USA: the recession may be over

[Guest guest]

Hello dear list members,

 

predicted the economy would improve from August of 2009, albeit some further setbacks in the financial market were to be expected in the fall. Well today, when Saturn has entered Virgo, the following news arrives.

 

Fed findings indicate recession may be over

AP – 9 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Economic activity is stabilizing or improving in the vast majority of the country, according to a government survey released Wednesday. The findings indicate that the worst recession since the 1930s may be over. The Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow once again in the current quarter. In the new survey, all but one of the Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was "stable," showed "signs of stabilization" or had "firmed." The one exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared to be

"moderating."

http://news./s/ap/20090909/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy

 

I think congratulations are in order for our dear .

 

Thor

[Guest guest]

Just another bubble. The recovery will take years. The dollar's

collapse won't help. Also California has 40% " real " unemployment.

 

 

Cosmologer wrote:

> Hello dear list members,

>

> predicted the economy would improve from August of 2009,

albeit some further setbacks in the financial market were to be expected in the

fall. Well today, when Saturn has entered Virgo, the following news arrives.

>

> Fed findings indicate recession may be over

> AP – 9 mins ago

> WASHINGTON – Economic activity is stabilizing or improving in the vast

majority of the country, according to a government survey released Wednesday.

The findings indicate that the worst recession since the 1930s may be over. The

Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed

Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to

grow once again in the current quarter. In the new survey, all but one of the

Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was " stable, " showed " signs of

stabilization " or had " firmed. " The one exception was the St. Louis region,

which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared

to be " moderating. "

> http://news./s/ap/20090909/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy

>

> I think congratulations are in order for our dear .

>

> Thor

>

>

>

>

[Guest guest]

Hi Brian,

 

All the Fed report states is that the recession (decline in incomes or output) has likely come to an end.

predicted the recovery would be sluggish. So there is no contradiction there. So, all I was doing was to point to the timing of this finding, in view of the prediction made.

 

As for a cynical stance towards public announcements that is understandable. Most such announcements in the pre-crash period were either wrong or painted a glossier picture of developments than was warranted. However, in the post-crash phase, the cat is out of the bag or the damage has been done. Given that, I think it is safe to take the Fed's word for it when it comes to an assessment of economic activity based on actual measurements.

 

As for your claim that California's "real" unemployment rate is 40%. Do you define that as a share of the labour force, i.e. those either with a job or actively seeking one? If so, that would represent a near collapse of the state economy, the 6th largest in the world.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Brian Conrad <brianjtoolsSAMVA Sent: Wednesday, September 9, 2009 7:36:06 PMRe: USA: the recession may be overJust another bubble. The recovery will take years. The dollar's collapse won't help. Also California has 40% "real" unemployment.Cosmologer wrote:> Hello dear list members,>> predicted the economy would improve from August of 2009, albeit some further setbacks in the financial market were to be expected in the fall. Well today, when Saturn has entered Virgo, the following news arrives.>> Fed findings indicate recession may be over> AP – 9 mins ago> WASHINGTON – Economic

activity is stabilizing or improving in the vast majority of the country, according to a government survey released Wednesday. The findings indicate that the worst recession since the 1930s may be over. The Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow once again in the current quarter. In the new survey, all but one of the Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was "stable," showed "signs of stabilization" or had "firmed." The one exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared to be "moderating."> http://news./s/ap/20090909/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy> > I think congratulations are in order for our dear .>>

Thor>>> > ---

[Guest guest]

I have never trusted the Fed.  I think a lot of these announcements are

"spin."   It's like cheer leading the populace into looking at the

glass 1/4 full instead of 3/4 empty. 

;-)

 

I prefer to read the more cynical economists as they usually pan out as

being the closest to the truth.

