Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

[Guest guest]

Hello list,

 

The most famous investor in the USA has now written about the risk of a dollar meltdown (see below). Such alarm is coming at a time when it has been predicted based on the SAMVA USA chart that there would be concerns about us debt rising, rising interest rates, drop in the dollar and a rise in inflation. Interestingly Buffet discusses these issues in terms of the mid 1940s just as is done the article about the Astrology of increasing pubic debt".

 

Financial markets ease as predicted (July 31, 2009)

"...in the Autumn of 2009, transit Jupiter as 6th lord of financial stability, conflict and health matters, will become stationary on top of natal Sun as 2nd lord of wealth, status and political leadership at 24° Capricorn and in the 7th house of foreign matters. This contact is likely to trigger fresh concerns ... increased financial stability issues reflected in a rise in the long term interest rates or a drop in the value of the US dollar... "http://cosmologer.blogspot.com/2009/07/financial-markets-ease-as-predicted.html

 

Astrology of increasing public debt (March 21, 2009)

"The debts of the government rose sharply during WW II, especially from 1942 to 1945... the most notable affliction involved transit Jupiter at 24° Cancer being opposite natal Sun at 24° Capricorn...In the autumn of 2009, US government debt is likely to register further increases and may reach high levels, albeit not as high as during the 1940s."

http://cosmologer.blogspot.com/2009/03/astrology-of-increasing-public-debt.html

 

Predictions for the USA in 2009 (December 31, 2008)

"From September to November, transit Jupiter, as 6th lord of conflict, will be stationary at 23° Capricorn and the 7th house. In this degree, Jupiter is conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun of SAMVA USA chart... Concerns over ... financial stability may reemerge...at that time."

http://cosmologer.blogspot.com/2008/12/predictions-for-usa-in-2009.html

 

 

 

Op-Ed ContributorThe Greenback EffectBy WARREN E. BUFFETTPublished: August 18, 2009IN nature, every action has consequences, a phenomenon called the butterfly effect. These consequences, moreover, are not necessarily proportional. For example, doubling the carbon dioxide we belch into the atmosphere may far more than double the subsequent problems for society. Realizing this, the world properly worries about greenhouse emissions.The butterfly effect reaches into the financial world as well. Here, the United States is spewing a potentially damaging substance into our economy — greenback emissions.To be sure, we’ve been doing this for a reason I resoundingly applaud. Last fall, our financial system stood on the brink of a collapse that threatened a depression. The crisis required our government to display wisdom, courage and decisiveness. Fortunately, the Federal Reserve and key economic

officials in both the Bush and Obama administrations responded more than ably to the need.They made mistakes, of course. How could it have been otherwise when supposedly indestructible pillars of our economic structure were tumbling all around them? A meltdown, though, was avoided, with a gusher of federal money playing an essential role in the rescue.The United States economy is now out of the emergency room and appears to be on a slow path to recovery. But enormous dosages of monetary medicine continue to be administered and, before long, we will need to deal with their side effects. For now, most of those effects are invisible and could indeed remain latent for a long time. Still, their threat may be as ominous as that posed by the financial crisis itself.To understand this threat, we need to look at where we stand historically. If we leave aside the war-impacted years of 1942 to 1946, the largest annual deficit the

United States has incurred since 1920 was 6 percent of gross domestic product. This fiscal year, though, the deficit will rise to about 13 percent of G.D.P., more than twice the non-wartime record. In dollars, that equates to a staggering $1.8 trillion. Fiscally, we are in uncharted territory.Because of this gigantic deficit, our country’s “net debt†(that is, the amount held publicly) is mushrooming. During this fiscal year, it will increase more than one percentage point per month, climbing to about 56 percent of G.D.P. from 41 percent. Admittedly, other countries, like Japan and Italy, have far higher ratios and no one can know the precise level of net debt to G.D.P. at which the United States will lose its reputation for financial integrity. But a few more years like this one and we will find out.An increase in federal debt can be financed in three ways: borrowing from foreigners, borrowing from our own citizens or,

through a roundabout process, printing money. Let’s look at the prospects for each individually — and in combination.The current account deficit — dollars that we force-feed to the rest of the world and that must then be invested — will be $400 billion or so this year. Assume, in a relatively benign scenario, that all of this is directed by the recipients — China leads the list — to purchases of United States debt. Never mind that this all-Treasuries allocation is no sure thing: some countries may decide that purchasing American stocks, real estate or entire companies makes more sense than soaking up dollar-denominated bonds. Rumblings to that effect have recently increased.Then take the second element of the scenario — borrowing from our own citizens. Assume that Americans save $500 billion, far above what they’ve saved recently but perhaps consistent with the changing national mood. Finally, assume that these citizens

opt to put all their savings into United States Treasuries (partly through intermediaries like banks).Even with these heroic assumptions, the Treasury will be obliged to find another $900 billion to finance the remainder of the $1.8 trillion of debt it is issuing. Washington’s printing presses will need to work overtime.Slowing them down will require extraordinary political will. With government expenditures now running 185 percent of receipts, truly major changes in both taxes and outlays will be required. A revived economy can’t come close to bridging that sort of gap.Legislators will correctly perceive that either raising taxes or cutting expenditures will threaten their re-election. To avoid this fate, they can opt for high rates of inflation, which never require a recorded vote and cannot be attributed to a specific action that any elected official takes. In fact, John Maynard Keynes long ago laid out a

road map for political survival amid an economic disaster of just this sort: “By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.... The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.â€I want to emphasize that there is nothing evil or destructive in an increase in debt that is proportional to an increase in income or assets. As the resources of individuals, corporations and countries grow, each can handle more debt. The United States remains by far the most prosperous country on earth, and its debt-carrying capacity will grow in the future just as it has in the past.But it was a wise man who said, “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.†We don’t want our country to evolve into the banana-republic

economy described by Keynes.Our immediate problem is to get our country back on its feet and flourishing — “whatever it takes†still makes sense. Once recovery is gained, however, Congress must end the rise in the debt-to-G.D.P. ratio and keep our growth in obligations in line with our growth in resources.Unchecked carbon emissions will likely cause icebergs to melt. Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly cause the purchasing power of currency to melt. The dollar’s destiny lies with Congress.Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

Thor

 

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologersamva Sent: Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

Hello list members,

 

There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.

 

 

Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)

By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c

 

The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as credible as it was.

 

To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a country. Further,

 

“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon. The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September 2000)

 

In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart, respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart. Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its foreign

debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange rate would suggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing to invest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange rate risk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency even if its value tends to fluctuate.

 

To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to see the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the

chart and transit.

 

Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency status?

 

Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30' Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23° 44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests that concerns about financial stability and inflation may

place a strain on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency status. However, given the strength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US should not be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in the chart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule, which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the national life, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. This would concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orb is around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orb is slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such that aspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as per their natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been some setbacks

or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty to one hundred years.

 

Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s. From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a "disorderly adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their growing foreign exchange

reserves. So we can see that the international position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to the USA.

 

Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in

this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.

 

The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.

 

Thor

[Guest guest]

Hello list,

 

The dollar continues weak.

 

Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy higher-yielding assets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg

 

The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally adverse.

Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44' Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17° 47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo - hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02' Cancer/H1.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello list,

 

Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.

 

Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000

Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence," he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending. The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its highest level this year, from $1.4337 late

Monday, before backtracking to $1.4490 in later trading.

http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x=0 & .v=1

 

Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T

09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill

The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond $12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-12t

 

Thor

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello Rajeev,

 

Thanks for the update.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharolSAMVA Sent: Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

 

>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€

 

This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.

 

>>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.â€

 

This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.

 

 

 

On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

 

 

 

 

Hello list,

 

Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar. In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the economic interests involved.

Thor

 

 

SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

 

“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009

“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.â€

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologersamva Sent: Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AMWill the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello list members,

 

There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.

 

 

Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)

By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c

 

The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as credible as it was.

 

To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a country. Further,

 

“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon. The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September 2000)

 

In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart, respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart. Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its foreign debt than the expectations about the future

value of its exchange rate would suggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing to invest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange rate risk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency even if its value tends to fluctuate.

 

To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to see the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and transit.

 

Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency status?

 

Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30' Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23° 44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain on the dollar strength,

including concerns about its reserve currency status. However, given the strength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US should not be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in the chart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule, which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the national life, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. This would concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orb is around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orb is slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such that aspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as per their natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been some setbacks or a visible trend worsening in this

situation in the past fifty to one hundred years.

 

Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s. From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a "disorderly adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international

position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to the USA.

 

Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in this may take place, the

fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.

 

The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.

 

Thor

[Guest guest]

Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stock markets!

RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hello list,

 

The dollar continues weak.

 

Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy higher-yielding assets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg

 

The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally adverse.

Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44' Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17° 47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo - hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02' Cancer/H1.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA

Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

Hello list,

 

Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.

 

Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000

Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive investors away from the " safe haven " dollar and into emerging-market currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FXSolutions. " The Chinese have serious influence, " he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending. The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its highest level this year, from $1.4337 late

Monday, before backtracking to $1.4490 in later trading.

http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x=0 & .v=1

 

Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T

09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill

The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond $12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-12t

 

Thor

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA

Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello Rajeev,

 

Thanks for the update.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharolSAMVA

Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

 

>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”

 

 

This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.

 

 >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.”

 

 

This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.

 

 

 

On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

 

 

 

 

 

Hello list,

 

Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar. In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the economic interests involved.

 

Thor

 

 

SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

 

“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009

“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.”

  

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologersamva

Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AMWill the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello list members,

 

There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.

 

 

Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)

By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c

 

The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as credible as it was.

 

To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a country. Further,

 

“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon. The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the currency of a particular country.” (Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September 2000)

 

In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart, respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart. Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its foreign debt than the expectations about the future

value of its exchange rate would suggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing to invest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange rate risk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency even if its value tends to fluctuate.

 

To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has traditionally favoured a " Strong dollar " such that it would prefer to see the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed a policy of " Benign neglect " such that the value of the dollar on foreign exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and transit.

 

Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency status?

 

Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30' Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23° 44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain on the dollar strength,

including concerns about its reserve currency status. However, given the strength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US should not be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in the chart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule, which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the national life, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. This would concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orb is around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orb is slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such that aspects within  a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as per their natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been some setbacks or a visible trend worsening in this

situation in the past fifty to one hundred years.

 

Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s. From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a " disorderly adjustment " or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international

position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to the USA.

 

Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in this may take place, the

fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.

 

The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.

 

Thor  

[Guest guest]

Hello Rajeev,

 

In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, but there are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periods of stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, in many cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have to admit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time in order to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to the point where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at any given time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention on such financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I follow the transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also in this regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like Vyas Munidas, have further insights into this area of the

national life in terms of the SAMVA USA chart?

 

Thor

 

 

 

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharolSAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Thor,

Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.

That is how they are related.

 

How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stock markets!

 

 

Rajeev

On Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

 

 

 

 

Hello list,

 

The dollar continues weak.

 

Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy higher-yielding assets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg

 

The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally adverse.

Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44' Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17° 47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo - hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02' Cancer/H1.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM

 

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

Hello list,

 

Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.

 

Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000

Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence," he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending. The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its highest level this year, from $1.4337 late

Monday, before backtracking to $1.4490 in later trading.

http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x=0 & .v=1

 

Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T

09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill

The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond $12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-12t

 

Thor

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Hello Rajeev,

 

Thanks for the update.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharolSAMVA Sent: Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

 

>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€

 

This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.

 

>>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.â€

 

This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.

 

 

 

On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

 

 

 

 

Hello list,

 

Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar. In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the economic interests involved.

Thor

 

 

SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

 

“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009

“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.â€

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologersamva Sent: Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AMWill the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello list members,

 

There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.

 

 

Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)

By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c

 

The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as credible as it was.

 

To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a country. Further,

 

“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon. The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September 2000)

 

In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart, respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart. Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its foreign debt than the expectations about the future

value of its exchange rate would suggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing to invest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange rate risk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency even if its value tends to fluctuate.

 

To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to see the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and transit.

 

Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency status?

 

Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30' Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23° 44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain on the dollar strength,

including concerns about its reserve currency status. However, given the strength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US should not be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in the chart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule, which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the national life, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. This would concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orb is around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orb is slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such that aspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as per their natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been some setbacks or a visible trend worsening in this

situation in the past fifty to one hundred years.

 

Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s. From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a "disorderly adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international

position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to the USA.

 

Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in this may take place, the

fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.

 

The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

 

1 of 1 Photo(s)

[Guest guest]

Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,

 

Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at this time. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend for lower values would also be there.

