Forecasters: US Economy worse in '09, better in '10

February 23, 2009

Dear friends,

The US Federal Reserve and now the National Association of Business Forecasters have recently predicted a deep recession in 2009 but for the economy then to begin to improve in 2010.

Forecasters: Economy worse in '09, better in '10

Reuters – Mon Feb 23, 2:06 am ET

WASHINGTON – Brace yourself: The recession is projected to worsen this year. The country stands to lose a sizable chunk of economic activity in 2009 as consumers at home and abroad retrench in the face of persistent economic troubles. And the U.S. unemployment rate — now at 7.6 percent, the highest in more than 16 years — is expected hit a peak of 9 percent this year. That gloomy outlook came from leading forecasters in the latest survey by the National Association for Business Economics to be released Monday. The new estimates are roughly in line with other recent projections, including those released last week by the Federal Reserve. "The steady drumbeat of weak economic and financial market data have made business economists decidedly more pessimistic on the economic outlook for the next several quarters," said

NABE president Chris Varvares, head of Macroeconomic Advisers. All told, Varvares and his fellow forecasters now expect the economy to shrink by 1.9 percent this year, a much deeper contraction than the 0.2 percent dip projected in the fall. If the new forecast is correct, it would mark the first time since 1991 the economy actually contracted over a full year and would be the worst showing since 1982, when the country had suffered through a severe recession.

http://news./s/ap/20090223/ap_on_bi_ge/troubled_economy

This prediction would be consistent with what has predicted for the US economy based on the SAMVA USA chart, that some improvement would be there after transit Saturn has entered Virgo and the 3rd house.

At the same time, the US stock market is now headed lower, much lower. The Dow hasn´t been this low since May 1997. In other words, investors are not optimistic at all about the prospects for the economy in coming quarters, suggesting there is worse ahead before any improvement is felt.

Best wishes,

Thor