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Dear friends,

 

The negative news continues to stream in, adding to the difficulty of the financial institutions in the USA that are most reliant on funding on the financial market, such as the investment banks Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers. Fortunately, the news arrives when the markets are closed for trading. Also, as the news makes clear, now that the Federal Reserve has opened up its coffers to these banks such that "the liquidity issues is off the table". The investment banks can now borrow against the bad debt they hold. Nevertheless, the rating agencies are still worried about the bottom line of the major US investment banks. In any event, the news today is consistent with transit Mercury and Venus passing through the 8th house under the close aspect this weekend of natal Ketu in the SAMVA USA chart.

 

Best wishes,

 

Thor

 

Goldman, Lehman Rating Outlook Cut to Negative by S & P (Update3)

By Zhao Yidi

March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest U.S. securities firm, and smaller rival Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. had their credit-rating outlook cut to negative by Standard & Poor's, which said Wall Street banks' profits may fall as much as 30 percent in the coming year.

``Our current expectation is that net revenue could decline'' at least 20 percent for independent securities firms, S & P said in a statement today. S & P affirmed its long-term credit rating of AA- for Goldman and A+ for Lehman. Both companies are based in New York.

The Federal Reserve's decision last week to open a lending facility for brokers and provide financial support for JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s emergency takeover of Bear Stearns Cos. ``mitigates liquidity concerns,'' S & P said. ``Nonetheless, we see some possibility, were there to be persisting capital markets turmoil and sharply weakening economic conditions, that financial performance could deteriorate significantly.''

JPMorgan, the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, agreed March 16 to buy Bear Stearns in an all-stock deal that values the securities firm at $2.52 a share, or $366 million, based on yesterday's closing price. The collapse of Bear Stearns ranks along with Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. as the biggest in Wall Street history.

Bear Stearns stock, which peaked at $171.51 last year, closed at $30 two days before the firm was forced to accept JPMorgan's terms or face bankruptcy, after customers and lenders abandoned the broker because of concern about a cash shortage. The Fed agreed to provide as much as $30 billion to JPMorgan in order to get the deal done.

`Off the Table'

Goldman, Lehman and Morgan Stanley, the No. 2 securities firm, reported first-quarter earnings last week that beat analysts' estimates. Goldman's $1.51 billion profit was down 53 percent from the same period last year. Lehman's fell 57 percent to $489 million. Morgan Stanley's earnings declined 42 percent to $1.55 billion.

Lehman shares plummeted almost 20 percent March 17 on speculation that the firm might face the same crisis of confidence among customers and lenders that felled Bear Stearns. Richard Fuld, Lehman's chief executive officer, said the Fed's decision to allow brokers to borrow from the central bank ``takes the liquidity issue off the table,'' and the company's shares surged 46 percent the next day, when it reported earnings.

`Market Sentiment'

The ``near-term earnings prospects remain at least somewhat brighter'', S & P said in its statement today. Goldman, Lehman and Morgan Stanley have ``benefited from the strength of equities trading activity,'' while wealth management and asset management businesses have also ``remained relatively strong,'' the ratings company said.

S & P said it still can't ``rule out the possibility that market sentiment will turn more severely against some firms, undermining the effectiveness of even the most extensive preparations against liquidity stresses.''

Goldman, Lehman and Morgan Stanley said March 19 that they had borrowed from the Fed's new lending program for Wall Street firms. The Primary Dealer Credit Facility, announced by the central bank on March 16, allows the brokers to borrow overnight at a 2.5 percent interest rate, the same charged to commercial banks.

The Fed decided to become the lender of last resort to the 20 primary dealers of government debt two days after providing emergency financing for Bear Stearns.

Moody's Investors Service lowered its outlook on Lehman Brothers to stable from positive on March 17. The company's long-term credit rating was affirmed by Moody's at A1.

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Saturday, March 22, 2008 11:52:30 AMRe: Re: VISA

 

Dear Peter,

 

Regarding the issue of what time to use for the IPO chart - opening time (OT) or first trade time (FTT) I can share the IPO chart for Lehman Bros stock (ticker symbol: LEH) on May 2, 1994 in New York city (location of both stock exchange and headquarters of the firm). The OT chart gives 15° 39' Gemini rising. This chart is quite good and the FMs in it, the nodes are not afflicting but badly placed. The chart suggests good fortunes for this firm and the share price has risen steadily from 1998, when it was @ $15-20 to $85 in early 2007. Since then it has been highly volatile. The chart has been running Rahu-Rahu period since August 16, 2005 and will shift to Jupiter sub-period on April 28, 2008.

 

That said, it is a stretch to explain the volatility in the share price of Lehman Brothers in the past year based on this chart. We could say that as Rahu is badly placed in the chart, it could explain some turbulence. At the same time, we could say the share price is mostly reflecting the developments in the general market, related to the fortunes of Jupiter and Sun in the SAMVA USA chart.

 

The share price peaked @ $85 in early February 2007 - after a decade long rise. This is the time when the market peaked for financial companies. When the turbulence in late February 2007 broke out, the price of LEH shifted to @ $75. In July, when the first German banks began to report loan losses based on their acquisition of structured investment vehicles (SIVs) consisting mostly of sub-prime loans, the share price dropped further still, to a tranding range @ $50-$65. The price was at the lower range during August and September 2008, and then shifted slightly up for the remainder of the year, even as transit Saturn became conjunct the transit nodal axis. In February and March 2008, the share price sank further and went below $50 for the first time in many years in March. All hell broke lose on March 17th, 2008, when the share price drop was

simply stunning. On that day, the share price went down 40% at point during the session, albeit managing to recover sufficiently by close of business that the drop was ONLY 20%. In recent days the price has risen swiftly and the latest close was again near to $50.

 

In sum, there seems to be little in the chart itself, aside from the unhelpful sub-period, to suggest this wild ride in the share price. Certainly, this chart seems to do little to help resolve the question of opening or first trade times. At the same time, the issue of the headquarters vs. stock exchange location becomes mute as both are located in the same city. Hence, the question is only if the FTT chart (if the time can be located) gives a better fit?

 

That said, as you suggest, Peter, we can look to see what happens in coming months. As for Lehman, we can see if its share price improves from late April. Even if Jupiter is debilitated in the chart, it is well placed and recieving good aspects and aspecting good planets. So, some improvement, especially when natal and transit Jupiter are not afflicted, should be seen in the share price after that time if this chart is the right one.

 

Best wishes,

 

Thor

 

 

peter bo <ght451SAMVA Sent: Thursday, March 20, 2008 7:23:50 AM Re: VISA

 

Dear Thor & Group,

 

Thanks for your feedback on the VISA chart. I am still not convinced as to the value of casting the chart at the company headquarters. My instinctive feeling would be to use the actual place of the "birth" - the NYSE.

 

That being said, perhaps we can use the very solid "birth time" for VISA to test the value of using the company headquarters Vs the exchange location?

 

Thor, did you cast the chart using the NYSE details? If so, how does that look? Surely, we should be able to see which is correct, as trading unfolds over the next few months. We now have 2 exactly timed stock charts - Blackstone & Visa. Both are financial companies - one listed at the peak of the market - Blackstone and the other perhaps somewhere in the area of the low (?) - Visa

 

Good luck,

 

Peter

 

 

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