 

In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows that the US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not. More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors are responsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar more than equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?

 

The problem is made more difficult given the international role of the dollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.

 

The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involving the USA, these price measures tend to move together (especially to the down side). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.

 

Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlation

http://www.philstockworld.com/2009/08/25/banks-sentiment-and-the-long-term-dollar-equity-correlation/

 

Graph

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SpNbtKdobnI/AAAAAAAAAJo/WeHn17EGdLo/s1600-h/00binve-001--08--USD-SPX-long-term-correlation.png

 

The US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is

 

1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollars when turbulence affects other parts of the world,

2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place their investible surpluses of money there,

3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oil and gold in global markets

4. a quotation currency, such that transfers of funds between different currencies may go through the dollar first, due its international acceptability.

 

 

 

 

Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there would be pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, such that it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars, the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of a deflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were to emerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US government has gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value of the dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of their substantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reason that it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency, backed by an international agency, like the IMF.

 

In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamental factors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likely influence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.

 

Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared to reign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attract funds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up at that time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise in interest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities, which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy, would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.

 

Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak. The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin to expect the economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend, could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest rates relatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.

 

Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view of other national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All these developments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better than others, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and vice versa, in a ceaseless search for yield.

 

In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could be expected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge. How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquire a broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likely policy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is all about. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it more interesting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insights into such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop such analysis would also be quite demanding.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate medium and long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and careful analysis. Charts of other key nations also require identification and confidence to consider.The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1 Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, but there are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periods of stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, in many cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have to admit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time in order to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to the point where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at any given time with confidence. Some astrologers

devote all their attention on such financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I follow the transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also in this regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like Vyas Munidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in terms of the SAMVA USA chart?Thor________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharolSAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That

is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stock markets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a >year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record >low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy >higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally >adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57'

Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun >at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44' >Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord >Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17° >47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo - >hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord >Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02' >Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer>SAMVA >Sent:

Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold >prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors >switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders >this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive >investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market >currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese >government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's >policy of buying bonds also drove the

dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani, >chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence," >he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its >buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending. >The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its >highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to >$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x=0 & .v=1>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond >$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests >about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s >record debt, which has been central to

Republican attacks against >Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s >deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.>http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-12t>>Thor>>>>________________________________ Cosmologer <cosmologer>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>>Thor>>>>________________________________Rajeev

Bharol <rajeev.bharol>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into >>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected >>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental > >>resilience

of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in > >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has > >>passed.â€>>>>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right >now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:>>>>Hello list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar. >>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on >>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the >>initiative by the UN officials in

Geneva Switzerland in this regard is >>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the >>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into >>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected >>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international >>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it >>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the >>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its >>international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take

>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of >>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent >>after the transit has passed.â€>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer>>samva >>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about >>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to

Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the >>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a >>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money >>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market >>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a >>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their >>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback >>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s >>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency >>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace >>the dollar as the

dominant place to store reserves.>>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large >>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they >>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as >>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the >>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a >>country. Further,>>>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the >>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon. >>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the >>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh

>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the >>currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September >>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart, >>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house >>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an >>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an >>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In >>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the >>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of >>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a >>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held

>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve >>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart. >>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its >>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange >>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing to invest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange rate risk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency even if its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA >>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the >>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects >>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the

strength of >>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has >>traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to see >>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed >>a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign >>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The >>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but >>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going >>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and >>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord >>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the >>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun

aspects >>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental >>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the >>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be >>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the >>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency >>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30' >>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23° >>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to >>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter >>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to >>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing

>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise >>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry >>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it >>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction >>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests >>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain >>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency >>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US should not be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in the chart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule, which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the national life, but limited by the

extent of the natal influence of the aspect. This would concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orb is around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orb is slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such that aspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as per their natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been some setbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty to one hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the >>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a >>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar >>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s. >>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus

on its trade >>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to >>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a "disorderly >>adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this >>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on >>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a >>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and >>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their >>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international >>position of the dollar hasweakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to the USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of >>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its

international >>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of >>also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and >>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of >>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors >>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk >>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could >>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in >>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and >>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely >>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in >>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on >>the

strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>---

[Guest guest]

Dear Thor,

 

Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, the

analysis starts at the beginning.

 

 

Best regards,

 

Vyas Munidas

 

-

" Cosmologer " <cosmologer

<SAMVA >

Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,

 

Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at this

time. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend for

lower values would also be there.

 

In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows that

the US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not.

More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors are

responsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar more

than equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?

 

The problem is made more difficult given the international role of the

dollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.

 

The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involving

the USA, these price measures tend to move together (especially to the down

side). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.

 

Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlation

http://www.philstockworld.com/2009/08/25/banks-sentiment-and-the-long-term-dolla\

r-equity-correlation/

 

Graph

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SpNbtKdobnI/AAAAAAAAAJo/WeHn17EGdLo/s1600-\

h/00binve-001--08--USD-SPX-long-term-correlation.png

 

 

The US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is

 

1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollars

when turbulence affects other parts of the world,

2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place their

investible surpluses of money there,

3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oil

and gold in global markets

4. a quotation currency, such that transfers of funds between different

currencies may go through the dollar first, due its international

acceptability.

 

Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there would

be pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, such

that it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars,

the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of a

deflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were to

emerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US government

has gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value of

the dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of their

substantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reason

that it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency,

backed by an international agency, like the IMF.

 

In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamental

factors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likely

influence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.

 

Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared to

reign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attract

funds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up at

that time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise in

interest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities,

which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy,

would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.

 

Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak.

The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin to

expect the economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend,

could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest rates

relatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.

 

Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view of

other national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All these

developments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better than

others, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and vice

versa, in a ceaseless search for yield.

 

In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could be

expected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge.

How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquire

a broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likely

policy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is all

about. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it more

interesting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insights

into such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop such

analysis would also be quite demanding.

 

Thor

 

 

________________________________

Vyas Munidas <muni>

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Dear Thor and Rajeev,

 

Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate medium

and long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and careful

analysis. Charts of other key nations also require identification and

confidence to consider.

 

The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.

 

 

Best regards,

 

Vyas Munidas

 

-

" Cosmologer " <cosmologer

<SAMVA >

Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1

Attachment]

 

 

Hello Rajeev,

 

In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, but

there are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periods

of stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, in

many cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have to

admit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time in

order to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to the

point where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at any

given time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention on

such financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I follow

the transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also in

this regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like Vyas

Munidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in terms

of the SAMVA USA chart?

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

________________________________

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

 

Thor,

 

Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.

That is how they are related.

 

How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stock

markets!

 

 

Rajeev

 

On Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

 

 

>Hello list,

>

>The dollar continues weak.

>

>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs

>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a

>year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record

>low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy

>higher-yielding assets.

>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg

>

>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally

>adverse.

>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun

>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'

>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord

>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°

>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo -

>hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord

>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'

>Cancer/H1.

>

>Thor

>

>

>

>

>

________________________________

Cosmologer <cosmologer

>SAMVA

>Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM

>

>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>

>

>

>

>

>Hello list,

>

>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.

>

>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000

>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT

>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold

>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors

>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders

>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive

>investors away from the " safe haven " dollar and into emerging-market

>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese

>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's

>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,

>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. " The Chinese have serious influence, "

>he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its

>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.

>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its

>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to

>$1.4490 in later

trading.

>http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x\

=0 & .v=1

>

>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T

>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill

>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond

>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests

>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s

>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against

>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s

>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.

>http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-1\

2t

>

>Thor

>

>

>

>

________________________________

Cosmologer <cosmologer

>SAMVA

>Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM

>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>

>

>

>

>Hello Rajeev,

>

>Thanks for the update.

>

>Thor

>

>

>

>

________________________________

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol

>SAMVA

>Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM

>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>

>

>

>

>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into

>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected

>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€

>

>

>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.

>

>

>

> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental

> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in

> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has

> >>passed.â€

>

>

>

>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right

>now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

>

>

>>Hello list,

>>

>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.

>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on

>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the

>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is

>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the

>>economic interests involved.

>>

>>Thor

>>

>>

>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into

>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected

>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€

>

>

>

>

> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009

>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international

>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it

>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the

>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its

>>international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take

>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of

>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent

>>after the transit has passed.â€

>>

>>

________________________________

Cosmologer <cosmologer

>>samva

>>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM

>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>>

>>

>>Hello list members,

>>

>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about

>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.

>>

>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)

>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman

>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the

>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a

>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money

>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market

>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a

>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their

>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback

>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s

>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency

>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace

>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.

>>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c

>>

>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large

>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they

>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as

>>credible as it was.

>>

>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the

>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a

>>country. Further,

>>

>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the

>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.

>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the

>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh

>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the

>>currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September

>>2000)

>>

>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,

>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house

>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an

>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an

>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In

>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the

>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of

>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a

>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held

>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve

>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart.

>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its

>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange

>>rate would

suggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing to

invest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange rate

risk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency even

if its value tends to fluctuate.

>>

>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA

>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the

>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects

>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of

>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has

>>traditionally favoured a " Strong dollar " such that it would prefer to see

>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed

>>a policy of " Benign neglect " such that the value of the dollar on foreign

>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The

>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but

>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going

>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and

>>transit.

>>

>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord

>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the

>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects

>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental

>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the

>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be

>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the

>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency

>>status?

>>

>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'

>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°

>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to

>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter

>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to

>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing

>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise

>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry

>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it

>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction

>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests

>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain

>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency

>>status. However, given the

strength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US should

not be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in the

chart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,

which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the national

life, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. This

would concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orb

is around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orb

is slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such that

aspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as per

their natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been some

setbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty to

one hundred years.

>>

>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the

>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a

>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar

>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.

>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade

>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to

>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a " disorderly

>>adjustment " or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this

>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on

>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a

>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and

>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their

>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international

>>position of the dollar has

weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to

the USA.

>>

>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of

>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international

>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of

>>also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and

>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of

>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors

>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk

>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could

>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in

>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and

>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely

>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in

>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on

>>the strengths of currency

strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the

transit has passed.

>>

>>The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.

>>

>>Thor

>>

>>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

---

 

 

[Guest guest]

Dear Vyas,

 

Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equities as the question was raised on list.

 

As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sun and Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would need to consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps can give guidance on that.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, the analysis starts at the beginning.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AMRe:

Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at this time. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend for lower values would also be there.In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows that the US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not. More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors are responsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar more than equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?The problem is made more difficult given the international role of the dollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involving the USA, these price measures tend to move together

(especially to the down side). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlationhttp://www.philstockworld.com/2009/08/25/banks-sentiment-and-the-long-term-dollar-equity-correlation/Graphhttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SpNbtKdobnI/AAAAAAAAAJo/WeHn17EGdLo/s1600-h/00binve-001--08--USD-SPX-long-term-correlation.pngThe US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollars when turbulence affects other parts of the world,2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place their investible surpluses of money there,3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oil and gold in global markets4. a quotation currency, such that transfers of funds between different currencies may go through the

dollar first, due its international acceptability.Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there would be pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, such that it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars, the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of a deflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were to emerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US government has gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value of the dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of their substantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reason that it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency, backed by an international agency, like the IMF.In any event, such factors need to be considered with other

fundamental factors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likely influence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared to reign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attract funds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up at that time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise in interest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities, which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy, would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak. The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin to expect the economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend, could then rise.

During the early growth phase, with interest rates relatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view of other national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All these developments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better than others, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and vice versa, in a ceaseless search for yield.In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could be expected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge. How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquire a broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likely policy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is all about. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it more

interesting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insights into such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop such analysis would also be quite demanding.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate mediumand long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and carefulanalysis. Charts of other key nations also require identification andconfidence to consider.The

one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, butthere are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periodsof stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, inmany cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have toadmit that I haven't been interested

enough to devote sufficient time inorder to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to thepoint where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at anygiven time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention onsuch financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I followthe transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also inthis regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like VyasMunidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in termsof the SAMVA USA chart?Thor________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharolSAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stockmarkets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a>year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record>low borrowing costs encouraged

investors to sell the greenback and buy>higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally>adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo ->hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'>Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped

drive>investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence,">he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to>$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x=0 & .v=1>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The

Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.>http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-12t>>Thor>>>>________________________________ Cosmologer <cosmologer>SAMVA >Tuesday, September

8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>>Thor>>>>________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be

reflected>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has> >>passed.â€>>>>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right>now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:>>>>Hello

list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the>>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international>>position of

the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its>>international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent>>after the transit has passed.â€>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer>>samva >>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US

dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the

greenback>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.>>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as>>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a>>country. Further,>>>>“It is the power of the state which is

shown through the strength of the>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the>>currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September>>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good,

although the>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart.>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange>>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing toinvest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange raterisk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency evenif its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as

6th lord in the SAMVA>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has>>traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to see>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed>>a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart

and>>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency>>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely

subject to>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency>>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US shouldnot be adversely

harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in thechart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the nationallife, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. Thiswould concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orbis around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orbis slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such thataspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as pertheir natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been somesetbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty toone hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also

put a>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a "disorderly>>adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international>>position of the dollar hasweakened

progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits tothe USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of>>also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and>>store of value in international markets, even

if the trends will likely>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on>>the strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after thetransit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>---

[Guest guest]

Hello my dear Thor, For equities Mars, Sun and the houses third, eleventh and fifth can be considered.