 

As for California unemployment here is the article from the SF

Chronicle:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/09/06/state/n000211D96.DTL

 

Brian

 

Cosmologer wrote:

 

Hi Brian,

All the Fed report states is that the recession (decline in incomes or output) has likely come to an end. 

predicted the recovery would be sluggish. So there is no contradiction there. So, all I was doing was to point to the timing of this finding, in view of the prediction made. 

As for a cynical stance towards public announcements that is understandable. Most such announcements in the pre-crash period were either wrong or painted a glossier picture of developments than was warranted. However, in the post-crash phase, the cat is out of the bag or the damage has been done. Given that, I think it is safe to take the Fed's word for it when it comes to an assessment of economic activity based on actual measurements. As for your claim that California's "real" unemployment rate is 40%. Do you define that as a share of the labour force, i.e. those either with a job or actively seeking one? If so, that would represent a near collapse of the state economy, the 6th largest in the world.

Thor

________________________________

Brian Conrad <brianjtools

SAMVA

Wednesday, September 9, 2009 7:36:06 PM

Re: USA: the recession may be over

Just another bubble.  The recovery will take years.  The dollar's collapse won't help.  Also California has 40% "real" unemployment.

Cosmologer wrote:

 

 

Hello dear list members,

predicted the economy would improve from August of 2009, albeit some further setbacks in the financial market were to be expected in the fall. Well today, when Saturn has entered Virgo, the following news arrives.

Fed findings indicate recession may be over

AP – 9 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Economic activity is stabilizing or improving in the vast majority of the country, according to a government survey released Wednesday. The findings indicate that the worst recession since the 1930s may be over. The Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow once again in the current quarter. In the new survey, all but one of the Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was "stable," showed "signs of stabilization" or had "firmed." The one exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared to be "moderating."

http://news./s/ap/20090909/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy

  I think congratulations are in order for our dear .

Thor

       

 

 

---

 

[Guest guest]

Hi Brian,

 

Each to his own on believing or not believing the official reports.

 

As for the unemployment rate in the USA and California, here is a graph of the national unemployment rate, which stood at 9.7% of the labour force in August 2009...

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers & series_id=LNS14000000

 

 

....and another for the California unemployment rate, which stood at 11.9% of the labour force in July 2009:

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers & series_id=LASST06000003

The data you pointed to suggested 4 out of 10 of working age were unemployed. This would include a all the students, around 16-24 years old, that are not counted in the labour force as well as all those otherwise not looking for a job due to e.g. disability, illness or early retirement.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Brian Conrad <brianjtoolsSAMVA Sent: Wednesday, September 9, 2009 8:10:23 PMRe: USA: the recession may be over

I have never trusted the Fed. I think a lot of these announcements are "spin." It's like cheer leading the populace into looking at the glass 1/4 full instead of 3/4 empty. ;-) I prefer to read the more cynical economists as they usually pan out as being the closest to the truth.As for California unemployment here is the article from the SF Chronicle:http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/09/06/state/n000211D96.DTLBrianCosmologer wrote: Hi Brian,

All the Fed report states is that the recession (decline in incomes or output) has likely come to an end.

predicted the recovery would be sluggish. So there is no contradiction there. So, all I was doing was to point to the timing of this finding, in view of the prediction made.

As for a cynical stance towards public announcements that is understandable. Most such announcements in the pre-crash period were either wrong or painted a glossier picture of developments than was warranted. However, in the post-crash phase, the cat is out of the bag or the damage has been done. Given that, I think it is safe to take the Fed's word for it when it comes to an assessment of economic activity based on actual measurements. As for your claim that California's "real" unemployment rate is 40%. Do you define that as a share of the labour force, i.e. those either with a job or actively seeking one? If so, that would represent a near collapse of the state economy, the 6th largest in the world.

Thor

________________________________

Brian Conrad <brianjtools

SAMVA

Wednesday, September 9, 2009 7:36:06 PM

Re: USA: the recession may be over

Just another bubble. The recovery will take years. The dollar's collapse won't help. Also California has 40% "real" unemployment.

