Length of bear market

[Guest guest]

Dear friends

 

The past is sometimes a helpful guide to the range of possible outcomes for the future, especially when observing some repeated historical process. The following table shows major bear markets in stocks in US history. While each episode is different, they all have one thing in common, there is a period of great optimism followed by a period of singular pessimism. Moreover, often the extent or length of the rise in the optimistic phase may be a guide to the extent of the drop and its length that follows. Likely the speed of adjustment is also important. In other words, if the drop is sudden and profound, possibly the duration is shorter. Contrarywise, if the drop is slow and extended, the duration may be longer.

 

In any event, we are studying the length of the pessimistic period in this instance. All of the bear markets studied here have seen declines in share prices in excess of 40%. Already the present bear market is the 4th biggest in terms of magnitude of decline. Nevertheless, the decline is only half of what was seen in the Great Depression of the 1930s. As for duration, it is certainly not one of the largest in terms of time it took to go from peak and reach bottom. Then again, we are likely not yet at the bottom. The average duration is 139 weeks (2,65 years) and the present bear market has lasted for 71 weeks (1,35 years) so far. In other words, it could go for another 70 weeks to only reach the average! The longest bear market on record lasted 325 months (6,25 years)!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dow Jones Bear Markets

 

 

1885 to 2009: -40% Declines or more

 

 

Date of

Weekly Closing Prices

 

Time in

 

#

Bear Bottom

High

Low

% Decline

Weeks

 

1

11 Jul 1932

380,3

41,2

-89,16%

149

 

2

27.apr.42

194,1

94,1

-51,51%

236

 

3

23 Nov 1907

78,1

40,8

-47,79%

96

 

4

20.feb.09

14.093,1

7.365,7

-47,74%

71

 

5

4.apr.38

194,1

103,0

-46,94%

56

 

6

29 Aug 1921

118,6

65,3

-44,92%

94

 

7

09 Dec 1974

1.047,5

577,6

-44,86%

100

 

8

08 Aug 1896

39,2

21,6

-44,77%

325

 

9

14 Nov 1903

59,2

32,8

-44,66%

124

 

Source: M.J. Lundsen and Dow Jones

 

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/lundeen111208.html

 

Let´s look at what the SAMVA USA chart suggests.

 

PERIODS

 

The question is how long this beark market may last. While it is difficult to predict financial market prices as they are a combination of so many things, we can examine what the astrological factors suggest. First, let us note that the Venus-Saturn sub-period lasts until April 19, 2012, when the more favourable Venus-Mercury period begins. Will the present beark market trend last for the entire bukhti and endure for 109 months? Or will it last into or through the Mercury sub-period. Interestingly, market crashes have been seen in the period of Mercury as 3rd lord of courage and general indicator of commerce. In this case the period could last upto the Sun major period in April 2016, or 157 months. Very likely it will have ended well before the Sun major period, which should be a very positive period.

 

TRANSITS

Alternatively, we can see if the transits give us some idea. Will the present bear market continue until transit Saturn has at entered strength in Virgo and the 3rd house of the SAMVA USA chart this fall? has at least suggested an improvement then. Moreover, he does not expect further pronounced volatility on the down side. If the bear market ends then, it will have lasted for about 80 months, which is not a very long historical bear market. Alternatively, it could last beyond the summer of 2010, which is when sub-period lord Saturn becomes involved in some very difficult aspects. It would then have lasted for just over 90 months. Which would still be less than the average.

 

So, while it is hard to say such things with any amount of confidence, we can keep these factors in mind as we continue to follow the developments.

 

Other views are welcome on this.

 

Best wishes,

 

Thor