 

www.YourNetAstrologer.comA-105, South City II, Gurgaon 122018-01, (India).Phones: 91 124 2219240 Mobile phone: 91 9811016333

 

-

Cosmologer

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 8:23 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

Dear Vyas,

 

Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equities as the question was raised on list.

 

As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sun and Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would need to consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps can give guidance on that.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, the analysis starts at the beginning.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at this time. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend for lower values would also be there.In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows that the US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not. More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors are responsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar more than equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?The problem is made more difficult given the international role of the dollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involving the USA, these price measures tend to move together (especially to the down side). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlationhttp://www.philstockworld.com/2009/08/25/banks-sentiment-and-the-long-term-dollar-equity-correlation/Graphhttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SpNbtKdobnI/AAAAAAAAAJo/WeHn17EGdLo/s1600-h/00binve-001--08--USD-SPX-long-term-correlation.pngThe US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollars when turbulence affects other parts of the world,2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place their investible surpluses of money there,3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oil and gold in global markets4. a quotation currency, such that transfers of funds between different currencies may go through the dollar first, due its international acceptability.Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there would be pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, such that it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars, the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of a deflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were to emerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US government has gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value of the dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of their substantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reason that it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency, backed by an international agency, like the IMF.In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamental factors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likely influence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared to reign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attract funds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up at that time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise in interest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities, which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy, would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak. The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin to expect the economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend, could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest rates relatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view of other national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All these developments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better than others, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and vice versa, in a ceaseless search for yield.In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could be expected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge. How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquire a broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likely policy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is all about. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it more interesting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insights into such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop such analysis would also be quite demanding.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate mediumand long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and carefulanalysis. Charts of other key nations also require identification andconfidence to consider.The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, butthere are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periodsof stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, inmany cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have toadmit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time inorder to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to thepoint where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at anygiven time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention onsuch financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I followthe transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also inthis regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like VyasMunidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in termsof the SAMVA USA chart?Thor________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol >SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stockmarkets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a>year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record>low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy>higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally>adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo ->hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'>Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive>investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence,">he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to>$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x=0 & .v=1>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.>http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-12t>>Thor>>>>________________________________ Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>>Thor>>>>________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has> >>passed.â€>>>>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right>now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>>>>Hello list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the>>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its>>international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent>>after the transit has passed.â€>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer >>>samva >>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.>>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as>>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a>>country. Further,>>>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the>>currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September>>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart.>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange>>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing toinvest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange raterisk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency evenif its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has>>traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to see>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed>>a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and>>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency>>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency>>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US shouldnot be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in thechart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the nationallife, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. Thiswould concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orbis around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orbis slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such thataspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as pertheir natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been somesetbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty toone hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a "disorderly>>adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international>>position of the dollar hasweakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits tothe USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of>>also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on>>the strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after thetransit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>---

[Guest guest]

Dear Thor,

 

In economics these corelations are studied and it's assumed that there is

dependence. Many have tried to reason the regular breaks in corelation. I

was pointing out that if we see these independently from an astrological

perspective, without prior assumptions, the consistent picture emerges.

 

 

Best regards,

 

Vyas Munidas

 

-

" Cosmologer " <cosmologer

<SAMVA >

Friday, September 11, 2009 10:53 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Dear Vyas,

 

Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equities

as the question was raised on list.

 

As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sun

and Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would need

to consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps

can give guidance on that.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

________________________________

Vyas Munidas <muni>

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Dear Thor,

 

Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, the

analysis starts at the beginning.

 

 

Best regards,

 

Vyas Munidas

 

-

" Cosmologer " <cosmologer

<SAMVA >

Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,

 

Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at this

time. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend for

lower values would also be there.

 

In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows that

the US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not.

More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors are

responsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar more

than equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?

 

The problem is made more difficult given the international role of the

dollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.

 

The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involving

the USA, these price measures tend to move together (especially to the down

side). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.

 

Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlation

http://www.philstockworld.com/2009/08/25/banks-sentiment-and-the-long-term-dolla\

r-equity-correlation/

 

Graph

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SpNbtKdobnI/AAAAAAAAAJo/WeHn17EGdLo/s1600-\

h/00binve-001--08--USD-SPX-long-term-correlation.png

 

 

The US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is

 

1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollars

when turbulence affects other parts of the world,

2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place their

investible surpluses of money there,

3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oil

and gold in global markets

4. a quotation currency, such that transfers of funds between different

currencies may go through the dollar first, due its international

acceptability.

 

Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there would

be pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, such

that it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars,

the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of a

deflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were to

emerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US government

has gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value of

the dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of their

substantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reason

that it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency,

backed by an international agency, like the IMF.

 

In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamental

factors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likely

influence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.

 

Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared to

reign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attract

funds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up at

that time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise in

interest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities,

which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy,

would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.

 

Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak.

The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin to

expect the economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend,

could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest rates

relatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.

 

Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view of

other national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All these

developments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better than

others, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and vice

versa, in a ceaseless search for yield.

 

In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could be

expected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge.

How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquire

a broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likely

policy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is all

about. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it more

interesting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insights

into such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop such

analysis would also be quite demanding.

 

Thor

 

 

________________________________

Vyas Munidas <muni>

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Dear Thor and Rajeev,

 

Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate medium

and long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and careful

analysis. Charts of other key nations also require identification and

confidence to consider.

 

The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.

 

 

Best regards,

 

Vyas Munidas

 

-

" Cosmologer " <cosmologer

<SAMVA >

Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1

Attachment]

 

 

Hello Rajeev,

 

In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, but

there are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periods

of stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, in

many cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have to

admit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time in

order to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to the

point where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at any

given time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention on

such financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I follow

the transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also in

this regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like Vyas

Munidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in terms

of the SAMVA USA chart?

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

________________________________

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

 

Thor,

 

Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.

That is how they are related.

 

How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stock

markets!

 

 

Rajeev

 

On Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

 

 

>Hello list,

>

>The dollar continues weak.

>

>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs

>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a

>year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record

>low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy

>higher-yielding assets.

>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg

>

>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally

>adverse.

>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun

>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'

>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord

>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°

>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo -

>hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord

>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'

>Cancer/H1.

>

>Thor

>

>

>

>

>

________________________________

Cosmologer <cosmologer

>SAMVA

>Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM

>

>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>

>

>

>

>

>Hello list,

>

>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.

>

>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000

>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT

>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold

>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors

>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders

>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive

>investors away from the " safe haven " dollar and into emerging-market

>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese

>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's

>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,

>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. " The Chinese have serious influence, "

>he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its

>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.

>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its

>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to

>$1.4490 in later

trading.

>http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x\

=0 & .v=1

>

>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T

>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill

>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond

>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests

>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s

>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against

>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s

>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.

>http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-1\

2t

>

>Thor

>

>

>

>

________________________________

Cosmologer <cosmologer

>SAMVA

>Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM

>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>

>

>

>

>Hello Rajeev,

>

>Thanks for the update.

>

>Thor

>

>

>

>

________________________________

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol

>SAMVA

>Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM

>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>

>

>

>

>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into

>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected

>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€

>

>

>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.

>

>

>

> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental

> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in

> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has

> >>passed.â€

>

>

>

>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right

>now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

>

>

>>Hello list,

>>

>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.

>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on

>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the

>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is

>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the

>>economic interests involved.

>>

>>Thor

>>

>>

>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into

>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected

>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€

>

>

>

>

> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009

>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international

>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it

>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the

>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its

>>international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take

>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of

>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent

>>after the transit has passed.â€

>>

>>

________________________________

Cosmologer <cosmologer

>>samva

>>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM

>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>>

>>

>>Hello list members,

>>

>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about

>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.

>>

>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)

>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman

>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the

>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a

>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money

>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market

>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a

>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their

>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback

>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s

>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency

>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace

>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.

>>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c

>>

>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large

>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they

>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as

>>credible as it was.

>>

>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the

>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a

>>country. Further,

>>

>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the

>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.

>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the

>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh

>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the

>>currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September

>>2000)

>>

>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,

>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house

>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an

>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an

>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In

>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the

>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of

>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a

>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held

>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve

>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart.

>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its

>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange

>>rate would

suggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing to

invest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange rate

risk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency even

if its value tends to fluctuate.

>>

>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA

>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the

>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects

>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of

>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has

>>traditionally favoured a " Strong dollar " such that it would prefer to see

>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed

>>a policy of " Benign neglect " such that the value of the dollar on foreign

>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The

>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but

>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going

>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and

>>transit.

>>

>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord

>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the

>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects

>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental

>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the

>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be

>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the

>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency

>>status?

>>

>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'

>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°

>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to

>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter

>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to

>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing

>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise

>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry

>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it

>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction

>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests

>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain

>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency

>>status. However, given the

strength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US should

not be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in the

chart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,

which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the national

life, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. This

would concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orb

is around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orb

is slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such that

aspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as per

their natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been some

setbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty to

one hundred years.

>>

>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the

>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a

>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar

>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.

>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade

>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to

>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a " disorderly

>>adjustment " or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this

>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on

>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a

>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and

>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their

>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international

>>position of the dollar has

weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to

the USA.

>>

>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of

>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international

>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of

>>also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and

>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of

>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors

>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk

>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could

>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in

>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and

>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely

>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in

>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on

>>the strengths of currency

strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the

transit has passed.

>>

>>The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.

>>

>>Thor

>>

>>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

---

 

 

[Guest guest]

Hello my dear ,

 

Thank you so much for the authorative view.

 

In my own mind, I was thinking along the same lines, concerning the houses. I presume the Sun has to do with the power of the state and discernment, and Mars to do with industry and courage.

 

One more question, do you think there could be some secondary role for considering also Mercury, in terms of commerce and confidence and Jupiter, in terms of finance and expansion, with regard to the stock market.

 

Thor

 

 

 

SIHA <vkchoudhrySAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 3:00:14 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello my dear Thor, For equities Mars, Sun and the houses third, eleventh and fifth can be considered.

 

www.YourNetAstrologer.comA-105, South City II, Gurgaon 122018-01, (India).Phones: 91 124 2219240 Mobile phone: 91 9811016333

 

-

Cosmologer

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 8:23 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

Dear Vyas,

 

Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equities as the question was raised on list.