Cosmologer wrote:

 

Hello dear list members,

predicted the economy would improve from August of 2009, albeit some further setbacks in the financial market were to be expected in the fall. Well today, when Saturn has entered Virgo, the following news arrives.

Fed findings indicate recession may be over

AP – 9 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Economic activity is stabilizing or improving in the vast majority of the country, according to a government survey released Wednesday. The findings indicate that the worst recession since the 1930s may be over. The Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow once again in the current quarter. In the new survey, all but one of the Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was "stable," showed "signs of stabilization" or had "firmed." The one exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared to be "moderating."

http://news./s/ap/20090909/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy

I think congratulations are in order for our dear .

Thor

---

 

[Guest guest]

Dear Thor and Brian:

 

What do you think the 8-month debilitated Mars, (Oct. 2009 to May 2010) will

represent?

 

It may be possible that there will be vulnerability with property, fires,

military, police, executives, etc..

 

Maybe there will be another downturn with the housing market?

 

An especially difficult time could be when Mars transits Ketu during the first

half of October.

 

Best wishes,

 

David Hawthorne

 

 

 

SAMVA [sAMVA ] On Behalf Of Brian

Conrad

Wednesday, September 09, 2009 2:36 PM

SAMVA

Re: USA: the recession may be over

 

Just another bubble. The recovery will take years. The dollar's

collapse won't help. Also California has 40% " real " unemployment.

 

 

Cosmologer wrote:

> Hello dear list members,

>

> predicted the economy would improve from August of 2009,

albeit some further setbacks in the financial market were to be expected in the

fall. Well today, when Saturn has entered Virgo, the following news arrives.

>

> Fed findings indicate recession may be over

> AP 9 mins ago

> WASHINGTON Economic activity is stabilizing or improving in the vast majority

of the country, according to a government survey released Wednesday. The

findings indicate that the worst recession since the 1930s may be over. The

Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed

Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to

grow once again in the current quarter. In the new survey, all but one of the

Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was " stable, " showed " signs of

stabilization " or had " firmed. " The one exception was the St. Louis region,

which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared

to be " moderating. "

> http://news./s/ap/20090909/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy

>

> I think congratulations are in order for our dear .

>

> Thor

>

>

>

>

 

 

 

---

 

 

[Guest guest]

Dear David,

 

That is a very good question. Right now Mars is badly placed in the 12th house, and typically this is adverse for confidence of investors, etc., and especially when it is transit afflicted. Mars will be in this house until the first week of October. So, we can also follow its indications during this time, while in that house.

 

 

In SA, Mars the general indications of Mars are linked to professions like the military, police, engineering, surgeons and executives. It also rules over industry and productive activities requiring heat and force.

 

When strong, martian attributes like action, ambition, physical strength, courage, heroism and a fighting spirit increase, while weakness of Mars is linked to a decline in such attributes.

 

Accordingly we can expect that in general the transit of Mars through its sign of debilitation will not be helpful to professions and indications and attributes ruled by Mars and that these will do less well during this transit. However, we also know that close attention needs to be paid to the functional nature of Mars and its natal strength.

 

In the 20° Cancer rising SAMVA USA chart, Mars is 10th lord (law) and is strong in Scorpio and 5th house (creativity), enjoying the aspect of Moon as 1st lord (self) placed in the 11th house (ideals). As a result, its general and functional qualities find impressive expression in the national life.

 

 

As for the functional influences and qualities, we can note that the tenth house rules over the "executive, parliament, administration, foreign trade, law and order." These indications find expression in the fifth house, which rules over "intellectuals, emotional stability, communal harmony, speculative nature of the people, investments, stock exchange, children, population, universities, morals and values of the people." In other words, there is a creative, speculative and value oriented influence on the executive, administration, law and foreign trade. The aspect from the first lord then imbues the above qualities

with those of the 1st house, including the "general conditions of the country as a whole, people and their general outlook, state of law and order, public health, government, reputation, valor and its position in the world." In other words, American's identify with the Mars in their chart and what it stands for. Is it any wonder, given that this mutual aspect between the 1st and 10th lords has given American great fame linked to their creative and humane founding legal documents, such as the Declaration of Independence, US Constitution and Bill of Rights.

