Guest guest Posted October 29, 2009 Report Share Posted October 29, 2009 Hello list members, The aspect of transit Rahu to transit Saturn has cleared. Still, there is news of a pending improvement in the US economy. Is this really the case. Let's recall first that in the SAMVA USA chart natal Rahu is conjunct the most effective point of the 10th house. This suggests an intrinsic tendency of the US administration (10th house indication) to put a spin on or manipulate things for optimum effect. Also, the aspect of Saturn as 8th lord to Sun as 2nd lord of wealth, suggests the government may focus more on that which it desires in terms of the national wealth than what is really there. Let us thus first read the news story below and then consider how the data is presented and what we would see if we looked at a more traditional presentation of the data. Economy expected to grow in 3Q, heralding recovery AP – October 29, 2009 - 1 hr 4 mins ago WASHINGTON – The economy appears back on its feet after being knocked over by the worst recession since the 1930s. The big question: Will it still be standing after government supports are gone? Many analysts expect the economy returned to growth in the July-September quarter, expanding at a pace of 3.3 percent. If they are right, it would end the streak of four straight quarters of contraction, the first time that's happened on records dating to 1947. http://news./s/ap/20091029/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy Right off we can note that the official presentation of the data is a bit misleading. The government calculates the rate of change from the prior quarter and then adjusts for seasonal influences. This shows the economy is in the process of bottoming out and about to enter a long awaited recovery phase. However, if we look at the data as it is usually presented, in terms of year-over-year growth of real GDP, then the economy will very likely still be shrinking in the third quarter of 2009 relative the same quarter in 2008. See the attached graph, showing on the left axis the level of the Gross Domestic Output in real (constant $) terms and on the right axis the real year-over-year growth rate. Let us assume there is some improvement in the 2nd half of 2009. Even then the economy is not recovering in the traditional sense, in that it will still be shrinking in the 3rd quarter (July-September) and possibly in the 4th quarter as well. For the year as a whole, the economy will contract by almost 2% in real terms. This situation is consistent with the fact that the unemployment rate is still seen to be headed higher, to at least 10% of the labour force. That said, the unemployment rate is also expected to stabilise and then head lower as a recovery becomes more firmly entrenched. So, while there is some improvement in the sense that the deterioration of the economy is in the process of being slowed or stopped, the economy is far from out of the woods yet. In fact, the outlook is highly uncertain and most prognosticators, including the OECD, have recently been predicting a sluggish recovery in the coming year or two. This is consistent with the predictions made for the US economy based on the SAMVA USA chart. In fact, both Professor Choudhry and I have used that very term consistently in our predictions for the US economy since last year. Thor 1 of 1 Photo(s) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted November 1, 2009 Report Share Posted November 1, 2009 Hello list, For balance, I recall the strong Sun in the 7th house of the SAMVA USA chart. The Sun represents the highest level of the government and not just the President. The following prediction by a senior government official is refreshing in its candor. Geithner: Recovery could be 'a little choppy' AP- October 31, 2009 - 21 mins ago WASHINGTON – Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says the economic recovery "could be a little choppy" and it's going to take a while. Geithner told NBC's "Meet the Press" that bringing back jobs and confidence of investors will be the real test of recovery. He declined to say whether the recession is over, saying economist will figure that out years from now. http://news./s/ap/20091101/ap_on_bi_ge/us_geithner_economy The forecast is in line with the expectation based on the SAMVA USA chart. Thor Cosmologer <cosmologerSAMVA Sent: Sat, October 31, 2009 8:33:35 AMRe: US economy in recovery mode? Hello list, I have been informed that the noted US stock market analyst Richard Russel yesterday said the following regarding the new official statistic showing the US GDP grew 3.5 per cent during the 3rd quarter of 2009: "Most analysts took this to mean that the recession is over. But is it real GDP growth or has the GDP been manipulated by government stimulus? I don't take government announcements seriously, I take the action of the stock market seriously." After decades of studying the market, Mr. Russel doesn't take government announcements very seriously! Rather, he observes the financial market development, which turned more negative as the month progressed. This sentiment, which has been expressed by quite a number of people, is in line with the interpretation of the placement of Rahu in the MEP of the 10th house of the SAMVA USA chart. Thor Cosmologer <cosmologersamva Sent: Thu, October 29, 2009 9:28:10 AM US economy in recovery mode? [1 Attachment] [Attachment(s) from Cosmologer included below] Hello list members, The aspect of transit Rahu to transit Saturn has cleared. Still, there is news of a pending improvement in the US economy. Is this really the case. Let's recall first that in the SAMVA USA chart natal Rahu is conjunct the most effective point of the 10th house. This suggests an intrinsic tendency of the US administration (10th house indication) to put a spin on or manipulate things for optimum effect. Also, the aspect of Saturn as 8th lord to Sun as 2nd lord of wealth, suggests the government may focus more on that which it desires in terms of the national wealth than what is really there. Let us thus first read the news story below and then consider how the data is presented and what we would see if we looked at a more traditional presentation of the data. Economy expected to grow in 3Q, heralding recovery AP – October 29, 2009 - 1 hr 4 