 

As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sun and Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would need to consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps can give guidance on that.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, the analysis starts at the beginning.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AMSubject:

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at this time. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend for lower values would also be there.In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows that the US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not. More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors are responsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar more than equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?The problem is made more difficult given the international role of the dollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involving the USA, these price measures tend to move

together (especially to the down side). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlationhttp://www.philstoc kworld.com/ 2009/08/25/ banks-sentiment- and-the-long- term-dollar- equity-correlati on/Graphhttp://2.bp. blogspot. com/_OpWmYZm7O8I /SpNbtKdobnI/ AAAAAAAAAJo/ WeHn17EGdLo/ s1600-h/00binve- 001--08-- USD-SPX-long- term-correlation .pngThe US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollars when turbulence affects other parts of the world,2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place their investible surpluses of money there,3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oil and gold in global markets4. a quotation currency, such that

transfers of funds between different currencies may go through the dollar first, due its international acceptability.Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there would be pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, such that it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars, the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of a deflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were to emerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US government has gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value of the dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of their substantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reason that it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency, backed by an international agency, like the

IMF.In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamental factors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likely influence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared to reign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attract funds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up at that time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise in interest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities, which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy, would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak. The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin to expect the economy will

revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend, could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest rates relatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view of other national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All these developments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better than others, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and vice versa, in a ceaseless search for yield.In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could be expected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge. How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquire a broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likely policy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is all about. These

cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it more interesting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insights into such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop such analysis would also be quite demanding.Thor____________ _________ _________ __Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate mediumand long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and carefulanalysis. Charts of other key nations

also require identification andconfidence to consider.The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, butthere are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periodsof stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, inmany cases with likely implications for the

financial market, I have toadmit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time inorder to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to thepoint where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at anygiven time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention onsuch financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I followthe transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also inthis regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like VyasMunidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in termsof the SAMVA USA chart?Thor____________ _________ _________ __Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol@ gmail.com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stockmarkets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a>year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record>low borrowing costs

encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy>higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally>adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo ->hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5°

02'>Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors>switched

funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive>investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence,">he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to>$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance. / news/Dollar- hits-low- for-year- as-apf-365862244 8.html?x= 0 & .v=1>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.>http://thehill. com/homenews/ senate/57493- senate-must- raise-debt- ceiling-above- 12t>>Thor>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>>Thor>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol@ gmail.com>>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or

strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has> >>passed.”>>>>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right>now that it there may not be any room left for it to go

down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>>>>Hello list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the>>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles

into>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its>>international acceptability. .. So, while some erosion in this may take>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent>>after the transit has passed.”>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>>samva >>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a>>reserve currency is eroded

by concerns about the increasing U.S. money>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.>>http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_ c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as

they>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as>>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a>>country. Further,>>>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the>>currency of a particular country.” (Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September>>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the

chart,>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart.>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its>>foreign debt than the

expectations about the future value of its exchange>>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing toinvest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange raterisk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency evenif its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has>>traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to see>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed>>a policy of "Benign

neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and>>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be>>placed to address the second issue of the

reserve currency status of the>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency>>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the

conjunction>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency>>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US shouldnot be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in thechart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the nationallife, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. Thiswould concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orbis around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orbis slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such thataspects within a 4° orb

in a national chart should be fully felt as pertheir natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been somesetbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty toone hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a "disorderly>>adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as

the currency on>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international>>position of the dollar hasweakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits tothe USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of>>also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign

investors>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on>>the strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after thetransit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this issue are

welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>------------ --------- --------- ------

[Guest guest]

Dear Vyas,

 

Indeed, these things have been studied.

 

As for the economic reasoning, the factors that most often are examined are relative economic growth rates (absorption, money demand), the interest rate differential (capital flows) and relative inflation rates (competitiveness).

 

I was also brining out the unique role of the US dollar as international currency. This unique feature of the dollar is clearly seen in the strong placement of the 2nd lord Sun on the MEP of the 7th house and strong placement of 1st lord Moon in the 11th house in aspect with 10th lord Mars. Detracting from these powerful influences are Rahu which natally aspects the 10th and 2nd houses, 8th lord Saturn which natally aspects the Sun, 6th lord Jupiter which natally aspects the Moon.

 

I hope you agree that stating the real world situation as clearly as possible is helpful to the understanding and the application of the astrological indicators. The astrological analysis cannot arise from itself.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 3:09:21 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,In economics these corelations are studied and it's assumed that there is dependence. Many have tried to reason the regular breaks in corelation. I was pointing out that if we see these independently from an astrological perspective, without prior assumptions, the consistent picture emerges.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 10:53 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Vyas,Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equities as the question was raised on list.As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sun and Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would need to consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps can give guidance on that.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent:

Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, theanalysis starts at the beginning.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at thistime. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend forlower values would also be there.In regard to Rajeev´s

interesting question, the following article shows thatthe US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not.More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors areresponsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar morethan equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?The problem is made more difficult given the international role of thedollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involvingthe USA, these price measures tend to move together (especially to the downside). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity

Correlationhttp://www.philstockworld.com/2009/08/25/banks-sentiment-and-the-long-term-dollar-equity-correlation/Graphhttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SpNbtKdobnI/AAAAAAAAAJo/WeHn17EGdLo/s1600-h/00binve-001--08--USD-SPX-long-term-correlation.pngThe US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollarswhen turbulence affects other parts of the world,2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place theirinvestible surpluses of money there,3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oiland gold in global markets4. a quotation currency, such that transfers of funds between differentcurrencies may go through the dollar first, due its internationalacceptability.Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there wouldbe pressure on it to run a

trade deficit and a capital account surplus, suchthat it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars,the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of adeflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were toemerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US governmenthas gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value ofthe dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of theirsubstantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reasonthat it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency,backed by an international agency, like the IMF.In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamentalfactors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likelyinfluence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.Scenario 1. a rise

in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared toreign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attractfunds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up atthat time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise ininterest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities,which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy,would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak.The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin toexpect the economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend,could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest ratesrelatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be

conducted in view ofother national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All thesedevelopments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better thanothers, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and viceversa, in a ceaseless search for yield.In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could beexpected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge.How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquirea broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likelypolicy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is allabout. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it moreinteresting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insightsinto such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop suchanalysis would also be quite

demanding.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate mediumand long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and carefulanalysis. Charts of other key nations also require identification andconfidence to consider.The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, butthere are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periodsof stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, inmany cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have toadmit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time inorder to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to thepoint where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at anygiven time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention onsuch

financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I followthe transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also inthis regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like VyasMunidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in termsof the SAMVA USA chart?Thor________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharolSAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall

in stockmarkets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a>year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record>low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy>higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally>adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22°

44'>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo ->hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'>Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello

list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive>investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence,">he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury

securities, and its>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to>$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x=0 & .v=1>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6

trillion.>http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-12t>>Thor>>>>________________________________ Cosmologer <cosmologer>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>>Thor>>>>________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has> >>passed.â€>>>>This too is

likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right>now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:>>>>Hello list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the>>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24

2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its>>international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent>>after the transit has

passed.â€>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer>>samva >>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as

a>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.>>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large>>countries will move into other currencies with their

reserves, as they>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as>>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a>>country. Further,>>>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the>>currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September>>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the

chart,>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart.>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its>>foreign debt than the

expectations about the future value of its exchange>>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing toinvest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange raterisk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency evenif its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has>>traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to see>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed>>a policy of "Benign

neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and>>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be>>placed to address the second issue of the

reserve currency status of the>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency>>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the

conjunction>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency>>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US shouldnot be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in thechart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the nationallife, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. Thiswould concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orbis around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orbis slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such thataspects within a 4° orb in a

national chart should be fully felt as pertheir natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been somesetbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty toone hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a "disorderly>>adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the

currency on>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international>>position of the dollar hasweakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits tothe USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of>>also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign

investors>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on>>the strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after thetransit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this issue are

welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>---

[Guest guest]

Dear Thor,

 

Once one has a firm grasp of economics and astrology, the astrological

principles can be brought out as has demonstrated. Like

all the other gems he's given us, an astrologer - without much economic

education or news reading, can assess the situation nicely for any mundane

chart.

 

 

Best regards,

 

Vyas Munidas

 

-

" Cosmologer " <cosmologer

<SAMVA >

Friday, September 11, 2009 11:49 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Dear Vyas,

 

Indeed, these things have been studied.

 

As for the economic reasoning, the factors that most often are examined are

relative economic growth rates (absorption, money demand), the interest rate

differential (capital flows) and relative inflation rates (competitiveness).

 

I was also brining out the unique role of the US dollar as international

currency. This unique feature of the dollar is clearly seen in the strong

placement of the 2nd lord Sun on the MEP of the 7th house and strong

placement of 1st lord Moon in the 11th house in aspect with 10th lord Mars.

Detracting from these powerful influences are Rahu which natally aspects the

10th and 2nd houses, 8th lord Saturn which natally aspects the Sun, 6th lord

Jupiter which natally aspects the Moon.

 

I hope you agree that stating the real world situation as clearly as

possible is helpful to the understanding and the application of the

astrological indicators. The astrological analysis cannot arise from itself.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

________________________________

Vyas Munidas <muni>

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 3:09:21 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Dear Thor,

 

In economics these corelations are studied and it's assumed that there is

dependence. Many have tried to reason the regular breaks in corelation. I

was pointing out that if we see these independently from an astrological

perspective, without prior assumptions, the consistent picture emerges.

 

 

Best regards,

 

Vyas Munidas

 

-

" Cosmologer " <cosmologer

<SAMVA >

Friday, September 11, 2009 10:53 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Dear Vyas,

 

Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equities

as the question was raised on list.

 

As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sun

and Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would need

to consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps

can give guidance on that.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

________________________________

Vyas Munidas <muni>

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Dear Thor,

 

Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, the

analysis starts at the beginning.

 

 

Best regards,

 

Vyas Munidas

 

-

" Cosmologer " <cosmologer

<SAMVA >

Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,

 

Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at this

time. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend for

lower values would also be there.

 

In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows that

the US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not.

More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors are

responsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar more

than equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?

 

The problem is made more difficult given the international role of the

dollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.

 

The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involving

the USA, these price measures tend to move together (especially to the down

side). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.

 

Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlation

http://www.philstockworld.com/2009/08/25/banks-sentiment-and-the-long-term-dolla\

r-equity-correlation/

 

Graph

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SpNbtKdobnI/AAAAAAAAAJo/WeHn17EGdLo/s1600-\

h/00binve-001--08--USD-SPX-long-term-correlation.png

 

 

The US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is

 

1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollars

when turbulence affects other parts of the world,

2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place their

investible surpluses of money there,

3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oil

and gold in global markets

4. a quotation currency, such that transfers of funds between different

currencies may go through the dollar first, due its international

acceptability.

 

Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there would

be pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, such

that it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars,

the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of a

deflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were to

emerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US government

has gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value of

the dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of their

substantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reason

that it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency,

backed by an international agency, like the IMF.

 

In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamental

factors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likely

influence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.

 

Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared to

reign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attract

funds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up at

that time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise in

interest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities,

which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy,

would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.

 

Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak.

The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin to

expect the economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend,

could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest rates

relatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.

 

Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view of

other national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All these

developments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better than

others, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and vice

versa, in a ceaseless search for yield.

 

In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could be

expected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge.

How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquire

a broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likely

policy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is all

about. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it more

interesting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insights

into such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop such

analysis would also be quite demanding.

 

Thor

 

 

________________________________

Vyas Munidas <muni>

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Dear Thor and Rajeev,

 

Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate medium

and long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and careful

analysis. Charts of other key nations also require identification and

confidence to consider.

 

The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.

 

 

Best regards,

 

Vyas Munidas

 

-

" Cosmologer " <cosmologer

<SAMVA >

Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1

Attachment]

 

 

Hello Rajeev,

 

In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, but

there are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periods

of stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, in

many cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have to

admit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time in

order to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to the

point where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at any

given time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention on

such financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I follow

the transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also in

this regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like Vyas

Munidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in terms

of the SAMVA USA chart?

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

________________________________

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

 

Thor,

 

Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.

That is how they are related.

 

How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stock

markets!

 

 

Rajeev

 

On Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

 

 

>Hello list,

>

>The dollar continues weak.

>

>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs

>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a

>year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record

>low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy

>higher-yielding assets.

>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg

>

>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally

>adverse.

>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun

>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'

>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord

>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°

>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo -

>hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord

>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'

>Cancer/H1.

>

>Thor

>

>

>

>

>

________________________________

Cosmologer <cosmologer

>SAMVA

>Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM

>

>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>

>

>

>

>

>Hello list,

>

>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.

>

>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000

>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT

>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold

>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors

>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders

>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive

>investors away from the " safe haven " dollar and into emerging-market

>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese

>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's

>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,

>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. " The Chinese have serious influence, "

>he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its

>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.

>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its

>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to

>$1.4490 in later

trading.

>http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x\

=0 & .v=1

>

>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T

>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill

>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond

>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests

>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s

>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against

>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s

>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.

>http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-1\

2t

>

>Thor

>

>

>

>

________________________________

Cosmologer <cosmologer

>SAMVA

>Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM

>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>

>

>

>

>Hello Rajeev,

>

>Thanks for the update.

>

>Thor

>

>

>

>

________________________________

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol

>SAMVA

>Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM

>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>

>

>

>

>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into

>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected

>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€

>

>

>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.

>

>

>

> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental

> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in

> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has

> >>passed.â€

>

>

>

>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right

>now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

>

>

>>Hello list,

>>

>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.

>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on

>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the

>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is

>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the

>>economic interests involved.