 

As the Venus-Saturn period is operating, I would expect that the slow going of the economy, emphasis on the requirements of common people would be a dominant trend. That said, while Mars is going through the 1st house, in its sign of debilitation, it will seem as that which it stands for in national life has a hollow ring to it and that the normally ebuillient martian spirit will be subdued. When Mars becomes afflicted in transit, the normally resilient martian elements will be less strong than normal to deal with the challenge.

 

A similar analysis could be performed on how the Mars energy in other national horoscopes will fare.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

 

David Hawthorne <davidSAMVA Sent: Wednesday, September 9, 2009 8:27:27 PMRE: USA: the recession may be overDear Thor and Brian:What do you think the 8-month debilitated Mars, (Oct. 2009 to May 2010) will represent?It may be possible that there will be vulnerability with property, fires, military, police, executives, etc..Maybe there will be another downturn with the housing market?An especially difficult time could be when Mars transits Ketu during the first half of October.Best wishes, David HawthorneSAMVA [sAMVA ] On Behalf Of Brian ConradWednesday, September 09, 2009 2:36 PMSAMVA Subject: Re: USA: the recession may be overJust another bubble. The recovery will take years. The dollar's collapse won't help. Also California has 40% "real" unemployment.Cosmologer wrote:> Hello dear list members,>> predicted the economy would improve from August of 2009, albeit some further setbacks in the financial market were to be expected in the fall. Well today, when Saturn has entered Virgo, the following news arrives.>> Fed findings indicate recession may be over> AP 9

mins ago> WASHINGTON Economic activity is stabilizing or improving in the vast majority of the country, according to a government survey released Wednesday. The findings indicate that the worst recession since the 1930s may be over. The Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow once again in the current quarter. In the new survey, all but one of the Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was "stable," showed "signs of stabilization" or had "firmed." The one exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared to be "moderating."> http://news./s/ap/20090909/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy> > I think congratulations are in order for our dear .>> Thor>>>

> ---

[Guest guest]

Dear Thor..

 

Thanks for the great post.

 

 

David Hawthorne

 

 

 

 

 

SAMVA [sAMVA ] On

Behalf Of Cosmologer

Wednesday, September 09, 2009 4:26 PM

SAMVA

Re: USA: the recession may be over

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dear David,

 

 

 

 

 

That is a very good

question. Right now Mars is badly placed in the 12th house, and typically this

is adverse for confidence of investors, etc., and especially when it is transit

afflicted. Mars will be in this house until the first week of October. So, we

can also follow its indications during this time, while in that house.

 

 

 

 

 

In SA, Mars the general indications of Mars are linked to

professions like the military, police, engineering, surgeons and executives. It also rules

over industry

and productive activities requiring heat and force.

 

When strong, martian attributes like action, ambition,

physical strength, courage, heroism and a fighting spirit increase, while

weakness of Mars is linked to a decline in such attributes.

 

Accordingly we can expect that in general the transit of Mars

through its sign of debilitation will not be helpful to professions and

indications and attributes ruled by Mars and that

these will do less well during this transit. However, we

also know that close attention needs to be paid to the functional nature

of Mars and its natal strength.

 

 

 

In the 20° Cancer

rising SAMVA USA chart, Mars is 10th lord (law) and is strong in

Scorpio and 5th house (creativity), enjoying the aspect of Moon as 1st lord

(self) placed in the 11th house (ideals). As a result, its general and

functional qualities find impressive expression in the national life.

