Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen? [1 Attachment]

September 11, 2009

Thor,Thanks for your response.On Thu, Sep 10, 2009 at 10:55 PM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

[Attachment(s) from Cosmologer included below]

Hello Rajeev,

In general the two (dollar and US stocks) do follow similar trends, but there are also periods of clear divergences. While we can point to periods of stress, associated with stationary transits for upto three months, in many cases with likely implications for the financial market, I have to admit that I haven't been interested enough to devote sufficient time in order to master a reading of the SAMVA USA chart in this regard, or to the point where I can predict what both stocks and the dollar will do at any given time with confidence. Some astrologers devote all their attention on such financial market predictions. I have decided not to do that. I follow the transits in general terms and when the transits are interesting also in this regard I mention it. Perhaps some other list members, like Vyas Munidas, have further insights into this area of the

national life in terms of the SAMVA USA chart?

Thor

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharolSAMVA

Friday, September 11, 2009 5:23:50 AMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

Thor,

Strength in dollar should directly result in fall in US Stock markets.

That is how they are related.

How will that show up in transits...strength in dollar and fall in stock markets!

Rajeev

On Wed, Sep 9, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

Hello list,

The dollar continues weak.

Dollar Falls to Lowest in Almost Year on Borrowing Costs

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the weakest level in almost a year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as record low borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the greenback and buy higher-yielding assets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aMjc5oqgd2Fg

The Venus - Saturn period is operating and the transits are generally adverse.

Transit Jupiter is now at 24° 57' Capricorn/H7 conjunct natal 2nd lord Sun at 23° 44' Capricorn and opposite transit 4th lord Venus at 22° 44' Cancer/H1. While transit Sun is strong at 23° 05' Leo/H2, transit 10th lord Mars is badly placed at 15° Gemini/H12, under aspect from natal Ketu at 17° 47' Libra/H12. Sub-period lord transit 8th lord Saturn is at 29° 59' Leo - hence well placed but weak in old age and combust. Finally, natal 6th lord Jupiter at 4° 25' Scorpio/H5 is afflicted by transit Ketu at 5° 02' Cancer/H1.

Thor

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA

Tuesday, September 8, 2009 8:32:49 PM

Re: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

Hello list,

Here are some fresh news stories about the dollar and debt.

Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000

Tuesday September 8, 2009, 3:49 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors switched funds into riskier investments. Commitments from global leaders this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive investors away from the " safe haven " dollar and into emerging-market currencies and equities, analysts said. Published comments from a Chinese government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FXSolutions. " The Chinese have serious influence, " he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending. The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its highest level this year, from $1.4337 late

Monday, before backtracking to $1.4490 in later trading.

http://finance./news/Dollar-hits-low-for-year-as-apf-3658622448.html?x=0 & .v=1

Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T

09/07/09 12:11 PM ET – The Hill

The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond $12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests about the record levels of red ink. The move will highlight the nation’s record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493-senate-must-raise-debt-ceiling-above-12t

Thor

Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA

Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:48:33 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

Hello Rajeev,

Thanks for the update.

Thor

Rajeev Bharol <rajeev.bharolSAMVA

Tuesday, September 8, 2009 5:02:47 PMRe: Re: Will the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

>>SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

>>“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”

This infact has shown up in dollar. Dollar has weakened in last few weeks.

>>So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the >>SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.”

This too is likely to come out true. Dollar is already so beaten up right now that it there may not be any room left for it to go down.

On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 6:43 AM, Cosmologer <cosmologer wrote:

Hello list,

Here are some earlier posts on SAMVA concerning the future of the dollar. In any event, the UN report has ratched up the international pressure on the reserve status of the US dollar. Moroever, we can surmise that the initiative by the UN officials in Geneva Switzerland in this regard is likely not going to be appreciated by the US government, given the economic interests involved.

Thor

SAMVA list, 10:51 AM, 8/24 2009

“...in coming few months, while transit 6th lord Jupiter settles into stationary conjunction of 2nd lord Sun in the chart....may be reflected in...a decline in the US dollar exchange rate.”

SAMVA list, 8:22:14 AM, 8/19 2009

“Will the US lose its reserve currency status?...the international position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to the USA...there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international acceptability... So, while some erosion in this may take place, the fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.”

Cosmologer <cosmologersamva

Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:22:14 AMWill the US dollar weaken or strengthen?

Hello list members,

There are differing views on the fate of the dollar. Here is a story about the latest view coming out of the world's largest bond fund.

Pimco Says Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes (Update2)

By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as its status as a reserve currency is eroded by concerns about the increasing U.S. money supply. The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a report on the company’s Web site. Investors should consider cutting their dollar holdings, he said… The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, has fallen 12 percent from this year’s high in March. China , the world’s largest holder of foreign- currency reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087 & sid=aeD0JMxdEA_c

The story says two things: a) the dollar will weaken and b) large countries will move into other currencies with their reserves, as they think the US has an unfair advantage or that the dollar is no longer as credible as it was.