>>

>>Thor

>>

>>

>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into

>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected

>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€

>

>

>

>

> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009

>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international

>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it

>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the

>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its

>>international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take

>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of

>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent

>>after the transit has passed.â€

>>

>>

________________________________

Cosmologer <cosmologer

>>samva

>>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM

>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>>

>>

>>Hello list members,

>>

>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about

>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.

>>

>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)

>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman

>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the

>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a

>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money

>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market

>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a

>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their

>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback

>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s

>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency

>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace

>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.

>>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c

>>

>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large

>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they

>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as

>>credible as it was.

>>

>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the

>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a

>>country. Further,

>>

>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the

>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.

>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the

>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh

>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the

>>currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September

>>2000)

>>

>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,

>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house

>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an

>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an

>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In

>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the

>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of

>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a

>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held

>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve

>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart.

>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its

>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange

>>rate would

suggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing to

invest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange rate

risk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency even

if its value tends to fluctuate.

>>

>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA

>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the

>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects

>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of

>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has

>>traditionally favoured a " Strong dollar " such that it would prefer to see

>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed

>>a policy of " Benign neglect " such that the value of the dollar on foreign

>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The

>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but

>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going

>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and

>>transit.

>>

>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord

>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the

>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects

>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental

>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the

>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be

>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the

>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency

>>status?

>>

>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'

>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°

>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to

>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter

>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to

>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing

>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise

>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry

>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it

>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction

>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests

>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain

>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency

>>status. However, given the

strength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US should

not be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in the

chart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,

which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the national

life, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. This

would concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orb

is around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orb

is slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such that

aspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as per

their natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been some

setbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty to

one hundred years.

>>

>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the

>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a

>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar

>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.

>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade

>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to

>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a " disorderly

>>adjustment " or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this

>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on

>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a

>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and

>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their

>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international

>>position of the dollar has

weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to

the USA.

>>

>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of

>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international

>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of

>>also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and

>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of

>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors

>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk

>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could

>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in

>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and

>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely

>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in

>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on

>>the strengths of currency

strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the

transit has passed.

>>

>>The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.

>>

>>Thor

>>

>>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

---

 

 

[Guest guest]

Dear Vyas,

 

The puropse of my posts is to share insights for those list members who may be seeking to improve their understanding of either or both areas; that is real world phenomena or SA astrology. As you acknowledge, one cannot go without the other. When I founded SAMVA list in 2000, I dedicated it to the study of mundane phenomena in terms of Systems' Approach astrology.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 5:10:52 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Once one has a firm grasp of economics and astrology, the astrological principles can be brought out as has demonstrated. Like all the other gems he's given us, an astrologer - without much economic education or news reading, can assess the situation nicely for any mundane chart.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 11:49 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Vyas,Indeed, these things have been studied.As for the economic reasoning, the factors that most often are examined are relative economic growth rates (absorption, money demand), the interest rate differential (capital flows) and relative inflation rates (competitiveness).I was also brining out the unique role of the US dollar as international currency. This unique feature of the dollar is clearly seen in the strong placement of the 2nd lord Sun on the MEP of the 7th house and strong placement of 1st lord Moon in the 11th house in aspect with 10th lord Mars. Detracting from these powerful influences are Rahu which natally aspects the 10th and 2nd houses, 8th lord Saturn

which natally aspects the Sun, 6th lord Jupiter which natally aspects the Moon.I hope you agree that stating the real world situation as clearly as possible is helpful to the understanding and the application of the astrological indicators. The astrological analysis cannot arise from itself.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 3:09:21 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,In economics these corelations are studied and it's assumed that there isdependence. Many have tried to reason the regular breaks in corelation. Iwas pointing out that if we see these independently from an

astrologicalperspective, without prior assumptions, the consistent picture emerges.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 10:53 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Vyas,Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equitiesas the question was raised on list.As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sunand Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would needto consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps can give guidance on

that.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, theanalysis starts at the beginning.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AMRe: Re:

Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at thistime. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend forlower values would also be there.In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows thatthe US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not.More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors areresponsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar morethan equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?The problem is made more difficult given the international role of thedollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involvingthe USA, these price measures tend to move together (especially to the

downside). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlationhttp://www.philstockworld.com/2009/08/25/banks-sentiment-and-the-long-term-dollar-equity-correlation/Graphhttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SpNbtKdobnI/AAAAAAAAAJo/WeHn17EGdLo/s1600-h/00binve-001--08--USD-SPX-long-term-correlation.pngThe US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollarswhen turbulence affects other parts of the world,2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks

place theirinvestible surpluses of money there,3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oiland gold in global markets4. a quotation currency, such that transfers of funds between differentcurrencies may go through the dollar first, due its internationalacceptability.Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there wouldbe pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, suchthat it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars,the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of adeflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were toemerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US governmenthas gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value ofthe dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of theirsubstantial assets

placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reasonthat it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency,backed by an international agency, like the IMF.In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamentalfactors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likelyinfluence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared toreign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attractfunds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up atthat time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise ininterest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities,which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy,would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain

higher.Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak.The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin toexpect the economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend,could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest ratesrelatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view ofother national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All thesedevelopments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better thanothers, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and viceversa, in a ceaseless search for yield.In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could beexpected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge.How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would

reuquirea broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likelypolicy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is allabout. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it moreinteresting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insightsinto such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop suchanalysis would also be quite demanding.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate

mediumand long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and carefulanalysis. Charts of other key nations also require identification andconfidence to consider.The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, butthere are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periodsof stress, associated with stationary transits for

upto three months, inmany cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have toadmit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time inorder to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to thepoint where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at anygiven time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention onsuch financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I followthe transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also inthis regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like VyasMunidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in termsof the SAMVA USA chart?Thor________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharolSAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stockmarkets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a>year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record>low borrowing costs

encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy>higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally>adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo ->hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5°

02'>Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global

leaders>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive>investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence,">he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to>$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x=0 & .v=1>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.>http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-12t>>Thor>>>>________________________________

Cosmologer <cosmologer>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>>Thor>>>>________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or

strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has> >>passed.â€>>>>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right>now that it there may not be any room left for it to go

down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:>>>>Hello list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the>>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun

in the chart....may be reflected>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its>>international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent>>after the transit has passed.â€>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer>>samva >>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money>>supply. The dollar will drop the most

against emerging-market>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.>>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they>>think the US

has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as>>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a>>country. Further,>>>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the>>currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September>>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house

lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart.>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its

exchange>>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing toinvest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange raterisk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency evenif its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has>>traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to see>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed>>a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on

foreign>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and>>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the>>US

dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency>>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction>>this autumn of transit 6th lord

Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency>>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US shouldnot be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in thechart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the nationallife, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. Thiswould concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orbis around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orbis slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such thataspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as pertheir

natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been somesetbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty toone hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a "disorderly>>adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on>>which to trade in oil. This

angered the Americans and could have beeen a>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international>>position of the dollar hasweakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits tothe USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of>>also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors>>could at that time become less willing to

shoulder the exchange rate risk>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on>>the strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after thetransit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this issue are

welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>---

[Guest guest]

Hello dear list members,

 

Dollar Index Drops in Longest Stretch of Losses Since March

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Dollar Index fell for a sixth day in its longest losing streak since March as an increase in U.S. consumer sentiment encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy higher-yielding assets overseas. Sterling rose to a one-month high versus the dollar as U.K. producer prices increased in August. The yen advanced versus most of its major counterparts on speculation China’s recovery will boost the growth of its Asian neighbors and Japan’s exporters will repatriate earnings. “The data

has been relatively good, and the burden of proof is on the doomsayers,†said Paul Robson, a senior currency strategist in London at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Britain’s biggest state-owned bank. “With policy makers saying they are going to keep monetary policy low and accommodative for some time, that’s supporting risk, and people are using the dollar as a funding currency.†The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, yen and pound, retreated 0.3 percent to 76.61 at 5:17 p.m. in New York. The gauge decreased 1.9 percent from Sept. 4 in its biggest weekly drop since May. The index earlier today

touched 76.457, the lowest level since Sept. 25, 2008. The U.S. currency erased its decline versus the euro at about 10 a.m. New York time on increased demand for safety as CNN reported an incident on the Potomac River involving the Coast Guard on the anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The Coast Guard was conducted a training exercise, said a spokesman, Petty Officer Second Class Nathan Henise.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=ajJu_A5DrDrM

 

The above story notes two things

 

a) the continuing decline of the US dollar and

b) the interesting safe haven role the dollar enjoyes, when panic emerges

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 7:02:57 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Dear Vyas,

 

The puropse of my posts is to share insights for those list members who may be seeking to improve their understanding of either or both areas; that is real world phenomena or SA astrology. As you acknowledge, one cannot go without the other. When I founded SAMVA list in 2000, I dedicated it to the study of mundane phenomena in terms of Systems' Approach astrology.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 5:10:52 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Once one has a firm grasp of economics and astrology, the astrological principles can be brought out as has demonstrated. Like all the other gems he's given us, an astrologer - without much economic education or news reading, can assess the situation nicely for any mundane chart.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 11:49 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Vyas,Indeed, these things have been studied.As for the economic reasoning, the factors that most often are examined are relative economic growth rates (absorption, money demand), the interest rate differential (capital flows) and relative inflation rates (competitiveness).I was also brining out the unique role of the US dollar as international currency. This unique feature of the dollar is clearly seen in the strong placement of the 2nd lord Sun on the MEP of the 7th house and strong placement of 1st lord Moon in the 11th house in aspect with 10th lord Mars. Detracting

from these powerful influences are Rahu which natally aspects the 10th and 2nd houses, 8th lord Saturn which natally aspects the Sun, 6th lord Jupiter which natally aspects the Moon.I hope you agree that stating the real world situation as clearly as possible is helpful to the understanding and the application of the astrological indicators. The astrological analysis cannot arise from itself.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 3:09:21 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,In economics these corelations are studied and it's

assumed that there isdependence. Many have tried to reason the regular breaks in corelation. Iwas pointing out that if we see these independently from an astrologicalperspective, without prior assumptions, the consistent picture emerges.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 10:53 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Vyas,Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equitiesas the question was raised on list.As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be

the Sunand Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would needto consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps can give guidance on that.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, theanalysis starts at the beginning.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at thistime. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend forlower values would also be there.In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows thatthe US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not.More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors areresponsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar morethan equities or vice

versa. How to disentangle the influences?The problem is made more difficult given the international role of thedollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involvingthe USA, these price measures tend to move together (especially to the downside). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlationhttp://www.philstockworld.com/2009/08/25/banks-sentiment-and-the-long-term-dollar-equity-correlation/Graphhttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SpNbtKdobnI/AAAAAAAAAJo/WeHn17EGdLo/s1600-h/00binve-001--08--USD-SPX-long-term-correlation.pngThe US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollarswhen turbulence affects other parts of the world,2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place theirinvestible surpluses of money there,3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oiland gold in global markets4. a quotation currency, such that transfers of funds between differentcurrencies may go through the dollar first, due its internationalacceptability.Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there wouldbe pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, suchthat it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity

of dollars,the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of adeflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were toemerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US governmenthas gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value ofthe dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of theirsubstantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reasonthat it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency,backed by an international agency, like the IMF.In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamentalfactors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likelyinfluence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared toreign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend

to attractfunds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up atthat time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise ininterest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities,which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy,would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak.The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin toexpect the economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend,could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest ratesrelatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view ofother national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All thesedevelopments tend to be

relative. When one country is doing better thanothers, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and viceversa, in a ceaseless search for yield.In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could beexpected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge.How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquirea broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likelypolicy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is allabout. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it moreinteresting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insightsinto such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop suchanalysis would also be quite demanding.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <muni>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate mediumand long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and carefulanalysis. Charts of other key nations also require identification andconfidence to consider.The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologerTo:

<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, butthere are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periodsof stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, inmany cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have toadmit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time inorder to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to thepoint where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at anygiven time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention onsuch financial market predictions. I have decided not

to do that. I followthe transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also inthis regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like VyasMunidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in termsof the SAMVA USA chart?Thor________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharolSAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and

fall in stockmarkets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a>year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record>low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy>higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally>adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now

at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo ->hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'>Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer>SAMVA >Sent:

Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive>investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar

lower, said Joseph Trevisani,>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence,">he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to>$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x=0 & .v=1>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests>about

the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.>http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-12t>>Thor>>>>________________________________ Cosmologer <cosmologer>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will

the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>>Thor>>>>________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange

rate.â€>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has> >>passed.â€>>>>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right>now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:>>>>Hello list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the

future of the dollar.>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the>>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it>>continues to

deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its>>international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent>>after the transit has passed.â€>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer>>samva >>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list

members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from

this year’s>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.>>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as>>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a>>country. Further,>>>>“It is the

power of the state which is shown through the strength of the>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the>>currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September>>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In>>sum, the currency strength of the

USA should be quite good, although the>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart.>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange>>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing toinvest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange raterisk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency evenif its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we

could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has>>traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to see>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed>>a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart

and>>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency>>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely

subject to>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency>>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US shouldnot be adversely

harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in thechart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the nationallife, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. Thiswould concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orbis around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orbis slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such thataspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as pertheir natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been somesetbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty toone hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also

put a>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a "disorderly>>adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international>>position of the dollar hasweakened

progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits tothe USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of>>also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and>>store of value in international markets, even

if the trends will likely>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on>>the strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after thetransit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>---

[Guest guest]

Hello my dear Thor, Yes, you can say so.

