The role of scientific mundane astrology

March 18, 2008

Dear friends,

Alan Greenspan is by many considered the greatest divinator of financial and economic market trends and by others the architecht of the present financial mess. Whatever you think of him, he is without a doubt a very intelligent man. He as recently written an article about the present financial crisis where he adds some interesting insights that have relevance for our understanding of the potential contribution of scientific mundane astrology.

First, let's review what he has to say about our efforts to understand and model the behavior of humans in the economy and financial market:

"I do not say that the current systems of risk management or econometric forecasting are not in large measure soundly rooted in the real world...But these models do not fully capture what I believe has been, to date...the innate human responses that result in swings between euphoria and fear that repeat themselves generation after generation with little evidence of a learning curve. Asset-price bubbles build and burst today as they have since the early 18th century, when modern competitive markets evolved. To be sure, we tend to label such behavioural responses as non-rational. But forecasters’ concerns should be not whether human response is rational or irrational, only that it is observable and systematic.

This, to me, is the large missing “explanatory variable” in both risk-management and macroeconometric models. Current practice is to introduce notions of “animal spirits”, as John Maynard Keynes put it, through “add factors”. That is, we arbitrarily change the outcome of our model’s equations. Add-factoring, however, is an implicit recognition that models, as we currently employ them, are structurally deficient; it does not sufficiently address the problem of the missing variable."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/edbdbcf6-f360-11dc-b6bc-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

In other words, Greenspan is saying that there is something the scientific and systematic models fail to incorporate and it has to do with how human beings act or react. In this regard, he mentions a "missing variable", but does not propose what that variable may be. However, he says that it is "systematic and observable" in the economic and financial history of the world.

This is where astrology comes in. A major role of scientific mundane astrology, like the Systems' Approach, is to accurately predict the nature and timing of developments and to show when a beneficial/adverse time are likely to take place that either stimulate/disturb people and change their behavior. Scientific astrology has a fundamental role to play in the prediction of the future and can thereby complete the incomplete economic and financial models of today, including models that are used to better manage risk. Indeed, a critical role of astrology is to warn people to be careful when the times become fraught with risk and danger of losses as we are now witnessing. Based on the SAMVA USA chart, has issued warnings of volatility in the financial markets this year which have been described on the SAMVA blog.

Saturday, February 2, 2008

More financial market volatility in 2008

Saturday, January 5, 2008

The troublesome transit of Mars in Gemini

Best wishes,

Thor

http://cosmologer.blogspot.com/

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