mins ago WASHINGTON – The economy appears back on its feet after being knocked over by the worst recession since the 1930s. The big question: Will it still be standing after government supports are gone? Many analysts expect the economy returned to growth in the July-September quarter, expanding at a pace of 3.3 percent. If they are right, it would end the streak of four straight quarters of contraction, the first time that's happened on records dating to 1947. http://news./s/ap/20091029/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy Right off we can note that the official presentation of the data is a bit misleading. The government calculates the rate of change from the prior quarter and then adjusts for seasonal influences. This shows the economy is in the process of bottoming out and about to enter a long awaited recovery phase. However, if we look at the data as it is usually presented, in terms of year-over-year growth of real GDP, then the economy will very likely still be shrinking in the third quarter of 2009 relative the same quarter in 2008. See the attached graph, showing on the left axis the level of the Gross Domestic Output in real (constant $) terms and on the right axis the real year-over-year growth rate. Let us assume there is some improvement in the 2nd half of 2009. Even then the economy is not recovering in the traditional sense, in that it will still be shrinking in the 3rd quarter (July-September) and possibly in the 4th quarter as well. For the year as a whole, the economy will contract by almost 2% in real terms. This situation is consistent with the fact that the unemployment rate is still seen to be headed higher, to at least 10% of the labour force. That said, the unemployment rate is also expected to stabilise and then head lower as a recovery becomes more firmly entrenched. So, while there is some improvement in the sense that the deterioration of the economy is in the process of being slowed or stopped, the economy is far from out of the woods yet. In fact, the outlook is highly uncertain and most prognosticators, including the OECD, have recently been predicting a sluggish recovery in the coming year or two. This is consistent with the predictions made for the US economy based on the SAMVA USA chart. In fact, both Professor Choudhry and I have used that very term consistently in our predictions for the US economy since last year. Thor Attachment(s) from Cosmologer 1 of 1 Photo(s) US Economy.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted November 6, 2009 Report Share Posted November 6, 2009 Hello dear list members, In the following link to the new OECD Leading Indicator report: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/55/51/44025808.pdf a positive recovery path is shown for the US and other economies. Thor Cosmologer <cosmologersamva Sent: Thu, October 29, 2009 9:28:10 AMUS economy in recovery mode? Hello list members, The aspect of transit Rahu to transit Saturn has cleared. Still, there is news of a pending improvement in the US economy. Is this really the case. Let's recall first that in the SAMVA USA chart natal Rahu is conjunct the most effective point of the 10th house. This suggests an intrinsic tendency of the US administration (10th house indication) to put a spin on or manipulate things for optimum effect. Also, the aspect of Saturn as 8th lord to Sun as 2nd lord of wealth, suggests the government may focus more on that which it desires in terms of the national wealth than what is really there. Let us thus first read the news story below and then consider how the data is presented and what we would see if we looked at a more traditional presentation of the data. Economy expected to grow in 3Q, heralding recovery AP – October 29, 2009 - 1 hr 4 mins ago WASHINGTON – The economy appears back on its feet after being knocked over by the worst recession since the 1930s. The big question: Will it still be standing after government supports are gone? Many analysts expect the economy returned to growth in the July-September quarter, expanding at a pace of 3.3 percent. If they are right, it would end the streak of four straight quarters of contraction, the first time that's happened on records dating to 1947. http://news./s/ap/20091029/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy Right off we can note that the official presentation of the data is a bit misleading. The government calculates the rate of change from the prior quarter and then adjusts for seasonal influences. This shows the economy is in the process of bottoming out and about to enter a long awaited recovery phase. However, if we look at the data as it is usually presented, in terms of year-over-year growth of real GDP, then the economy will very likely still be shrinking in the third quarter of 2009 relative the same quarter in 2008. See the attached graph, showing on the left axis the level of the Gross Domestic Output in real (constant $) terms and on the right axis the real year-over-year growth rate. Let us assume there is some improvement in the 2nd half of 2009. Even then the economy is not recovering in the traditional sense, in that it will still be shrinking in the 3rd quarter (July-September) and possibly in the 4th quarter as well. For the year as a whole, the economy will contract by almost 2% in real terms. This situation is consistent with the fact that the unemployment rate is still seen to be headed higher, to at least 10% of the labour force. That said, the unemployment rate is also expected to stabilise and then head lower as a recovery becomes more firmly entrenched. So, while there is some improvement in the sense that the deterioration of the economy is in the process of being slowed or stopped, the economy is far from out of the woods yet. In fact, the outlook is highly uncertain and most prognosticators, including the OECD, have recently been predicting a sluggish recovery in the coming year or two. This is consistent with the predictions made for the US economy based on the SAMVA USA chart. In fact, both Professor Choudhry and I have used that very term consistently in our predictions for the US economy since last year. Thor 1 of 1 File(s) OECD LI_Nov2009.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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