1050 ---

Stone & McCarthy Research 0.4% 0.2% --- ---

TD Securities 0.3% 0.2% 1025 ---

Thomson Financial/IFR 0.2% 0.2% 1002 1080

Tullett Prebon 0.4% 0.2% 1010 ---

UBS Securities LLC 0.3% 0.2% 1000 ---

Unicredit MIB 0.3% 0.2% 1000 1050

University of Maryland 0.3% 0.2% 970 1050

Wachovia Corp. 0.1% 0.2% 1020 ---

Wells Fargo & Co. 0.3% 0.2% 1060 1060

WestLB AG 0.3% 0.2% 1000 1050

Westpac Banking Co. 0.4% 0.2% 1036 1068

Wrightson Associates 0.3% 0.2% 1050 1030

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