 

 

 

As for the functional influences and qualities, we can note that

the tenth house rules over the " executive, parliament, administration, foreign trade, law and

order. " These

indications find expression in the fifth house, which rules over " intellectuals,

emotional stability, communal harmony, speculative nature of the people,

investments, stock exchange, children, population, universities, morals and

values of the people. " In other words, there is a creative, speculative

and value oriented influence on the executive, administration, law and foreign

trade. The

aspect from the first lord then imbues the above qualities

with those of the 1st house, including the " general conditions

of the country as a whole, people and their general outlook, state of law and

order, public health, government, reputation, valor and its position in the

world. "

In other words, American's identify with the Mars in their chart and what it

stands for. Is it any wonder, given that this mutual aspect between the 1st and

10th lords has given American great fame linked to their creative and humane

founding legal documents, such as the Declaration of Independence, US

Constitution and Bill of Rights.

 

As the

Venus-Saturn period is operating, I would expect that the slow going of the

economy, emphasis on the requirements of common people would be a dominant

trend. That said, while Mars is going through the 1st house, in its sign of debilitation,

it will seem as that which it stands for in national life has a hollow ring to

it and that the normally ebuillient martian spirit will be subdued. When Mars

becomes afflicted in transit, the normally resilient martian elements will be

less strong than normal to deal with the challenge.

 

A

similar analysis could be performed on how the Mars energy in other

national horoscopes will fare.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

David Hawthorne <david

SAMVA

Wednesday, September 9, 2009 8:27:27 PM

RE: USA: the recession may be over

 

Dear Thor and Brian:

 

What do you think the 8-month debilitated Mars, (Oct. 2009 to May 2010) will

represent?

 

It may be possible that there will be vulnerability with property, fires,

military, police, executives, etc..

 

Maybe there will be another downturn with the housing market?

 

An especially difficult time could be when Mars transits Ketu during the first

half of October.

 

Best wishes,

 

David Hawthorne

 

 

 

SAMVA [sAMVA ] On Behalf Of

Brian Conrad

Wednesday, September 09, 2009 2:36 PM

SAMVA

Re: USA: the recession may be over

 

Just another bubble. The recovery will take years. The dollar's

collapse won't help. Also California has 40% " real "

unemployment.

 

 

Cosmologer wrote:

> Hello dear list members,

>

> predicted the economy would improve from August of

2009, albeit some further setbacks in the financial market were to be expected

in the fall. Well today, when Saturn has entered Virgo, the following news

arrives.

>

> Fed findings indicate recession may be over

> AP 9 mins ago

> WASHINGTON Economic activity is stabilizing or improving in the vast

majority of the country, according to a government survey released Wednesday.

The findings indicate that the worst recession since the 1930s may be over. The

Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed

Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to

grow once again in the current quarter. In the new survey, all but one of the

Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was " stable, "

showed " signs of stabilization " or had " firmed. " The one

exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of

decline in economic activity appeared to be " moderating. "

> http://news./s/ap/20090909/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy

>

> I think congratulations are in order for our dear .

>

> Thor

>

>

>

>

 

 

 

---

 

 

[Guest guest]

Hello list members,

 

Here is more information about the US economy.

 

Trade, jobless claims figures show recession fades

AP – 1 hr 14 mins ago

WASHINGTON – The U.S. trade deficit in July hit the highest level in six months as a record rise in imports outpaced a third straight increase in foreign demand for American products, according to government data released Thursday. Both gains provided more evidence that the worst recession since the 1930s was losing its grip on the global economy.A rebound in the American labor market has yet to take hold, but first-time claims for jobless benefits did fall more than expected last week. Companies are laying off fewer workers as the U.S. economy shows consistent signs that the recession is over. The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that 11 of its 12 regional banks reported the economy is stabilizing, an improvement from previous reports.http://news./s/ap/20090910/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

 

Thor

 

 

 

David Hawthorne <davidSAMVA Sent: Wednesday, September 9, 2009 10:40:08 PMRE: USA: the recession may be over

 

 

Dear Thor..