 

 

-

 

Cosmologer

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 9:12 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello my dear ,

 

Thank you so much for the authorative view.

 

In my own mind, I was thinking along the same lines, concerning the houses. I presume the Sun has to do with the power of the state and discernment, and Mars to do with industry and courage.

 

One more question, do you think there could be some secondary role for considering also Mercury, in terms of commerce and confidence and Jupiter, in terms of finance and expansion, with regard to the stock market.

 

Thor

 

 

 

SIHA <vkchoudhry >SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 3:00:14 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Hello my dear Thor, For equities Mars, Sun and the houses third, eleventh and fifth can be considered.

 

www.YourNetAstrologer.comA-105, South City II, Gurgaon 122018-01, (India).Phones: 91 124 2219240 Mobile phone: 91 9811016333

 

-

Cosmologer

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 8:23 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

Dear Vyas,

 

Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equities as the question was raised on list.

 

As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sun and Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would need to consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps can give guidance on that.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, the analysis starts at the beginning.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at this time. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend for lower values would also be there.In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows that the US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not. More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors are responsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar more than equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?The problem is made more difficult given the international role of the dollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involving the USA, these price measures tend to move together (especially to the down side). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlationhttp://www.philstoc kworld.com/ 2009/08/25/ banks-sentiment- and-the-long- term-dollar- equity-correlati on/Graphhttp://2.bp. blogspot. com/_OpWmYZm7O8I /SpNbtKdobnI/ AAAAAAAAAJo/ WeHn17EGdLo/ s1600-h/00binve- 001--08-- USD-SPX-long- term-correlation .pngThe US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollars when turbulence affects other parts of the world,2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place their investible surpluses of money there,3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oil and gold in global markets4. a quotation currency, such that transfers of funds between different currencies may go through the dollar first, due its international acceptability.Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there would be pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, such that it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars, the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of a deflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were to emerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US government has gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value of the dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of their substantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reason that it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency, backed by an international agency, like the IMF.In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamental factors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likely influence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared to reign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attract funds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up at that time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise in interest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities, which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy, would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak. The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin to expect the economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend, could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest rates relatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view of other national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All these developments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better than others, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and vice versa, in a ceaseless search for yield.In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could be expected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge. How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquire a broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likely policy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is all about. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it more interesting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insights into such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop such analysis would also be quite demanding.Thor____________ _________ _________ __Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate mediumand long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and carefulanalysis. Charts of other key nations also require identification andconfidence to consider.The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, butthere are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periodsof stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, inmany cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have toadmit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time inorder to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to thepoint where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at anygiven time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention onsuch financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I followthe transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also inthis regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like VyasMunidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in termsof the SAMVA USA chart?Thor____________ _________ _________ __Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol@ gmail.com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stockmarkets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a>year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record>low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy>higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally>adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo ->hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'>Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive>investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence,">he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to>$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance. / news/Dollar- hits-low- for-year- as-apf-365862244 8.html?x= 0 & .v=1>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.>http://thehill. com/homenews/ senate/57493- senate-must- raise-debt- ceiling-above- 12t>>Thor>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>>Thor>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol@ gmail.com>>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has> >>passed.”>>>>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right>now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>>>>Hello list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the>>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its>>international acceptability. .. So, while some erosion in this may take>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent>>after the transit has passed.”>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>>samva >>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.>>http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_ c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as>>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a>>country. Further,>>>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the>>currency of a particular country.” (Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September>>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart.>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange>>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing toinvest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange raterisk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency evenif its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has>>traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to see>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed>>a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and>>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency>>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency>>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US shouldnot be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in thechart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the nationallife, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. Thiswould concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orbis around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orbis slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such thataspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as pertheir natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been somesetbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty toone hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a "disorderly>>adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international>>position of the dollar hasweakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits tothe USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of>>also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on>>the strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after thetransit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>------------ --------- --------- ------

[Guest guest]

Hello my dear Vyas, Some level of understanding of economic principles is necessary for astrological analysis of mundane economic events.

 

Long back I studied managerial economics and business economics in my Management and MBA courses.

 

 

-

 

Vyas Munidas

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 10:40 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

Dear Thor,Once one has a firm grasp of economics and astrology, the astrological principles can be brought out as has demonstrated. Like all the other gems he's given us, an astrologer - without much economic education or news reading, can assess the situation nicely for any mundane chart.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 11:49 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Vyas,Indeed, these things have been studied.As for the economic reasoning, the factors that most often are examined are relative economic growth rates (absorption, money demand), the interest rate differential (capital flows) and relative inflation rates (competitiveness).I was also brining out the unique role of the US dollar as international currency. This unique feature of the dollar is clearly seen in the strong placement of the 2nd lord Sun on the MEP of the 7th house and strong placement of 1st lord Moon in the 11th house in aspect with 10th lord Mars. Detracting from these powerful influences are Rahu which natally aspects the 10th and 2nd houses, 8th lord Saturn which natally aspects the Sun, 6th lord Jupiter which natally aspects the Moon.I hope you agree that stating the real world situation as clearly as possible is helpful to the understanding and the application of the astrological indicators. The astrological analysis cannot arise from itself.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 3:09:21 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,In economics these corelations are studied and it's assumed that there isdependence. Many have tried to reason the regular breaks in corelation. Iwas pointing out that if we see these independently from an astrologicalperspective, without prior assumptions, the consistent picture emerges.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 10:53 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Vyas,Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equitiesas the question was raised on list.As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sunand Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would needto consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps can give guidance on that.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, theanalysis starts at the beginning.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at thistime. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend forlower values would also be there.In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows thatthe US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not.More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors areresponsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar morethan equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?The problem is made more difficult given the international role of thedollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involvingthe USA, these price measures tend to move together (especially to the downside). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlationhttp://www.philstockworld.com/2009/08/25/banks-sentiment-and-the-long-term-dollar-equity-correlation/Graphhttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SpNbtKdobnI/AAAAAAAAAJo/WeHn17EGdLo/s1600-h/00binve-001--08--USD-SPX-long-term-correlation.pngThe US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollarswhen turbulence affects other parts of the world,2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place theirinvestible surpluses of money there,3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oiland gold in global markets4. a quotation currency, such that transfers of funds between differentcurrencies may go through the dollar first, due its internationalacceptability.Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there wouldbe pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, suchthat it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars,the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of adeflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were toemerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US governmenthas gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value ofthe dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of theirsubstantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reasonthat it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency,backed by an international agency, like the IMF.In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamentalfactors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likelyinfluence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared toreign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attractfunds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up atthat time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise ininterest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities,which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy,would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak.The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin toexpect the economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend,could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest ratesrelatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view ofother national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All thesedevelopments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better thanothers, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and viceversa, in a ceaseless search for yield.In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could beexpected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge.How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquirea broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likelypolicy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is allabout. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it moreinteresting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insightsinto such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop suchanalysis would also be quite demanding.Thor________________________________Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate mediumand long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and carefulanalysis. Charts of other key nations also require identification andconfidence to consider.The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, butthere are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periodsof stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, inmany cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have toadmit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time inorder to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to thepoint where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at anygiven time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention onsuch financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I followthe transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also inthis regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like VyasMunidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in termsof the SAMVA USA chart?Thor________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol >SAMVA Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stockmarkets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a>year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record>low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy>higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally>adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo ->hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'>Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive>investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence,">he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to>$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x=0 & .v=1>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.>http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-12t>>Thor>>>>________________________________ Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>>Thor>>>>________________________________Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has> >>passed.â€>>>>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right>now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>>>>Hello list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the>>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.â€>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its>>international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent>>after the transit has passed.â€>>>>________________________________Cosmologer <cosmologer >>>samva >>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.>>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as>>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a>>country. Further,>>>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the>>currency of a particular country.†(Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September>>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart.>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange>>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing toinvest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange raterisk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency evenif its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has>>traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to see>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed>>a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and>>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency>>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency>>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US shouldnot be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in thechart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the nationallife, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. Thiswould concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orbis around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orbis slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such thataspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as pertheir natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been somesetbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty toone hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a "disorderly>>adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international>>position of the dollar hasweakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits tothe USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of>>also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on>>the strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after thetransit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>---

[Guest guest]

Hello my dear ,

 

Thank you kindly for the clarification.

 

Thor

 

 

 

SIHA <vkchoudhrySAMVA Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2009 3:07:42 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello my dear Thor, Yes, you can say so.

 

 

-

 

Cosmologer

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 9:12 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello my dear ,

 

Thank you so much for the authorative view.

 

In my own mind, I was thinking along the same lines, concerning the houses. I presume the Sun has to do with the power of the state and discernment, and Mars to do with industry and courage.

 

One more question, do you think there could be some secondary role for considering also Mercury, in terms of commerce and confidence and Jupiter, in terms of finance and expansion, with regard to the stock market.

 

Thor

 

 

 

SIHA <vkchoudhry (AT) gmail (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 3:00:14 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Hello my dear Thor, For equities Mars, Sun and the houses third, eleventh and fifth can be considered.

 

www.YourNetAstrolog er.comA-105, South City II, Gurgaon 122018-01, (India).Phones: 91 124 2219240 Mobile phone: 91 9811016333

 

-

Cosmologer

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 8:23 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

Dear Vyas,

 

Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equities as the question was raised on list.

 

As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sun and Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would need to consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps can give guidance on that.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, the analysis starts at the beginning.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AMSubject:

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at this time. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend for lower values would also be there.In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows that the US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not. More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors are responsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar more than equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?The problem is made more difficult given the international role of the dollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involving the USA, these price measures tend to move

together (especially to the down side). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlationhttp://www.philstoc kworld.com/ 2009/08/25/ banks-sentiment- and-the-long- term-dollar- equity-correlati on/Graphhttp://2.bp. blogspot. com/_OpWmYZm7O8I /SpNbtKdobnI/ AAAAAAAAAJo/ WeHn17EGdLo/ s1600-h/00binve- 001--08-- USD-SPX-long- term-correlation .pngThe US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollars when turbulence affects other parts of the world,2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place their investible surpluses of money there,3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oil and gold in global markets4. a quotation

currency, such that transfers of funds between different currencies may go through the dollar first, due its international acceptability.Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there would be pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, such that it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars, the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of a deflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were to emerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US government has gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value of the dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of their substantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reason that it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency, backed by an international

agency, like the IMF.In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamental factors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likely influence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared to reign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attract funds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up at that time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise in interest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities, which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy, would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak. The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin to expect the

economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend, could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest rates relatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view of other national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All these developments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better than others, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and vice versa, in a ceaseless search for yield.In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could be expected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge. How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquire a broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likely policy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is all

about. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it more interesting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insights into such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop such analysis would also be quite demanding.Thor____________ _________ _________ __Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate mediumand long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and carefulanalysis. Charts of

other key nations also require identification andconfidence to consider.The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, butthere are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periodsof stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, inmany cases with likely

implications for the financial market, I have toadmit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time inorder to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to thepoint where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at anygiven time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention onsuch financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I followthe transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also inthis regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like VyasMunidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in termsof the SAMVA USA chart?Thor____________ _________ _________ __Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol@ gmail.com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stockmarkets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a>year against the currencies of six major U.S.

trading partners as record>low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy>higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally>adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo ->hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is

afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'>Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving

some ground and investors>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive>investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence,">he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to>$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance. / news/Dollar- hits-low- for-year- as-apf-365862244 8.html?x= 0 & .v=1>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.>http://thehill. com/homenews/ senate/57493- senate-must- raise-debt- ceiling-above- 12t>>Thor>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>>Thor>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol@ gmail.com>>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re:

Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has> >>passed.”>>>>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right>now that it there may not be any

room left for it to go down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>>>>Hello list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the>>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter

settles into>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its>>international acceptability. .. So, while some erosion in this may take>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent>>after the transit has passed.”>>>>____________ _________ _________ __

Cosmologer <cosmologer >>>samva >>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as

a>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.>>http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_ c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b)

large>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as>>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a>>country. Further,>>>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the>>currency of a particular country.” (Professor V.K Choudhry, 26

September>>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its

chart.>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange>>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing toinvest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange raterisk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency evenif its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has>>traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to

see>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed>>a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and>>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and

the>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency>>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could

worry>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency>>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US shouldnot be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in thechart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the nationallife, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. Thiswould concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orbis around 3°) and that

of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orbis slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such thataspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as pertheir natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been somesetbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty toone hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many

worrying about a "disorderly>>adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international>>position of the dollar hasweakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits tothe USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of>>also the faster moving planets and the whole

transit-to-transit and>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on>>the strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after thetransit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this

issue are welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>------------ --------- --------- ------

[Guest guest]

Hello list members,

 

One interesting development last week, after transit 6th lord Jupiter came within 1° of its conjunction aspect with the natal 2nd lord Sun in the SAMVA USA chart, is the performance of gold. As one analyst noted.