To back up a bit, let's recall that has said that the primary determinant of monetary strength is the economic strength of a country. Further,

“It is the power of the state which is shown through the strength of the currency. The authority is first vested in the Sun and then in the Moon. The good financial strength of the nation/wealth is seen through the second house and the regular flow of income is seen through the eleventh house. Taken all these four together they show the real strength of the currency of a particular country.” (Professor V.K Choudhry, 26 September 2000)

In the SAMVA USA chart, the Sun and Moon are strong in the chart, respectively as 1st and 2nd house lords. Sun is placed in the 7th house and receives an aspect from 8th lord Saturn and its house MEP receives an aspect from Rahu. Moon is placed in the non-MT sign 11th house, with an aspect from both 6th lord Jupiter and 10th lord Mars in the 5th house. In sum, the currency strength of the USA should be quite good, although the dollar would be vulnerable to transit strain. Moreover, while the value of the currency may change, a general rule would be that the currency of a country with these placements would be fairly trustworthy and readily held by foreigners. In other words, the status of the dollar as a reserve currency is due to the strength of the country as reflected in its chart. Related to this is the fact that the US pays lower interest rates on its foreign debt than the expectations about the future

value of its exchange rate would suggest. Moreover, foreign investors have in the past been willing to invest in US dollar denominated debt, thereby shouldering the exchange rate risk. In short, the US has tended to benefit from the strong currency even if its value tends to fluctuate.

To the above definition we could add that Jupiter as 6th lord in the SAMVA USA chart plays a role in the monetary policy, which determines the interest rates (cost of borrowing) in the country, which in turn affects expectations about the price level (inflation) and also the strength of the currency. Moreover, as a strong country the US government has traditionally favoured a " Strong dollar " such that it would prefer to see the dollar strong rather than weak. At the same time, it has also followed a policy of " Benign neglect " such that the value of the dollar on foreign exchange markets is determined by the international investment flows. The government does not tend to gear interest rate policy to the dollar, but only for domestic considerrations. So, to fully understand what is going on we need to consider also the placement of Jupiter in the chart and transit.

Natally, Jupiter is strong and receives a favourable aspect from 1st lord Moon. In other words, the financial stability is strengthened by the strength of the country itself. Remember, that the 2nd lord of Sun aspects directly the most effective point of the 1st house. A detrimental influence is the aspect of Rahu to the MEP of the 6th house and the placement of the 4th lord Venus in the 6th house. Well, now we should be placed to address the second issue of the reserve currency status of the US dollar. What could happen to it? Will the US lose its reserve currency status?

Let us now look at the transits. Today, transit Jupiter is at 27° 30' Capricorn, where it is beginning to influence natal 2nd lord Sun at 23° 44' Capricorn. At this time, transit Jupiter is itself closely subject to an afflicting aspect, from natal 8th lord Saturn at 26° 44'. As Jupiter has an influence on monetary policy and inflation, this would tend to increase concerns about this area of national life, i.e. that increasing inflation could be on the horizon and the associated need to raise interest rates to clamp down on it. Such a situation could worry investors. As this aspect is a more temporary influence we could think it will not be that significant. Of greater importance is the conjunction this autumn of transit 6th lord Jupiter to natal Sun. This aspect suggests that concerns about financial stability and inflation may place a strain on the dollar strength,

including concerns about its reserve currency status. However, given the strength of the Sun and Moon in the chart, the position of the US should not be adversely harmed. That said, as there are malefic influences in the chart which have an orb of few degrees, we may consider the fifty year rule, which suggests these influences may become increasingly felt in the national life, but limited by the extent of the natal influence of the aspect. This would concern e.g. the aspect of natal 8th lord Saturn to the natal Sun (orb is around 3°) and that of natal Rahu to the 2nd house and the 6th house (orb is slightly over 2°). The USA has now existed for over 200 years, such that aspects within a 4° orb in a national chart should be fully felt as per their natal influence. This would suggest that there could have been some setbacks or a visible trend worsening in this

situation in the past fifty to one hundred years.

Historically, the US moved the dollar of the gold-exchange standard in the early 1970s. This was a blow to the dollar. The oil crisis also put a serious dent in to the US economy in the 1970s, but still the dollar survived as a reserve currency and regained its value into the mid 1980s. From WWII to the early 1980s, the US enjoyed a surplus on its trade balance. Since then, however, it has had a deficit. This has tended to reduce the lustre of the dollar, with many worrying about a " disorderly adjustment " or a rapid and damaging decline of the dollar. So far, this has not happened. Saddam Hussein wanted to use the euro as the currency on which to trade in oil. This angered the Americans and could have beeen a factor in his removal in 2003-2004. More recently, the Russians and Chinese have been talking about diversifying out of the dollar in their growing foreign exchange reserves. So we can see that the international

position of the dollar has weakened progressively. Nevertheless, it continues to deliver benefits to the USA.

Accordingly, there may be strains on the dollar from the transit of Jupiter this fall as well as concerns about its international acceptability. The degree of weakening has to be judged by an analysis of also the faster moving planets and the whole transit-to-transit and transit-to-natal picture, which is time consuming. That said, the value of the dollar could weaken further in coming months and foreign investors could at that time become less willing to shoulder the exchange rate risk of holding US dollar denominated liabilities. At the same time, we could expect that the dollar will show some resilience in terms of its status in the world, including as a reserve currency and a medium of exchange and store of value in international markets, even if the trends will likely continue moderately negative in this regard. So, while some erosion in this may take place, the

fundamental resilience of the dollar, based on the strengths of currency strength in the SAMVA USA chart, should become more apparent after the transit has passed.

The views of list members on this issue are welcomed.

Thor

-- Rajeev Bharolhttp://www.astroquery.comhttp://rajeevbharol.blogspot.com510-565-8260 (Mobile)

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