 

Thanks for the great post.

 

 

David Hawthorne

 

 

 

 

SAMVA [sAMVA ] On Behalf Of CosmologerWednesday, September 09, 2009 4:26 PMSAMVA Subject: Re: USA: the recession may be over

 

 

 

 

Dear David,

 

 

 

That is a very good question. Right now Mars is badly placed in the 12th house, and typically this is adverse for confidence of investors, etc., and especially when it is transit afflicted. Mars will be in this house until the first week of October. So, we can also follow its indications during this time, while in that house.

 

 

 

In SA, Mars the general indications of Mars are linked to professions like the military, police, engineering, surgeons and executives. It also rules over industry and productive activities requiring heat and force.

 

When strong, martian attributes like action, ambition, physical strength, courage, heroism and a fighting spirit increase, while weakness of Mars is linked to a decline in such attributes.

 

Accordingly we can expect that in general the transit of Mars through its sign of debilitation will not be helpful to professions and indications and attributes ruled by Mars and that these will do less well during this transit. However, we also know that close attention needs to be paid to the functional nature of Mars and its natal strength.

 

 

In the 20° Cancer rising SAMVA USA chart, Mars is 10th lord (law) and is strong in Scorpio and 5th house (creativity), enjoying the aspect of Moon as 1st lord (self) placed in the 11th house (ideals). As a result, its general and functional qualities find impressive expression in the national life.

 

 

As for the functional influences and qualities, we can note that the tenth house rules over the "executive, parliament, administration, foreign trade, law and order." These indications find expression in the fifth house, which rules over "intellectuals, emotional stability, communal harmony, speculative nature of the people, investments, stock exchange, children, population, universities, morals and values of the people." In other words, there is a creative, speculative and value oriented influence on the executive, administration, law and

foreign trade. The aspect from the first lord then imbues the above qualities with those of the 1st house, including the "general conditions of the country as a whole, people and their general outlook, state of law and order, public health, government, reputation, valor and its position in the world." In other words, American's identify with the Mars in their chart and what it stands for. Is it any wonder, given that this mutual aspect between the 1st and 10th lords has given American great fame linked to their creative and humane founding legal documents, such as the Declaration of Independence, US Constitution and Bill of Rights.

 

As the Venus-Saturn period is operating, I would expect that the slow going of the economy, emphasis on the requirements of common people would be a dominant trend. That said, while Mars is going through the 1st house, in its sign of debilitation, it will seem as that which it stands for in national life has a hollow ring to it and that the normally ebuillient martian spirit will be subdued. When Mars becomes afflicted in transit, the normally resilient martian elements will be less strong than normal to deal with the challenge.

 

A similar analysis could be performed on how the Mars energy in other national horoscopes will fare.

 

Thor

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

David Hawthorne <davidSAMVA Sent: Wednesday, September 9, 2009 8:27:27 PMRE: USA: the recession may be overDear Thor and Brian:What do you think the 8-month debilitated Mars, (Oct. 2009 to May 2010) will represent?It may be possible that there will be vulnerability with property, fires, military, police, executives, etc..Maybe there will be another downturn with the housing market?An especially difficult time could be when Mars transits Ketu during the first half of October.Best wishes, David Hawthorne-----Original

Message-----SAMVA [sAMVA ] On Behalf Of Brian ConradWednesday, September 09, 2009 2:36 PMSAMVA Subject: Re: USA: the recession may be overJust another bubble. The recovery will take years. The dollar's collapse won't help. Also California has 40% "real" unemployment.Cosmologer wrote:> Hello dear list members,>> predicted the economy would improve from August of 2009, albeit some further setbacks in the financial market were to be expected in the fall. Well

today, when Saturn has entered Virgo, the following news arrives.>> Fed findings indicate recession may be over> AP 9 mins ago> WASHINGTON Economic activity is stabilizing or improving in the vast majority of the country, according to a government survey released Wednesday. The findings indicate that the worst recession since the 1930s may be over. The Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow once again in the current quarter. In the new survey, all but one of the Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was "stable," showed "signs of stabilization" or had "firmed." The one exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared to be "moderating."> http://news./s/ap/20090909/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy>