 

"It was an historic week in the gold market. Gold made its highest weekly close in history and never before has it closed on a weekly basis above $1000. It was also the second highest daily London PM Fix in history. The move was not a massive vertical spike, but a move that came with a lot of back filling. This is good news."

 

This development likely reflects growing concerns over the dollar.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2009 7:14:23 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello my dear ,

 

Thank you kindly for the clarification.

 

Thor

 

 

 

SIHA <vkchoudhrySAMVA Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2009 3:07:42 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello my dear Thor, Yes, you can say so.

 

 

-

 

Cosmologer

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 9:12 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello my dear ,

 

Thank you so much for the authorative view.

 

In my own mind, I was thinking along the same lines, concerning the houses. I presume the Sun has to do with the power of the state and discernment, and Mars to do with industry and courage.

 

One more question, do you think there could be some secondary role for considering also Mercury, in terms of commerce and confidence and Jupiter, in terms of finance and expansion, with regard to the stock market.

 

Thor

 

 

 

SIHA <vkchoudhry (AT) gmail (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 3:00:14 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Hello my dear Thor, For equities Mars, Sun and the houses third, eleventh and fifth can be considered.

 

www.YourNetAstrolog er.comA-105, South City II, Gurgaon 122018-01, (India).Phones: 91 124 2219240 Mobile phone: 91 9811016333

 

-

Cosmologer

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 8:23 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

Dear Vyas,

 

Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equities as the question was raised on list.

 

As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sun and Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would need to consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps can give guidance on that.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, the analysis starts at the beginning.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AMSubject:

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at this time. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend for lower values would also be there.In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows that the US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not. More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors are responsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar more than equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?The problem is made more difficult given the international role of the dollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involving the USA, these price measures tend to move

together (especially to the down side). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlationhttp://www.philstoc kworld.com/ 2009/08/25/ banks-sentiment- and-the-long- term-dollar- equity-correlati on/Graphhttp://2.bp. blogspot. com/_OpWmYZm7O8I /SpNbtKdobnI/ AAAAAAAAAJo/ WeHn17EGdLo/ s1600-h/00binve- 001--08-- USD-SPX-long- term-correlation .pngThe US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollars when turbulence affects other parts of the world,2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place their investible surpluses of money there,3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oil and gold in global markets4. a quotation

currency, such that transfers of funds between different currencies may go through the dollar first, due its international acceptability.Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there would be pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, such that it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars, the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of a deflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were to emerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US government has gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value of the dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of their substantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reason that it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency, backed by an international

agency, like the IMF.In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamental factors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likely influence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared to reign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attract funds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up at that time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise in interest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities, which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy, would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak. The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin to expect the

economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend, could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest rates relatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view of other national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All these developments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better than others, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and vice versa, in a ceaseless search for yield.In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could be expected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge. How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquire a broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likely policy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is all

about. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it more interesting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insights into such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop such analysis would also be quite demanding.Thor____________ _________ _________ __Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate mediumand long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and carefulanalysis. Charts of

other key nations also require identification andconfidence to consider.The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, butthere are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periodsof stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, inmany cases with likely

implications for the financial market, I have toadmit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time inorder to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to thepoint where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at anygiven time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention onsuch financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I followthe transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also inthis regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like VyasMunidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in termsof the SAMVA USA chart?Thor____________ _________ _________ __Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol@ gmail.com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stockmarkets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a>year against the currencies of six major U.S.

trading partners as record>low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy>higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally>adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo ->hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is

afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'>Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving

some ground and investors>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive>investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence,">he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to>$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance. / news/Dollar- hits-low- for-year- as-apf-365862244 8.html?x= 0 & .v=1>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.>http://thehill. com/homenews/ senate/57493- senate-must- raise-debt- ceiling-above- 12t>>Thor>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>>Thor>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol@ gmail.com>>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re:

Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has> >>passed.”>>>>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right>now that it there may not be any

room left for it to go down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>>>>Hello list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the>>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter

settles into>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its>>international acceptability. .. So, while some erosion in this may take>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent>>after the transit has passed.”>>>>____________ _________ _________ __

Cosmologer <cosmologer >>>samva >>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as

a>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.>>http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_ c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b)

large>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as>>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a>>country. Further,>>>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the>>currency of a particular country.” (Professor V.K Choudhry, 26

September>>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its

chart.>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange>>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing toinvest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange raterisk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency evenif its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has>>traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to

see>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed>>a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and>>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and

the>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency>>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could

worry>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency>>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US shouldnot be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in thechart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the nationallife, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. Thiswould concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orbis around 3°) and that

of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orbis slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such thataspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as pertheir natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been somesetbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty toone hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many

worrying about a "disorderly>>adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international>>position of the dollar hasweakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits tothe USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of>>also the faster moving planets and the whole

transit-to-transit and>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on>>the strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after thetransit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this

issue are welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>------------ --------- --------- ------

[Guest guest]

Hello dear list members,

 

The news from the financial markets is still not good for the dollar, but we could also expect volatility given the transits.

 

Dollar May Fall Further After Reaching Lowest in Almost a Year

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may extend its decline after sliding to the weakest level versus the euro in almost a year as an increase in America’s industrial output encouraged investors to shift funds to higher-yielding assets. The euro gained yesterday versus the dollar as traders succeeded on their third attempt at pushing the currency past $1.4720, a technical level just above the Dec. 18 high...The dollar changed hands at $1.4713 per euro at 6:04 a.m. in Tokyo, after trading yesterday at $1.4737, the weakest level since Sept. 25, 2008...“The dollar is on its back heels,†said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of the online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. “Until we get a setback in the risk markets, the dollar looks to remain under pressure.â€

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive & sid=aABBJcLqBQ9E

 

Thor

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Sunday, September 13, 2009 10:49:37 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello list members,

 

One interesting development last week, after transit 6th lord Jupiter came within 1° of its conjunction aspect with the natal 2nd lord Sun in the SAMVA USA chart, is the performance of gold. As one analyst noted.

 

"It was an historic week in the gold market. Gold made its highest weekly close in history and never before has it closed on a weekly basis above $1000. It was also the second highest daily London PM Fix in history. The move was not a massive vertical spike, but a move that came with a lot of back filling. This is good news."

 

This development likely reflects growing concerns over the dollar.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2009 7:14:23 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello my dear ,

 

Thank you kindly for the clarification.

 

Thor

 

 

 

SIHA <vkchoudhrySAMVA Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2009 3:07:42 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello my dear Thor, Yes, you can say so.

 

 

-

 

Cosmologer

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 9:12 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello my dear ,

 

Thank you so much for the authorative view.

 

In my own mind, I was thinking along the same lines, concerning the houses. I presume the Sun has to do with the power of the state and discernment, and Mars to do with industry and courage.

 

One more question, do you think there could be some secondary role for considering also Mercury, in terms of commerce and confidence and Jupiter, in terms of finance and expansion, with regard to the stock market.

 

Thor

 

 

 

SIHA <vkchoudhry (AT) gmail (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 3:00:14 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Hello my dear Thor, For equities Mars, Sun and the houses third, eleventh and fifth can be considered.

 

www.YourNetAstrolog er.comA-105, South City II, Gurgaon 122018-01, (India).Phones: 91 124 2219240 Mobile phone: 91 9811016333

 

-

Cosmologer

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 8:23 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

Dear Vyas,

 

Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equities as the question was raised on list.

 

As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sun and Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would need to consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps can give guidance on that.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, the analysis starts at the beginning.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AMSubject:

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at this time. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend for lower values would also be there.In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows that the US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not. More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors are responsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar more than equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?The problem is made more difficult given the international role of the dollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involving the USA, these price measures tend to move

together (especially to the down side). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlationhttp://www.philstoc kworld.com/ 2009/08/25/ banks-sentiment- and-the-long- term-dollar- equity-correlati on/Graphhttp://2.bp. blogspot. com/_OpWmYZm7O8I /SpNbtKdobnI/ AAAAAAAAAJo/ WeHn17EGdLo/ s1600-h/00binve- 001--08-- USD-SPX-long- term-correlation .pngThe US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollars when turbulence affects other parts of the world,2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place their investible surpluses of money there,3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oil and gold in global markets4. a quotation

currency, such that transfers of funds between different currencies may go through the dollar first, due its international acceptability.Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there would be pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, such that it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars, the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of a deflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were to emerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US government has gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value of the dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of their substantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reason that it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency, backed by an international

agency, like the IMF.In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamental factors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likely influence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared to reign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attract funds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up at that time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise in interest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities, which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy, would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak. The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin to expect the

economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend, could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest rates relatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view of other national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All these developments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better than others, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and vice versa, in a ceaseless search for yield.In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could be expected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge. How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquire a broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likely policy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is all

about. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it more interesting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insights into such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop such analysis would also be quite demanding.Thor____________ _________ _________ __Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate mediumand long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and carefulanalysis. Charts of

other key nations also require identification andconfidence to consider.The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- "Cosmologer" <cosmologer ><SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, butthere are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periodsof stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, inmany cases with likely

implications for the financial market, I have toadmit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time inorder to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to thepoint where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at anygiven time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention onsuch financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I followthe transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also inthis regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like VyasMunidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in termsof the SAMVA USA chart?Thor____________ _________ _________ __Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol@ gmail.com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stockmarkets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a>year against the currencies of six major U.S.

trading partners as record>low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy>higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally>adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo ->hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is

afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'>Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving

some ground and investors>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive>investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. "The Chinese have serious influence,">he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to>$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance. / news/Dollar- hits-low- for-year- as-apf-365862244 8.html?x= 0 & .v=1>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.>http://thehill. com/homenews/ senate/57493- senate-must- raise-debt- ceiling-above- 12t>>Thor>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>>Thor>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol@ gmail.com>>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re:

Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has> >>passed.”>>>>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right>now that it there may not be any

room left for it to go down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:>>>>Hello list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the>>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter

settles into>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its>>international acceptability. .. So, while some erosion in this may take>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent>>after the transit has passed.”>>>>____________ _________ _________ __

Cosmologer <cosmologer >>>samva >>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as

a>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.>>http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_ c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b)

large>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as>>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a>>country. Further,>>>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the>>currency of a particular country.” (Professor V.K Choudhry, 26

September>>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its

chart.>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange>>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing toinvest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange raterisk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency evenif its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has>>traditionally favoured a "Strong dollar" such that it would prefer to

see>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed>>a policy of "Benign neglect" such that the value of the dollar on foreign>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and>>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and

the>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency>>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could

worry>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency>>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US shouldnot be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in thechart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the nationallife, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. Thiswould concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orbis around 3°) and that

of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orbis slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such thataspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as pertheir natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been somesetbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty toone hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many

worrying about a "disorderly>>adjustment" or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international>>position of the dollar hasweakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits tothe USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of>>also the faster moving planets and the whole

transit-to-transit and>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on>>the strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after thetransit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this

issue are welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>------------ --------- --------- ------

[Guest guest]

Currently dollar is under intense pressure. Dollar index is going down every day.There is a negative headline about dollar almost everyday. Recently Daily sentiment index showed only 3% Dollar Bulls left.