> I think congratulations are in order for our dear .>> Thor>>> > ---

[Guest guest]

Bernanke says recession 'very likely over'

 

DJI 9,642.97 +16.17

AP – 1 hr 28 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that the worst recession since the 1930s is probably over. Bernanke said the economy likely is growing now, but it won't be sufficient to prevent the unemployment rate, now at a 26-year high of 9.7 percent, from rising. "The recession is very likely over at this point," Bernanke said in responding to questions at the Brookings Institution.

http://news./s/ap/20090915/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bernanke

 

 

 

 

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Wednesday, September 9, 2009 8:26:19 PMRe: USA: the recession may be over

 

 

Hi Brian,

 

Each to his own on believing or not believing the official reports.

 

As for the unemployment rate in the USA and California, here is a graph of the national unemployment rate, which stood at 9.7% of the labour force in August 2009...

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers & series_id=LNS14000000

 

 

....and another for the California unemployment rate, which stood at 11.9% of the labour force in July 2009:

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers & series_id=LASST06000003

The data you pointed to suggested 4 out of 10 of working age were unemployed. This would include a all the students, around 16-24 years old, that are not counted in the labour force as well as all those otherwise not looking for a job due to e.g. disability, illness or early retirement.

 

Thor

 

 

 

Brian Conrad <brianjtoolsSAMVA Sent: Wednesday, September 9, 2009 8:10:23 PMRe: USA: the recession may be over

I have never trusted the Fed. I think a lot of these announcements are "spin." It's like cheer leading the populace into looking at the glass 1/4 full instead of 3/4 empty. ;-) I prefer to read the more cynical economists as they usually pan out as being the closest to the truth.As for California unemployment here is the article from the SF Chronicle:http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/09/06/state/n000211D96.DTLBrianCosmologer wrote: Hi Brian,

All the Fed report states is that the recession (decline in incomes or output) has likely come to an end.

predicted the recovery would be sluggish. So there is no contradiction there. So, all I was doing was to point to the timing of this finding, in view of the prediction made.

As for a cynical stance towards public announcements that is understandable. Most such announcements in the pre-crash period were either wrong or painted a glossier picture of developments than was warranted. However, in the post-crash phase, the cat is out of the bag or the damage has been done. Given that, I think it is safe to take the Fed's word for it when it comes to an assessment of economic activity based on actual measurements. As for your claim that California's "real" unemployment rate is 40%. Do you define that as a share of the labour force, i.e. those either with a job or actively seeking one? If so, that would represent a near collapse of the state economy, the 6th largest in the world.

Thor

________________________________

Brian Conrad <brianjtools

SAMVA

Wednesday, September 9, 2009 7:36:06 PM

Re: USA: the recession may be over

Just another bubble. The recovery will take years. The dollar's collapse won't help. Also California has 40% "real" unemployment.

Cosmologer wrote:

 

Hello dear list members,

predicted the economy would improve from August of 2009, albeit some further setbacks in the financial market were to be expected in the fall. Well today, when Saturn has entered Virgo, the following news arrives.

Fed findings indicate recession may be over

AP – 9 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Economic activity is stabilizing or improving in the vast majority of the country, according to a government survey released Wednesday. The findings indicate that the worst recession since the 1930s may be over. The Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow once again in the current quarter. In the new survey, all but one of the Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was "stable," showed "signs of stabilization" or had "firmed." The one exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared to be "moderating."

http://news./s/ap/20090909/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy

I think congratulations are in order for our dear .

Thor

---