These are the signs of reversal of trend and Dollar may be ready for a push up, at least for the short term.On Thu, Sep 17, 2009 at 5:45 PM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hello dear list members,

 

The news from the financial markets is still not good for the dollar, but we could also expect volatility given the transits.

 

Dollar May Fall Further After Reaching Lowest in Almost a Year

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may extend its decline after sliding to the weakest level versus the euro in almost a year as an increase in America’s industrial output encouraged investors to shift funds to higher-yielding assets. The euro gained yesterday versus the dollar as traders succeeded on their third attempt at pushing the currency past $1.4720, a technical level just above the Dec. 18 high...The dollar changed hands at $1.4713 per euro at 6:04 a.m. in Tokyo, after trading yesterday at $1.4737, the weakest level since Sept. 25, 2008...“The dollar is on its back heels,†said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of the online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. “Until we get a setback in the risk markets, the dollar looks to remain under pressure.â€

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive & sid=aABBJcLqBQ9E

 

Thor

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA

Sunday, September 13, 2009 10:49:37 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

Hello list members,

 

One interesting development last week, after transit 6th lord Jupiter came within 1° of its conjunction aspect with the natal 2nd lord Sun in the SAMVA USA chart, is the performance of gold. As one analyst noted.

 

" It was an historic week in the gold market. Gold made its highest weekly close in history and never before has it closed on a weekly basis above $1000. It was also the second highest daily London PM Fix in history. The move was not a massive vertical spike, but a move that came with a lot of back filling. This is good news. "

 

This development likely reflects growing concerns over the dollar.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA

Saturday, September 12, 2009 7:14:23 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello my dear ,

 

Thank you kindly for the clarification.

 

Thor

 

 

 

SIHA <vkchoudhrySAMVA

Saturday, September 12, 2009 3:07:42 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

Hello my dear Thor, Yes, you can say so.

 

 

-

 

Cosmologer

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 9:12 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

Hello my dear ,

 

Thank you so much for the authorative view.

 

In my own mind, I was thinking along the same lines, concerning the houses. I presume the Sun has to do with the power of the state and discernment, and Mars to do with industry and courage.

 

One more question, do you think there could be some secondary role for considering also Mercury, in terms of commerce and confidence and Jupiter, in terms of finance and expansion, with regard to the stock market.

 

Thor

 

 

 

SIHA <vkchoudhry (AT) gmail (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 3:00:14 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

Hello my dear Thor, For equities Mars, Sun and the houses third, eleventh and fifth can be considered.

 

www.YourNetAstrolog er.comA-105, South City II, Gurgaon 122018-01, (India).Phones:  91 124 2219240

Mobile phone: 91 9811016333

 

-

Cosmologer

SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 8:23 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

 

 

 

 

Dear Vyas,

 

Of course. I was only discussing the interlinkages of currency and equities as the question was raised on list.

 

As you know, in SA the indicators of currency are considered to be the Sun and Moon and the 2nd and 11th lords. For equities in general, we would need to consider carefully what indicators should primarily be looked at. Perhaps can give guidance on that.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 2:23:31 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Dear Thor,Each area should be thought of and examined independently. In this way, the

analysis starts at the beginning.Best regards,Vyas Munidas- " Cosmologer " <cosmologer >

<SAMVA >Friday, September 11, 2009 6:11 AMSubject:

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Hello dear Vyas, Rajeev and list,Yes, indeed, this is what is expected, for the dollar to weaken at this time. We could also expect it to become more volatile while the trend for

lower values would also be there.In regard to Rajeev´s interesting question, the following article shows that the US dollar and the US equities sometimes move together and sometimes not. More often together, it seems. The big question is what factors are

responsible for the movements and do these factors affect the dollar more than equities or vice versa. How to disentangle the influences?The problem is made more difficult given the international role of the

dollar. It is different from most other currencies in this regard.The rule of thumb seems to be that when there is a major crisis involving the USA, these price measures tend to move

together (especially to the down side). When conditions are more stable in the USA their paths may diverge.Banks, Sentiment and the Long Term Dollar / Equity Correlationhttp://www.philstoc kworld.com/ 2009/08/25/ banks-sentiment- and-the-long- term-dollar- equity-correlati on/

Graphhttp://2.bp. blogspot. com/_OpWmYZm7O8I /SpNbtKdobnI/ AAAAAAAAAJo/ WeHn17EGdLo/ s1600-h/00binve- 001--08-- USD-SPX-long- term-correlation .pngThe US dollar is a unique currency in many respects, it is

1. a safe haven currency such that foreign money is exchanged into dollars when turbulence affects other parts of the world,2. a reserve currency, such that many investors and banks place their investible surpluses of money there,

3. a vehicle currency, such that it is used to price commodities like oil and gold in global markets4. a quotation

currency, such that transfers of funds between different currencies may go through the dollar first, due its international acceptability.Moreover, as long as the US dollar has this international role, there would

be pressure on it to run a trade deficit and a capital account surplus, such that it supplies the international economy sufficient liquidity of dollars, the international currency. Otherwise, there would be the risk of a

deflationary contraction, unless some other international currency were to emerge to supplant it. The Chinese have recently worried the US government has gone overboard in printing money, potentially undermining the value of

the dollar (the exchange rate) and thereby imperiling the value of their substantial assets placed in the USA over the years. It is for this reason that it is promoting the creation of a truly international reserve currency,

backed by an international

agency, like the IMF.In any event, such factors need to be considered with other fundamental factors like economic growth and interest rates to study the likely influence on the dollar and equities. Let's look at two scenarios.

Scenario 1. a rise in Federal Reserve policy interest rates is geared to reign in inflation pressures in the economy. This would tend to attract funds into the USA and strengthen the dollar. Equities could be moving up at

that time. The two would move together. However, at some stage, the rise in interest rates would tend to push down the economic growth rate. Equities, which tend to be forward looking with respect to earnings in the economy,

would then be expected to decline, while the dollar could remain higher.Scenario 2. interest rates are lowered because the economy has become weak. The dollar would be expected to weaken. However, as investors begin to

expect the

economy will revive, equities, as a leading signal of that trend, could then rise. During the early growth phase, with interest rates relatively low, the dollar could remain weak and equities rising.Of course, the analysis, as Vyas hinted at, needs to be conducted in view of

other national horoscopes, to see what is going on there. All these developments tend to be relative. When one country is doing better than others, it would tend to attract the internationally mobile funds, and vice

versa, in a ceaseless search for yield.In other words, at a fundamental level, the dollar and equities could be expected to move together at certain times, but at other times to diverge. How to read that from national horoscopes is a challenge. It would reuquire

a broad understanding of the phenomena of economic imbalances and the likely policy reactions to them, which the study of business cycle swings is all

about. These cycles are also of varying length and amplitude, making it more interesting. Will a study of transits and periods allow us to gain insights into such developments? Likely they will, but the investment to develop such

analysis would also be quite demanding.Thor____________ _________ _________ __Vyas Munidas <munidas (AT) rogers (DOT) com>

SAMVA Friday, September 11, 2009 6:58:39 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

Dear Thor and Rajeev,Because there are multiple nations involved, consistently accurate mediumand long term predictions on the USD may require alot of time and carefulanalysis. Charts of

other key nations also require identification andconfidence to consider.The one-sided general view: USD may have some difficulty until mid-November.Best regards,Vyas Munidas-

" Cosmologer " <cosmologer ><SAMVA >

Friday, September 11, 2009 1:55 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1Attachment]Hello Rajeev,In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, but

there are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periodsof stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, inmany cases with likely

implications for the financial market, I have toadmit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time inorder to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to thepoint where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at any

given time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention onsuch financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I followthe transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also in

this regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like VyasMunidas, have further insights into this area of the national life in termsof the SAMVA USA chart?Thor____________ _________ _________ __

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol@ gmail.com>SAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?Thor,Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.That is how they are related.

How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stockmarkets!RajeevOn Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:

>Hello list,>>The dollar continues weak.>>Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs>Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a

>year against the currencies of six major U.S.

trading partners as record>low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy>higher-yielding assets.>http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg

>>The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally>adverse.>Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun>at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44'

>Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord>Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17°>47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo -

>hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord>Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is

afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02'>Cancer/H1.>>Thor>>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >

>SAMVA >Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM>>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>>>>>>Hello list,>>Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.>>Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000>Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT

>NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold>prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving

some ground and investors>switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders>this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive>investors away from the " safe haven " dollar and into emerging-market

>currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese>government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's>policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani,

>chief market analyst at FXSolutions. " The Chinese have serious influence, " >he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its>buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.

>The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its>highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to>$1.4490 in latertrading.>http://finance. / news/Dollar- hits-low- for-year- as-apf-365862244 8.html?x= 0 & .v=1

>>Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T>09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill>The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond>$12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests

>about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s>record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against>Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s

>deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.>http://thehill. com/homenews/ senate/57493- senate-must- raise-debt- ceiling-above- 12t>>Thor>

>>>____________ _________ _________ __Cosmologer <cosmologer >>SAMVA

>Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PM>Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>Hello Rajeev,>>Thanks for the update.>

>Thor>>>>____________ _________ _________ __Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharol@ gmail.com>>SAMVA

>Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PM>Re:

Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into

>>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”>>>This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.

>>>> >>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental> >>resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in> >>the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has

> >>passed.”>>>>This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right>now that it there may not be any

room left for it to go down.>>>>>>>>>On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer > wrote:

>>>>Hello list,>>>>Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar.>>In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on>>the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the

>>initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is>>likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the>>economic interests involved.>>>>Thor

>>>>>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter

settles into>>stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected>>in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”>>>>> SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009

>>“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international>>position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it>>continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the

>>dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its>>international acceptability. .. So, while some erosion in this may take>>place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of

>>currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent>>after the transit has passed.”>>>>____________ _________ _________ __

Cosmologer <cosmologer >>>samva

>>Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AM>>Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?>>>>>>Hello list members,>>>>There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about

>>the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.>>>>Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)>>By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman>>Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the

>>world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as

a>>reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money>>supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market>>counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a

>>report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their>>dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback>>against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s

>>high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency>>reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace>>the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.

>>http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_ c>>>>The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b)

large>>countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they>>think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as>>credible as it was.>>>>To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the

>>primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a>>country. Further,>>>>“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the>>currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon.

>>The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the>>second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh>>house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the

>>currency of a particular country.” (Professor V.K Choudhry, 26

September>>2000)>>>>In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart,>>respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house>>and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an

>>aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an>>aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In>>sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the

>>dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of>>the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a>>country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held

>>by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve>>currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its

chart.>>Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its>>foreign debt than the expectations about the future value of its exchange>>rate wouldsuggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing to

invest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange raterisk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency evenif its value tends to fluctuate.>>>>To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA

>>USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the>>interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects>>expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of

>>the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has>>traditionally favoured a " Strong dollar " such that it would prefer to

see>>the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed>>a policy of " Benign neglect " such that the value of the dollar on foreign>>exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The

>>government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but>>only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going>>on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and

>>transit.>>>>Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord>>Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the>>strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects

>>directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental>>influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and

the>>placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be>>placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the>>US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency

>>status?>>>>Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30'>>Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23°>>44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to

>>an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter>>has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to>>increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing

>>inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise>>interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could

worry>>investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it>>will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction>>this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests

>>that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain>>on the dollar strength, including concerns about its reserve currency>>status. However, given thestrength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US should

not be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in thechart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule,which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the national

life, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. Thiswould concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orbis around 3°) and that

of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orbis slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such thataspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as pertheir natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been some

setbacks or a visible trend worsening in this situation in the past fifty toone hundred years.>>>>Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the>>early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a

>>serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar>>survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s.>>From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade

>>balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to>>reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many

worrying about a " disorderly>>adjustment " or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this>>has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on>>which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a

>>factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and>>Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their>>growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international

>>position of the dollar hasweakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits tothe USA.>>>>Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of>>Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international

>>acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of>>also the faster moving planets and the whole

transit-to-transit and>>transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of>>the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors>>could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk

>>of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could>>expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in>>the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and

>>store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely>>continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in>>this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on

>>the strengths of currencystrength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after thetransit has passed.>>>>The views of list members on this

issue are welcomed.>>>>Thor>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>------------ --------- --------- ------